1.到底是哪些板块发动了牛市？ 去年，有一波酣畅淋漓的行情，摆在我面前，我没有珍惜。等到后知后觉时，才后悔莫及。人世间最痛苦的 事，莫过于此。如果上天再给我一次机会，我会对牛市说，我吃定你！如果一定要说一个大盘点位，我希望 是4500点！ 本文解决以下三个问题，让你看完之后心不慌： 先做个统计，对本轮牛市有个大概了解。 上图中，银行板块（国有+股份制）加起来的市值贡献超过了1.68万亿元，贡献占比超10%； 医疗领域（化学制药+医疗服务+器械）的市值贡献超过了1.44万亿元，贡献占比接近10%。 这两个板块是这波牛市的主要推手，但之前小二说过，银行和医疗是绝大部分投资者的认知盲区。 此外，前21个行业贡献了70%的市值增量，结合前面说的"强者恒强"逻辑，后续我们参与这些行业的炒作，问 题应该不大。 跌破去年9月24日收盘价的公司有195家；突破去年10月8日高点的公司有3451家，其中今年录得20%以上涨幅 的，有2424家；未突破去年10月8日高点的公司有1145家，其中今年录得20%以上涨幅的，有165家。 什么？21个板块很多？其实就七大类，具体如下图所示。 2.周末情绪爆点的逻辑是什么？ 也就是说，能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share market has seen the Shanghai Composite Index reach a peak of 3704.77 points, approaching the ten-year high of 3731.69 points set on February 18, 2021, marking a significant milestone for the market and investors [1] Historical Context - The Shanghai Composite Index has only surpassed its ten-year high twice in the past 35 years, first on February 17, 2000, and then on December 14, 2006 [2][4] - The first instance in 2000 led to a significant sell-off, with a 3.1% drop on the same day, followed by a period of volatility before a sustained upward trend lasting nearly 1.5 years, culminating in a peak of 2245.42 points on June 14, 2001, representing a 27.86% increase from the previous high [4][6] - The second instance in 2006 resulted in a strong upward trend, with the index reaching 6124.04 points by October 16, 2007, a maximum increase of 172.73% from the previous high [6] Trading Volume Trends - Prior to both instances of reaching a ten-year high, the daily trading volume of the Shanghai Composite Index had already set historical records, indicating strong market interest [6][8] Market Behavior Pre and Post New Highs - In the three months leading up to the ten-year high in December 2006, the market exhibited structural behavior, with the top ten performing industry indices averaging a 62.25% increase, while the bottom ten indices averaged a decline of 0.54% [8][9] - After the ten-year high was reached, the market shifted to a broad-based rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 30.71% and most industry indices outperforming the index itself [9][10] Correlation Analysis - A negative correlation of -0.35 was observed between the performance of industry indices in the three months before and after the ten-year high, suggesting that industries that performed well prior may lag in the subsequent period [9] - Notably, the securities industry showed strong performance both before and after the new high, with increases of 73.44% and 86.15%, respectively [9] Extended Analysis - The trends observed in the three-month periods before and after the ten-year high also held true for the six-month periods, although the correlation between industry performance before and after diminished to 0.01, indicating a shift in market dynamics [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is based on the research reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) to construct a strategy portfolio of industry and theme ETFs [2] - In the week of 20250811, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, games, and semiconductors. In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products like Game ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF, and Satellite ETF, and continue to hold products like Bank ETF, Financial Real Estate ETF, and Gold Stock ETF [2] - As of last weekend, some ETFs and the trading timing signals of the underlying indexes gave daily or weekly risk warnings [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Performance Tracking - During the period from 20250804 to 20250808, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about 2.62%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.41% [3] - From October 14, 2024, to the present, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 7.08%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.79% [3] Future 1 - Week Recommended ETFs (20250811 - 20250815) | Fund Code | ETF Name | Holding Status | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Heavy - Positioned Shenwan II Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800 | Bank ETF | Continue to hold | 151.38 | Joint - stock banks (44.73%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159869 | Game ETF | Transfer in | 73.17 | Games (81.29%) | 1 | 1 | | 588780 | Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF | Transfer in | 2.77 | Semiconductors (95.73%) | 1 | 1 | | 159940 | Financial Real Estate ETF | Continue to hold | 7.99 | Securities (29.12%) | 1 | - 1 | | 517520 | Gold Stock ETF | Continue to hold | 46.34 | Precious metals (41.51%) | 1 | 1 | | 510000 | Central Enterprise ETF | Continue to hold | 1.21 | State - owned large - scale banks (18.11%) | 1 | 1 | | 512690 | Wine ETF | Continue to hold | 152.39 | Baijiu (85.37%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 159206 | ZETF | Transfer in | 1.33 | Military electronics II (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 159786 | VRETF | Transfer in | 1.32 | Optoelectronics (26.64%) | 1 | 1 | | 159652 | Non - ferrous 50 ETF | Transfer in | 5.21 | Industrial metals (49.34%) | 1 | 1 | [9] Near 1 - Week ETF Holdings and Performance (20250804 - 20250808) | Fund Code | Current Holding Status | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Near 1 - Week Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 562550 | - | Green Power ETF | 1.21 | 1.50 | | 512800 | Continue to hold | Bank ETF | 151.38 | 1.99 | | 512690 | Continue to hold | Wine ETF | 152.39 | 1.06 | | 159768 | - | Real Estate ETF | 6.13 | 2.14 | | 159940 | Continue to hold | Financial Real Estate ETF | 7.99 | 1.41 | | 515220 | Transfer out | Coal ETF | 80.20 | 3.78 | | 159996 | Transfer out | Home Appliance ETF | 12.72 | 2.55 | | 510060 | Continue to hold | Central Enterprise ETF | 1.21 | 1.42 | | 516550 | Transfer out | Agricultural ETF | 1.87 | 1.76 | | 517520 | Continue to hold | Gold Stock ETF | 46.34 | 8.91 | | - | ETF Portfolio Average Return | - | - | 2.62 | | 510300 | - | CSI 300 ETF | 3819.72 | 1.21 | | - | ETF Portfolio Excess Return | - | - | 1.41 | [10]

Market Performance - On June 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.07%[3] - Market turnover reached 1.31 trillion, an increase of approximately 130 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Analysis - All sectors except food and beverage saw gains, with pharmaceuticals, military industry, agriculture, and textiles leading the increases[1] - The military and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors have shown significant strength, driven by recent geopolitical events and advancements in clinical research[1] Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.3%[5] - For the first five months of the year, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%[6] Investment Trends - In the first week of June, new fund issuance exceeded 31 billion, with equity funds showing a "high volume, low amount" characteristic, totaling only 5.82 billion[11] - Public REITs' total market value surpassed 200 billion for the first time, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounting for nearly 70% of this total[12][13]

Market Performance - On May 6, A-shares opened high and closed at their daily peak, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.97%[1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.336 trillion yuan, an increase of over 160 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] - More than 4,900 stocks in the two markets rose, indicating a broad-based market rally[1] Sector Trends - Key sectors that performed well included IT services, machinery, communications, electronics, media, electricity, and automobiles[1] - The concept sectors showing significant gains were controlled nuclear fusion, superconductors, rare earth permanent magnets, Huawei Harmony, and optical communication[1] Market Sentiment - The market's resilience against external shocks was highlighted by the positive performance following the May Day holiday, suggesting an increase in risk appetite among investors[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded above the 3,300-point mark, indicating a strengthening market trend[4] Fund Flows - On May 6, net inflows into the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were 20.207 billion yuan and 15.338 billion yuan, respectively[5] - The top three sectors for net inflows were IT services, general equipment, and communication equipment, while the sectors with the largest outflows included city commercial banks, large state-owned banks, and precious metals[5] Economic Indicators - The Caixin China Services PMI fell to 50.7 in April, the lowest in seven months, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity[6] - The number of people entering and exiting the country during the May Day holiday reached 10.896 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%[10] Industry Developments - In Q1 2025, global shipments of large-sized LCD TV panels increased by 11.5% year-on-year, with a total of 63 million units shipped[11] - The average size of LCD TV panels shipped was 49.5 inches, reflecting a trend towards larger screen sizes[11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.59% on April 25[4] - Main capital inflows were noted in the power, software development, and communication equipment sectors, with net inflows of 64.08 billion CNY for Shanghai and 95.24 billion CNY for Shenzhen[5] Policy and Economic Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including potential interest rate cuts and increased fiscal measures to support the economy[6] - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 was reported at 5.4%, indicating a stable economic recovery despite global uncertainties[9] Sector Performance - The power, real estate, home appliance, textile, and internet sectors showed significant gains, while traditional energy sectors like precious metals and chemicals experienced declines[2] - A notable 33.62% year-on-year increase in nationwide rail-sea transport of goods was reported, highlighting growth in logistics[12] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on defensive sectors and investment opportunities mentioned in the recent political bureau meeting, while long-term investments should align with state-supported industries[2] - Institutional research activity surged to 31,000 instances in one month, reflecting a 49% increase, indicating a strong focus on performance-driven sectors[15]