1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The A - share market closed lower with volatility yesterday. The liquidity rally since June is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector, but they lack event catalysts and are in a volatile phase. Traditional economic sectors are in a volatile recovery, and it's hard to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume, volatility, and risk appetite are decreasing, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expected divergence, and US tech stocks pulled back last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower yesterday. The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, achieving a net injection of 115 billion yuan. The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is beneficial to the bond market. The economic outlook for the fourth quarter is stable, the short - term necessity of central bank interest rate cuts is low, and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect disturbs bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to continue the volatile pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: Yesterday, the A - share market was volatile and closed down. The Wind All - A index fell 0.3% with a trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes declined by 0.82% and 0.4% respectively, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes rose by 0.58% and 0.44% respectively. The new - quality productivity themes led by AI have good mid - term profitability expectations but lack short - term catalysts. Traditional economic sectors are in a volatile recovery, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also faced setbacks last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yesterday, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. After the expiration of 195.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, a net injection of 115 billion yuan was achieved. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of sufficient funds, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect disturbs sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH rose 0.45% from 2,997.6 to 3,011.0, the IF increased 0.22% from 4,555.0 to 4,565.2, the IC decreased 0.35% from 7,079.8 to 7,054.8, and the IM dropped 0.73% from 7,351.8 to 7,298.2 [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 0.58% from 3,003.0 to 3,020.3, the CSI 300 increased 0.44% from 4,568.2 to 4,588.3, the CSI 500 decreased 0.40% from 7,151.0 to 7,122.7, and the CSI 1000 dropped 0.82% from 7,448.1 to 7,387.2 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS fell 0.03% from 102.49 to 102.46, the TF decreased 0.04% from 105.92 to 105.88, the T dropped 0.07% from 108.50 to 108.43, and the TL declined 0.38% from 116.53 to 116.09 [3]. 3.3 Market News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised and released the "Guidelines for the Application of Self - regulatory Rules for Funds of the Shanghai Stock Exchange No. 1 - Index Funds (Revised in November 2025)", which came into effect on November 19, 2025. For index funds with non - broad - based stock indexes as underlying indexes, several requirements need to be met, such as the number of constituent securities being no less than 30, the single - constituent security weight not exceeding 15% and the total weight of the top 5 constituent securities not exceeding 60%, etc. [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][9]. 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Charts include the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, and the basis and inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, as well as cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [13][14][19]. 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - Charts show the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [22][23][26]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of fund managers' perspectives and strategies based on their recent quarterly reports, highlighting different investment styles and market outlooks [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Perspectives - Fund managers express varying views on market conditions, with some maintaining optimism about equity assets due to low interest rates and the potential for corporate earnings recovery [17][18]. - Different investment styles are categorized, including deep value, growth value, balanced, and growth styles, each with distinct characteristics and focus areas [19][35][51]. Group 2: Deep Value Style - Deep value managers focus on low valuation metrics such as low P/E ratios and high dividend yields, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [10][12]. - Historical performance shows that this style performed well in 2016-2017 and 2021-2024, while underperforming in 2019-2020 [15][16]. Group 3: Growth Value Style - Growth value managers prioritize companies with strong profitability and stable cash flows, often holding stocks for the long term [20][22]. - Concerns about market risks and valuation levels are noted, with some managers highlighting the extreme valuation disparities across sectors [22][24]. Group 4: Balanced Style - Balanced style managers seek a combination of growth and value, focusing on companies with favorable PEG ratios and exploring opportunities across various sectors [35][36]. - They emphasize the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio while identifying high-quality investment opportunities [40][46]. Group 5: Growth Style - Growth style managers focus on high revenue and earnings growth, often investing in emerging industries such as AI, renewable energy, and technology [51][62]. - The article notes a shift in focus from technology to consumer sectors as the market stabilizes, with an emphasis on identifying companies with strong growth potential [55][58]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued structural opportunities despite potential short-term volatility [40][62]. - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios in response to macroeconomic conditions, focusing on sectors with strong growth prospects and managing risks associated with high valuations [31][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways", and for government bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market oscillated and closed lower yesterday, with TMT performing well and coal and power equipment sectors correcting. The overall market is expected to be range - bound in the short term as the liquidity-driven market since June ended and the focus returns to fundamentals. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery, and overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. - Government bond futures closed higher yesterday. The central bank's actions and economic expectations have a positive impact on the bond market, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market closed down with Wind All - A dropping 0.93% and a trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices all declined. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the tech sector, but they lack catalysts and have entered a sideways trend since November. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. Government Bond Futures - Yesterday, government bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 37 billion yuan. DR001 rose 2BP to 1.53%, and DR007 remained flat at 1.52%. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is positive for the bond market. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On November 18, 2025, IH dropped 0.39% to 2,997.6, IF dropped 0.58% to 4,555.0, IC dropped 0.89% to 7,079.8, and IM dropped 0.58% to 7,351.8 compared to November 17 [3]. Stock Indices - The SSE 50 dropped 0.30% to 3,003.0, the CSI 300 dropped 0.65% to 4,568.2, the CSI 500 dropped 1.17% to 7,151.0, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.00% to 7,448.1 on November 18, 2025, compared to November 17 [3]. Government Bond Futures - On November 18, 2025, TS rose 0.01% to 102.49, TF rose 0.01% to 105.92, T rose 0.01% to 108.50, and TL rose 0.07% to 116.53 compared to November 17 [3] 3. Market News - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, up from 1,947,000 the previous week. The US Federal government shutdown led to a lack of regular weekly data [4]. - China's Foreign Ministry held consultations with Japan's officials. China sternly protested against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on China, urging Japan to retract the remarks and stop causing trouble on China - related issues [4] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective basis trends [6][7][9] Government Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of government bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][14][19] Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][26]

基金分析报告 核心资产基金池 202511：超额稳中有升 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 从赛道龙头、资源禀赋、优秀的商业模式、技术优势四个角度出发，定义 A 股中的 核心资产。赛道龙头需要行业竞争格局相对稳定、且企业市占率较高。资源禀赋指公司拥 有独特的稀缺资源，主要考虑政府补贴稳定高于同行业水平的政府扶持型、和具备优越地 理位置或自然资源的区位优势型企业。优秀的商业模式直观特点即为高盈利能力，即要求 公司过去 12 个季度均拥有稳定的高 ROE 水平。技术优势可以从研发投入过程和毛利率 提升结果来刻画，即希望研发的投入能够实际为企业创造价值。本报告将优选市场当前的 核心资产基金，以供对其有配置需求的投资者参考。 ➢ 核心资产基金池：低波动。2015 年 2 月 2 日至 2025 年 11 月 7 日，基金池年化收 益率为 13.14%，相对于偏股基金指数超额收益为 3.31%，组合年化夏普比率为 0.85。核 心资产组合在大多数年份实现超额收益，但在极致风格行情，如单边成长牛、单一板块领 涨的阶段中，易出现落后情况。 ➢ 超额收益主要源自行业和选股，风格更偏大盘质量。核心资产型基金池超额主要来 自 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with a notable acceleration in the rotation rhythm between and within sectors, including AI, new energy, resource products, and consumer goods, although the sustainability of the upward trend is limited [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the recent wide fluctuations in the A-share market are influenced by both domestic and international factors, including a decline in risk appetite in overseas markets and resistance at the 4000-point level [1][2] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term, with a potential rebalancing of market styles lasting several months, while technology growth sectors like TMT and advanced manufacturing are anticipated to lead index breakthroughs in the longer term [1][3] Market Outlook - The A-share market is likely to continue its oscillation pattern, with rapid sector rotation observed, particularly as funds shift from previously high-performing technology sectors to lower-performing sectors such as resources, consumption, and pharmaceuticals [2][3] - Analysts from various firms indicate that the current market structure reflects a global trend of "rebalancing," with funds moving away from technology stocks due to concerns over AI bubbles and external events impacting risk preferences [2][3] - The investment strategy should focus on structural allocation around themes of "anti-involution" and AI applications, leveraging trends in prosperity, policy direction, and capital flow to achieve excess returns [2][3] Sector Performance - In the context of year-end market style assessments, analysts suggest that sectors that have lagged may perform better during this oscillation phase, with a focus on high-dividend, consumer, and cyclical stocks [3][4] - The technology sector, particularly TMT and advanced manufacturing, is expected to maintain a long-term advantage due to relative profitability and global semiconductor cycles, despite a temporary shift towards value stocks [3][4] - The current market environment is characterized by a high degree of volatility, driven by valuation and expectations, with a potential shift back to technology stocks as the underlying industrial logic strengthens [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guosen Securities highlights an extreme divergence between "old" and "new" assets in the market, emphasizing that high growth does not necessarily equate to high investment returns, and that finding fundamentally sound valuation opportunities can lead to significant returns [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Divergence - Since 2025, "small new stocks" have significantly outperformed "old stocks," with the "small new stock" portfolio rising by 183.8% compared to just 3.9% for "old stocks" [2]. - From April 7, 2025, "small new stocks" surged over 200%, while "old stocks" only increased by 13.6% [2]. - The "small new ETF" has risen by 53.1% since 2025, while the "old ETF" has only seen a 13.1% increase [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Activity - As of October 24, the PE ratio for "small new" sectors like electronics and computing is at the 99th percentile since 2019, while "old" sectors like real estate and liquor are at the 56th percentile [8]. - The trading volume for "small new" sectors has increased to 33%, while "old" sectors have dropped to below 2.8%, indicating a significant divergence in market activity [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report stresses the importance of not only selecting high-quality stocks ("buy good") but also ensuring they are purchased at favorable valuations ("buy well") to achieve high returns [11]. - Historical examples illustrate that higher growth does not guarantee better returns, as seen in the comparison between IBM and New Jersey Standard Oil from 1950 to 2003 [11][12]. - The banking sector has shown resilience, with a decline of only 3.9% compared to a 31.1% drop in the overall market, highlighting the potential for finding undervalued stocks with solid fundamentals [15]. Group 4: Market Trends and Seasonal Effects - The current market is characterized by a "small new stock" era, but there are seasonal opportunities for "old stocks," particularly in real estate, liquor, and brokerage sectors [20][29]. - Historical bull markets have shown that each cycle has a leading sector that aligns with prevailing economic trends, with AI and technology being the current focus [21]. - Seasonal effects suggest that value sectors may outperform in the fourth quarter, with historical data indicating a 64% success rate for value over growth during this period [23].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the potential for a significant style switch in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the strong performance of mainstream stocks in Q3 may not continue into Q4, indicating a high probability of style switching [1][9]. - Historical analysis shows that in bull markets driven by liquidity, style switching is more pronounced compared to fundamental-driven bull markets, which tend to have less volatility and fewer style changes [1][2]. - The report introduces an "A-share high-cut low" index, which indicates that low-positioned stocks are becoming more effective, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [1][2]. Group 2 - The report notes that the current market is experiencing a "high-cut low" pricing process, characterized by high-positioned stocks declining while low-positioned stocks are rapidly rotating, indicating that a clear style switch has not yet formed [2]. - The mid-term style switch is highlighted, with a focus on the transition from value to growth stocks, marking the beginning of a new cycle in 2025 [2][24]. - Short-term observations indicate that the internal rotation of high and low-positioned technology stocks lacks clear patterns, relying more on industrial logic rather than trading sentiment [2][3]. Group 3 - The report discusses the relationship between A-share technology stocks and Hong Kong technology stocks, noting that the relative excess returns of the ChiNext index compared to the Hang Seng Tech index have peaked and are now declining [3][28]. - It highlights the difficulty in breaking through the high differentiation between technology and cyclical styles, with recent PPI stabilization making it challenging for these styles to diverge significantly [3][31]. - The report also mentions the convergence of M2 and social financing growth rates, indicating that large-cap stocks are currently outperforming small-cap stocks [3][36]. Group 4 - The report evaluates the potential transition from a "liquidity bull" to a "fundamental bull" in the fourth quarter, tracking signals related to geopolitical and economic cycles [3][4]. - It suggests that the upcoming APEC meeting and the end of the new round of US-China tariff exemptions may lead to a more stable internal and external environment, which is crucial for economic growth [4]. - The report anticipates that the true style switch may not occur until November, when low-positioned cyclical stocks could become the focus of investment strategies [4].

Market Performance - In September 2025, the average return of actively managed equity funds was 5.6%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 3.2% to 4641 points. Over 75% of the funds achieved positive returns this month [9][21]. - Growth funds performed the best with a median return of 8.5%. Value style funds faced pressure with an overall negative return, while sector-themed funds benefited from the non-ferrous metal market, achieving a maximum return of 31.3% [21][24]. - The performance of industry-themed funds showed significant differentiation, with high-end manufacturing, cyclical, and technology funds performing well. The top-performing technology fund was Yongying Technology Smart Selection A, with a return of 194.5% [24][29]. Equity Fund Multi-Strategy Overview - The report analyzed 2493 actively managed equity funds that met specific criteria, including a minimum scale of 100 million and a stock allocation exceeding 50% [32]. - The average goodness of fit for public funds relative to a single index was 0.78, indicating a slight increase in strategy concentration compared to the previous month [33]. - The distribution of equity fund strategies showed an increase in cyclical style, with a downward shift in investment strategy market capitalization. The most significant inflows were into the CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 [39]. Fund Rating Changes - The report noted an increase in high-rated funds, with 39 AAA-rated funds and 99 AA+ rated funds, reflecting an overall improvement in fund ratings due to favorable market conditions. The proportion of value and small-cap high-performing funds increased from 16% to 18% [45][46]. - High-rated funds demonstrated excellent overall performance and robust investment management capabilities, showing good alpha sustainability in both short-term and long-term performance [52]. Outstanding Fund Monthly Tracking - The report identified 10 funds that exhibited significant performance improvement and management optimization, reflecting their investment strategies' adaptability to the current market environment [62]. - New funds with high return potential and differentiated competitive advantages were highlighted, with 7 new funds identified this month, primarily in quantitative strategies [60].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant divergence in performance post-holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing the 3900-point mark and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% on Friday, marking its largest single-day decline since April 7 [1] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased to 2.60 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [1] Economic Data - Holiday consumption demonstrated resilience in domestic demand, although per capita travel spending decreased year-on-year, reflecting limited consumer willingness [1] - The tightening of U.S.-China relations has led to a reduction in market risk appetite, with potential short-term impacts on domestic equity markets [2] Industry Insights - The cyclical sectors led the market gains, while technology and growth sectors lagged behind [1] - The short-term market style is expected to rebalance, with a focus on sectors showing performance, particularly in technology, AI, and domestic alternatives like semiconductors and energy storage [3] - Non-bank financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and financial IT are anticipated to see improvements in both valuation and performance [3] Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is expected to provide clear guidance for industrial development and economic restructuring, serving as a significant policy catalyst for the fourth quarter [2] - Despite the current market challenges, there remains a positive outlook for incremental capital inflows into the equity market, supported by stable economic fundamentals and a potential Fed rate cut cycle [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a high-level adjustment, with profit-taking occurring in previously hot sectors such as artificial intelligence and solid-state batteries, although overall market activity remains robust with more stocks rising than falling [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the market close, the number of rising stocks (2774) exceeded the number of falling stocks (2536), and over 70 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating sustained high levels of market activity [1] - Despite the high-level adjustment, the sell-off is primarily concentrated in previously hot sectors, suggesting a rotation rather than a broad market decline [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - According to a report from Industrial Securities, after a period of consolidation since September, the A-share market is poised for a new upward momentum, with expectations for a "red October" [1] - Global monetary and fiscal easing expectations have positively influenced risk assets worldwide, including U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, creating a favorable macro environment for the A-share market post-holiday [1] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports in October are expected to shift market focus towards sectors with strong performance indicators, particularly in AI, advanced manufacturing, cyclical industries, and finance, as previous valuation concerns in hot sectors are gradually resolved [1] - The latter part of October will see a series of policy catalysts that could elevate market risk appetite and provide more opportunities for investment [1]