2026年伊始，A股在震荡中呈现结构性机会，公募基金新一轮布局已然展开。 多家头部机构发布的最新投资展望认为，在经济温和复苏与产业升级加速的背景下，人工智能、半导 体、消费等多个板块均有结构性机遇。 2026年预计仍有较多增量资金流入 大成基金首席权益策略分析师耿睿坦认为，从企业盈利层面看，制造业投资和A股资本开支收缩推动供 需再平衡，为盈利提供支撑；国内需求端以财政为牵引，特别国债、专项债的投向结构变化，将影响A 股定价。海外经济体财政扩张，叠加相关地区再工业化进程，将带来明确的外需贝塔。 从微观流动性上看，耿睿坦表示，当前A股处于总量流动性扩张、风险偏好提升的环境，后续需关注财 政货币政策；2025年A股延续资金净流入，主力增量为险资、融资等，个人投资者以高净值、高风险偏 好人群为主。预计2026年仍有较多增量资金流入。 中长期来看，国泰基金基金经理胡松认为，人民币国际化进程推进，以及政策持续鼓励长期资金入市， 市场仍具备向上动力。无风险利率下行、资本市场改革提速、中长期宏观预期修复，对市场形成较强支 撑。 展望2026年A股表现，华夏基金表示，市场向好的中期趋势有望在深化与平衡中延续。从宏观环境看， 政 ...

Group 1 - A-shares are presenting structural opportunities amidst fluctuations, with public funds initiating a new round of investments in sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and consumption due to moderate economic recovery and accelerated industrial upgrades [1] - The manufacturing investment and A-share capital expenditure contraction are driving supply-demand rebalancing, providing support for corporate profits, while fiscal changes in special bonds will impact A-share pricing [2] - The market is expected to continue attracting significant incremental capital inflows in 2026, with major contributions from insurance funds and financing, while individual investors are primarily high-net-worth individuals with high-risk preferences [2] Group 2 - The AI sector is a focal point for public fund strategies, with expectations for continued strong performance in the AI industry chain in the first half of 2026, driven by breakthroughs in AI model capabilities and significant growth in annual recurring revenue from AI-native applications [4] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid changes driven by AI large models, with a focus on domestic production and R&D, while non-AI semiconductor sectors may face pressure [5] - The consumption sector is anticipated to see a resurgence in investment opportunities in 2026, driven by the release of wealth effects and an upgrade in high-end and service consumption demands [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of capturing investment opportunities aligned with China's 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [1][2] Investment Strategies - The investment landscape for 2026 is shaped by the "14th Five-Year Plan," which serves as a guiding framework for strategic investments, emphasizing high-quality development and innovation [2] - Key investment opportunities are identified in three main sectors: traditional industries (e.g., chemicals, shipbuilding), emerging industries (e.g., AI, energy storage), and frontier technologies (e.g., embodied intelligence, nuclear fusion) [2] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are expected to experience significant growth, with the total amount of License-out agreements projected to exceed $121.6 billion by 2025, doubling from 2024 [3] - The introduction of AI models is anticipated to shorten drug development cycles and enhance success rates, leading to a revaluation of the innovative drug sector [3] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed positively, with major investment banks highlighting the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy, making it a preferred choice for asset allocation [4][5] - The analysis of Hong Kong tech assets reveals two main investment themes: a return to EPS growth and cash flow recovery, alongside a focus on leading internet platforms and emerging industries like smart driving [5] AI Industry Insights - AI is positioned as a transformative force comparable to previous industrial revolutions, with significant growth potential as applications become more widespread [6] - The commercialization of AI applications, particularly in smart driving and robotics, is expected to gain momentum, presenting investment opportunities in related companies [6] Renewable Energy Sector - The renewable energy sector is forecasted to continue its upward trend, with significant opportunities in lithium battery technology and new materials, particularly solid-state batteries [7] - The chemical industry is also expected to see a recovery in profitability, driven by demand growth and supply-side reforms [7] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The financial and real estate sectors are showing signs of recovery, with a rebound in second-hand housing transactions and improved profitability for insurance companies [8] - Investment opportunities are emerging in quality real estate firms and banks with strong wealth management capabilities [8] Consumer Sector Trends - The consumer sector is experiencing a shift, with new growth areas such as smart home products and outdoor lifestyle gaining traction [11] - The changing demographics and consumer preferences are expected to drive growth in sectors like travel, healthcare, and wellness [11] Fixed Income Investment Strategies - The fixed income market is anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on short-term and medium-term bond funds for liquidity and steady growth [14] - The overall bond market is expected to exhibit a fluctuating pattern, influenced by monetary policy and economic data [14]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "Mainline Industry Combination" which is constructed based on the alpha performance of heavy stocks held by industry-focused funds and their commonality in industry distribution. The model identifies high alpha industry-focused funds by calculating the monthly excess returns of their heavy stocks relative to their respective industry indices, synthesizing monthly alpha values, and applying a linear time decay weighted scoring system to select the top 20% of funds. It then verifies consensus at the industry level by analyzing the concentration of these selected funds in specific industries, determining potential mainline industries for investment[28][29][30] - The report evaluates the "Mainline Industry Combination" model as effective in capturing core market trends during clear industry cycles, such as food and beverage in 2016, pharmaceuticals in 2019-2020, and TMT in 2024-2025. However, its performance is limited during periods of rapid industry rotation or unclear market mainlines due to signal bias or increased empty positions[36][39][42] - The backtesting results of the "Mainline Industry Combination" model show an annualized return of 20.91% from 2016 to January 2026, with an annualized excess return of 14.62% compared to equity-biased fund indices. The model demonstrates high annual win rates, particularly during clear industry trend periods, but faces challenges in accumulating excess returns during rapid market rotations[36][38][39] - The report introduces another quantitative model named "Industry Rotation Fund Combination," which is constructed by identifying non-industry-focused funds with high industry turnover rates. The model calculates the turnover rate of fund holdings by comparing the proportion of heavy stocks in different industries across consecutive periods, and selects the top 30% of funds with the highest turnover rates. Further, it uses factor backtesting to identify funds with high dynamic returns and small-cap stock preferences, forming a combination of the top 10 funds with the highest scores[61][64][68] - The "Industry Rotation Fund Combination" model is evaluated as highly adaptable to volatile markets with frequent industry rotations, complementing the "Mainline Industry Combination" model. It performs better in periods lacking clear market mainlines, such as 2018 and 2023, by actively switching industries to adapt to changing market trends[68][69][70] - The backtesting results of the "Industry Rotation Fund Combination" model show an annualized return of 15.05% from 2016 to January 2026, with an annualized excess return of 8.60% compared to equity-biased fund indices. The model demonstrates strong adaptability in volatile markets, achieving higher excess returns during periods of rapid industry rotation[68][69][70] - The report combines the two strategies, "Mainline Industry Combination" and "Industry Rotation Fund Combination," to form a comprehensive model named "Capturing Industry Opportunities Combination." This model adjusts its strategy based on market liquidity changes, using the monthly change in the average daily trading volume of the CSI 800 Index over the past 200 trading days as a leading indicator. When market liquidity expands, the mainline strategy is preferred, while the rotation strategy is favored during liquidity contraction. The combined model achieves an annualized return of 19.61% and an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.77, with an annualized excess return of 13.32% compared to equity-biased fund indices[72][73][76]

证券研究报告 主动超额延续，固收增强突围 ——公募基金重点产品/策略回顾与展望 证券分析师 | 陈 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 2026年1月27日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 报告摘要 2 • ETF回顾与展望：被动权益基金规模持续扩张，但增速有所放缓。资金流向方面，2025年资金由宽基流向行业主题ETF，具体来看2025年科技主 题ETF资金净流入额居前，其次为金融地产和周期主题ETF，伴随热门主题行情，热门概念主题ETF轮番吸引资金流入。2026年开年以来卫星/商 业航天、有色、AI主题ETF大幅净流入。参考美国共同基金发展历程，ETF发展趋势仍将延续，被动产品仍有发展空间。政策方面，优化了产品 注册与基准设置机制，通过一系列调降费率的举措，助力ETF充分发挥低费率、高透明度的工具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 experienced a structural trend with technology growth as a core theme, particularly in artificial intelligence-related sectors. Looking ahead to 2026, public funds anticipate a market driven by fundamentals, with technology growth remaining a key investment focus [1][8]. Summary by Sections 2025 A-share Market Overview - The A-share market in 2025 was characterized by a clear rotation of concept sectors, with major themes alternating and a rapid iteration of hotspots. Over 90% of concept indices saw an increase, with the synchronous reluctance motor achieving the highest growth at 165.05%, followed by optical communication modules at 156.02% [11]. 2026 Investment Outlook - Public funds predict a fundamental-driven market in 2026, with technology growth sectors still viewed as the main investment line. HSBC Jintrust Fund suggests a potential market rebalancing, shifting from TMT to lower-positioned industries with profit recovery potential. Investors focusing on safety margins should consider midstream manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [9][11]. Sector-Specific Insights - CITIC Prudential Fund indicates that a solid growth style may persist throughout the year, but broad market rallies may end. Companies with genuine technological barriers and commercialization capabilities in AI applications, domestic substitution, and overseas expansion are expected to attract market attention due to their high growth potential [12]. - Zhongjia Fund emphasizes that technology, particularly AI, remains a focus for aggressive sectors in 2026, combining short-term performance with long-term narratives. Other sectors of interest include event-driven stocks and stable, defensive attributes in Hong Kong dividends, finance, agriculture, and precious metals [12].

Research Conclusion - The report remains optimistic about the trading opportunities of convertible bonds, expecting a sideways shock and a slight strengthening in the equity market, with the market shifting from a two - end trend of technology + dividends to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - This week, the ChiNext and STAR Market drove the small and medium - cap stocks stronger, and convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The high - priced equity - like bonds continued to rise. The 100 - yuan premium rate oscillated between 30% - 34% as previously predicted and was difficult to break through the previous high. Although the current cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, there are still trading opportunities under the optimistic expectation of the equity market [6][9]. - The strengthening factors of the equity market this week include the continuous popularity of the commercial space and optical module sectors, the strengthening of metal prices, and the significant increase in the share of CSI A500 ETF. After the uncertain events are settled, the market starts to rise with oscillations and the sentiment turns positive. The subsequent equity market will be in a sideways shock and slightly strengthen, and the market trend will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views - Driven by the equity market, convertible bonds broke through the previous high, and the valuation rose and then fell. The 100 - yuan premium rate oscillated between 30% - 34% and was difficult to break through the previous high. Despite the low cost - performance and small - scale redemption behavior, the trading opportunities of convertible bonds are still promising under the optimistic equity market [9]. - The equity market tried to break through upward again this week. With the settlement of uncertain events, the market started to rise with oscillations. The subsequent equity market will be in a sideways shock and slightly strengthen, and the market trend will shift to mid - cap blue - chips in industries such as cycles, consumption, and manufacturing [9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review 2.1 Market Overall Performance - This week, the equity market was strong, with all broad - based indexes rising. The CSI 500 rose 4.03%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.90%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%. In terms of industries, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and power equipment led the rise, while beauty care, social services, and banks led the decline. The average daily trading volume increased by 210.457 billion yuan to 1.96 trillion yuan [12]. 2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, Good Performance of High - priced and Small - cap Convertible Bonds - This week, convertible bonds rose significantly, the 100 - yuan premium rate rose and then fell, and the average daily trading volume increased significantly to 78.563 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%, the parity center rose 0.4% to 101.7 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate rose 1.3% to 32.4%. High - priced and small - cap convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated and double - low convertible bonds performed weakly [6][19].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reverted to its previous state before late October, but the upward potential remains constrained. The only industry showing short-term upward movement is optical connectivity, while concerns about the decline in capital expenditure among leading US tech companies in 2026 persist, impacting the AI industry chain [2][3]. Group 1: Market Environment and Trends - Since late November, the macro environment for the A-share market has "reverted," reflecting the characteristics seen before late October. However, the upward space remains limited, with only optical connectivity showing potential for upward breakthroughs [2][3]. - The expectation for stable growth has been adjusted downward, and the anticipated return of the Federal Reserve's easing policies has led to a resurgence in optical connectivity, while other tech growth sectors are experiencing a rebound [2][3]. - The market is currently in a high-level oscillation phase, with the structural characteristics reverting to those observed before late October [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The core idea of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference is to "practice internal skills to cope with external challenges," with a focus on maintaining policy momentum in 2024 and potential marginal improvements in 2026 [5][6]. - Key policy points include addressing issues related to development and transformation, emphasizing quality and efficiency, stimulating domestic demand, and promoting technological innovation in key regions [6][7]. - The market anticipates that if economic results improve in the first half of 2026, additional efforts to stabilize growth in the second half are likely [5][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market," with the first stage (tech structural bull) already at a high level, and the market currently in a quarterly high-level oscillation phase [7][8]. - The first half of 2026 is expected to favor cyclical and value styles, while the second half may see a comprehensive bull market driven by fundamental improvements and technological trends [7][8]. - Spring market trends are expected to focus on small-scale opportunities, particularly in optical connectivity and other tech sectors, with potential for new high-level oscillation phases [8].

Market Overview - The market opened higher and saw the ChiNext Index rise over 3% during the day, closing with a gain of 2.6% [1] - The total trading volume exceeded 2 trillion, with over 3,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets showing gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39% [1] Economic and Sector Insights - The market is refocusing on fundamental logic as liquidity conditions since June have stabilized, with optimistic growth expectations for AI and technology sectors [1] - Hardware manufacturing in the tech sector is experiencing significant price increase expectations due to supply-demand mismatches, indicating strong mid-term profitability [1] - Traditional economic sectors, particularly consumption and cyclical themes, are still in a recovery phase, making it difficult for them to enter a bull market in the short term [1] International Market Dynamics - Overseas tech stocks show mixed expectations, with Nvidia providing strong earnings guidance while Google's upgraded model raises questions about the profitability of AI applications [1] - The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship and potential unexpected interest rate cuts in 2026 could continue to support the tech sector [1] Bond Market Analysis - The 30-year bond futures contract fell by 0.29%, while the 10-year contract rose by 0.02% [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 122.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a stable interest rate of 1.4% [2] - The overall funding environment remains loose, but expectations for interest rate cuts are low, leading to a slight upward trend in bond yields [2] Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices in London showed weak fluctuations, with the gold-silver ratio around 72.2 [3] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in December [3] - There are concerns about technical pullback risks in silver, platinum, and palladium due to crowded long positions, which may lead to larger price adjustments compared to gold [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in the A-share market, indicating a continuation of volume contraction and a rotation of themes, with market participants awaiting new guiding signals [3][11]. - The A-share market saw a slight increase in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the CSI 300 by 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, indicating a stronger performance in growth styles compared to value styles [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 16,870 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous week, reflecting a cautious market sentiment as it approaches significant policy meetings [11]. Group 2 - The non-bank financial sector is influenced by the recent notification from the financial regulatory authority, which aims to encourage insurance funds to invest more in specific equity assets by adjusting risk factors [4][12]. - The commercial aerospace sector has shown active performance due to recent event-driven catalysts, with significant developments in rocket launches and tests, suggesting a potential shift from emotional to logical investment strategies [4][12][13]. - Precious metals, particularly silver, have experienced a rapid price increase due to global liquidity recovery and supply-demand dynamics, with long-term trends expected to be influenced by the narrative of shrinking dollar credit [4][13]. Group 3 - The public fund market is undergoing a transformation with the introduction of new performance assessment guidelines aimed at correcting past issues of short-term incentives and soft accountability, promoting a focus on value creation and high-quality development [4][14]. - The guidelines emphasize a core assessment system based on investment returns, aiming to align the interests of fund managers with long-term returns for investors [14]. Group 4 - The active equity fund indices showed positive performance, with the Active Stock Fund Selection Index rising by 1.64% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 15.40% since inception [5]. - The Value Stock Fund Selection Index increased by 1.62%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.96% since inception, while the Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index rose by 1.00%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 9.27% [6][7]. - The Growth Stock Fund Selection Index saw a smaller increase of 0.64%, with a cumulative excess return of 13.45%, while the Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index decreased by 1.73%, but still recorded a cumulative excess return of 21.62% [8][9].