Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current Middle East situation dominates the global financial market. With Trump issuing a 48 - hour warning to Iran and Iran's strong response, the military stand - off in the Strait of Hormuz is escalating. The short - term precious metals are expected to continue to be under pressure. However, if the US - Iran conflict persists, it will stimulate the dual attributes of gold as a safe - haven and anti - inflation asset, and the long - term trend of precious metals remains unchanged. Close attention should be paid to the changes in the US - Iran situation [4][11] - Last week, precious metal prices dropped significantly. The main reasons are that the US - Iran conflict led to a surge in energy prices, intensifying inflation expectations, and Trump's 48 - hour ultimatum to Iran increased market liquidity risks, suppressing precious metals. Additionally, the Fed's March interest - rate meeting sent a hawkish signal, the latest inflation data rebounded unexpectedly, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts was significantly postponed, also putting pressure on precious metals [5][8] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - The prices of various precious metals in major markets dropped last week. For example, SHFE gold closed at 1039.22 yuan/gram, down 93.78 yuan or 8.28%; COMEX gold closed at 4492.00 dollars/ounce, down 531.10 dollars or 10.57%; SHFE silver closed at 17625 yuan/kilogram, down 4631 yuan or 20.81% [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US - Iran conflict has lasted for over 20 days, spreading to the entire Middle East and escalating. Trump demands that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and threatens to destroy its power plants. Iran responds that if its fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, the US and its allies' energy infrastructure, information technology systems, and desalination facilities in the region will be targeted. The Pentagon is reported to be preparing to deploy ground troops to Iran, and the US is considering occupying or blockading Kharg Island. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz for a long time, energy prices will remain high, further pushing up inflation [5][8] - The Fed's March interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, and raised the inflation expectation. The economic forecast shows that the Fed may cut interest rates once this year. Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. European Central Bank officials have sent hawkish signals, and major financial institutions expect 2 - 3 interest - rate hikes by the ECB this year [9] 3. Important Data Information - The US February PPI was 3.4% year - on - year, and the core PPI was 3.9%, exceeding market expectations, increasing inflation pressure and further squeezing the Fed's interest - rate cut space. War factors may further intensify inflation pressure [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8000 to 205,000, a new low this year, indicating the resilience of the US labor market [12] - The central banks of the eurozone, the UK, and Japan maintained their interest rates but warned of the impact of rising oil prices on inflation [12] - Trump demanded that Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours on the social platform "Truth Social" [12] 4. Relevant Data Charts - The gold total持仓 of ETF was 1056.99 tons on March 20, 2026, down 14.57 tons from last week. The silver持仓 of ishare was 15248.91 tons on March 20, 2026, down 211.27 tons from last month [13] - For gold futures, on March 17, 2026, non - commercial long positions were 215,961, non - commercial short positions were 56,092, and non - commercial net long positions were 159,869, a decrease of 3263 from last week. For silver futures, on March 17, 2026, non - commercial long positions were 31,125, non - commercial short positions were 9244, and non - commercial net long positions were 21,881, a decrease of 2697 from last week [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent sharp decline in international gold prices, which fell below the critical threshold of $4500 per ounce, marking a weekly drop of 10.49%, the largest since March 1983. The decline is attributed to macroeconomic factors overshadowing gold's traditional safe-haven appeal, including rising global inflation, high interest rates, and a strengthening dollar [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of March 21, the London spot gold price dropped significantly from a high of approximately $5040 per ounce on March 14, with COMEX gold futures closing at $4592.1 per ounce, reflecting a weekly decline of 9.62% [5]. - Silver prices experienced an even more pronounced drop of over 15%, while palladium and platinum followed gold's downward trend. Additionally, global assets faced widespread sell-offs, with U.S. stock indices declining for four consecutive weeks, and European bond markets also experiencing significant losses [6][7]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a hawkish stance and contributing to the upward pressure on interest rates and the dollar, which in turn suppressed gold prices [7]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Many retail investors, misjudging the market's direction, faced significant losses as they attempted to "buy the dip." For instance, one investor bought gold at a price of 1089 yuan per gram, only to see prices plummet shortly after, resulting in a floating loss of approximately 500 yuan [9][10]. - As of March 21, the total scale of seven gold ETFs linked to the SGE gold index shrank by over 24 billion yuan, indicating a significant impact on investor sentiment and market dynamics [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while gold prices are currently under pressure, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, central bank buying, and persistent demand for safe-haven assets. The recent price adjustments are viewed as a deep correction rather than the end of a bull market [11][12]. - Institutions recommend caution for investors looking to "catch the falling knife," advising them to wait for gold prices to stabilize within the $4400-$4600 per ounce range before making long-term investments [13].

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent decline in precious metals is the complete reversal of interest rate expectations, with the Federal Reserve signaling a potential halt to rate cuts due to rising inflation concerns driven by escalating oil prices [2][3][4][88] - The market's expectation of two rate cuts this year was shattered, with the probability of any cuts dropping from 93% to below 60% following the Fed's March meeting [2][4] - The strong dollar, which reached a 10-month high, and profit-taking from investors who had benefited from previous price increases also contributed to the sell-off in precious metals [7][8][88] Group 2 - The sell-off pressure was exacerbated by forced liquidations of leveraged positions, particularly in gold and silver, as retail investors had heavily invested in these assets through leveraged ETFs [5][6] - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF experienced a record outflow of $2.91 billion on March 5, marking the largest single-day withdrawal since 2016 [5] - Silver, which saw a 30% drop at one point, was particularly affected due to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, leading to compounded selling pressure [8] Group 3 - The different decline rates among precious metals can be attributed to their unique market dynamics, with gold falling 11%, silver 17%, platinum 17%, and palladium 15% [8] - Gold's decline was primarily driven by interest rate expectations, while silver's drop was influenced by both its precious and industrial metal attributes, leading to greater volatility [8] - The industrial demand outlook for platinum and palladium has also been negatively impacted by economic uncertainty, contributing to their respective declines [8] Group 4 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the attacks on energy facilities, have created significant supply disruptions, impacting global energy markets and related commodities [11][12][16] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil, has led to a complete halt in maritime traffic, further straining supply chains and increasing market volatility [18] - China's methanol imports, which heavily rely on supplies from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, are at risk due to these geopolitical developments, potentially leading to significant supply shortages [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - This week, gold experienced its largest single-week decline since March 1983, with spot gold prices falling for eight consecutive trading days, marking the longest losing streak since October 2023 [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent plunge in gold prices is attributed to escalating Middle Eastern conflicts, which have driven up energy prices and suppressed interest rate cut expectations. Market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike have risen to 50%, intensifying the sell-off in precious metals [6][11]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1983 gold market crash, which was triggered by a massive sell-off of gold reserves by OPEC countries in response to plummeting oil revenues [6][20]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical indicators for gold have deteriorated significantly, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping below 30, indicating an oversold condition. This decline is seen as a result of profit-taking and liquidity clearing [16][17]. - As prices began to fall, stop-loss orders were triggered, leading to a self-reinforcing spiral of selling pressure. Additionally, passive selling from declining stock markets has further impacted gold prices [18][19]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The current macroeconomic environment has worsened, with Goldman Sachs economists predicting that rising energy prices will reduce global GDP by 0.3% over the next year and increase overall inflation by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points [22][23]. - The ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about prolonged high oil prices, which could further expose vulnerabilities in global asset markets and complicate the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [23].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a significant decline despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, with international spot gold prices dropping sharply, marking the largest weekly decline in nearly six years [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - International spot gold prices fell to $4502.32 per ounce, a drop of over $310 in a single day, continuing a downward trend for the seventh consecutive trading day [1]. - The domestic gold price in Shanghai closed at 1026.42 yuan per gram, reflecting a nearly 4.76% drop, with retail prices for gold jewelry also decreasing significantly [3]. - The disparity between retail gold prices and buyback prices has widened, with buyback offers ranging from 1008 to 1033 yuan per gram, indicating a loss of nearly 470 yuan in value for consumers who purchased gold at higher prices [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The catalyst for the gold price drop was the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, with indications that rates may remain high for an extended period [4][6]. - High interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to capital withdrawal as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise due to hawkish expectations [6]. - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has paradoxically contributed to the decline in gold prices by pushing up international oil prices, raising concerns about potential global inflation [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Despite the price drop, consumer interest in purchasing physical gold has surged, with reports of significant sales in gold jewelry and investment bars [9]. - The market for investment gold bars has seen shortages, with many banks reporting low availability of smaller gold bars [9]. - Consumers looking to sell their gold jewelry face challenges, as the brand premium paid during purchase is not reflected in the buyback prices, leading to a loss of value [9]. Group 4: Diverging Opinions - There is a split in market sentiment, with some major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs maintaining a bullish outlook on gold prices, predicting significant increases in the coming quarters [11]. - Conversely, some analysts caution against blindly buying the dip, suggesting that further sell-offs may occur before market stability is achieved [11]. - Central banks continue to purchase gold as part of a long-term strategy for diversifying foreign exchange reserves, contrasting with the more reactive buying behavior of individual investors [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall precious metals market declined today, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold down 3.83%, Shanghai Silver down 6.25%, Platinum down 1.98%, and Palladium up 2.68%. In the short - term, due to the easing of trade - war risks, the potential normalization of Middle - East geopolitical risks, strong US employment, persistent inflation pressure, and low expectations of interest - rate cuts, the precious metals are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, in low - level oscillation in the medium term, and maintain a long - term bullish trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: International prices such as Comex Gold and London Gold decreased, with Comex Gold down 3.57% and London Gold down 5.54% compared to the previous day. Domestic prices like Shanghai Gold and Gold T + D also declined, with Shanghai Gold down 2.15% and Gold T + D down 2.05% compared to the previous day [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex Gold position increased by 1.02% compared to the previous week, while Shanghai Gold main contract position decreased by 12.15% compared to the previous day. LBMA inventory increased by 0.56% compared to the previous week, and Comex Gold inventory decreased by 1.58% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, with details of the positions and their changes of each company [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. - **Price Data**: International prices of Comex Silver and London Silver dropped, with Comex Silver down 3.46% and London Silver down 11.32% compared to the previous day. Domestic prices of Shanghai Silver and Silver T + D also decreased, with Shanghai Silver down 2.00% and Silver T + D down 1.17% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex Silver position remained unchanged compared to the previous week, Shanghai Silver main contract position decreased by 3.51% compared to the previous day, and the total visible inventory decreased by 0.48% compared to the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, including the positions and their changes of each company [5]. Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Price Data**: International prices of NYMEX Platinum and London Platinum increased, with NYMEX Platinum up 4.38% and London Platinum up 1.97% compared to the previous day. Domestic prices of Platinum main contract and Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also rose, with the main contract up 3.73% and the Shanghai Gold Exchange price up 3.84% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX Platinum active contract position decreased by 6.76% compared to the previous day, and the total inventory remained unchanged [7]. Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are recommended [8]. - **Price Data**: The international price of NYMEX Palladium active contract increased by 3.81% compared to the previous day, while the London Palladium price decreased by 3.04% compared to the previous day. The domestic Palladium main contract price increased by 2.31% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX Palladium active contract position increased by 0.89% compared to the previous day, and the total inventory increased by 22.15% compared to the previous day [8]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.94% compared to the previous day, and the M2 growth rate increased by 0.06% [9]. - **US Inflation**: CPI year - on - year remained unchanged, and core CPI year - on - year also remained unchanged. The PCE price index year - on - year decreased by 0.08%, and the core PCE price index year - on - year increased by 0.05% [9]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP annualized year - on - year decreased by 0.30%, and GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter decreased by 3.70%. The unemployment rate increased by 0.10% [9]. - **US Labor Market**: The non - farm payroll employment change was - 9.20 million, and the labor participation rate increased by 0.20%. The ADP employment number increased by 5.20 million [9]. - **US Real Estate Market**: Existing home sales decreased by 4.22% compared to the previous week, and new home sales decreased by 14.58% compared to the previous week [9]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales year - on - year decreased by 0.86%, and personal consumption expenditure year - on - year increased by 0.66% [11]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index year - on - year decreased by 0.89%, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.04% [11]. - **US Trade**: Exports year - on - year increased by 32.70%, and imports year - on - year increased by 0.94%. The trade balance increased by 25.30% [11]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index decreased by 0.20, and the ISM services PMI index increased by 2.30 [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves increased by 0.09%, and the US and world gold reserves remained unchanged [11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves Ratio**: The US dollar ratio decreased by 2.53%, and the euro ratio increased by 5.61% [11]. - **Gold/Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's ratio increased by 4.06%, and the US ratio increased by 1.08% [11]. - **Geopolitical and Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 28.64%, and the VIX index decreased by 4.11% [11]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index decreased by 0.09%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased by 0.15% [11]. Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate range at different meeting dates from April 2026 to December 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest - rate decisions [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices due to rising energy prices from Middle East conflicts, leading to renewed inflation concerns and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by central banks. Gold is experiencing its largest weekly drop in six years, with current prices around $4,685 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 7% decline this week [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current international gold price is around $4,685 per ounce, with a weekly drop of nearly 7%, marking the largest weekly decline since March 2020 [6]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and investors selling profitable gold investments to cover losses in other areas [6][8]. - Gold ETFs have seen a continuous outflow of funds for three weeks, with holdings decreasing by over 60 tons during this period [8]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated a hawkish stance on future interest rate paths, with Chairman Powell emphasizing concerns over inflation risks [7]. - Powell noted that inflation has exceeded targets for five consecutive years and acknowledged high inflation in the services sector, raising concerns about potential second and third-round effects of inflation [7]. - The expectation for interest rate cuts has been pushed back due to short-term inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict and a relatively stable macroeconomic backdrop [7]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors are reducing portfolio risks, contributing to the recent decline in gold prices, as they seek to sell assets that have performed well [9][12]. - The market is experiencing a general sell-off across various asset classes, including gold and U.S. Treasuries, as investors reassess their holdings in light of current uncertainties [12]. - Analysts suggest that the current volatility in gold and precious metal prices may lead to further selling before a stabilization occurs [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On March 19, 2026, the platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly, with the platinum main contract down 7.66% to 506.95 yuan/gram and the palladium main contract down 8.18% to 371.45 yuan/gram [1] - The platinum price is expected to oscillate due to the high energy prices driving up inflation expectations in the US and delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectations [2] - The palladium price is also expected to oscillate as the short - term supply disturbances persist while the long - term supply - demand situation tends to ease, and it currently follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: The Fed's hawkish resolution led to a sharp decline in platinum prices. The March Fed meeting paused rate cuts as expected, and the dot - plot maintained the prediction of one rate cut in 2026. The Iran situation is the main trading line. On one hand, the risk - aversion sentiment supports precious metal prices; on the other hand, high oil prices increase inflation expectations, delay the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and may lead the US into a stagflation stage, suppressing prices. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the current US - Iran geopolitical conflict still significantly affects market expectations and platinum prices [2] - **Outlook**: The platinum price is expected to oscillate [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side of palladium. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. In general, the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to ease, but short - term supply disturbances still exist, and it currently follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] - **Outlook**: The palladium price is expected to oscillate [3] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [48] Non - ferrous Metals Index - **Performance**: On March 19, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2616.34, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day decline of 3.56%, a 1 - month decline of 2.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.59% [50]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is driven by a reversal in interest rate expectations and liquidity pressures, with gold dropping 3.5% and silver plummeting 12% in a single day [3][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold has seen a continuous decline since the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, with a weekly drop of nearly 8%, potentially marking the largest single-week decline since March 2020 [5][7]. - The recent statements from central banks in the U.S. and Europe indicate that the pace of interest rate cuts may be slower than previously anticipated, leading to a reduction in exposure to precious metals by both professional and retail investors [7][10]. - The current market environment reflects a significant shift in interest rate expectations, with the market now pricing in no rate cuts for the year, contrasting with earlier expectations of two cuts [11]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investor enthusiasm for gold is waning, as evidenced by net selling of approximately $1.05 million in the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, over six consecutive trading days [16]. - Professional investors, particularly trend-following hedge funds, are actively reducing their gold positions amid the current volatility, indicating a shift in risk management strategies [17][18]. - Some investors are choosing to realize profits from gold investments to offset losses in other asset classes, such as equities, due to rising margin calls [19]. Group 3: Broader Commodity Trends - The sell-off is not limited to gold and silver; platinum and palladium have also seen significant declines of 17% and 15% respectively, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are also falling, reflecting a systemic downgrade in global economic growth expectations [21][23]. - The strong U.S. dollar and the rising attractiveness of emerging investment opportunities in energy stocks are diverting funds away from gold, suppressing its geopolitical risk premium [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by a reversal in interest rate expectations and increased liquidity pressures, with gold hitting a six-week low and silver experiencing significant intraday volatility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On March 19, gold fell by 3.5% to around $4500, marking a six-week low, while silver saw an intraday drop of 12% before recovering slightly [3][5]. - The cumulative decline for gold this week is nearly 8%, potentially the largest weekly drop since March 2020 [5][6]. - The reversal in interest rate expectations is the fundamental driver of this downturn, as central banks in the US and Europe signaled a slower pace of rate cuts than previously anticipated [6][7]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors are showing signs of reduced enthusiasm for gold, with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF experiencing net outflows of approximately $10.5 million over six consecutive trading days [13][14]. - Professional investors, particularly trend-following hedge funds (CTAs), are actively reducing their gold positions amid current market volatility [14][15]. - The strong US dollar and the attractiveness of emerging investment opportunities are diverting funds away from gold, further suppressing its geopolitical risk premium [17]. Group 3: Broader Commodity Trends - The sell-off is not limited to gold and silver; platinum and palladium have also seen significant declines of 17% and 15% respectively this month, indicating a broader market sentiment regarding global economic growth [18][19]. - Analysts suggest that investors are concluding that a global economic slowdown will inevitably lead to demand destruction across various commodities [19].