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行业周报:AI持续赋能平台经济,关注高景气端游及IP新品-20250824
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-24 14:14
行 业 研 究 2025 年 08 月 24 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 96% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 传媒 沪深300 相关研究报告 《关注端游复苏趋势,继续布局游戏/ 音乐/潮玩/AI 应用—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.18 《GPT-5 或加速 AI 应用落地,游戏、 国 漫 IP 持续精彩 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.10 《关注模型/Agent 推新迭代,布局 AI 应用、IP 新消费—行业周报》-2025.8.3 AI 持续赋能平台经济,关注高景气端游及 IP 新品 ——行业周报 方光照(分析师) fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790520030004 平台公司财报验证 AI 对业绩的赋能,DeepSeek-V3.1 发布,继续布局 AI 应用 根据快手财报,2025Q2 实现线上营销服务收入 198 亿元(同比+12.8%),主要 系 AI 优化产品营销方案,推动客户投放增加,其中 UAX 解决方案消耗占外循 环总消耗的比例提升至 65%,Q2 实现 ...
传媒互联网行业周报:关注游戏、潮玩IP、AI等中报超预期且高景气度板块-20250824
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-08-24 13:49
证券研究报告 传媒 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 24 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC:S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 陈逸凡 SAC:S1350525040003 chenyifan@huayuanstock.com 周政宇 SAC:S1350525050006 zhouzhengyu@huayuanstock.com 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 关注游戏、潮玩 IP、AI 等中报超预期且高景气度板块 投资评级: 看好(维持) ——传媒互联网行业周报(2025.8.18-2025.8.24) 投资要点: 本周观点:2025 年中报披露进入高峰阶段,建议重视中报业绩超预期公司所指引出 的产业发展方向,及短期交易弹性。目前高景气度板块方向仍较为明确,我们建议 1)继续关注新游带动下高频数据不断修正的游戏公司,同时前置关注后续重点游戏 的预期交易;2)潮玩仍是新消费高热方向,关注新 IP 和产品形态的孵化,及 IP 价 值的培育升级;3)AI 应用加速落地且创造收入,关注大厂超级 APP AI ...
“古剑奇谭”新作呼之欲出 国产单机游戏争奇斗艳
上述预告片是上海烛龙自2018年11月推出《古剑奇谭三》后,第一次释放"古剑奇谭"系列单机新作的相 关信息。在此之前,上海烛龙推出了一部"古剑奇谭"系列的MMO游戏,一部类银河恶魔城游戏,以及 一款长期服务型的二次元游戏。 中经记者 许心怡 吴可仲 上海报道 "古剑奇谭"系列单机终于释放出新作信息。8月17日,上海烛龙曝光单机新作《古剑》的预告片。截至8 月21日,这支预告片在B站(哔哩哔哩)的播放量已经超过1000万。 除《古剑》外,今年也有多部单机大作曝光或公布最新进展。《影之刃零》、"黑神话"系列新作《黑神 话:钟馗》、网易雷火旗下的《归唐》未来将与玩家见面。 新作已暌违7年 《古剑》诡怪奇谲的设定延续了上海烛龙"古剑奇谭"系列的东方幻想特色。这则据称实机录制的预告片 显示,《古剑》的主角是一名"黄泉司判",持"生死簿"前往人间,收服亡魂。而主角本身则被强调没 有"魂"。主角持多种武器进行战斗,还可以携带"助手",如"牛头""马面"。 8月20日,《古剑》登录科隆游戏展开幕之夜。 上海烛龙成立于2007年,旗下产品以叙事和角色塑造见长,世界观大量借鉴中国志怪传说,文字功力为 玩家称道。 2010年7月, ...
北水动向|北水成交净买入51.66亿 芯片股分化明显 北水逢高抛售小鹏(09868)超13亿港元
智通财经网· 2025-08-22 09:57
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from Northbound trading, with a total net buy of HKD 51.66 billion on August 22, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks while others faced net sell-offs [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Kuaishou-W (01024) received the highest net buy of HKD 11.72 billion, supported by its strong Q2 earnings report showing a revenue of HKD 350.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, and an adjusted net profit of HKD 56.2 billion, up 20.1% [4]. - Semiconductor stocks showed mixed results, with SMIC (00981) and ZTE Corporation (00763) gaining net buys of HKD 10.92 billion and HKD 3.16 billion respectively, while Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) faced a net sell of HKD 7.5 billion [5]. - Meituan-W (03690) attracted a net buy of HKD 10.08 billion, bolstered by its international expansion efforts, including the launch of its food delivery brand Keeta in Qatar [5]. Group 2: Notable Transactions - Tencent (00700) saw a net buy of HKD 4.61 billion, driven by a 17% year-on-year increase in domestic game revenue to HKD 404 billion in Q2 [6]. - Xiaopeng Motors-W (09868) experienced a significant net sell of HKD 13.08 billion, following a 13% surge in its stock price, as investors took profits [7]. - Alibaba-W (09988) recorded a net buy of HKD 3.85 billion, while Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced a net sell of HKD 9.02 billion [7].
港股缺乏方向,恒指续料2万5争持
Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market lacks direction, with the Hang Seng Index expected to continue fluctuating around the 25,000 points level [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index opened at 25,216, reached a high of 25,216, and closed at 25,104, down 61 points or 0.24% [3] - The total market turnover decreased to HKD 23.94 billion [3] Group 2: Macro & Industry Dynamics - As of August 18, the overall return of the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) increased by 1.6%, with an average gain of HKD 4,956 per person [6] - Year-to-date, the MPF composite index rose by 11.9%, with stock fund indices increasing by 16.7% [6] - The strongest performing fund in August was the Japanese stock fund, which rose by 5.5%, while the weakest was the US stock fund, which only increased by 1.3% [6] Group 3: Company News - Smoore (06969) continues to invest in the development of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products, with a focus on enhancing user experience and optimizing tobacco flavor [11] - The company reduced its R&D spending on electronic vapor products, prioritizing HNB products and medical vaporization, with total R&D expenditure of approximately RMB 723 million, down about 4.9% year-on-year [11] - Tencent's new mobile game "Valorant" generated approximately HKD 7.8 million on its first day of release, with around 170,000 downloads [13]
北水动向|北水成交净买入74.61亿 腾讯(00700)等科网股获加仓 盈富基金(02800)再遭抛售
智通财经网· 2025-08-21 10:01
8月21日港股市场,北水成交净买入74.61亿港元,其中港股通(沪)成交净买入22.01亿港元,港股通(深) 成交净买入52.6亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是腾讯(00700)、美团-W(03690)、小米集团-W(01810)。北水净卖出最多的个股 是盈富基金(02800)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、中芯国际(00981)。 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 净流入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 腾讯控股 HK 00700 | 25.73亿 | 9.54 Z | 35.27 亿 | | | | | +16.18 乙 | | 中兴通讯 | 16.36亿 | 14.41 Z | 30.78亿 | | HK 00763 | | | +1.951Z | | 小米集团-W | 19.40 亿 | 11.12 乙 | 30.52亿 | | HK 01810 | | | +8.28 乙 | | 美团-W | 17.66 乙 | 9.78 乙 | 27.44亿 | | 06930 MIK | | | +7.89亿 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 14.07 乙 | 11.69 ...
腾讯控股(00700):AI赋能生态,多维度驱动业务增长
Huaan Securities· 2025-08-21 07:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q2 revenue reached 184.5 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.5%, exceeding consensus expectations of 178.9 billion yuan [4] - The gross profit for Q2 was 105.0 billion yuan, up 22.3% year-over-year and 4.5% quarter-over-quarter, also surpassing the consensus estimate of 98.8 billion yuan [4] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 was 63.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.0% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.8%, beating the consensus estimate of 62.0 billion yuan [4] - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing investment in AI, which is driving growth across various business segments, including gaming, marketing, and financial technology [10] Summary by Sections Q2 Performance - Q2 revenue was 184.5 billion yuan, beating expectations by 3.1% [4] - Gross profit was 105.0 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 6.3% [4] - Adjusted net profit was 63.1 billion yuan, beating expectations by 1.7% [4] Value-Added Services - Domestic gaming revenue was 40.4 billion yuan, up 17% year-over-year, while international gaming revenue reached 18.8 billion yuan, up 35% year-over-year [5] - The company is enhancing AI applications in gaming, leading to a 20% year-over-year increase in mini-game revenue [5] Marketing Business - Marketing revenue was 35.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year, driven by AI improvements in advertising platforms [6] - The combined MAU for WeChat and QQ reached 1.411 billion and 532 million, respectively [6] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue was 55.5 billion yuan, up 10% year-over-year, exceeding expectations [7] - Growth in enterprise services was driven by increased demand for AI-related services [7] AI Ecosystem - Capital expenditure for Q2 was 19.1 billion yuan, up 119% year-over-year, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing its AI capabilities [8] - The report details advancements in AI models and tools, including the launch of new 3D models and upgrades to Tencent Cloud's AI programming tools [9] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 252.3 billion yuan, 286.1 billion yuan, and 324.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong performance in gaming and the positive impact of AI on advertising and cloud services [10]
腾讯控股(00700):25Q2季报点评:AI驱动广告游戏高增,期待《无畏契约》上线拓展长青游戏管线
Orient Securities· 2025-08-20 07:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 673.68 HKD [5][3] Core Views - The report highlights that AI-driven growth in advertising and gaming is expected to continue, with significant contributions from long-standing games and the upcoming launch of "Valorant" [9][3] - The forecast for IFRS net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 223.1 billion, 257.7 billion, and 297 billion RMB respectively, reflecting an upward revision based on improved expectations for gaming, advertising, and payment services [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the operating revenue is projected at 609,015 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9.82% [4] - The operating profit for 2023A is expected to be 152,784 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 52.76% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is forecasted at 115,216 million RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 38.79% [4] - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit growth, with projections of 68.44% growth in 2024A and steady growth rates of around 15% for the following years [4][3] Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates that the revenue from value-added services reached 914 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16% [9] - Gaming revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to be 592 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [9] - Marketing services revenue is projected at 358 billion RMB for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 20% [9] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, indicating a target price of 673.68 HKD, which reflects a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22 for 2025E [3][11] - The report also notes a projected P/B ratio of 5 for 2025E [4][11] Market Performance - The stock has shown a strong performance with a 60.41% increase over the past 12 months [6] - The report notes that the stock price as of August 19, 2025, was 592.5 HKD, with a 52-week high of 600 HKD and a low of 361.64 HKD [5]
腾讯控股(00700):2Q25回顾:AI驱动各业务板块实现强劲表现
Huajing Securities· 2025-08-18 13:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HK$685.00, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HK$586.00 [1][7][16]. Core Insights - Tencent's online gaming revenue grew by 22% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with domestic market growth at 17% and international market growth at 35%. The growth was driven by popular titles and new game launches [5][6]. - The advertising revenue increased by 20% year-on-year, supported by AI-driven improvements in ad targeting and user engagement [6][14]. - Financial technology and enterprise services also saw a 10% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from commercial payments and cloud services [6][14]. - The adjusted operating profit margin reached 37.5%, up 120 basis points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability due to business expansion and higher margins from new services [7][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 748.6 billion, with a net profit of RMB 255.5 billion and an EPS of RMB 27.46 [8][14]. - The report anticipates continued growth in both domestic and international gaming segments, with revised growth expectations of 16% for domestic and 23% for international markets in 2025 [5][14]. - The adjusted operating profit margin forecasts for Q3 2025 and 2025 are raised to 38.5% and 38.0%, respectively, reflecting strong performance in high-margin business areas [14][15]. Valuation - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation for Tencent is set at HK$685.00, based on various business segment performance forecasts [16][17]. - The core gaming segment is valued at HK$2.1 trillion, while the advertising segment is valued at HK$1.5 trillion, both based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025 [17][18].
腾讯游戏的内部赛马要回来了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 09:52
Core Insights - Tencent's Q2 2025 earnings report highlighted the unexpected success of the game "Delta Action," which has rapidly climbed to the top of the industry in terms of daily active users (DAU) and revenue [1][4][10] Game Performance - "Delta Action" launched in September last year and has shown significant growth, entering the top five in industry DAU and top three in revenue [1][4] - The game achieved over 10 billion yuan in revenue in Q4 last year and currently boasts over 20 million daily active users, marking a 66% quarter-on-quarter increase [4][10] - It has become a rare dual-platform evergreen product, performing exceptionally well on both PC and mobile [4][10] Strategic Importance - Tencent's management has consistently highlighted "Delta Action" as a key contributor in every earnings report since Q3 last year, positioning it alongside major titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peace Elite" [2][5] - The game aligns with Tencent's strategy for long-term service-oriented games (GAAS), marking it as the most successful self-developed evergreen product since "Peace Elite" in 2019 [5][20] Market Dynamics - "Delta Action" has reached a peak of nearly 200,000 concurrent users on the Steam platform and ranks among the top three in net bar popularity [6] - On mobile, it competes closely with "Peace Elite," ranking in the top three of both the App Store free and revenue charts [8] - The game has the highest average daily active accounts among new releases in the past three years [9] Revenue Structure - The strong performance of "Delta Action" has shifted Tencent's revenue structure towards self-developed products, directly enhancing the gross margin of Tencent's value-added services, which saw a year-on-year increase of 23% [10] Competitive Landscape - Tencent's management has addressed concerns regarding potential cannibalization among its flagship games, emphasizing that the shooting game genre in China remains underexploited compared to Western markets [15] - The company believes that the introduction of new gameplay modes can expand the user base rather than merely competing for existing users [15] - "Delta Action" and "Peace Elite" currently have low overlap in user demographics, reducing immediate competition [15][18] Future Considerations - Tencent aims for "Delta Action" to complement "Peace Elite," potentially attracting players interested in extraction gameplay [18] - The company holds the IP for "Delta Action," allowing for greater revenue control and operational flexibility compared to "Peace Elite," which is based on an IP controlled by a third party [20] - The competition between Tencent's internal studios could lead to significant shifts in its game development strategy, especially if "Delta Action" continues to outperform "Peace Elite" [20]