Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price not specified [7]. Core Insights - Tencent's overall performance in Q2 2025 shows strong revenue and profit growth, with AI capabilities contributing significantly [1]. - Revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, while gross profit rose by 22%. Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 18%, and Non-IFRS net profit increased by 10%, all exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company emphasizes the substantial contributions of AI to advertising effectiveness and long-standing games, with various AI features launched within WeChat [2]. - The gaming segment saw a 22% increase in revenue, driven by both domestic and international markets, with notable titles contributing to this growth [3]. - Marketing services revenue grew by 20%, with significant increases in video account and search advertising, supported by AI enhancements [4]. - Financial technology and enterprise services also showed a 10% growth in revenue, with improved gross margins [5]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q2 2025 revenue and profit growth were strong, with revenue exceeding Bloomberg expectations primarily from gaming and advertising [1]. AI Contributions - AI applications have been integrated into various services, enhancing advertising performance and user engagement [2]. Gaming Revenue - Network gaming revenue increased by 22%, with both domestic and international markets performing well [3]. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue exceeded expectations, driven by AI improvements in advertising effectiveness [4]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 10%, with enhanced profitability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Tencent Holdings (00700) is experiencing rapid growth across various business segments, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 4% to 745.3 billion and 815.8 billion yuan respectively, while maintaining Non-IFRS net profit estimates unchanged [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, Tencent's revenue exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 14.5% to 184.5 billion yuan, surpassing the firm's expectations by 3.5% and market expectations by 3.1% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q2 2025 increased by 10% to 63.05 billion yuan, aligning closely with the firm's expectations and exceeding market expectations by 1.6% [1] - The advertising business saw a revenue increase of 20% to 35.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, benefiting from AI applications in ad creation, placement, and analysis, with video account and mini-program ad revenues growing by 50% and search ad revenues by 60% [2] - The gaming segment reported a 22% increase in revenue to 59.2 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 5%, with overseas game revenue up 35% [3] Group 2: AI Integration and Future Outlook - AI is significantly enhancing various business operations, particularly in advertising and gaming, by improving content production and user engagement strategies [2][3] - The company anticipates continued strong growth in gaming revenue in the second half of 2025, driven by new game launches and sustained performance of existing titles [3] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The gross margin improved by 3.6 percentage points in Q2 2025, with specific business segments like VAS, advertising, and FBS showing notable margin increases [5] - Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 18.5% in Q2 2025, while Non-IFRS net profit increased by 10%, reflecting effective cost management [5] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 were 19.1 billion yuan, with share buybacks totaling 19.4 billion HKD, completing 46% of the annual buyback plan in the first half of 2025 [5]

中金发布研报称，基于腾讯控股(00700)各项业务的快速增长，分别上调2025/2026年收入2%/4%至 7,453/8,158亿元，基本维持2025/2026年Non-IFRS净利润预测不变。维持跑赢行业评级，由于市场估值 中枢抬升，上调目标价17%到700港元，基于AI更长远的赋能前景，切换估值至2026年，对应2026年20x Non-IFRS P/E，有19%上行空间，当前交易于2026年17x Non-IFRS P/E。 中金主要观点如下： 游戏收入表现可打破"高基数"增长担忧，金融业务增速超预期 公司2Q25游戏收入同增22%至592亿元，超该行和一致预期5%。海外游戏收入同增35%，主要得益于 Supercell旗下游戏及《PUBG M》等游戏表现强劲，《皇室战争》于6月流水创下7年新高;国内游戏收入 同增17%，热门"搜打撤"赛道《三角洲行动》日活突破2,000万(2025年7月)。展望后续，该行认为2025 下半年公司游戏收入仍可维持较快的同比增长——一方面依赖《三角洲行动》及海外、国内长青游戏不 断迸发生命力;另一方面，部分新游库存即将上线，《无畏契约手游》国服已定档8月19日上线，全网 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's market value has increased by over $150 billion this year, but it still has a 26% gap to its historical peak, making its stock appear "cheap" compared to global tech giants [2][4] Group 1: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Tencent's current valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E ratio of 17.6, below its five-year average of 20 [4] - The average market expectation for Tencent's 12-month forward earnings per share has reached a historical high, with analysts predicting an 11% revenue growth for the second quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [4][5] - Investor sentiment is improving, as the cost of hedging Tencent's stock has decreased from its peak in April, with 66 buy ratings, the highest in the region [8] Group 2: Gaming Business as Growth Engine - The upcoming launch of the highly anticipated game "Valorant Mobile" is expected to drive revenue growth for Tencent from the second half of this year through mid-2026 [6] - The game "Delta Force" is also emerging as a potential long-term franchise, highlighting the strong cash generation capabilities of the gaming industry, especially amid profitability pressures on Chinese internet platforms [7]

腾讯虽然今年市值大涨1500多亿美元，但仍未收复失地，股价也较其他全球巨头显得"便宜"。投资者正押注其即将重返巅峰，并聚焦周三财报及重磅游 戏《无畏契约手游》的上线。分析师预期公司二季度收入将增长11%，连续三季度两位数增长。GAM基金经理称腾讯回归新高"只是时间问题"。 今年腾讯已增加超过1500亿美元市值，但距离历史高点仍有26%的差距。与Meta、索尼等全球科技同行相比，腾讯仍在大幅折价交易。在8月13日周 三即将公布的财报前，分析师对腾讯的盈利预期已升至历史新高，《无畏契约手游》等重磅游戏也承载着市场厚望。 腾讯目前的估值吸引力正在显现。据彭博数据，该股按预期远期市盈率计算为17.6倍，低于五年平均水平的20倍。相比之下，Meta和索尼均约为22 倍，任天堂更是接近40倍——这三家公司上周都创下了股价新高。 GAM资管公司基金经理Jian Shi Cortesi表示，鉴于微信的普及和"合理"的股票估值，腾讯股价重拾昔日辉煌 "只是时间问题" 。 晨星分析师Ivan Su同样乐观： "我毫不怀疑腾讯将回到历史水平。" 他认为市场尚未充分考虑AI对公司广告和游戏业务的推动作用，"我认为盈利预期 最终会上调 ...

Core Insights - ChinaJoy remains a significant event in the gaming industry, attracting large crowds and showcasing new products despite some criticisms about its decline over the years [1][2] - The presence of popular Korean Coser Yasal and other influencers highlights the growing trend of integrating cosplay into gaming events, enhancing audience engagement [2][4] - The game "Red Desert" is positioned as a potential breakout hit, showcasing high-quality gameplay and innovative technology [6] - Major companies like Tencent and Sony continue to dominate the event with large booths and popular game titles, indicating their strong market presence [18][19][11] - The increasing focus on AI-driven hardware and immersive experiences reflects a shift in the gaming industry towards technology integration [24][27][30] Group 1 - ChinaJoy has been held for 22 years and remains a key event in the interactive entertainment sector, attracting significant attendance [1] - The event featured long queues for popular games, such as "Shadow Blade Zero," indicating high demand and engagement from attendees [11] - The absence of major players like MiHoYo and Bilibili at this year's event suggests a strategic shift towards hosting their own events [8][9] Group 2 - The participation of Microsoft CEO Phil Spencer at ChinaJoy signifies the event's growing international influence and importance in the gaming market [21][23] - Traditional gaming companies continue to utilize classic marketing strategies, such as stage shows and influencer appearances, to attract crowds [14] - The emergence of AI-driven products and immersive experiences at the event indicates a trend towards blending gaming with advanced technology [24][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the internet media sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of AI applications in the US stock market, particularly noting Figma's successful IPO and its market capitalization exceeding $50 billion. Figma's integration of AI into design workflows is expected to enhance customer retention and drive revenue growth [4]. - The report identifies several key opportunities within the domestic AI application industry, including AI design, AI advertising, AI companionship/gaming, cross-border e-commerce, and education [4]. - The gaming sector is also highlighted, with Tencent's new game "Delta Action" exceeding expectations in daily active users, indicating strong growth potential despite high baseline comparisons [4]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing high demand for consumer entertainment sectors such as trendy toys, music, and concerts, with companies like Pop Mart and NetEase Cloud Music being recommended as core investment targets [4]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - Figma's revenue for 2024 is projected at $749 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 48%. The company's Rule of 40 score is among the top in the SaaS sector, with a revenue growth rate of 46% and an operating margin of 18% [4]. - The report suggests focusing on domestic AI design companies like Meitu, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 40% from 2024 to 2026, and Kuaishou, which has a low PE ratio of 15x [4]. Gaming Sector - Tencent's gaming growth potential is considered underestimated, with new titles like "Delta Action" performing well in the market. The report anticipates continued growth from other titles in development [4]. - Other companies such as Giant Network and Huatuo are also mentioned for their innovative game offerings and potential for future growth [4]. Consumer Entertainment - The report continues to recommend companies in the high-demand consumer entertainment sector, including Pop Mart and NetEase Cloud Music, as they have adjusted to high valuations and are entering favorable investment zones [4]. Advertising and Marketing - The collaboration between Focus Media and Alipay is noted as a significant development, aiming to create new marketing paradigms by integrating digital and physical spaces [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of AI applications, particularly in programming, recommendation, and creative generation, with Chinese companies focusing on emotional consumption and overseas expansion to drive revenue [5]. - Tencent is identified as a strong player in AI applications, leveraging its large daily active users (DAU) and rich content ecosystem, with expectations for significant future growth in its advertising and cloud computing segments [5]. - The gaming sector is noted for its potential, with Tencent's game "Delta Action" exceeding expectations in DAU, and the value of game IP, especially female-oriented games, remains underappreciated by the market [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in enhancing advertising efficiency and revenue generation, particularly for companies with untapped traffic potential [5]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - AI applications are driving growth in various sectors, with significant contributions from programming and creative tools [5]. - Tencent's AI capabilities are expected to enhance its advertising revenue, with a projected growth rate of 20% in Q1 2025 [5]. Gaming Sector - Tencent's "Delta Action" has maintained a strong position in the iOS game sales rankings, indicating robust growth potential [5]. - The report notes that the gaming IP value, particularly for female-targeted games, is not fully recognized by the market, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5]. Key Company Valuations - Tencent's market capitalization is reported at 45,907 million RMB, with projected revenue growth of 11% for 2025 [7]. - Other companies like NetEase and Giant Network are also highlighted, with respective market caps of 6,139 million RMB and 463 million RMB, showing varied growth rates [7].

Group 1 - The gaming sector remains active, with the gaming ETF (516010) rising over 2% and a trading volume exceeding 120 million yuan, indicating strong capital inflow with a net inflow of over 320 million yuan in the past five days [1] - Recent new game launches have performed well, with significant contributions from high-quality products expected to be released in the second half of the year, including Tencent's "Valorant Mobile" and Perfect World's "Yihuan" [1] - The partnership between Kuaishou's Keling AI and NetEase's mobile game "Nirvana in Fire" aims to enhance social gameplay through advanced AI video generation technology, expanding Keling AI's commercial application in the gaming industry [1] Group 2 - Leading companies in the film and gaming sectors are actively exploring new revenue streams by developing and selling IP toy products, thereby expanding their income scale and enhancing the commercial value of upstream IP and downstream channel enterprises [2] - The expansion of China's new consumer market and AI-driven media technology is expected to further enhance the commercial value of IP, presenting potential investment opportunities in the gaming ETF (516010) [2]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3400 points, closing up 0.52% at 3402.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.21% [1] - Key sectors leading the market included rare earths, auto parts, and gaming, while the innovative drug sector saw a pullback [1] Economic and Policy Insights - Recent US-China trade talks resulted in a consensus on key economic issues, reflecting a commitment to implement agreements from previous discussions [1] - Despite fluctuations in tariff policies, China's exports maintained steady growth, indicating macroeconomic resilience [1] - The potential for counter-cyclical policies in China may provide positive support for asset prices, suggesting manageable risks for A-shares in the near term [1] Investment Strategies - With long-term capital inflows, the downward space for the market appears limited, and investors are encouraged to consider strategies like dollar-cost averaging and grid trading for opportunistic investments [1] - The upcoming annual dividend distributions in June and July are expected to enhance the appeal of dividend-paying assets [1] Dividend and ETF Focus - The new policies encouraging dividend distributions among listed companies are beneficial for state-owned enterprises, enhancing investor returns and supporting valuation recovery [2] - The Cash Flow ETF and Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF have both announced monthly dividends, with the latter achieving 14 consecutive months of distributions [2] - The Cash Flow ETF has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index over the past nine years, making it an attractive option for investors seeking consistent cash flow [2] Gaming Sector Developments - The Gaming ETF saw a 2.42% increase, driven by the successful launch of new games and the anticipation of major IP products in the second half of the year [3] - Collaborations between gaming companies and AI technology firms are enhancing user experiences and expanding commercial applications within the gaming industry [3][4] - The trend of developing and selling IP-related products is gaining traction among leading film and gaming companies, contributing to revenue growth [4]