Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 2% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70.6 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, surpassing consensus expectations by 7% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Gross profit growth rate (22%) outpaced adjusted operating profit growth (18%) and adjusted net profit growth (18%), while revenue growth was at 15% [1] - Revenue from value-added services and advertising exceeded expectations, with significant contributions from overseas gaming [1] - International and domestic game revenues grew by 43% and 15% year-on-year, respectively, with domestic game revenue maintaining a high level at 42.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Advertising and AI Integration - Advertising revenue grew by 21% year-on-year, driven by improved loading rates and AI-driven eCPM enhancements [2] - The launch of the intelligent advertising product matrix, Tencent Advertising AIM+, contributed to revenue growth [2] - Financial technology services revenue increased by 10%, supported by growth in commercial payments and consumer loan services [2] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and AI Development - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, accounting for 6.7% of revenue, with a total of 59.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing 10.7% of revenue [2] - Market pricing for Tencent's AI capabilities is considered insufficient, with advancements in complex reasoning and image generation models [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 260.2 billion, 300.7 billion, and 337.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The target price based on the SOTP valuation method is set at 791 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 23.4% [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report anticipates a non-typical economic recovery in 2026, driven by confidence rebuilding and policy support, with a potential for profit improvement in the latter half of the year [9][10] - Key factors contributing to export resilience include fiscal expansion in developed economies, easing of US-China tariff conflicts, and improvements in China's industrial competitiveness [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of reform in driving economic benefits, suggesting that 2026 will mark a significant acceleration in reform efforts [9][10] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The report outlines a two-phase bull market strategy, with 2025 characterized as "Bull Market 1.0" focused on technology, and 2026 potentially entering "Bull Market 2.0" with broader market participation [10][11] - It predicts that 2026 will see a rebound in profitability across the A-share market, with expected growth rates of 7% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 for net profits [10][11] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" is expected to be marked by a shift towards cyclical stocks and a resurgence in technology-driven sectors [10][11] Group 3: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market outlook for 2026 suggests a low-interest environment with ongoing asset allocation adjustments, although the attractiveness of bond assets may be limited [11][12] - The report highlights the importance of timing in duration strategies, with a focus on credit certainty as a key investment theme [12][13] - Potential risks include a shift towards a more bearish market due to inflationary pressures and fiscal policy changes [12][13] Group 4: Shipping and Shipbuilding Sector - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipbuilding sector, driven by rising second-hand ship prices surpassing new build prices, signaling a potential supercycle [20][21] - Historical trends show that improvements in shipping market conditions typically lead to delayed increases in shipbuilding stock prices, suggesting a similar pattern may occur [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil tanker rental rates and their impact on shipbuilding market dynamics [20][21] Group 5: Environmental Sector - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from stable municipal environmental profits, improved cash flows, and adjustments in water pricing, highlighting opportunities in environmental assets [19][21] - The report suggests that the dual carbon goals and AI integration will drive growth in the environmental sector, with specific recommendations for companies involved in waste management and renewable energy [19][21] - The focus on municipal environmental projects is expected to enhance the attractiveness of certain stocks within the sector [19][21]

今年来，腾讯游戏海外业绩持续增长。财报显示，本季度海外业绩主要得益于Supercell旗下游戏收入增 长，收购的游戏工作室的收入贡献，以及新发布《消逝的光芒：困兽》的销量表现。 国际市场游戏收入同比增长43% 财报显示，《皇室战争》的平均日活跃账户数及流水于9月创下新高。第三方数据显示，《皇室战争》 在7月创下了自2021年以来的日流水新高。9月流水或超7.5亿元，同比大增360%。增长动力来自玩法创 新、匹配机制优化、热门IP联动及头部KOL生态发展等多重举措。 中国经济网北京11月14日讯(记者李方)11月13日，腾讯公布2025年第三季度业绩，网络游戏业务总收入 达636亿元，其中，本土市场游戏收入为428亿元，同比增长15%；国际市场游戏收入为208亿元，同比 增长43%。 10月，《和平精英》官宣，8月9日当天进入游戏内绿洲启元的活跃用户数突破3300万。这也标志着其在 第三季度再次创下数据里程碑。 据三方数据机构，2024年，全球射击游戏市场规模为726.8亿美元。预计该市场将从2025年的820.2亿美 元增长到2032年的1929亿美元，预测期内复合年增长率为13.0%。可以看出，全球射击市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price not specified [7]. Core Insights - Tencent's overall performance in Q2 2025 shows strong revenue and profit growth, with AI capabilities contributing significantly [1]. - Revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, while gross profit rose by 22%. Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 18%, and Non-IFRS net profit increased by 10%, all exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company emphasizes the substantial contributions of AI to advertising effectiveness and long-standing games, with various AI features launched within WeChat [2]. - The gaming segment saw a 22% increase in revenue, driven by both domestic and international markets, with notable titles contributing to this growth [3]. - Marketing services revenue grew by 20%, with significant increases in video account and search advertising, supported by AI enhancements [4]. - Financial technology and enterprise services also showed a 10% growth in revenue, with improved gross margins [5]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q2 2025 revenue and profit growth were strong, with revenue exceeding Bloomberg expectations primarily from gaming and advertising [1]. AI Contributions - AI applications have been integrated into various services, enhancing advertising performance and user engagement [2]. Gaming Revenue - Network gaming revenue increased by 22%, with both domestic and international markets performing well [3]. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue exceeded expectations, driven by AI improvements in advertising effectiveness [4]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 10%, with enhanced profitability [5].

Group 1 - The gaming industry is experiencing a strong recovery starting in 2024, driven by both market sentiment and fundamental performance of certain companies [1][2] - The current gaming market is characterized by a significant reliance on user acquisition strategies, with many companies shifting from a focus on quality to large-scale user acquisition [2][3] - The introduction of new high-quality games from major internet companies in 2024 is expected to act as a stabilizing force for the industry [2][4] Group 2 - The financial impact of user acquisition is significant, often leading to a delay in profit realization after new game launches due to high initial marketing costs [3][7] - The gaming industry has shown resilience due to its non-cyclical nature and a more relaxed regulatory environment in recent years [7][8] - Institutional investors are increasingly optimistic about gaming companies, with a notable increase in public fund holdings, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards these companies [7][8] Group 3 - The upcoming release of Tencent's "Valorant Mobile" is highly anticipated, with over 60 million pre-registrations, although its short-term commercial success remains uncertain due to a crowded market [6][7] - The overall new game releases in the market are limited, leading to a focus on performance verification of existing companies [7][8] - The absence of new trending topics in the gaming industry suggests that performance validation will be the main focus in the latter half of the year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Tencent Holdings (00700) is experiencing rapid growth across various business segments, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 4% to 745.3 billion and 815.8 billion yuan respectively, while maintaining Non-IFRS net profit estimates unchanged [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, Tencent's revenue exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 14.5% to 184.5 billion yuan, surpassing the firm's expectations by 3.5% and market expectations by 3.1% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q2 2025 increased by 10% to 63.05 billion yuan, aligning closely with the firm's expectations and exceeding market expectations by 1.6% [1] - The advertising business saw a revenue increase of 20% to 35.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, benefiting from AI applications in ad creation, placement, and analysis, with video account and mini-program ad revenues growing by 50% and search ad revenues by 60% [2] - The gaming segment reported a 22% increase in revenue to 59.2 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 5%, with overseas game revenue up 35% [3] Group 2: AI Integration and Future Outlook - AI is significantly enhancing various business operations, particularly in advertising and gaming, by improving content production and user engagement strategies [2][3] - The company anticipates continued strong growth in gaming revenue in the second half of 2025, driven by new game launches and sustained performance of existing titles [3] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The gross margin improved by 3.6 percentage points in Q2 2025, with specific business segments like VAS, advertising, and FBS showing notable margin increases [5] - Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 18.5% in Q2 2025, while Non-IFRS net profit increased by 10%, reflecting effective cost management [5] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 were 19.1 billion yuan, with share buybacks totaling 19.4 billion HKD, completing 46% of the annual buyback plan in the first half of 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a positive outlook for Tencent Holdings (00700), raising revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 4% respectively, while maintaining Non-IFRS net profit estimates unchanged. The target price is increased by 17% to HKD 700, reflecting a shift in valuation to 2026 with a corresponding 20x Non-IFRS P/E ratio, indicating a 19% upside potential based on current trading at 17x Non-IFRS P/E [1] Revenue Performance - In Q2 2025, Tencent's revenue grew by 14.5% year-on-year to CNY 184.5 billion, exceeding CICC's expectations by 3.5% and market expectations by 3.1%, driven by strong performance in gaming, advertising, and FBS [1] - The gaming revenue in Q2 2025 increased by 22% to CNY 59.2 billion, surpassing both CICC's and consensus estimates by 5%. Overseas gaming revenue rose by 35%, while domestic gaming revenue grew by 17% [2] AI Integration - AI is enhancing various business segments, particularly in advertising where Q2 2025 revenue increased by 20% to CNY 35.8 billion, benefiting from AI-driven improvements in ad creation, placement, and analysis [1] - In cloud computing, AI demand is accelerating revenue growth, with enterprise service revenue in Q2 2025 expected to rise by 19% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year in Q2 2025, with VAS, advertising, and FBS business margins increasing by 3.4, 2, and 4.5 percentage points respectively [3] - Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 18.5% in Q2 2025, while Non-IFRS net profit increased by 10%, primarily due to lower-than-expected earnings from associates [3] Capital Expenditure and Share Buyback - In Q2 2025, Tencent's capital expenditure was CNY 19.1 billion, and the company repurchased shares worth HKD 19.4 billion, completing 46% of its annual buyback plan in the first half of 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised its revenue forecasts for Tencent Holdings (00700) for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 4% respectively, citing rapid growth across various business segments, while maintaining Non-IFRS net profit estimates unchanged [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's Q2 2025 revenue increased by 14.5% year-on-year to 184.5 billion yuan, exceeding CICC's expectations by 3.5% and market expectations by 3.1% [2] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q2 2025 rose by 10% to 63.05 billion yuan, aligning closely with CICC's estimates and surpassing market expectations by 1.6% [2] - The company’s gross margin improved by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, with VAS, advertising, and FBS business margins increasing by 3.4, 2, and 4.5 percentage points respectively [5] Group 2: Business Segments - The advertising business saw a 20% year-on-year revenue increase to 35.8 billion yuan, driven by AI applications in ad creation, placement, and analysis, leading to increased demand for video accounts, mini-programs, and WeChat search ads [3] - Q2 2025 game revenue grew by 22% year-on-year to 59.2 billion yuan, surpassing CICC's and market expectations by 5% [4] - Financial and enterprise services revenue increased by 10% year-on-year to 55.5 billion yuan, with financial technology revenue growing by 8% [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - CICC expects continued strong growth in Tencent's game revenue in the second half of 2025, supported by the performance of existing games and the upcoming launch of new titles [4] - The target price for Tencent has been raised by 17% to 700 HKD, reflecting a shift in valuation to 2026 with a corresponding 20x Non-IFRS P/E ratio, indicating a 19% upside potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's market value has increased by over $150 billion this year, but it still has a 26% gap to its historical peak, making its stock appear "cheap" compared to global tech giants [2][4] Group 1: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Tencent's current valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E ratio of 17.6, below its five-year average of 20 [4] - The average market expectation for Tencent's 12-month forward earnings per share has reached a historical high, with analysts predicting an 11% revenue growth for the second quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [4][5] - Investor sentiment is improving, as the cost of hedging Tencent's stock has decreased from its peak in April, with 66 buy ratings, the highest in the region [8] Group 2: Gaming Business as Growth Engine - The upcoming launch of the highly anticipated game "Valorant Mobile" is expected to drive revenue growth for Tencent from the second half of this year through mid-2026 [6] - The game "Delta Force" is also emerging as a potential long-term franchise, highlighting the strong cash generation capabilities of the gaming industry, especially amid profitability pressures on Chinese internet platforms [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's market capitalization has increased by over $150 billion this year, but it still has a 26% gap to its historical peak, indicating that the stock is trading at a significant discount compared to global tech peers like Meta and Sony [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Expectations - Analysts expect Tencent's revenue for the second quarter to grow by 11%, marking the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [1][3] - The average forecast for Tencent's 12-month forward earnings per share has reached a historical high, reflecting strong market confidence [3] - Tencent's stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 17.6, below its five-year average of 20, highlighting its valuation attractiveness compared to peers [3] Group 2: Gaming Business Outlook - The upcoming launch of the highly anticipated game "Valorant Mobile" is expected to drive revenue growth for Tencent from the second half of this year through mid-2026 [4] - The gaming sector remains a strong cash-generating industry, especially as other internet platforms in China face profitability pressures [6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Position - Investor sentiment towards Tencent is improving, with the cost of hedging its stock declining from peaks in April, and analysts generally maintaining a bullish outlook [6] - Tencent's diversified business model is seen as more defensive, allowing it to better navigate adverse factors such as tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties [3]