Seedance2.0 引市场关注，春节档票 房不及预期 ——传媒行业月报 传媒 分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 传媒相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《传媒行业分析报告：春节档表现低迷，票房 低于预期》 2026-02-25 《传媒行业月报：AI 流量入口竞争白热，春 节档电影供给丰富》 2026-01-28 《传媒行业分析报告：传媒 2025Q4 基金持仓 分析：重仓股配置力度环比下降，个股配置分 化》 2026-01-27 联系人：李智 ⚫ 行情回顾与估值表现：截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，2 月传媒指数下跌 3.73%，在 30 个一级行业组合中排名第 30，跑输同期上证指数 （+0.71%）4.45pct，跑输同期沪深 300 指数（+0.63%）4.36pct， 跑输同期创业板指（+0.25%）3.99pct。 子板块中，互联网广告营销板块下跌11.56%，游戏板块下跌4.25%， 出版板块下跌 0.04%，影视板块上涨 0.16%。 2026 年 2 月 1 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7][11]. Core Insights - The media industry (Shenwan) saw a significant increase of 13.10% from January 5 to January 11, 2026, outperforming the major indices [14][17]. - Key segments within the industry performed well, with advertising and marketing up 19.17%, television broadcasting up 15.15%, and gaming up 13.14% [14][17]. - The report highlights strong individual stock performances, particularly for companies like Inertia Media and BlueFocus, which saw increases of 52.62% and 49.13% respectively [17][18]. Industry Performance Summary Market Performance - The media industry outperformed the major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82% and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 4.40% during the same period [14][16]. - The advertising and marketing sector led the gains, followed by television broadcasting and gaming [14][16]. Key Data and Updates AI Applications - AI product rankings showed significant growth, with Gemini and DeepSeek increasing by 28% and 30% respectively [19][20]. - OpenRouter's weekly token usage rose by 15%, indicating a growing demand for AI applications [19][20]. Gaming - The top five mobile games on iOS as of January 10, 2026, included "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [23][25]. - New game releases are anticipated, including Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" on January 13, 2026 [27][26]. Film and Television - Domestic box office revenue reached 362 million yuan during the week of January 5-11, 2026, with "Hidden Kill" leading the charts [29][30]. - Seven new films are set to be released from January 12 to January 18, 2026 [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on themes such as AI applications and cultural exports, with specific attention to gaming, IP, short dramas, marketing, and publishing sectors [5][34]. - Notable companies to watch include Giant Network, Perfect World, and Kuaishou, all rated as "Buy" [5][34].

Core Insights - The 2025 App Store Awards by Apple highlighted 17 applications and games that blend creativity with technology, showcasing both well-known IPs and independent developers [1] - This year's winners feature a strong integration of AI technology, enhancing service efficiency and personalized user experiences [1] - Notably, Apple awarded the Annual App and Game Awards specifically for the China mainland region, recognizing CapWords and the tactical shooter game "Valorant: Source Action" for their alignment with local user needs [1] Group 1: CapWords - CapWords, awarded as the Annual App for the China mainland, offers an engaging language learning experience by allowing users to capture images of objects and generate vocabulary flashcards [2] - The app supports 12 languages, including English, French, Spanish, Russian, Portuguese, and Korean, with a focus on precise vocabulary recognition [2] - CapWords encourages active learning through a "scene + image" memory model, making it lightweight and user-friendly, with a subscription fee of 128 yuan per year for full features [5] Group 2: Valorant: Source Action - "Valorant: Source Action," awarded as the Annual Game for the China mainland, is a tactical shooter developed by Riot Games and Tencent's Photon Studio, achieving over 50 million monthly active users since its August 2025 launch [7] - The game successfully replicates the core appeal of PC gaming on mobile, featuring 18 unique heroes and 7 classic maps, enhancing tactical gameplay [7] - It offers various game modes and is designed to accommodate casual play, with free unlockable heroes and weapons, making it accessible for non-paying players [7][8] Group 3: Be My Eyes - Be My Eyes, recipient of the Cultural Impact Award, connects visually impaired users with over 8.2 million sighted volunteers for real-time assistance through video calls [11] - The app addresses daily challenges faced by visually impaired individuals, providing support in various scenarios, from reading labels to navigating outdoor environments [11] - Despite its effectiveness, the app faces challenges such as occasional mismatches between users and volunteers, highlighting areas for improvement in user experience [12]

Group 1 - The gaming sector demonstrated resilience on December 10, with the gaming ETF (159869) rising nearly 1.5% after a low opening, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Among the holdings, Jibite led with over a 3% increase, while Light Media and Giant Network both rose over 2.5%, showcasing a positive trend in key stocks [1] - The gaming ETF (159869) attracted a total of 211 million yuan in the last five trading days, with a total product scale reaching 11.383 billion yuan as of December 9, highlighting its appeal to investors [1] Group 2 - The China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association released a report indicating that the actual sales revenue of China's esports industry is projected to reach 29.331 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, the highest increase in three years [2] - The report suggests that the esports industry's core monetization capabilities are recovering after two consecutive years of decline since 2021 [2] - The gaming sector is experiencing multiple catalysts for transformation, including AI, content, and commercialization model changes, with the gaming ETF (159869) tracking the performance of A-share listed companies in the animation and gaming industry [2]

Core Insights - The App Store Awards for 2025 have been announced, featuring a distinct independent evaluation and award ceremony for the Chinese mainland region, recognizing both the App of the Year and Game of the Year categories [1] Group 1: Award Winners - The winners of the App Store Awards include: - App of the Year: Tiimo, which helps users plan daily tasks and establish life rhythms through visualization and smart tools [4] - Game of the Year: Pokémon TCG Pocket, which recreates the classic Pokémon experience through unique card collection and battle mechanics [4] - Cultural Impact Award: CapWords, developed by Ace, which facilitates English learning through an interactive sticker-based approach [3][4] Group 2: Notable Features and Trends - The awards highlighted the significant role of AI in enhancing user experience across various applications, with winners utilizing AI for daily planning, self-presentation, and academic research [8] - The game awards showcased titles that effectively leveraged platform-specific features, such as Cyberpunk 2077: Ultimate Edition on Mac, which utilized Apple silicon for enhanced graphics and performance [10] Group 3: Developer Support and Ecosystem - The App Store has introduced new features to support developers, including the Mini Apps Partner Program for flexible app development and increased exposure, as well as the App Store Connect API for managing app uploads [13] - New accessibility features have been launched to assist users with disabilities, providing information on app compatibility with various accessibility tools [12] Group 4: Recognition and Celebration - Award-winning development teams received a physical honor medal designed by Apple, made from 100% recyclable aluminum alloy, and were invited to a celebration event in Los Angeles [15]

Industry Dynamics - The China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association released the "2025 China Esports Industry Report," indicating that the actual sales revenue of China's esports industry will reach 29.331 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.40%, the highest increase in nearly three years, suggesting a recovery in the industry's monetization capabilities [3] - Apple announced the winners of the 2025 App Store Awards, with Tencent's "Valorant: Source Action" winning the Best Game award in mainland China [4] - Sony Interactive Entertainment awarded the 2025 PlayStation Partner Awards, recognizing miHoYo's "Honkai: Star Rail" and NetEase's "Marvel Duel" with outstanding partner awards [5] Domestic Company News - Guo Weiwei resigned as CEO of Xishanju due to personal career planning but will continue as Chief Producer, while Zou Tao, CEO of Kingsoft, will serve as acting CEO [7] - Kingsoft's subsidiary, Kingsoft Game, announced that the mobile game "Duck Duck Goose" will officially launch on January 7, 2026, with over 10 million real reservations [10] - Tencent's new game "Lock Kingdom: World" is set to launch on March 26, 2026, marking the 15th anniversary of Tencent's Magic Cube Studio [11] Overseas News - Netflix confirmed a final agreement to acquire Warner Bros. for $82.7 billion (approximately 584.714 billion yuan), with the deal expected to close in the third quarter of 2026 [13] Compliance and Regulation - The Korea Fair Trade Commission fined the developer of "MU Archangel," NetEase, 158 million won (approximately 759,800 yuan) for concealing core probability information in sales of probability-based items, constituting fraudulent behavior [15] Esports News - TT Esports, a subsidiary of Quwan Technology, is engaging in industry exchanges in North America, establishing preliminary cooperation frameworks with various organizations to enhance esports talent development and address weaknesses in mobile esports education in North American universities [17]

Market Overview - The overall market is experiencing a pullback, with a strong atmosphere of profit-taking [2] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.71%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 0.74%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.96%, indicating rising risk aversion [2] - The total trading volume in the market was approximately 217.6 billion HKD, with short selling amounting to about 44.5 billion HKD, representing 23.22% of the total trading volume [2] Sector Performance - The film and entertainment sector continues to see outflows, while the pharmaceutical sector is under pressure, particularly in areas like brain-machine interfaces and innovative drugs [3] - Commodity-related sectors are also showing weakness, with gold prices dropping approximately 180 USD from their highs, leading to declines in gold and non-ferrous metal stocks [3] - The electric power and new energy sectors are experiencing a downturn, with expectations for policy catalysts cooling off [3] Individual Stock Highlights - Lithium battery and new energy vehicle sectors are showing resilience, with lithium carbonate futures rising over 5%, driving stocks like Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) higher [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts a 30% increase in global lithium carbonate demand by 2026, potentially reaching 1.9 million tons, with prices possibly exceeding 150,000 RMB per ton [3] - Consumer-related sectors are performing relatively well, with stocks in baby products, food, and airlines showing gains, indicating a shift of defensive capital towards domestic demand [3] Company Analysis: Tencent Holdings (700.HK) - Tencent's gaming business exceeded expectations, with domestic market revenue reaching 42.8 billion HKD (up 15% YoY) and international market revenue at 20.8 billion HKD (up 43% YoY) [6] - The advertising business generated 36.24 billion HKD, reflecting a 21% YoY increase, driven by AI-enhanced targeting technology [7] - Financial technology and enterprise services recorded a revenue of 58.2 billion HKD in Q3, marking a 10% YoY growth, supported by improved consumer trends and AI-related services [7] Ecosystem and AI Development - Tencent's WeChat and QQ platforms maintain strong user engagement, with WeChat's monthly active users at 1.414 billion (up 2% YoY) and QQ's at 517 million (down 8% YoY) [8] - The company is advancing in AI technology, with its mixed foundation model achieving industry-leading levels in image and 3D generation [8] - The integration of AI in advertising is enhancing marketing ROI, significantly improving efficiency across various sectors [8] Investment Recommendation - Tencent's Q3 2025 performance demonstrates the deep integration of AI across its business lines, showcasing strong growth resilience in gaming, advertising, and enterprise services [9] - The company is projected to maintain growth through AI-driven advertising efficiency, new game launches, and consumer recovery [9] - A target price of 788 HKD is set, corresponding to a 25.7x PE for 2025 and 23.0x for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent aims to integrate AI capabilities into its ecosystem, with a vision for WeChat to eventually launch an AI agent that understands user needs and can perform various tasks within its ecosystem [15]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent reported a total revenue growth of 15% year-on-year, with gross profit increasing by 22% and operating profit rising by 18% according to non-IFRS standards [4]. - All three main business segments showed double-digit growth: Value-added services grew by 16% to RMB 95.9 billion; Marketing services increased by 21% to RMB 36.2 billion; and FinTech and Business Services rose by 10% to RMB 58.2 billion [4]. Gaming Sector - Tencent's gaming revenue experienced a high growth rate of 23%, with domestic market growth at 15% and international market growth at 43% [5]. - The success of new games like "Delta Action" and the sustained performance of long-standing titles such as "Honor of Kings" contributed to this growth [5][11]. - "Delta Action" is positioned to become a leading title in the Chinese gaming market, with plans for platformization to enhance user-generated content and expand gameplay [9][10]. Advertising and AI Integration - The advertising business saw a 21% revenue growth, driven by increased ad loading rates and AI-driven ad targeting [13]. - Tencent launched AIMarketingPlus, an automated advertising solution that enhances marketing ROI for advertisers [13]. - AI services are also boosting enterprise service revenue, with significant growth attributed to increased demand for AI solutions [13][14]. Future Outlook and Capital Expenditure - Tencent's ideal blueprint includes the development of an AI agent within WeChat, leveraging its extensive ecosystem to serve as an ideal assistant for users [15]. - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease in 2025 compared to previous guidance but will remain higher than in 2024 [16].

Core Insights - Tencent maintained a steady performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue increasing by 15% year-on-year, gross profit rising by 22%, and operating profit up by 18% according to non-IFRS standards [1] - All three main business segments achieved double-digit growth: value-added services grew by 16% to RMB 95.9 billion, marketing services increased by 21% to RMB 36.2 billion, and fintech and enterprise services rose by 10% to RMB 58.2 billion [1] Gaming Performance - Tencent's gaming revenue saw a significant growth of 23%, with domestic market growth at 15% and international market growth at 43% [2] - The success of new games like "Delta Action" and the sustained performance of established titles such as "Honor of Kings" contributed to this growth [2][5] - "Delta Action" is positioned as a key product, aiming to become a leading title in the Chinese gaming market through a platformization strategy [3][4] Advertising and AI Integration - The advertising revenue grew by 21%, driven by increased ad loading rates and AI-driven ad targeting, which improved eCPM [6] - Tencent is enhancing its AI capabilities within its social platforms, with plans to introduce an AI agent in WeChat that can understand user needs and execute tasks across its ecosystem [7] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Tencent's capital expenditure is projected to decrease in 2025 compared to previous guidance but will still be higher than in 2024, reflecting a strategic shift after significant investments in AI [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant achievements of NetEase's game "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng," which has surpassed 10 million overseas pre-registrations, reflecting the success of China's "game going global" strategy and local support policies [1] - The game ranks in the top 30 of Steam's wishlist and top 5 in active rankings, with the PS version also performing well in over 20 regions [1] - The success of "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng" serves as a valuable experience for domestic developers in exploring high-quality and globalized paths, potentially encouraging more investment in premium game development [1] Group 2 - Epic Games officially released "Unreal Engine 5.7," focusing on large-scale world building and high-fidelity rendering innovations, empowering developers to create detailed and realistic environments efficiently [2] - The stable procedural content generation framework (PCG) in this version allows developers to quickly populate vast environments with natural randomness, significantly lowering the technical barriers and development costs [2] - The introduction of the PCG editing mode and experimental procedural vegetation editor (PVE) enables artists to create high-quality vegetation without coding, fostering innovation and visual breakthroughs in the gaming industry [2] Group 3 - Tencent's third-quarter financial report shows a revenue of 192.87 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 20% to 64.94 billion yuan [3] - The company's international game revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, marking a 43% year-on-year growth, demonstrating the effectiveness of its globalization strategy [3] - The strong performance of Tencent's gaming business, driven by new titles like "Delta Force," highlights its ability to produce blockbuster games and validates its dual-driven model of domestic stability and overseas growth [3]