交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 今日焦点 | 挚文集团 | | MOMO US | | --- | --- | --- | | 经营利润超预期，海外新产品维持强劲増势 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 美元 7.88 | 目标价: 美元 9.40↑ | 潜在涨幅: +19.3% | | 赵丽, CFA | zhao.li@bocomgroup.com | | 我们将估值基准切换至 2026 年，考虑行业估值中枢上移，基于 8 倍 2026 年市盈率，上调目标价至 9.4 美元，维持买入。 业绩回顾：2025 年 2 季度收入 26.2 亿元，同比降 3%。经调整运营利润 4.5 亿元，高于我们预期的 3.9 亿元，主要受益于好于预期的成本控制及 探探营销渠道优化。海外收入持续扩张，同比增 73%，收入占比提升至 17%。 展望：我们预计 2025 年 3 季度收入同比降 2%。主播税收合规强化影响 下，公司或将提高分成激励，预计对陌陌收入影响可控，但毛利率将有 所下降。预计 3 季度海外收入同比增 62%，Amar、Yaahlan 有望维持强 劲增长。考虑派息预提税率调整影响及潜 ...

网易方面，《蛋仔派对》维持亮眼表现，海外新游释放流水增量。本土流水同比增2亿元/3%，新游及 《蛋仔派对》增量贡献抵消《逆水寒》等高基数影响。《燕云十六声》维持2-3亿元月流水量级，《蛋 仔派对》受周年新版本及暑期运营拉动，8月单月流水维持超10亿元高位。海外流水同比增0.5亿 元/8%，仍受益于新游流水增量贡献。 新游关注：1)腾讯《无畏契约：源能行动》8月19日公测，最高登本土iOS游戏畅销榜第4名，该行估算 首月流水5-7亿元，基本符合该行此前预期。2)网易射击手游《命运：群星》8月28日国际服上线，最高 登美国iOS游戏畅销榜第21名，上线前10日合计流水约4000万元，该行估算首月流水或超1亿元。 腾讯方面，重点新游上线，缓和本土手游流水高基数影响。本土流水同比净减22亿元/10%，主因 《MDnF》高基数，部分被新游增量所抵消。《三角洲行动》8月流水环比有所回落，但仍高于7亿元。 海外流水同比增4.7亿元/9%，主因《皇室战争》等游戏增量抵消《荒野乱斗》高基数影响。《皇室战 争》8月流水超7亿元，同/环比增360%/20%，持续受益于头部KOL直播、匹配机制优化、玩法创新及热 门IP联动，9月2日 ...

Group 1 - Tencent's gaming revenue is expected to grow by 16% for the year, despite a decline in domestic game revenue due to high base effects from previous titles [1] - New game launches are expected to offset the decline in older game revenues, with a strong pipeline of upcoming titles [1] - Tencent's overseas revenue increased by 4.7 billion yuan, driven by games like "Clash Royale," which saw significant growth in both year-on-year and month-on-month comparisons [1] Group 2 - NetEase's mobile game revenue maintained a year-on-year increase of 2 billion yuan, supported by new titles and the performance of "Egg Party" [2] - The overseas revenue for NetEase grew by 0.5 billion yuan, benefiting from new game releases [2] - Upcoming new games include Tencent's "Valorant: Source Action," which is projected to generate 5-7 billion yuan in its first month, and NetEase's "Destiny: Stars," expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in its first month [2]

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 10 日 今日焦点 | 顺丰同城 | | | 9699 HK | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多元布局下，盈利持续释放 | | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 | 13.68 | 目标价: 港元 15.40↑ | 潜在涨幅: +12.6% | | 谷馨瑜,CPA | | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 基于显著好于预期的上半年收入增速，以及 3 季度环比加速提升的即时 配送业务需求，我们上调 2025-27 年收入 14%/12%/12%，至 220 亿-304 亿元，同比增速 40%/20%/15%，同时受到公司单量密度提升、优质的骑 手管理能力，以及 AI 加持下，运营费率的持续优化，我们上调 2025-27 年利润预测 26%/23%/27%，至 3.4 亿-7.6 亿元，Non-IFRS 净利润率分别 1.5%/2%/2.6%。 我们认为顺丰同城仍是外卖补贴战的受益方之一，在未来补贴回归理性 ，业务空间仍大，考虑到长期其与顺丰的业务协同持续加深，无人车配 送规模化落地持续降低成本，我们维持公司 ...

9月9日，移动应用数据分析机构Sensor Tower发布了8月中国手游发行商全球收入排行榜。数据显示，8 月中国手游市场表现活跃，在全球手游领域持续展现强大影响力。 腾讯凭借多款旗舰产品的稳健表现，收入增长10%，继续稳坐中国手游发行商全球收入榜首。其中， 《和平精英》携手现象级电影《哪吒之魔童闹海》开启联动，日流水大幅跃升，连续5日霸榜中国iOS 手游畅销榜首，8月内购收入环比劲增28%；《王者荣耀》《PUBG MOBILE》等也持续发力，为腾讯 的收入增长提供坚实支撑。 世纪华通子公司"点点互动"同样表现出色，旗下《Whiteout Survival》《Kingshot》和《Tasty Travels: Merge Game》等多款王牌手游收入全线飘红，推动全球营收环比增长11%，稳居发行商收入榜第2名。 《Whiteout Survival》和《Kingshot》累计收入分别突破33亿美元和3亿美元，强势包揽8月出海手游收 入榜冠亚军。 数据显示，2025年8月，共32家中国厂商入围全球手游发行商收入榜TOP100，合计吸金20.4亿美元，占 本期全球TOP100手游发行商收入35.1%（不包含中国地 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance on August 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.39% closing at 3888 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.26% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.75% [1] - The total trading volume was 2.68 trillion yuan, a decrease of 462.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating a phase of adjustment after high trading volumes [1] Sector Performance Consumer Electronics - GoerTek's stock surged due to expectations for iPhone 17 series orders and its precision manufacturing capabilities extending into the VR/AR sector [2] - Lixun Precision's 6.8% increase further validates the valuation recovery momentum of leading companies in the consumer electronics sector [2] Huawei Ascend - Tuowei Information's stock hit the limit up, driven by breakthroughs in Huawei's Ascend 384 super node computing solution, which addresses single-point computing shortcomings [3] - The market anticipates growth in domestic computing capabilities, with a projected annual growth rate of 30% for smart computing in China, expected to exceed 40% by 2025 [3] Gaming Industry - The gaming sector is witnessing a recovery, highlighted by the National Press and Publication Administration issuing 173 game licenses in August, the highest this year [4] - Companies like Sanqi Interactive Entertainment are benefiting from this trend, with projections indicating a 191% year-on-year increase in net profits for the gaming industry in the first half of 2025 [4] Rare Earth Permanent Magnets - Northern Rare Earth's stock fell over 7% amid a three-week decline in the rare earth price index, reflecting weak demand from the electric vehicle and wind power sectors [5] - Despite short-term supply constraints, long-term price trends for rare earths are expected to remain upward, with regulatory measures likely increasing industry concentration [5] Capital Flow Dynamics - Main capital inflows were observed in the computer, electronics, and media sectors, while outflows were noted in pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals [6] - Tuowei Information attracted 1.786 billion yuan in capital, while Northern Rare Earth faced a sell-off of 4.594 billion yuan, indicating a rapid shift in market focus towards "technology growth and policy benefits" [6] - The adjustment in the market reflects a rebalancing of profit realization and risk appetite, with clear trends in consumer electronics innovation, domestic substitution in computing, and policy support for the gaming industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q2 2025 earnings report exceeded market expectations, showcasing strong growth across all major business segments, driven by its AI strategy [4][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent reported revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit of 55.6 billion yuan, up 17% [4]. - The stock price surged by 4.74% following the earnings announcement, pushing its market capitalization back above 5 trillion HKD [4]. - All three main business segments showed robust performance: gaming revenue increased by 22%, advertising grew by 20%, and financial technology and enterprise services rose by 10% [4]. Group 2: Gaming Business - The gaming segment remains a significant revenue driver, with domestic game revenue reaching 40.4 billion yuan (up 17%) and international revenue at 18.8 billion yuan (up 35%) [6]. - The game "Delta Action" achieved over 20 million daily active users in July, while "Honor of Kings" became the only mobile game globally to surpass 1 billion USD in revenue in the first half of 2025 [6]. - Tencent's gaming strategy combines local and international markets, with a strong pipeline of new releases, including "Fearless Covenant: Source Action" set to launch on August 19 [6]. Group 3: Advertising Business - Tencent's marketing services revenue reached 35.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth and marking 11 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [8]. - AI technology has significantly enhanced advertising effectiveness, with WeChat and WeChat combined monthly active users reaching 1.411 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year [9]. - The integration of AI in advertising has transformed Tencent's approach from relying solely on traffic to leveraging precision marketing, enhancing overall profitability [9]. Group 4: AI Empowerment - Tencent's R&D expenditure reached 20.25 billion yuan, a 17% increase, while capital expenditure surged to 19.11 billion yuan, up 119%, primarily for AI infrastructure [11]. - The breakthrough in the "Hunyuan" model, with over 2.3 million downloads, showcases Tencent's advancements in AI capabilities [11]. - AI applications are being integrated across various business lines, including gaming and WeChat functionalities, contributing to a 20% year-on-year revenue growth in mini-games [11]. Group 5: New Growth Points - The acceleration in enterprise services indicates a shift towards industrial internet, with increased demand for GPU leasing and API tokens [12]. - Tencent's international expansion is evident, with WeChat mini-programs covering 92 countries and regions, and its payment network connecting 2.6 million overseas merchants [12]. Group 6: Strategic Transformation - Tencent has transformed from a gaming company to an AI-driven technology giant, with a 30% increase in stock price and a market capitalization increase of over 170 billion USD in 2025 [15]. - The company faces ongoing challenges, including maintaining innovation in gaming and closing the gap with international AI leaders [16]. - The earnings report signals a broader trend in China's tech industry, moving from model innovation to hard tech innovation, driven by AI [17].

Core Insights - NetEase reported a net revenue of 27.9 billion yuan for Q2, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.6 billion yuan, up 27.26% year-on-year [5][6] - Following the release of the Q2 earnings report, NetEase's stock price fell by 3.88% despite a significant increase in stock prices after the Q1 report [4][5] - CEO Ding Lei emphasized a balanced approach to marketing expenses, indicating that spending will be strategic and based on necessity [7][8] Financial Performance - For Q2, NetEase's net income was 27.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, and a net profit of 8.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 27.26% increase [5][6] - The revenue from gaming and related services reached 22.8 billion yuan, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, while other segments like NetEase Youdao and NetEase Cloud Music saw declines [5][6] - Total operating expenses for Q2 were 9 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, with marketing expenses showing a minor increase of 2.18% [6][7] Strategic Focus - Ding Lei's return to the company has led to significant cost control measures, particularly in marketing expenses, which were reduced from 4.02 billion yuan in Q1 to 2.696 billion yuan [7][8] - The company is focusing on the shooting game segment, which is described as a "huge and red ocean" market, indicating intense competition [10][11] - New game launches, including "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" and others, are expected to contribute positively to long-term growth, with positive early performance reported [8][9] Market Position - NetEase's online gaming revenue for Q2 was approximately 22.1 billion yuan, accounting for 97.1% of the gaming segment's revenue, with growth driven by several successful titles [8][10] - The competitive landscape includes significant challenges from Tencent, which has launched successful shooting games, increasing the pressure on NetEase to innovate and maintain quality [10][11] - The company plans to continue expanding its overseas gaming presence, anticipating growth in international markets over the next two to three years [11]

Core Insights - The Chinese animation and gaming industry is experiencing significant growth, with the market expected to exceed 270 billion yuan in 2024, making China the largest market globally for the "二次元" (2D) culture [2] - Major events like ChinaJoy and BiliBili World are becoming increasingly competitive, with cities vying for the rights to host these exhibitions, reflecting the rising commercial value of the industry [2] - The "痛" (pain) culture, characterized by the decoration of personal items with anime and gaming merchandise, is driving consumer interest and economic value, as evidenced by the rapid ticket sales for events like BW 2025 [4] Industry Trends - The rise of "痛" culture is linked to the continuous upgrade of domestic gaming companies, which are now focusing on creating a full IP value chain around popular games [4][5] - Companies like叠纸游戏 and米哈游 are successfully launching high-quality merchandise and achieving significant sales, indicating a strong market for IP-related products [4][5] - The trend of cross-industry collaborations is growing, with more consumer brands seeking partnerships with gaming and entertainment companies to tap into the lucrative market of IP merchandise [5] Event Dynamics - Major gaming companies are leveraging events like ChinaJoy to showcase their products, with companies like世纪华通 and网易游戏 presenting a diverse range of games and attracting large crowds [6][7] - The immersive experience provided at these events is crucial for gathering player feedback and enhancing marketing strategies, as players increasingly value firsthand experiences over traditional marketing [8] - The focus on high-quality, boutique games is reshaping the industry, with player reviews and word-of-mouth becoming critical for the success of new game launches [8]

Core Insights - The shooting game genre has become the most popular segment at the recent ChinaJoy event, with major companies like Tencent, NetEase, and Lilith attracting large crowds to their game demo areas [1][2] - The summer gaming market remains competitive, with over ten key products scheduled for release in August, including various genres such as MMORPGs and shooting games [2] Game Releases - On August 7, three major games were launched: Perfect World's "Zhu Xian 2," Lilith's "Light of 84," and NetEase's "Spirit Beast Adventure" [3] - "Zhu Xian 2," a new MMORPG developed by Perfect World, has been in development for over four years and is expected to strengthen the company's position in the genre [3] - NetEase's "Spirit Beast Adventure" is a 3D turn-based pet-catching game set in an Eastern mythology world, featuring strategic battles and social gameplay [3] Upcoming Titles - NetEase plans to begin testing "Destiny: Stars" on August 15, with a global launch expected on August 28. This game is a collaboration with Bungie and is based on the popular "Destiny" IP [4] - Lilith's "Light of 84," a shooting game that combines hero shooting and battle royale elements, is set for public testing on August 7 [4] - Tencent's "Valorant: Source Action," a mobile FPS developed in collaboration with Riot Games, is scheduled for release on August 19, with over 60 million pre-registrations [5] Market Dynamics - The shooting game segment is experiencing intense competition, with many companies launching new titles to capitalize on the summer gaming season and the visibility from ChinaJoy [7] - Despite the crowded market, companies are motivated to innovate and break through existing gameplay limitations, as significant rewards await those who achieve quality and gameplay breakthroughs [7]