1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, while caustic soda dropped by over 4%. The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation in the Middle East, with expectations of inflation rising and potential impacts on various commodity prices. Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [6][7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on March 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, and lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, fuel oil, and pure benzene rose by over 4%. In terms of declines, caustic soda dropped by over 4%, and synthetic rubber and industrial silicon fell by over 2%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.33%, while the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.23%. In the bond futures market, all varieties rose. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:23 on March 30, funds flowed into the Shanghai gold 2606 and Shanghai silver 2606 contracts, and flowed out of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 2606 and CSI 2606 contracts [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end. Tensions in the Middle East may push up oil prices and reignite inflation, with some Fed officials sending hawkish signals. Global copper smelting capacity is shrinking, and the utilization rate of recycled copper smelting capacity has declined. In March, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but there are maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and imports may increase. Copper demand has increased, but terminal consumption in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors has declined. In the long - term, the supply - tight situation supports copper prices [9][11] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed high, rising by over 4% during the day. In March, the start - up rate decreased, and in February, imports increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, upstream production gradually increased, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium mine复产, which is a potential negative factor. In April, the production of lithium batteries increased, but the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a trend of accumulation, and downstream demand growth may slow down. The rise in the futures price is mainly due to supply - side disruptions, and the overall domestic supply of lithium mines still needs to be monitored for the domestic复产 rhythm. The situation in the Middle East may affect the price of lithium carbonate [12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the near - halt of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although IEA has released strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The U.S. has relaxed some sanctions, and Iraq has reached an agreement to resume oil exports. However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the risk of an oil price spike still exists [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the planned production in April decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, downstream construction rates mostly increased, and shipments increased, but they are still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly. The market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries due to the situation in the Middle East. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [15][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. On March 28, the start - up rate of PP enterprises decreased, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 28, the plastic start - up rate remained at around 80%. As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. New production capacity has been put into operation in 2026, and the start - up rate has continued to decline recently. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of plastic will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [19] 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The start - up rate of PVC increased, and the downstream average start - up rate also increased, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have increased. Social inventories have increased slightly, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. PVC has the expectation of anti - involution, and the upstream raw material supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, falling during the day. Domestic mine production resumed smoothly, but the output of clean coal decreased. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories, and coke production increased. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and market acceptance of high prices is low. The impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has weakened, and it is expected that the price will gradually return to the fundamental logic [22] 3.2.9 Urea - The urea spot market was stable on the weekend, and the trading activity was acceptable. Factories have pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices. Internationally, urea is in short supply, while in China, supply is relatively abundant. After the end of agricultural demand, the downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, and the inventory of urea factories has decreased significantly. It is expected that urea will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 3rd, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with some hitting the daily limit, while some others like lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin hit the daily limit down, and stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed performance [4][5] - The prices of various futures are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal factors, with different futures showing different trends and potential risks [6][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Container Shipping Europe Line, Fuel Oil, SC Crude Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Methanol, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Plastic, Polypropylene (PP), Ethylene Glycol (EG) hit the daily limit; Propylene rose over 8%; Pure Benzene rose nearly 7%; p - Xylene (PX), Styrene (EB), Asphalt rose nearly 5%; Apple and Coking Coal rose over 4% [4][5] - **Losers**: Lithium Carbonate and Shanghai Tin hit the daily limit down; Shanghai Silver fell over 9%; Platinum fell over 8%; Palladium fell over 6% [5] - **Stock Index Futures**: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 1.29%; SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.83%; CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 4.24%; CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 3.57% [5] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%; 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract remained flat; 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.01%; 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract rose 0.09% [5] - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:21 on March 3rd, Apple 2605 had an inflow of 751 million, Fuel Oil 2605 had an inflow of 386 million, and Crude Oil 2604 had an inflow of 345 million; Shanghai Gold 2604 had an outflow of 7.552 billion, Shanghai Silver 2604 had an outflow of 4.520 billion, and Lithium Carbonate 2605 had an outflow of 4.155 billion [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper opened low and moved lower, with a decline on the day. The US ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months in February, and the Iran conflict may increase inflation pressure. A bridge collapse in Zambia disrupted copper exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but restoration work was underway. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.69 tons month - on - month, a 3.13% decline, and was expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March, with a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. The demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream terminals, and the copper market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with the price under pressure [6] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened low and moved lower, hitting the daily limit on the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 161,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11,500 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 157,500 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 11,500 yuan/ton. The supply was affected by seasonal and holiday - related production cuts in February, with an expected output of 81,900 tons, a 16% month - on - month decrease. Downstream battery production remained relatively high, and inventory decreased by about 2,900 tons. However, due to geopolitical conflicts and changes in tariff policies, the price dropped significantly [8] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the subsequent production plan may be adjusted. The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased significantly beyond expectations. After the US and Israel attacked Iran, Iran retaliated, and the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, affecting oil transportation. Qatar's liquefied natural gas production was also affected. The Middle East situation remains tense, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [9][11] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% last week, and it is expected to produce 2.187 million tons in March 2026, a 13.0% month - on - month increase. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, but the overall shipment volume decreased, and the factory inventory increased. The supply of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil is uncertain, and asphalt prices are expected to rise with crude oil prices, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [12][14] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 27th, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. On March 3rd, the PP企业开工率 was around 79%, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing increased. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased, and it is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation has a positive impact on PP, but the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the L - PP spread is recommended to stop profit and wait and see [15] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 3rd, the plastic开工率 was around 91%. As of the week of February 27th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased, and it is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has a positive impact on plastic. New production capacity was put into operation at the beginning of the year, and the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the L - PP spread is recommended to stop profit and wait and see [16][17] 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwestern region decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08%, and the downstream开工率 increased after the Spring Festival but is still lower than the same period last year. Export orders may be at a low level in March, the social inventory is high, and the real - estate market recovery is slow. PVC has a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and is expected to fluctuate strongly [18] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened high and moved high, rising over 4% on the day. The import of Mongolian coal is gradually recovering, and domestic mines are resuming work, with an increase in mine inventory. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The iron water output has increased, but there may be short - term interference during the Two Sessions. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price rose, but there is a risk of correction in the future [20] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened low and moved low on the day. The futures price decline affected the spot trading activity. The daily output has reached around 220,000 tons, and the upstream inventory is lower than the same period last year. March is the peak agricultural demand season, and the demand for high - nitrogen compound fertilizers is expected to support urea. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and there is a risk of a compensatory increase [21]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: March 2, 2026 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, etc. 1. Market Performance 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 2, most domestic futures main contracts were up. Contracts such as container shipping to Europe, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), SC crude oil, etc. hit the daily limit. Shanghai silver rose over 9%, and some other contracts like p-xylene (PX), PTA, and synthetic rubber rose over 6%. In terms of declines, polysilicon fell over 2% and live pigs fell nearly 2% [7]. - Among stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.07%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.06%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) fell 0.07%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.15%. Among treasury bond futures, the main contracts of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) all rose [8]. 1.2 Fund Flows - As of 15:27 on March 2, funds flowed into contracts such as Shanghai gold 2604 (4.837 billion yuan), CSI 2603 (1.563 billion yuan), and Shanghai silver 2604 (1.539 billion yuan). Funds flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai tin 2604 (871 million yuan), lithium carbonate 2605 (626 million yuan), and cotton 2605 (563 million yuan) [8]. 2. Market Analysis of Specific Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, rising during the day. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.69 tons MoM (3.13%), and is expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March. The demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. The downstream is resistant to high copper prices, and the copper product sector is under pressure. Overall, the copper market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, copper prices may be under pressure and fluctuate, and are expected to be strong in the long term [10][11]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 172,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade is 169,000 yuan/ton. Due to seasonal and holiday factors, the supply of lithium carbonate raw materials decreased in February. The downstream battery production is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory has decreased. The new 15% tariff and the "rush to export" expectation support the price. However, the short-term impact of geopolitical conflicts is limited, and the price may fluctuate [12]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The EIA data shows a large increase in US crude oil inventory. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, Iran's oil production and exports are affected, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a great impact on the price [13][14]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt supply is weak, with the operating rate at a low level. In March, the domestic asphalt production is expected to increase by 13.0% MoM. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the overall supply and demand are still weak. The price is expected to follow the rise of crude oil prices, and the arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [15][17]. 2.5 PP - As of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased seasonally. The PP enterprise operating rate is at a neutral-low level, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The rise in crude oil prices has a significant impact on PP. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [18]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic operating rate is at a neutral-high level, and the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the plastic price will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [19][20]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate is gradually recovering. The export is expected to decline, and the social inventory is still high. The PVC price is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to be strong in the long term due to policy and maintenance expectations [21]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, rebounding slightly during the day. The supply of imported coal is gradually recovering, and the domestic mine production is increasing. The inventory of coking coal mines has increased, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and policy expectations [23]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The spot price has risen. The supply is high, the inventory is low, and the demand is expected to be high. It is expected that urea will fluctuate strongly in March, and attention should be paid to the impact of national reserve release on the price [24][26].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed results with the main contracts experiencing both gains and losses as of February 12, 2026 [1][4] - The shipping European index increased by over 6%, while lithium carbonate rose by more than 3% [1][4] - Other commodities such as urea, soybean meal, and eggs saw increases exceeding 2%, while several others including butadiene rubber, palladium, and silicon iron fell by more than 1% [1][4] Group 2 - Specific futures contracts reported significant changes, with the shipping European index at 1258.9, reflecting a 6.40% increase [2][5] - Lithium carbonate futures reached 149,420, marking a 3.66% rise, while urea futures were at 1,843, up by 2.79% [2][5] - In contrast, butadiene rubber futures decreased by 1.93%, and palm oil futures fell by 1.50% [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market experienced a majority of upward movements on December 24, 2025, with significant increases in platinum, palladium, and silver prices, while some commodities like shipping indices and polysilicon saw declines [3][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contracts for platinum and palladium on the Guangxi Futures Exchange hit the daily limit, with silver rising over 8%, lithium carbonate increasing nearly 6%, and nickel up over 4% [3][7]. - In contrast, the shipping index (European line), polysilicon, and soybean meal saw declines of over 1% and nearly 1%, respectively [3][7]. Group 2: Futures Analysis - New Lake Futures noted that changes in European fuel vehicle policies have reopened demand for platinum and palladium, which had previously decreased due to the rise of electric vehicles. This, combined with rising gold and silver prices, has driven recent price increases for platinum and palladium [5]. - Guoxin Futures expects platinum group metals to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with the potential for platinum contracts to hit the daily limit again due to strong external market signals [9]. - Everbright Futures indicated that silver, platinum, and palladium continue to follow gold price trends, with strong market sentiment supporting their prices. However, caution is advised against potential market overheating [9]. - Ruida Futures highlighted that platinum prices may continue to be supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, ongoing structural supply-demand deficits, and long-term demand growth in the hydrogen economy. Conversely, palladium demand is expected to weaken due to over-concentration in automotive catalysts and the rise of electric vehicles, leading to a shift from supply shortages to oversupply [9].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on December 24, 2025, with significant gains in some commodities while others experienced declines [3][7]. Price Movements - Silver futures rose over 4%, while nickel and caustic soda increased by more than 2%. PX and copper also saw gains exceeding 1% [3][7]. - On the downside, butadiene rubber fell by more than 2%, and tin, ethylene glycol (EG), and coking coal dropped over 1% [3][7]. Trading Data - The trading volume and open interest for various contracts were reported, indicating active trading in specific commodities. For instance, the contract for silver (护银2602 M) had a trading volume of 881,059 and an open interest of 360,590 [8]. - Other notable contracts included lithium carbonate (碳酸锂2605 M) with a trading volume of 6,351 and an open interest of 670,874, and the contract for copper (国际铜2601 M) with a trading volume of 5 and an open interest of 3,184 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance with significant gains in precious metals like platinum and lithium carbonate, while some commodities like ethylene glycol and liquefied petroleum gas experience declines [4][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Platinum futures hit the limit up, while lithium carbonate and palladium rose over 5%, and silver increased by over 4% [4][9]. - Ethylene glycol (EG) fell by more than 3%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), along with raw wood and red dates, dropped over 1% [4][9]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Dongwu Futures predicts that precious metals will maintain an upward trend due to geopolitical conflicts, the onset of interest rate cuts, and the decline of the US dollar's credibility [8]. - Guotai Junan Futures notes that palladium does not exhibit the same liquidity issues as platinum, although the pace of ETF accumulation for palladium has slowed [5][8]. - GF Futures highlights that macroeconomic easing expectations combined with industrial support make prices undervalued relative to gold, suggesting a long-term upward trend with potential short-term pullbacks [5][8]. - New Lake Futures identifies palladium as a high-volatility trading product due to low inventory and high supply concentration, cautioning against heavy long-term holdings [5][8]. - Guoxin Futures observes that the strong performance of precious metals is supported by overall market sentiment and capital rotation, despite some cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials [6][9].

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance in early trading, with egg and Shanghai gold rising over 1% [1] - Iron ore, styrene (EB), and SC crude oil also increased nearly 1% [1] - On the downside, shipping rates on the European route and caustic soda fell over 2%, while logs, lithium carbonate, coking coal, Shanghai nickel, and ethylene glycol (EG) dropped over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts mostly rose at midday, with significant gains in shipping and chemical sectors [1] Group 1: Futures Market Performance - The main contract for shipping on the European route hit the daily limit, increasing by 15.99% [1] - Styrene (EB) rose by over 4%, while methanol, aluminum oxide, and ethylene glycol (EG) each increased by over 3.5% [1] - In contrast, urea experienced a decline of nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The majority of domestic futures main contracts have risen, with the European shipping index increasing by over 10% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG) and styrene (EB) have both risen by over 4% [1] - Butadiene rubber and bottle chips have increased by over 3% [1] Group 2 - In terms of declines, polysilicon has dropped by nearly 2% [1] - Urea has decreased by nearly 1% [1]