Market Overview - As of November 26, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with peanuts rising nearly 4% and polysilicon up nearly 3%, while the shipping index for Europe dropped nearly 8% [3][20] - The A-share market exhibited divergent trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%, reflecting a rotation of funds among high-dividend defensive sectors and oversold tech stocks [7] Commodity Predictions - The outlook for various commodities is categorized as follows: bullish for corn, crude oil, and glass; neutral for a wide range of products including aluminum and lithium; and bearish for soybean meal and palm oil [4] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in September increased by only 0.2%, indicating consumer fatigue amid rising prices due to tariffs, although economists expect robust economic growth in Q3 [5] - The U.S. government reported a fiscal deficit of $284 billion in October, influenced by a recent government shutdown and record tariff revenues [6] Specific Commodity Insights - Peanuts are expected to maintain stable prices with limited room for significant upward or downward adjustments, focusing on supply dynamics from Henan province [10][11] - The apple market is characterized by low inventory levels, providing price support, but faces pressure from seasonal fruit supply [11] - The pig market shows a slight rebound, but supply remains ample, leading to limited price recovery potential [12] - Coking coal and coke futures experienced declines, with supply remaining marginally loose but limited by production safety issues [13] - Silver futures rose by 1.79%, influenced by U.S. PPI data indicating inflationary pressures [14] - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 1.45%, but demand is expected to weaken seasonally [14] - Polysilicon futures rose by 2.93%, with production expected to stabilize [15] - Methanol futures saw a rise of 1.82%, supported by overseas production cuts [16] - Glass futures increased by 1.87%, driven by production cuts amid profit compression [17] - Fuel oil futures fell by 1.2%, affected by fluctuating demand and geopolitical factors [18] - Asphalt futures declined by 1.02%, reflecting weak demand due to seasonal construction slowdowns [19] - The European shipping index saw a significant drop of 7.62%, with mixed trends in shipping rates impacting market sentiment [20]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 26, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, and their price trends vary [6]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Peanuts rose nearly 4%, polysilicon rose nearly 3%, glass and Shanghai silver rose nearly 2%, and lithium carbonate, urea, and live pigs rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell nearly 8%, and polypropylene (PP), coke, coking coal, plastic, and fuel oil fell more than 1%. The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.41%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.14%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) remained flat, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.09%. The main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.21%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.36%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.86%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 26, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.313 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.266 billion yuan, and lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 919 million yuan; in terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 2.86 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 2.76 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 1.355 billion yuan [6][7]. Copper - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. The US economic data had little impact on copper prices. The copper concentrate inventory has been accumulating for a week, and the Indonesian Grasberg mine is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, and the refining fees remain stable. Although the import of refined copper has decreased, the domestic supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also been accumulating. The implementation of Policy 770 is yet to be determined, and the production of recycled copper rods in some regions has decreased. After the decline in copper prices last week, downstream procurement increased. Overall, after the Sino - US leaders' dialogue, the international risk expectation has eased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will be strong before the interest rate cut meeting [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, rising during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 92,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 90,400 yuan/ton, both rising by 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year. The price of spodumene has risen, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by seasonality. The demand for energy storage is expected to be strong, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly. The inventory of lithium carbonate has been continuously decreasing. The market is affected by industry news and sentiment [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year. The end of the peak demand season, the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, and the high - level US crude oil production have put pressure on the market. Geopolitical factors such as the conflict between the US and Venezuela, the armed conflict in Libya, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine also affect the market. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly [12][14]. Asphalt - The operating rate of asphalt last week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of downstream industries varied. The shipment volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of demand due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in asphalt futures prices [15]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn wire, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly. On November 26, some overhauled devices restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 83%. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the increase in supply due to new capacity and reduced overhauls, combined with the end of the peak season for downstream demand, are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in PP prices [16][17]. Plastic - On November 26, the operating rate of plastic remained at about 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The new capacity of some enterprises has been put into production, and the operating rate has slightly decreased. The destocking of petrochemicals has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in plastic prices [18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. The operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have increased export orders, but the quotes of Formosa Plastics in December have decreased. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The new capacity has been put into production, and it is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate weakly [19][20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, falling during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal decreased by 2 yuan/ton. In October, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year. The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased slightly. The inventory of mines has increased significantly, while the inventory of coking enterprises has decreased. The steel mill's operating rate and hot metal production have increased, but the profit has weakened. The coking coal price has recovered the previous increase, and there may be opportunities for the market to be boosted by winter storage meetings and major domestic meetings [21]. Urea - The futures price of urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong trend during the day. The spot price is still weak, but the low - price transactions in the market are good. The daily production is much higher than the same period in previous years, and it is expected to remain above 190,000 tons before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired devices. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed down. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has recovered, and the inventory of urea has decreased for several weeks. The market demand has improved, but the upward space is limited due to sufficient supply [23].

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7169 | 7130 | 7183 | 7121 | -51 | -0.71% | 580839 | 24526 | | Plastic 2605 | 7231 | 7187 | 7239 | 7175 | -41 | -0.57% | 41372 | 1271 | | Plastic 2609 | 7266 | 7229 | 7267 | 7222 | -35 | -0.48% | 145 | 53 | | PP2601 | 6917 | 6873 | 6927 | 6862 | -44 | -0.64% | 645243 | 35335 | | PP2605 | 6967 | 6929 | 6973 | 6919 | -30 | -0.43% | 73930 | 239 | | PP2609 | 6944 | 6912 | 6954 | 6907 | -14 | -0.20% | 1665 | 76 | [5] Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7130 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (-0.71%), with a trading volume of 210,000 lots and an increase of 24,526 lots in open interest to 580,839 lots. PP2601 closed at 6873 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.64%, with an increase of 35,300 lots in open interest to 645,200 lots [6]. - The futures market opened lower and fluctuated downward, which was negative for market sentiment. Some ex-factory prices were lowered, and traders followed suit. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was low, with only small orders being placed [6]. - The upstream maintenance level of polypropylene slightly exceeded expectations, with more units shutting down. Both the upstream capacity utilization rate and output decreased. In addition, due to the recent strengthening of propane prices, the profit of PDH units continued to be compressed, and the operating load rate declined, alleviating the supply-side pressure. Some maintenance units will restart this week, and output may increase month-on-month [6]. - The maintenance volume of PE has declined from its high level, and the supply pressure has increased month-on-month. Except for the increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, most other sectors remained flat. The peak season performance was lower than expected, and the downstream operating rate and order situation were at a relatively low level year-on-year. Factories were cautious in raw material procurement, showing a weak peak season and having limited support for the raw material market. The destocking rhythm of intermediate social inventories was slow, and there was limited upward momentum [6]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the macroeconomic environment has been realized, but the chemical sector showed a flat performance. There is still some support from the increasing demand for packaging products approaching the Double Festival, but market confidence is insufficient, and there is no large-scale replenishment behavior. The demand-driven force is limited, and the market is weak and fluctuating at a low level [6]. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 680,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 7.94%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7]. - The price of the PE market weakened and declined. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply-demand support in the market weakened, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to enter the market for procurement was not high. Propylene production enterprises had average sales and mostly offered discounts to promote sales. The market trading situation has not improved significantly [7]. - The PP market declined slightly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6700 - 6820 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6860 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6680 - 6900 yuan/ton [8] Data Overview - Graphs include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, settlement price of crude oil futures main contract, two - barrel oil inventory, and year - on - year increase/decrease of two - barrel oil inventory [14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Equity Index [2] - Cautiously Bearish: Treasury Bonds, Coke, Coking Coal, Carbonate Lithium [2][7] - Bearish: Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass, Crude Oil [6][7] - Bullish: Rubber [8] - Sideways: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Methanol, Polyolefins, Cotton [5][8] 2. Core Views - The equity index is on an upward trend with continuous inflow of funds and clear long - term narratives, so a long - position strategy should be maintained [2]. - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and lack of new positive factors [2]. - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and short - position strategies are recommended [7]. - Rubber's fundamentals are improving, and long - position strategies should be continued [3][8]. - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decisions [5]. - Silver maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - Copper prices are supported in the medium - to long - term by tight mine supply, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy [5]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are in a sideways pattern, with limited downward space for alumina and clear medium - term support for aluminum [5]. - Nickel prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern, and selling call options is recommended [5]. - Carbonate lithium supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [6]. - Polysilicon prices may decline due to the need for market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - Rebar prices are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - Coke prices are mainly sideways, and coking coal prices are under pressure [7]. - Float glass prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - Crude oil prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - Methanol prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - Cotton demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Equity Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index hit a ten - year high, and the bullish sentiment is rising. With continuous capital inflow and clear long - term narratives, the upward trend is clear, and long positions should be held [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is weak, affected by the strong stock market. Without new positive factors, the bearish pattern continues [2]. Commodity Futures - **Soda Ash**: The industry has an oversupply situation. With the possible commissioning of new devices, supply pressure will increase, and previous short positions in SA601 should be held [3][7]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, with stable demand and slow raw - material production increase. Long positions in RU2601 should be held [3][8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Prices are in a high - level sideways pattern. The Fed's interest - rate decisions and the speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium are key factors [5]. - **Silver**: Maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply is tight in the medium - to long - term, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy and the US dollar trend [5]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina has an overcapacity situation but low valuation, and aluminum has clear medium - term support. Both are in a sideways pattern [5]. - **Nickel**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, and prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern. Selling call options is recommended [5]. - **Lithium and Silicon** - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. Aggressive investors can hold previous short positions lightly [6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon supply is abundant, and polysilicon prices may decline due to market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - **Steel and Iron** - **Rebar**: Fundamentals are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options in RB2510C3300 is recommended [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - **Coal and Coke** - **Coke**: Prices are mainly sideways, affected by environmental protection policies on both supply and demand sides [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are under pressure due to weakening demand from steel and coke enterprises [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass** - **Soda Ash**: Maintains an oversupply situation, and previous short positions in the 01 contract should be held [7]. - **Float Glass**: Prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - **Chemicals** - **Methanol**: Prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: Demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, and long positions should be held [3][8].