1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - As of the close on March 4, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for the third consecutive day. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%. On the other hand, tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures also declined significantly. The prices and trends of various futures contracts were affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and seasonal factors [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for three consecutive days. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%, and plastics and propylene rose nearly 4% [5]. - **Losers**: Tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures fell over 4%, 4%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, also declined, while most treasury bond futures rose, except for the 30-year treasury bond futures [5][6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:19 on March 4, funds flowed into aluminum, fuel oil, and 10-year treasury bond futures, while large amounts of funds flowed out of gold, CSI, and CSI 1000 futures [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper prices opened low and rose slightly but remained weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of the Fed's interest rate cuts, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. It is expected to reach a record high in March. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper is expected to rise, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream consumers, and the demand for copper products is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased. Production is expected to decline in February due to seasonal and holiday factors. The overall inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals are short-term tight. The conflict between the United States and Iran has affected the delivery of energy storage batteries in the Middle East, and the export of terminals has been impacted. Although the peak season is approaching, the increase in demand is limited, and the price has some support [10]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and further production increase plans are to be determined. EIA data showed a significant build-up of crude oil inventories in the United States. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to disruptions in oil transportation and production. Iraq has cut production, and Qatar has stopped LNG production. Trump's offer to provide insurance and escort for oil tankers has caused oil prices to fluctuate. It is expected that oil prices will remain strong in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a significant impact on oil price volatility [11][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly last week and is at a low level compared to previous years. In March, domestic asphalt production is expected to increase month-on-month but decrease year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the overall demand remains weak. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, but the market is worried about a shortage of raw materials in March due to geopolitical factors. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow the increase in crude oil prices [13][15]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased seasonally, and the enterprise开工率 remained at a relatively low level. The proportion of standard-grade wire production increased. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has boosted the price of PP. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. It is expected that PP prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [16]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The开工率 of plastic increased after the restart of some maintenance devices and is currently at a neutral to high level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased seasonally, and the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has had a positive impact on the price of plastic. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. The import of PE from Iran accounts for a small proportion of the total, but the import from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion. It is expected that plastic prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [17][18]. 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region continued to decline. The开工率 of PVC increased and is at a neutral to high level. After the Spring Festival, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased but is still lower than the same period last year. The export of PVC is expected to be low in March due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the anti-subsidy investigation by India. The social inventory of PVC is still high, and the real estate market continues to adjust. Although the PVC market has a weak reality, it has strong expectations due to policy and maintenance expectations. It is expected that PVC prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [19]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices opened high and closed low. Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, and the inventory of coking coal mines has increased. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. After the Spring Festival, the production of molten iron in steel mills has increased slightly, but the reduction of emissions during the Two Sessions may affect short-term production. The real estate market has introduced some stimulus policies, but the performance of the terminal market still needs to be observed. After the impact of geopolitical conflicts in Iran on the coal market is realized, the price is expected to return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand and will be under pressure if the macro sentiment remains stable [20][21]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices opened high, fluctuated, and closed slightly higher. The trading volume decreased, and the price was relatively stable. The daily production of urea has reached around 220,000 tons, and there are no long-term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. After the Lantern Festival, compound fertilizer factories have resumed work, but the开工 rate in Hebei has been affected by environmental protection. The inventory of urea has started to decrease due to the continuation of agricultural demand and the increase in industrial demand. Although the international urea price is affected by the situation in the Middle East, it has little impact on the domestic market. The price of urea is expected to be range-bound, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a price increase driven by the energy and chemical sector [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 3rd, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with some hitting the daily limit, while some others like lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin hit the daily limit down, and stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed performance [4][5] - The prices of various futures are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal factors, with different futures showing different trends and potential risks [6][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Container Shipping Europe Line, Fuel Oil, SC Crude Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU), Methanol, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Plastic, Polypropylene (PP), Ethylene Glycol (EG) hit the daily limit; Propylene rose over 8%; Pure Benzene rose nearly 7%; p - Xylene (PX), Styrene (EB), Asphalt rose nearly 5%; Apple and Coking Coal rose over 4% [4][5] - **Losers**: Lithium Carbonate and Shanghai Tin hit the daily limit down; Shanghai Silver fell over 9%; Platinum fell over 8%; Palladium fell over 6% [5] - **Stock Index Futures**: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 1.29%; SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.83%; CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 4.24%; CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 3.57% [5] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%; 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract remained flat; 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.01%; 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract rose 0.09% [5] - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:21 on March 3rd, Apple 2605 had an inflow of 751 million, Fuel Oil 2605 had an inflow of 386 million, and Crude Oil 2604 had an inflow of 345 million; Shanghai Gold 2604 had an outflow of 7.552 billion, Shanghai Silver 2604 had an outflow of 4.520 billion, and Lithium Carbonate 2605 had an outflow of 4.155 billion [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper opened low and moved lower, with a decline on the day. The US ISM manufacturing index expanded for two consecutive months in February, and the Iran conflict may increase inflation pressure. A bridge collapse in Zambia disrupted copper exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but restoration work was underway. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.69 tons month - on - month, a 3.13% decline, and was expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March, with a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. The demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream terminals, and the copper market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with the price under pressure [6] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened low and moved lower, hitting the daily limit on the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 161,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11,500 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 157,500 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 11,500 yuan/ton. The supply was affected by seasonal and holiday - related production cuts in February, with an expected output of 81,900 tons, a 16% month - on - month decrease. Downstream battery production remained relatively high, and inventory decreased by about 2,900 tons. However, due to geopolitical conflicts and changes in tariff policies, the price dropped significantly [8] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the subsequent production plan may be adjusted. The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased significantly beyond expectations. After the US and Israel attacked Iran, Iran retaliated, and the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, affecting oil transportation. Qatar's liquefied natural gas production was also affected. The Middle East situation remains tense, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [9][11] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% last week, and it is expected to produce 2.187 million tons in March 2026, a 13.0% month - on - month increase. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, but the overall shipment volume decreased, and the factory inventory increased. The supply of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil is uncertain, and asphalt prices are expected to rise with crude oil prices, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [12][14] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 27th, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival. On March 3rd, the PP企业开工率 was around 79%, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing increased. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased, and it is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation has a positive impact on PP, but the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the L - PP spread is recommended to stop profit and wait and see [15] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 3rd, the plastic开工率 was around 91%. As of the week of February 27th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased, and it is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has a positive impact on plastic. New production capacity was put into operation at the beginning of the year, and the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the L - PP spread is recommended to stop profit and wait and see [16][17] 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwestern region decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08%, and the downstream开工率 increased after the Spring Festival but is still lower than the same period last year. Export orders may be at a low level in March, the social inventory is high, and the real - estate market recovery is slow. PVC has a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, and is expected to fluctuate strongly [18] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened high and moved high, rising over 4% on the day. The import of Mongolian coal is gradually recovering, and domestic mines are resuming work, with an increase in mine inventory. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The iron water output has increased, but there may be short - term interference during the Two Sessions. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price rose, but there is a risk of correction in the future [20] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened low and moved low on the day. The futures price decline affected the spot trading activity. The daily output has reached around 220,000 tons, and the upstream inventory is lower than the same period last year. March is the peak agricultural demand season, and the demand for high - nitrogen compound fertilizers is expected to support urea. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and there is a risk of a compensatory increase [21]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: March 2, 2026 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, etc. 1. Market Performance 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 2, most domestic futures main contracts were up. Contracts such as container shipping to Europe, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), SC crude oil, etc. hit the daily limit. Shanghai silver rose over 9%, and some other contracts like p-xylene (PX), PTA, and synthetic rubber rose over 6%. In terms of declines, polysilicon fell over 2% and live pigs fell nearly 2% [7]. - Among stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.07%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.06%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) fell 0.07%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.15%. Among treasury bond futures, the main contracts of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) all rose [8]. 1.2 Fund Flows - As of 15:27 on March 2, funds flowed into contracts such as Shanghai gold 2604 (4.837 billion yuan), CSI 2603 (1.563 billion yuan), and Shanghai silver 2604 (1.539 billion yuan). Funds flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai tin 2604 (871 million yuan), lithium carbonate 2605 (626 million yuan), and cotton 2605 (563 million yuan) [8]. 2. Market Analysis of Specific Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, rising during the day. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.69 tons MoM (3.13%), and is expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March. The demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. The downstream is resistant to high copper prices, and the copper product sector is under pressure. Overall, the copper market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, copper prices may be under pressure and fluctuate, and are expected to be strong in the long term [10][11]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 172,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade is 169,000 yuan/ton. Due to seasonal and holiday factors, the supply of lithium carbonate raw materials decreased in February. The downstream battery production is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory has decreased. The new 15% tariff and the "rush to export" expectation support the price. However, the short-term impact of geopolitical conflicts is limited, and the price may fluctuate [12]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The EIA data shows a large increase in US crude oil inventory. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, Iran's oil production and exports are affected, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a great impact on the price [13][14]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt supply is weak, with the operating rate at a low level. In March, the domestic asphalt production is expected to increase by 13.0% MoM. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the overall supply and demand are still weak. The price is expected to follow the rise of crude oil prices, and the arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [15][17]. 2.5 PP - As of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased seasonally. The PP enterprise operating rate is at a neutral-low level, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The rise in crude oil prices has a significant impact on PP. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [18]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic operating rate is at a neutral-high level, and the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the plastic price will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [19][20]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate is gradually recovering. The export is expected to decline, and the social inventory is still high. The PVC price is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to be strong in the long term due to policy and maintenance expectations [21]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, rebounding slightly during the day. The supply of imported coal is gradually recovering, and the domestic mine production is increasing. The inventory of coking coal mines has increased, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and policy expectations [23]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The spot price has risen. The supply is high, the inventory is low, and the demand is expected to be high. It is expected that urea will fluctuate strongly in March, and attention should be paid to the impact of national reserve release on the price [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) futures market experienced a strong surge at the beginning of 2026, driven by tightening fundamentals, robust cost support, and improved macro expectations, although the sustainability of this trend is under scrutiny. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply has contracted due to a peak in domestic PP plant maintenance, with several facilities undergoing planned and unplanned shutdowns, leading to a temporary tightening of supply [3] - Demand remains resilient, particularly in traditional sectors such as home appliances, automotive, and consumer goods, correcting previous overly pessimistic expectations, while social inventory has continued to deplete to low levels [3] Group 2: Cost Factors - Cost support is solid, with international oil prices remaining high due to geopolitical factors, and the cost of naphtha routes being robust. Domestic coal prices are also supported, reducing the cost advantage of coal-based routes, which together elevate the marginal cost of PP production, creating a strong price floor [4] Group 3: Macro Sentiment and Financial Dynamics - Improved macro sentiment and expectations for stable growth policies have enhanced market perceptions of manufacturing and consumption prospects. With low inventory levels and bullish logic, capital has actively entered the market, amplifying and accelerating the upward trend in the spot market due to the financial attributes of futures [5] - Despite the current market exuberance, there are potential risks and long-term challenges, including the unchanged trend of capacity expansion, which may lead to a loosening of the supply-demand balance, and the need for validation of downstream acceptance of high raw material prices and the sustainability of demand recovery [5] - The future direction of the market will depend on key verification points such as the actual progress of new capacity releases, the ability to maintain high cost levels, and the performance of the upcoming traditional peak demand season [5]

Market Overview - As of November 26, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with peanuts rising nearly 4% and polysilicon up nearly 3%, while the shipping index for Europe dropped nearly 8% [3][20] - The A-share market exhibited divergent trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%, reflecting a rotation of funds among high-dividend defensive sectors and oversold tech stocks [7] Commodity Predictions - The outlook for various commodities is categorized as follows: bullish for corn, crude oil, and glass; neutral for a wide range of products including aluminum and lithium; and bearish for soybean meal and palm oil [4] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in September increased by only 0.2%, indicating consumer fatigue amid rising prices due to tariffs, although economists expect robust economic growth in Q3 [5] - The U.S. government reported a fiscal deficit of $284 billion in October, influenced by a recent government shutdown and record tariff revenues [6] Specific Commodity Insights - Peanuts are expected to maintain stable prices with limited room for significant upward or downward adjustments, focusing on supply dynamics from Henan province [10][11] - The apple market is characterized by low inventory levels, providing price support, but faces pressure from seasonal fruit supply [11] - The pig market shows a slight rebound, but supply remains ample, leading to limited price recovery potential [12] - Coking coal and coke futures experienced declines, with supply remaining marginally loose but limited by production safety issues [13] - Silver futures rose by 1.79%, influenced by U.S. PPI data indicating inflationary pressures [14] - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 1.45%, but demand is expected to weaken seasonally [14] - Polysilicon futures rose by 2.93%, with production expected to stabilize [15] - Methanol futures saw a rise of 1.82%, supported by overseas production cuts [16] - Glass futures increased by 1.87%, driven by production cuts amid profit compression [17] - Fuel oil futures fell by 1.2%, affected by fluctuating demand and geopolitical factors [18] - Asphalt futures declined by 1.02%, reflecting weak demand due to seasonal construction slowdowns [19] - The European shipping index saw a significant drop of 7.62%, with mixed trends in shipping rates impacting market sentiment [20]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 26, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, and their price trends vary [6]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Peanuts rose nearly 4%, polysilicon rose nearly 3%, glass and Shanghai silver rose nearly 2%, and lithium carbonate, urea, and live pigs rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell nearly 8%, and polypropylene (PP), coke, coking coal, plastic, and fuel oil fell more than 1%. The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.41%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.14%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) remained flat, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.09%. The main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.21%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.36%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.86%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 26, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.313 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.266 billion yuan, and lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 919 million yuan; in terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 2.86 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 2.76 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 1.355 billion yuan [6][7]. Copper - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. The US economic data had little impact on copper prices. The copper concentrate inventory has been accumulating for a week, and the Indonesian Grasberg mine is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, and the refining fees remain stable. Although the import of refined copper has decreased, the domestic supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also been accumulating. The implementation of Policy 770 is yet to be determined, and the production of recycled copper rods in some regions has decreased. After the decline in copper prices last week, downstream procurement increased. Overall, after the Sino - US leaders' dialogue, the international risk expectation has eased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will be strong before the interest rate cut meeting [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, rising during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 92,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 90,400 yuan/ton, both rising by 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year. The price of spodumene has risen, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by seasonality. The demand for energy storage is expected to be strong, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly. The inventory of lithium carbonate has been continuously decreasing. The market is affected by industry news and sentiment [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year. The end of the peak demand season, the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, and the high - level US crude oil production have put pressure on the market. Geopolitical factors such as the conflict between the US and Venezuela, the armed conflict in Libya, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine also affect the market. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly [12][14]. Asphalt - The operating rate of asphalt last week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of downstream industries varied. The shipment volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of demand due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in asphalt futures prices [15]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn wire, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly. On November 26, some overhauled devices restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 83%. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the increase in supply due to new capacity and reduced overhauls, combined with the end of the peak season for downstream demand, are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in PP prices [16][17]. Plastic - On November 26, the operating rate of plastic remained at about 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The new capacity of some enterprises has been put into production, and the operating rate has slightly decreased. The destocking of petrochemicals has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in plastic prices [18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. The operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have increased export orders, but the quotes of Formosa Plastics in December have decreased. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The new capacity has been put into production, and it is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate weakly [19][20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, falling during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal decreased by 2 yuan/ton. In October, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year. The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased slightly. The inventory of mines has increased significantly, while the inventory of coking enterprises has decreased. The steel mill's operating rate and hot metal production have increased, but the profit has weakened. The coking coal price has recovered the previous increase, and there may be opportunities for the market to be boosted by winter storage meetings and major domestic meetings [21]. Urea - The futures price of urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong trend during the day. The spot price is still weak, but the low - price transactions in the market are good. The daily production is much higher than the same period in previous years, and it is expected to remain above 190,000 tons before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired devices. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed down. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has recovered, and the inventory of urea has decreased for several weeks. The market demand has improved, but the upward space is limited due to sufficient supply [23].

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7169 | 7130 | 7183 | 7121 | -51 | -0.71% | 580839 | 24526 | | Plastic 2605 | 7231 | 7187 | 7239 | 7175 | -41 | -0.57% | 41372 | 1271 | | Plastic 2609 | 7266 | 7229 | 7267 | 7222 | -35 | -0.48% | 145 | 53 | | PP2601 | 6917 | 6873 | 6927 | 6862 | -44 | -0.64% | 645243 | 35335 | | PP2605 | 6967 | 6929 | 6973 | 6919 | -30 | -0.43% | 73930 | 239 | | PP2609 | 6944 | 6912 | 6954 | 6907 | -14 | -0.20% | 1665 | 76 | [5] Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7130 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (-0.71%), with a trading volume of 210,000 lots and an increase of 24,526 lots in open interest to 580,839 lots. PP2601 closed at 6873 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.64%, with an increase of 35,300 lots in open interest to 645,200 lots [6]. - The futures market opened lower and fluctuated downward, which was negative for market sentiment. Some ex-factory prices were lowered, and traders followed suit. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was low, with only small orders being placed [6]. - The upstream maintenance level of polypropylene slightly exceeded expectations, with more units shutting down. Both the upstream capacity utilization rate and output decreased. In addition, due to the recent strengthening of propane prices, the profit of PDH units continued to be compressed, and the operating load rate declined, alleviating the supply-side pressure. Some maintenance units will restart this week, and output may increase month-on-month [6]. - The maintenance volume of PE has declined from its high level, and the supply pressure has increased month-on-month. Except for the increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, most other sectors remained flat. The peak season performance was lower than expected, and the downstream operating rate and order situation were at a relatively low level year-on-year. Factories were cautious in raw material procurement, showing a weak peak season and having limited support for the raw material market. The destocking rhythm of intermediate social inventories was slow, and there was limited upward momentum [6]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the macroeconomic environment has been realized, but the chemical sector showed a flat performance. There is still some support from the increasing demand for packaging products approaching the Double Festival, but market confidence is insufficient, and there is no large-scale replenishment behavior. The demand-driven force is limited, and the market is weak and fluctuating at a low level [6]. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 680,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 7.94%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7]. - The price of the PE market weakened and declined. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply-demand support in the market weakened, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to enter the market for procurement was not high. Propylene production enterprises had average sales and mostly offered discounts to promote sales. The market trading situation has not improved significantly [7]. - The PP market declined slightly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6700 - 6820 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6860 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6680 - 6900 yuan/ton [8] Data Overview - Graphs include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, settlement price of crude oil futures main contract, two - barrel oil inventory, and year - on - year increase/decrease of two - barrel oil inventory [14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Equity Index [2] - Cautiously Bearish: Treasury Bonds, Coke, Coking Coal, Carbonate Lithium [2][7] - Bearish: Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass, Crude Oil [6][7] - Bullish: Rubber [8] - Sideways: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Methanol, Polyolefins, Cotton [5][8] 2. Core Views - The equity index is on an upward trend with continuous inflow of funds and clear long - term narratives, so a long - position strategy should be maintained [2]. - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and lack of new positive factors [2]. - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and short - position strategies are recommended [7]. - Rubber's fundamentals are improving, and long - position strategies should be continued [3][8]. - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decisions [5]. - Silver maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - Copper prices are supported in the medium - to long - term by tight mine supply, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy [5]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are in a sideways pattern, with limited downward space for alumina and clear medium - term support for aluminum [5]. - Nickel prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern, and selling call options is recommended [5]. - Carbonate lithium supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [6]. - Polysilicon prices may decline due to the need for market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - Rebar prices are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - Coke prices are mainly sideways, and coking coal prices are under pressure [7]. - Float glass prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - Crude oil prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - Methanol prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - Cotton demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Equity Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index hit a ten - year high, and the bullish sentiment is rising. With continuous capital inflow and clear long - term narratives, the upward trend is clear, and long positions should be held [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is weak, affected by the strong stock market. Without new positive factors, the bearish pattern continues [2]. Commodity Futures - **Soda Ash**: The industry has an oversupply situation. With the possible commissioning of new devices, supply pressure will increase, and previous short positions in SA601 should be held [3][7]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, with stable demand and slow raw - material production increase. Long positions in RU2601 should be held [3][8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Prices are in a high - level sideways pattern. The Fed's interest - rate decisions and the speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium are key factors [5]. - **Silver**: Maintains a long - position pattern, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions are the focus [5]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply is tight in the medium - to long - term, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's monetary policy and the US dollar trend [5]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina has an overcapacity situation but low valuation, and aluminum has clear medium - term support. Both are in a sideways pattern [5]. - **Nickel**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, and prices are in a narrow - range sideways pattern. Selling call options is recommended [5]. - **Lithium and Silicon** - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. Aggressive investors can hold previous short positions lightly [6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon supply is abundant, and polysilicon prices may decline due to market - oriented elimination of backward production capacity [6]. - **Steel and Iron** - **Rebar**: Fundamentals are under pressure, and selling out - of - the - money call options in RB2510C3300 is recommended [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices are expected to be sideways, and attention should be paid to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and molten iron transfer [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are under pressure in the short term, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of [750, 810] [6]. - **Coal and Coke** - **Coke**: Prices are mainly sideways, affected by environmental protection policies on both supply and demand sides [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices are under pressure due to weakening demand from steel and coke enterprises [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass** - **Soda Ash**: Maintains an oversupply situation, and previous short positions in the 01 contract should be held [7]. - **Float Glass**: Prices are under downward pressure, and short - position strategies for near - term contracts are recommended [7]. - **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are relatively resilient, and previous short positions can be gradually closed if there are no further negative factors [7]. - **Chemicals** - **Methanol**: Prices may continue to rebound if the arrival volume does not increase significantly [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The L - PP spread is expected to continue to widen [8]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: Demand is weak currently, and the market is waiting for the peak season [8]. - **Rubber**: The fundamentals are improving, and long positions should be held [3][8].