[Table_Title] 策略研究 证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 26 日 风至势起，进而有为 —2026 年总量与政策年度展望 报告要点： 以"三个再平衡"重塑宏观治理范式，构筑高质量发展新起点 2026 年是"十五五"规划开局之年，面对"供强需弱"的核心矛盾与外部环 境的长期博弈，宏观政策围绕"内外、跨逆、稳进"三个维度的再平衡展开系 统性重塑，这不仅是政策取向的调整，更是宏观治理范式从应急式调节向常态 化治理的转换。经济工作将构建起以扩大内需为主导、以改革创新为驱动、以 高质量发展为牵引的总体框架，力求在外部环境阶段性缓和的窗口期，通过供 需两端协同施策着力化解转型期核心矛盾，为中长期高质量发展奠定新框架。 2025 年经济运行回顾：供给向新向优的亮点突出，外需整体强于内需 2025 年在更加积极有为的宏观政策支持下，经济运行总体呈现稳中有进的态 势。当前经济运行的主要矛盾仍在于国内供给偏强、需求偏弱。一是工业生产 仍具备较强韧性，且结构呈现向新向优的特征，自 2024 年 2 月以来，高技术 产业规上工业增加值增速始终高于同期全部规上工业增加值增速。二是企业 生产端修复节奏领先于需求端。"反内 ...

摘要 2025年经济数据已出炉，全年GDP同比增长5%，达到年初政府工作报告所列出的目标。从具体行业来 看，2025年中国制造业同比增长6.1%，交通运输、仓储和邮政业增长5.2%，信息传输、软件和信息技 术服务业增长11.1%，租赁和商务服务业增长10.3%，这些行业2025年增速较快，均超过GDP增速，是 拉动经济增长的主要驱动力。 2025年12月，工业增加值累计同比增长5.9%，增速较11月下降0.1个百分点；生产服务指数累计同比增 长5.5%，增速同样较11月下降0.1个百分点。从主要工业产品产量增速来看，高增长主要集中在科技创 新产品上。12月，工业机器人产量同比增长14.7%，发电设备产量同比增长8.7%，新能源汽车产量同比 增长8.7%，集成电路产量同比增长12.9%，整个高技术产业同比增长11%。 截至2025年12月底，固定资产投资累计同比增速下降至-3.8%，其中制造业固定资产投资累计同比增速 下降至0.6%，民间固定资产投资累计同比增速下降至-6.4%，基础建设投资累计同比增速下降 至-1.48%。2025年，基础建设投资增速出现明显的下滑，一方面是受到过去几年的高基数影响，另一方 面 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，潍柴重机(000880)1月23日发布业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润为2.13亿元~2.57亿元， 同比增长45%~75%。2025年，公司围绕船舶和发电两大主业，优化业务结构、加大销售力度，同时推 动降本增效措施落地，业绩实现明显增长。此外，公司全资子公司常玻公司同比2024年实现减亏。 ...

人民财讯1月23日电，潍柴重机(000880)1月23日发布业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润为2.13亿元— 2.57亿元，同比增长45%—75%。2025年，公司围绕船舶和发电两大主业，优化业务结构、加大销售力 度，同时推动降本增效措施落地，业绩实现明显增长。此外，公司全资子公司常玻公司同比2024年实现 减亏。 转自：证券时报 ...

潍柴重机公告，预计2025年度净利润为2.13亿元～2.57亿元，同比增长45%～75%。公司抓住行业政策 支持所带来的增长机遇和新兴产业快速增长引发的需求拉动，围绕船舶和发电两大主业，优化业务结 构、加大销售力度，同时推动降本增效措施落地，业绩实现明显增长。此外，公司全资子公司常玻公司 同比2024年实现减亏。 ...

Core Insights - Indonesia is becoming a focal market for Chinese sellers due to its large population, rapid consumption growth, and favorable policies, making it a promising entry point for Southeast Asian market expansion [1] Group 1: Trade Environment - Indonesia's foreign trade volume is projected to reach $498.36 billion in 2024, supported by a population of 281 million, with a significant proportion of young consumers who are highly receptive to e-commerce and online payments [3] - The Indonesian government is actively encouraging non-oil and gas product exports by simplifying export procedures and reducing tariffs, alongside relaxing foreign investment regulations and providing tax incentives [3] - The local manufacturing sector is insufficient to meet the rapidly growing domestic demand, creating opportunities for Chinese exports in machinery, chemicals, automotive parts, and other categories, where Chinese products maintain a competitive edge due to cost-effectiveness [3] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The rapid growth of e-commerce in Indonesia is driving an increase in cross-border orders, highlighting the advantages of Chinese sellers in product selection and supply chain stability [3] - Indonesian consumers are increasingly accustomed to online shopping, focusing on product value, logistics speed, and after-sales service, which opens up growth opportunities in segments like home goods, beauty products, and small appliances [3] Group 3: Payment Challenges - Foreign trade enterprises face challenges in receiving payments due to significant fluctuations in the Indonesian Rupiah, lengthy payment cycles, and strict regulations on cross-border transactions [5] - The complexities of the Indonesian banking system, including rigorous large remittance audits and potential delays in interbank settlements, can impact cash flow for businesses [5] Group 4: Payment Solutions - Companies can utilize third-party platforms like WindPayer to open local Indonesian accounts for receiving payments in Rupiah, allowing for real-time exchange rate monitoring and withdrawal when favorable rates are available [6] - This method does not consume the annual $50,000 foreign exchange quota, providing a compliant and efficient way to manage funds [6]

Core Insights - Sichuan's industrial development has shown strong momentum, with significant achievements in various sectors over the past 40 years, particularly in manufacturing and digital economy [8][9][21] Industrial Growth and Achievements - From 1978 to 2017, Sichuan's total industrial output value expanded by 194 times, with an average annual growth rate of 12.1%, outpacing the national growth rate by 1.6 percentage points [9][10] - The province's industrial investment increased by 645.6 times during the same period, with a total industrial investment of 9,181 billion yuan in 2017 [12][13] - Sichuan has established a complete industrial system with 41 major industries, employing 3.19 million people in large-scale industrial enterprises [10][11] Strategic Initiatives - Sichuan is focusing on developing a "5+1" modern industrial system to enhance industrial quality and efficiency, with specific emphasis on digital economy and high-tech industries [6][15][25] - The province has launched initiatives to optimize regional industrial layouts, promoting collaborative development across five economic zones [15][18] Technological Advancements - Sichuan has made significant strides in technological innovation, with over 4,000 high-tech enterprises and more than 1,000 provincial-level technology centers established [22] - The digital economy in Sichuan surpassed 1 trillion yuan in scale, with advancements in smart manufacturing and internet integration in the industrial sector [17][21] Export and Investment - By the end of 2017, Sichuan had over 230 industrial enterprises investing abroad, with a focus on high-end equipment and emerging sectors [24] - The province has attracted 189 Fortune 500 companies, maintaining its position as the leading region in Western China for foreign investment [24]

Group 1: Misconceptions about Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment growth is not primarily driven by the "Juga Cycle" but rather by strong infrastructure and service sector investments, with construction industry growth at 65.5% and narrow infrastructure at 46.1% in 2024, contributing an additional 8.2 percentage points to overall equipment investment[2] - The perception that equipment investment is strongly influenced by the "Two New" policies is misleading, as significant increases in manufacturing investment and equipment purchases occurred as early as February 2024, before the policies were intensified[2] - Manufacturing equipment investment growth was only 6.5% in 2024, significantly lower than the overall equipment investment growth of 15.7%[3] Group 2: Drivers of Equipment Investment Growth - The establishment of a modern industrial system has strengthened digital infrastructure, with software industry growth at 53% and computer services at 35%, contributing to overall equipment investment[4] - Public utility equipment investment has surged since the "dual carbon" policy was intensified in 2021, with electricity and heat equipment investment growing at 17.6%[4] - Service sector equipment investment has outpaced construction investment since 2023, with growth rates of 13.9% compared to 2.8% for construction investment[5] Group 3: Sustainability of Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment is expected to continue high growth in 2026, supported by a rebound in narrow infrastructure, particularly in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments[6] - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to further drive investment in equipment for carbon reduction, including high-energy-consuming industries and renewable energy investments[7] - Policies focused on "investing in people" are anticipated to boost service sector equipment investment, with a recovery gap of 2-3 trillion yuan in consumer-related service investments[7] Group 4: External Demand and Investment Resilience - Equipment investment related to external demand is expected to remain resilient, particularly in sectors supporting industrialization in emerging economies, with strong export growth to ASEAN countries driven by improved internal demand[8] - The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into emerging economies is likely to accelerate, supporting industrialization and urbanization, which will further bolster equipment investment[8]

Group 1: Misconceptions about Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment growth is not primarily driven by the "Juga Cycle" but rather by strong infrastructure and service sector investments, with construction industry growth at 65.5% and narrow infrastructure at 46.1% in 2024, contributing an additional 8.2 percentage points to overall equipment investment[2] - The notion that equipment investment strength is influenced by the "Two New" policies is misleading; significant increases in manufacturing investment and equipment purchases occurred as early as February 2024, with equipment purchase investment growth reaching 17%[2] - Manufacturing equipment purchase investment growth was only 6.5% in 2024, significantly lower than the overall equipment investment growth of 15.7%[3] Group 2: Drivers of Equipment Investment Growth - The establishment of a modern industrial system has driven strong digital infrastructure investments, with software industry growth at 53% and computer services at 35%, contributing to overall equipment investment[4] - Public utility equipment investment has surged since the "dual carbon" policy was intensified in 2021, with electricity and heat equipment investment growth at 17.6%[4] - Service sector equipment investment has outpaced construction investment since 2023, with growth rates of 13.9% compared to 2.8% for construction investment in 2024[5] Group 3: Sustainability of Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment is expected to continue high growth in 2026, supported by a rebound in narrow infrastructure, particularly in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments[6] - The "dual carbon" policy is anticipated to further enhance investment in carbon reduction technologies, including high-energy-consuming industry upgrades and renewable energy investments[6] - Policies focused on "investing in people" are likely to increase service sector equipment investment, with a projected growth rate of around 6% in 2026, surpassing the overall fixed asset investment growth of 3%[7]

Core Insights - Caterpillar (CAT) has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past year, three years, and five years, with a notable 58.6% increase compared to the S&P's 15.7% over the last year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Caterpillar's earnings, measured by EBITDA, are highly cyclical, influenced by global economic conditions and infrastructure spending for construction machinery, as well as mining commodity prices for mining machinery [2] - The company's valuation, as indicated by the EV/EBITDA ratio, tends to peak when EBITDA is about to rise and trough when EBITDA is about to decline, reflecting typical cyclical stock behavior [4] - Currently, Caterpillar's valuation is near a historical high, suggesting market expectations for improved earnings in the coming years [6] Group 2: Business Segments - The growth in Caterpillar's power generation equipment business, which includes diesel and natural gas-powered equipment for data centers, is a key driver of optimism [7] - In the third quarter, the power generation business accounted for 15.7% of total equipment sales, growing by $623 million, or 31%, compared to the same quarter in 2024, while overall equipment sales increased by $872 million [8] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Investors are likely considering substantial growth from Caterpillar's exposure to AI and data center spending, alongside potential lower interest rates that could stimulate construction spending and ongoing infrastructure development [10]