[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 证券研究报告 有效需求不足凸显，政策加力空间打开 [Table _Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 1从 11 月经济数据来看，有效需求不足的情况依然显著。供给端大致平稳，工业增加值同比 4.8%，较前值小幅 放缓 0.1 个点，基本可以解释为基数变化带来的波动；需求端分化明显，出口增速反弹，偏弱依旧在内需：固 定资产投资同比大致持平前值-11%左右的低位；房地产销售面积降幅略有收窄，但销售额同比降幅扩大；社零 同比显著放缓至 1.3%。 2025 年 11 月工业增加值同比 4.8%，略低于前值的 4.9%。服务业生产指数同比 4.2%，低于前值的 4.6%。出 口同比 5.9%，高于前值的-1.1%。固定资产投资单月同比-11.1%，大致持平于前值的-11.2%。社零同比 1.3%， 低于前值的 2.9%。房地产销售面积同比-17.1%，高于前值的 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：郭磊宏观茶座 广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 摘要 第一，从11月经济数据来看，有效需求不足的情况依然显著。供给端大致平稳，工业增加值同比 4.8%，较前值小幅放缓0.1个点，基本可以解释为基数变化带来的波动；需求端分化明显，出口增速反 弹，偏弱依旧在内需：固定资产投资同比大致持平前值-11%左右的低位；房地产销售面积降幅略有收 窄，但销售额同比降幅扩大；社零同比显著放缓至1.3%。 第二，工业增加值季调环比为0.44%，高于10月，和前10个月的环比均值大致持平，显示工业生产真实 强度变化不大。高技术产业增加值同比达8.4%，形成引领，产量保持高速增长的包括集成电路、工业 机器人；增速偏高但有所放缓的是发电设备、新能源汽车；相对中高增长的是有色金属。部分化工产品 （乙烯、化纤）产量增速亦并不算低。智能手机、太阳能电池产量同比负增长；粗钢、水泥等建筑业产 品同比负增长。 第三，社零季调环比-0.42%，低于6月的-0.33%，属于年内最低点。从限额以上主要门类来看，绝对增 速最高的是通讯器材，同比达20.6%；同比增速较前值变化较大的 ...

中东电力、照明及新能源领域不容错过的重要盛会。Middle East Electricity 2026 是中东地区规模首屈一指、极具影响力的电力、照明及新能源展览会，与相 关行业紧密相连，此次展会由[具体负责中国组展的公司名称]负责中国组展。 2026年中东迪拜国际电力、照明及新能源展览会 (Middle East Electricity) 举办时间：2026年4月7日—9日 举办地点：阿联酋迪拜世界贸易中心 (Dubai World Trade Centre) 组展单位：北京盛华国际展览有限公司 参展咨询：李行舒 全面覆盖电力、照明及新能源各细分领域。电力方面，包含发电设备、输配电设备、电力自动化系统等；照明领域，涵盖各类室内外照明灯具、智能照明控 制系统等；新能源板块，涉及太阳能、风能、水能等可再生能源设备与技术，以及储能系统、新能源汽车充电设施等。这无疑是您开拓中东电力、照明及新 能源市场的绝佳核心平台。 市场需求 中东地区近年来经济发展势头迅猛，城市化进程不断加快，对电力供应的稳定性和可靠性提出了更高要求。同时，为应对全球气候变化，实现可持续发展目 标，中东各国纷纷加大对新能源领域的投资与开发力度。未 ...

（编辑 丛可心 王雪儿） 证券日报网12月10日讯 杰瑞股份在12月9日回答调研者提问时表示，公司的发电设备能够满足数据中 心、石油天然气开发、工业发电等领域对于发电设备可靠性、响应速度、运行灵活性以及稳定性等方面 的高标准要求。公司高度重视发电领域的业务发展，成立杰瑞敏电能源集团，整合公司电力板块资源， 加速业务突破。在业务经验方面，公司深耕海外市场多年，已有燃气轮机发电机组设备在北美市场实现 销售及租赁的成功案例，得到海外客户的反复验证与认可，为公司切入数据中心发电领域建立了良好的 品牌口碑。同时，公司依托在燃气发电、智能控制与复杂系统集成领域多年的技术积累与工程实践，打 造综合能源解决方案，所提供的发电设备具备快速运输、现场拼装与灵活扩容的特点，能够有效应对项 目周期紧、空间受限等现实挑战，为电力业务开展提供坚实的技术保障。公司注重构建全球化供应链体 系，与西门子、贝克休斯等燃气轮机厂商建立了稳定的合作关系，不断提升公司供应链韧性，为相关产 品交付提供坚实保障。 ...

编号：20251204 | | 特定对象调研 □媒体采访 | □分析师会议 □业绩说明会 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 类别 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | | 现场参观 | | | | | □其他 | | | | | | 场次一 | | | | 序号 | 代表机构 | 姓 名 | | | 1 | 博时基金 | 金晟哲 | | | 2 | 博时基金 | 陈 曦 | | | 3 | 博时基金 | 李 喆 | | | 4 | 博时基金 | 郭永升 | | | 5 | 博时基金 | 蔡宗延 | | | 6 | 博时基金 | 包江麟 | | | | 场次二 | | | | 序号 | 代表机构 | 姓 名 | | | 1 | 中银基金 | 时文博 | | 活动参与人员 | 2 | 农银人寿 | 王 鹏 | | | 3 | 民生加银 | 郑爱刚 | | | 4 | 彤源投资 | 潘贻立 | | | 5 | 宏利基金 | 丁 申 | | | 6 | 浦泓投资 | 彭 聪 | | | 7 | 瀛赐基金 | 龚文路 | | | 8 | 东北证券 | 韩金呈 | ...

Group 1: Central Bank and Regulatory Actions - The People's Bank of China continues to enforce a prohibitive policy on virtual currencies and aims to combat illegal financial activities related to them, emphasizing risk prevention as a core theme of financial work [1] - The central bank, along with the Ministry of Science and Technology, held a meeting to promote the integration of technology and finance, focusing on optimizing policy measures and enhancing the allocation of financial resources [2] Group 2: AI Industry Development - The "Beijing Artificial Intelligence Industry White Paper (2025)" indicates that the core industry scale of AI in Beijing is expected to reach 215.22 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with an anticipated total exceeding 450 billion yuan for the year [2] Group 3: Battery Industry Insights - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged from approximately 49,300 yuan per ton in July to 167,500 yuan per ton by November 28, indicating strong market demand [5] - The meeting on battery recycling standards highlighted the importance of establishing standardized technical organizations to enhance the recycling and utilization of power batteries, contributing to the high-quality development of the new energy industry [3] Group 4: Company News - Dofluor: The company has developed a new type of fluorine-containing polymer electrolyte suitable for solid-state batteries and is currently operating its lithium hexafluorophosphate production line at full capacity, with expectations for continued demand growth next year [4] - Jerry Holdings reported ongoing orderly operations across various sectors, including securing a contract exceeding 100 million USD for generator sales in the North American data center power supply sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar's stock has surged 52% in 2025, outperforming Nvidia's 40% gains, driven by its strong performance in the energy and transportation sectors, particularly in power generation, amidst a backdrop of rising AI infrastructure investments [1][2][11]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Caterpillar is the top-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a current price of $550.43 and a market cap of $258 billion [4][2]. - The stock's performance is notable given the broader market trends, especially in the context of the AI revolution [1][2]. Group 2: Revenue and Financials - For the first nine months of 2025, Caterpillar generated $48.5 billion in revenue, which is flat year-over-year, with an operating profit of $8.5 billion, down 16% from 2024 [5][6]. - The energy and transportation segment reported a total revenue of $19.0 billion, an 8% increase from $17.6 billion in the same period of 2024, with power generation being the fastest-growing area at 28% growth [9][10]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - The rally in Caterpillar's stock is attributed to expectations of improved profit margins due to potential stabilization in cost structures from ongoing trade negotiations [6]. - The company's backlog reached an all-time high of $39.8 billion, driven by continued orders in the energy and transportation business, particularly from data center construction [10][11]. Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - Caterpillar is increasingly viewed as a complementary investment in the AI infrastructure movement, benefiting from rising capital expenditures in this sector [11][15]. - The company's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has reached 29, the highest level in three years, indicating strong investor sentiment and momentum [14][15]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - With trillions expected to be invested in AI infrastructure, Caterpillar is well-positioned to benefit from increased demand for construction machinery and energy resources [16].

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October indicates a general slowdown in total economic activity, with key indicators such as industrial output, services, investment, retail sales, exports, and real estate sales all showing varying degrees of decline compared to previous values [1][5][19]. Economic Data Overview - The monthly GDP index simulated from industrial output, retail sales, and service production indices shows a year-on-year growth of 4.53%. This index has gradually recovered since the low in September 2022, reaching a high in March 2023, but has faced pressure in the second quarter and again in October [1][6]. - To achieve the annual growth target of 5%, the combined growth for November and December needs to be no less than 4.5% [1][6]. Industrial Sector Analysis - October's industrial output growth was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The month-on-month seasonally adjusted industrial value added was 0.17%, significantly lower than the previous 0.65% [6][8]. - The decline in industrial output is attributed to three main factors: fluctuations in export delivery values, a slowdown in major industrial product outputs, and the impact of policy financial tools on the construction sector [2][8]. - Key industrial product outputs showed negative growth, including crude steel (-12.1%), cement (-15.8%), and solar cells (-8.7%), while integrated circuit production increased by 17.7% [8][12]. Retail Sales Insights - Retail sales in October did not show an overall decline, with many categories improving. The apparent slowdown was mainly due to high base effects in durable goods like automobiles. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.0%, surpassing the previous 3.2% [9][10]. - Growth was observed in sectors such as dining, alcohol, food, clothing, cosmetics, and daily necessities, while declines were noted in real estate-related furniture and high-base automotive and home appliance sales [9][10]. Fixed Asset Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, with cumulative year-on-year growth dropping from -0.5% to -1.7%, and a monthly decline of 11.2% [3][11]. - The share of real estate development in fixed asset investment fell to 18.0%, the lowest since 2018. Excluding real estate, fixed asset investment growth was only 1.7%, indicating persistent low levels [3][11]. Real Estate Market Conditions - Real estate data in October continued to show significant pressure, with declines in sales, new construction, investment completion, and funding availability [15][16]. - The price indices for new and second-hand residential properties in 70 major cities showed a slight increase in the rate of decline compared to previous values, indicating a need for price stabilization to support sales and investment [15][17]. Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic data for October suggests a marginal increase in total pressure, with structural highlights in general consumption and service consumption showing initial signs of recovery [4][19]. - The shortfalls remain in fixed asset investment and real estate volume and price, with recent policy measures yet to translate into hard data [4][19].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Atlas generated $259.6 million in revenue and $40.2 million in adjusted EBITDA, resulting in a 15% EBITDA margin [16][4] - Adjusted free cash flow was $22 million, representing 8% of revenue [18] - The net loss for the quarter was $23.7 million, with a net loss per share of $0.19 [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Proppant sales totaled $106.8 million, with volumes at 5.25 million tons, slightly lower than the previous quarter [17] - Logistics contributed $135.7 million to revenue, with a modest decline in tonnage [17] - Power rentals added $17.1 million to revenue, indicating growth in this segment [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Permian frack crew count decreased from over 90 in 2024 to around 80 entering Q3 2025, reflecting a slowdown in completions activity [7] - WTI prices were around $60, providing little incentive for operators to increase activity [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize efficiencies with a target of $20 million in annual cost savings [19] - Atlas is focusing on gaining market share during the downturn by leveraging its low-cost production and extensive logistics network [8] - The acquisition of Moser Energy Systems is seen as a strategic move to layer a stable power generation platform atop its oilfield services foundation [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding a broad recovery in early 2026 due to ongoing capital spending slowdowns by customers [7] - The company anticipates a decline in fourth-quarter volumes to approximately 4.8 million tons, attributed to seasonality and customer budget constraints [16] - Management remains optimistic about the power business, expecting significant growth and stable cash flows from long-term contracts [11][12] Other Important Information - The company has temporarily suspended its dividend to prioritize capital for growth opportunities in the power market [13][14] - The logistics business is facing margin pressure due to a slowdown in completions activity, with trucking rates dropping below COVID-era levels [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the updated power strategy and how Mosier fits into it? - Management indicated that the power strategy has advanced, focusing on establishing a platform with deep expertise and leveraging the Mosier acquisition for engineering and project execution [26] Question: Do you have contracts to justify the new capacity order? - Management confirmed that they would not have ordered the equipment without having line of sight on contracts, with ongoing negotiations for financing [30][31] Question: What caused the higher operating costs this quarter? - The increase in costs was primarily due to inefficiencies related to tailings management at the Kermit facility, which have since been addressed [40][41] Question: What is the outlook for capital spending in 2026? - Capital spending is expected to decrease from 2025 levels, focusing on maintenance rather than growth investments due to current market conditions [44] Question: How will the 240 megawatts of new capacity be deployed? - The new capacity is expected to be split across multiple projects, likely not in the oil and gas sector, but rather in C&I or data centers [78] Question: What is the potential market opportunity for the 2 gigawatts mentioned? - The opportunity set includes a mix of oil and gas applications, C&I opportunities, and data centers, with a significant portion expected to be long-term contracts [62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][31]. Core Views - The company's profitability has shown recovery in Q3 2025, with a net profit of 2.97 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13% [10]. - The demand for power construction during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be robust, driven by government initiatives to enhance energy equipment quality [4][31]. - The company has a strong order backlog, ensuring future performance, with new orders signed in the first three quarters of 2025 amounting to 88.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9% [3][23]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 55.52 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.4%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][10]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.2%, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.4 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.6 percentage points [2][16]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 4.58 billion, 4.79 billion, and 5.10 billion yuan respectively, with a significant increase of 56.6% in 2025 [31][35]. Order and Production - The company signed new orders worth 231 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 8% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter [3][23]. - The total production of power generation equipment in the first three quarters reached 61.5 GW, with a target of 73 GW for 2025, indicating a 26% year-on-year growth [3][23]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the government's commitment to advancing clean energy projects, including coal, gas, and renewable energy, which is expected to benefit the company due to its leading technology in various power sources [4][31].