文 | 中国金融网(CFN) 大河 2026年1月26日，国际贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻：伦敦黄金现货最高触及5111.17美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货峰值达5107.9美元/盎司，双双突破5100美元/ 盎司关键关口。然而，暴涨背后是极致震荡——现货黄金日内冲高2.5%后大幅回落，尾盘跌破5000美元/盎司，收涨仅0.26%；现货白银波动更为剧烈，日内 涨幅一度高达14%至117美元/盎司，最终转跌报102.8美元/盎司。这场"狂欢式震荡"不仅凸显贵金属市场的狂热情绪，更释放出多重风险升级信号，为投资者 敲响警钟。 关口告破：贵金属市场的极端行情演绎 金银价格走势分化显著，白银弹性远超黄金。今年以来银价涨幅已超50%，大幅跑赢金价17%的年内涨幅，核心源于供需矛盾与资金推动的双重叠加，但其 波动幅度也数倍于黄金，日内从暴涨14%到尾盘转跌，凸显高位投机资金的快进快出。 波动率拉满：多重因素交织下的市场博弈 贵金属高位波动率飙升，本质是短期避险情绪、中期供需格局与长期货币逻辑交织博弈的结果，而资金面的极致涌入进一步放大了波动弹性。 短期核心驱动源于避险买盘的脉冲式涌入。当前全球地缘政治与金融风险交织，美国对伊 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have surged to historic highs, with spot gold breaking the $5000 per ounce mark, driven by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, strong central bank demand for gold, and geopolitical premiums [1][11]. Market Performance - As of the report, spot gold rose by 2.05% to $5090.288 per ounce, reaching a peak of $5111.17, while spot silver surged by 6.06% to $109.6 per ounce, surpassing the $110 mark [3][5]. - In the futures market, COMEX gold futures increased by 2.02% to $5080.4 per ounce, with a peak of $5107.9, and COMEX silver futures rose by 7.54% to $108.97 per ounce, hitting a high of $110.065 [6][7]. Influencing Factors - The current gold price rally, which began in early 2025 at around $3000 per ounce, reflects significant changes in the macroeconomic environment [9]. - Short-term factors include ongoing geopolitical risks, such as tensions over Greenland's sovereignty and escalating US-Iran relations, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [9]. - Mid-term factors involve the interplay between the Federal Reserve's policy path and its independence, with expectations of weakened monetary policy independence supporting gold prices [9][10]. - Long-term drivers include the structural weakening of the dollar credit system, with global central banks increasing gold reserves and a steady de-dollarization process [10]. Future Outlook - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, influenced by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, strong central bank demand, and geopolitical premiums [11]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could potentially reach $6000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of continued monetary easing [11]. - Investment strategies suggested include a diversified approach based on individual financial capacity and risk tolerance, with recommendations for different investment vehicles such as gold futures, ETFs, and physical gold [11].

Industry News - TSMC plans to implement a price increase of approximately 3%-5% for advanced processes below 5nm starting January 2026, indicating a four-year pricing strategy [7] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation clarified tax collection matters related to gold, leading to adjustments in pricing for physical gold bars by China Merchants Bank [5] - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced the conclusion of negotiations for the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory, focusing on price agreements for innovative drugs [7] - The Chinese government has decided to extend visa-free policies for 45 countries, including France and Germany, until December 31, 2026, to facilitate international travel [2] Company News - China Shenhua announced a cash dividend distribution totaling 19.471 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [8] - Huayuan Technology is involved in a strategic cooperation agreement with Tailan New Energy to collaborate on solid-state batteries and key materials [9] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has resumed accepting applications for gold accumulation business after a temporary suspension [7] - Artis expects to have a storage system capacity of 15 GWh and cell capacity of 3 GWh by the end of 2025 [10]

Group 1 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) announced the suspension of its "Ruyi Gold" accumulation business effective from November 3, 2025, due to macroeconomic policy impacts and risk management requirements [1] - China Construction Bank (CCB) also announced a suspension of its "Easy Storage Gold" business, including real-time purchases and physical gold exchanges, effective from November 3, 2025, while existing customers' plans remain unaffected [1] - The recent changes in gold tax policies by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation have prompted system upgrades in banks to comply with the new regulations [1] Group 2 - From November 1, 2023, to December 31, 2027, standard gold traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will be exempt from value-added tax (VAT) unless physical gold is withdrawn or sold outside the exchange [2] - The new tax policy increases the cost of investing in physical gold, while electronic gold investments within the exchange gain a tax advantage [2] - China Merchants Bank has adjusted the pricing of its physical gold bars in response to the new gold tax policy, indicating that the tax has been incorporated into the product pricing [2]

Macro Dynamics - The "upgraded" China-Europe export control dialogue was held in Brussels, focusing on mutual concerns in export control and agreeing to maintain communication to stabilize supply chains [2] - The National Data Bureau announced support for private enterprises to lead standard formulation in the data sector, with over 120 national standards published during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] Financial Institutions - China Construction Bank announced the suspension of certain gold-related services due to market volatility, effective from November 3, 2025 [8] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for China's export growth and actual GDP growth, predicting annual export growth of 5-6% and adjusting the 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.0% [9] Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.55% on November 3, with significant activity in sectors such as photovoltaic and thorium-based molten salt stocks [11] - The total margin balance in the two markets decreased by 12.28 billion yuan as of October 31 [12] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 0.97%, with notable movements in technology and automotive stocks [13] Company Dynamics - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella highlighted that the AI industry faces challenges not from excess computing power but from insufficient electricity to support GPU operations [14] - Arctech responded to recent price speculation in the polysilicon sector, stating that there is currently an oversupply and no plans for self-built or acquired polysilicon production lines [15] - Baihehua's actual controller, Chen Lirong, mistakenly reduced his holdings by 160,000 shares but has since repurchased the same amount to correct the error [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China announced a new tax policy regarding gold transactions, which includes exemptions from value-added tax (VAT) for certain transactions involving standard gold [1] Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - Members or clients trading standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange can enjoy VAT exemptions when selling standard gold [1] - The policy distinguishes between transactions that involve physical delivery and those that do not, with VAT exemptions applicable to transactions without physical delivery [1] - For transactions involving physical delivery, different tax policies apply based on the intended use of the purchased standard gold [1] Group 2: Implementation and Impact - Following the new policy, as of November 3, 2023, the price of physical gold bars displayed on the mobile banking app of China Merchants Bank includes tax, and the VAT is automatically processed by the system [1] - Customers do not need to bear additional tax costs during the trading process, but for physical gold buyback transactions, the tax will be calculated based on the real-time gold price at the time of pickup, in accordance with exchange regulations [1]

Group 1: Gold Tax Policy and Market Impact - The new gold tax policy announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration has led to adjustments in gold pricing, with China Merchants Bank including tax in the price of physical gold bars [1] - The announcement of the tax policy has negatively impacted retail gold stocks, with companies like Luk Fook Holdings experiencing a drop of nearly 9% in stock price [4] - The policy aims to enhance the distinction between gold as a commodity and its financial attributes, indicating a supportive stance towards the gold industry compared to international markets [4] Group 2: Aluminum and Glass Market Trends - Aluminum prices have surged, reaching their highest closing price since May 2022, with a monthly increase of over 7% in October [1] - The domestic photovoltaic glass market is facing an increase in production capacity, with new furnaces being activated, leading to a slight increase in supply despite some production constraints [2] Group 3: Company Developments and IPOs - Shukong Technology, a unicorn in AI medical imaging, is preparing for an IPO, with a valuation reaching 9.4 billion yuan after its last funding round [2] - Juhua Materials is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with details still under discussion [6] - Several companies, including Keren Co. and Pingzhi Information, have signed significant procurement contracts, indicating active business operations in their respective sectors [10][11] Group 4: Retail and Store Closures - Zhou Dashing has reported a net closure of 560 stores over the past year, primarily in franchise locations, despite rising gold prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising gold prices and the renewed interest among investors in gold as an asset class, highlighting the significant gains experienced by early investors amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and market volatility [1][12]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of October 8, 2023, international gold prices have increased by over 50% this year, making it one of the best-performing asset classes globally [2][12]. - Gold prices have consistently broken through key levels, reaching historical highs of $4000 per ounce [1][12]. Group 2: Investor Experiences - An investor named Xue Di, who began investing in gold in 2020, has seen substantial returns, with a total investment exceeding 2 million yuan and profits nearing 1.5 million yuan [2][7]. - Another investor, Liu Yun, entered the gold market after discovering gold ETF products, investing heavily as prices rose, and later shifting her strategy from trading to holding physical gold [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The World Gold Council attributes the rise in gold prices to geopolitical and economic risks, strong demand for gold ETFs, and consistent central bank purchases [12]. - In China, retail gold investment and consumption reached 518 tons in the first half of 2023, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with significant inflows into gold ETFs [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong demand from central banks and private sectors [13]. - Some analysts warn of potential price corrections due to rapid price increases, with predictions of possible declines to $3525 or $3800 per ounce in the near term [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising gold prices and the renewed interest among investors in gold as an asset class, questioning its future allocation potential amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and market volatility [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since 2025, international gold prices have surged, breaking through key levels of $3000, $3500, and $4000 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 50% as of October 8 [2][13]. - The World Gold Council attributes the price increase to geopolitical and economic risks, strong demand for gold ETFs, and consistent central bank purchases [13][14]. Group 2: Investor Experiences - Investor "Xue Di" has seen significant returns from early investments in gold, with a total investment exceeding 2 million yuan and profits around 1.5 million yuan, emphasizing the importance of timing in gold investments [2][8]. - Another investor, "Liu Yun," transitioned from trading gold ETFs to purchasing physical gold bars, reflecting a shift from a trading mindset to a long-term value preservation strategy [10][12]. Group 3: Market Demand and Central Bank Activity - In the first half of the year, China's retail gold investment and consumption reached 518 tons, a 5% increase year-on-year, with significant inflows into gold ETFs [13]. - As of August 2023, China's official gold reserves reached 2298.43 tons, marking ten consecutive months of increases, indicating a robust central bank strategy to diversify reserves [13]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong demand from central banks and private sectors [14]. - However, some institutions, including Bank of America and UBS, caution that gold may face a correction in the near term, with potential price levels dropping to $3525 or $3800 per ounce [15].