Macro Overview - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding China's holiday economy, with moderate growth in consumption during the National Day holiday. Key trends include strong performance in green, smart, and experiential consumption [2][4] - Despite recent relaxations in real estate policies in first-tier cities, the real estate market remains weak, with a significant year-on-year decline in new and second-hand housing sales [3][6] - The report anticipates that core CPI and PPI growth will rebound, alleviating deflationary pressures, with liquidity conditions expected to remain loose for at least the next two quarters [2][7][8] Internet Sector - The online travel agency (OTA) sector shows resilience, with keywords "quality" and "long-distance travel" indicating strong demand. Long-distance travel bookings on Ctrip increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year [28][30] - During the holiday, Alibaba's Fliggy reported a 14.6% year-on-year increase in average transaction value, while Tongcheng Travel noted nearly 100% growth in outbound group travel bookings [28][31] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Ctrip (TCOM US) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) based on these positive trends [28] Consumer Discretionary - The report expresses a cautious outlook for retail sales growth during the 2025 National Day holiday, attributing potential risks to high base effects from 2024, lack of government subsidies, and ongoing macroeconomic pressures [32][35] - The report highlights a preference for consumer downgrade themes and high-dividend stocks, with concerns over profit margin pressures due to increased competition and discounting [32][35] Automotive Sector - The report notes a significant divergence in sales during the National Day holiday, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) outperforming traditional fuel vehicles. The introduction of popular NEV models is expected to drive order growth [6][32] - The forecast for national passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales in 2025 has been slightly raised, reflecting better-than-expected sales in Q3 and potential pre-purchase demand for NEVs [6][32] Real Estate Sector - The report indicates that the effectiveness of real estate policies is diminishing, with a notable decline in sales volume for new and second-hand homes during the holiday period [3][6] - The report anticipates that further easing measures may be necessary to stimulate housing demand, as sales data remains weak despite policy support [3][6] Selected Stocks - The report identifies several preferred stocks, including Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US), Guoquan (2517 HK), Green Tea Group (6831 HK), Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), Bosideng (3998 HK), and JS Global Life (1691 HK) [33][41]

上汽集团（600104.SH）系列点评十四 销量同环比亮眼 尚界 H5 上市即热销 2025 年 10 月 09 日 ➢ 事件概述：公司发布 9 月产销快报，2025 年 9 月上汽集团批发销售 44.0 万 辆，2025M1-9 销量 319.3 万辆，同比+20.5%。 分品牌看：9 月上汽大众销量 9.4 万辆，2025 M1-9 销量 77.2 万辆，同比-2.5%； 9 月上汽通用销量 4.9 万辆，2025 M1-9 销量 27.8 万辆，同比+36.7%； 9 月上汽乘用车销量 9.4 万辆，2025 M1-9 销量 48.1 万辆，同比+23.8%； 9 月上汽通用五菱销量 15.8 万辆，2025 M1-9 销量 84.0 万辆，同比+37.8%； 9 月上汽新能源销量 18.9 万辆，2025 M1-9 销量 108.3 万辆，同比+44.8%； 9 月上汽海外销量 10.1 万辆，2025 M1-9 销量 76.5 万辆，同比+3.5%。 ➢ 2025M1-9 销量表现亮眼 自主+出口驱动增长 经营质量提升。受益于自 主品牌创新和出口韧性，2025 年 9 月上汽集团批发销量同比+40. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The sales and market share of Hongmeng Intelligent Driving models are expected to continue to rise, benefiting companies in the supply chain [2][3] - The report highlights the strong performance of Hongmeng Intelligent Driving models during the National Day holiday, with a total of 41,300 units booked from October 1-7, representing a 44% year-on-year increase [8] - The report anticipates that the introduction of national standards for intelligent assisted driving will further enhance the market share of vehicles equipped with Huawei's intelligent driving systems [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on Hongmeng Intelligent Driving vehicles and related companies, with specific buy recommendations for SAIC Motor (600104), Yanchai Automobile (600418), and several component manufacturers including Yinlun Co. (002126), Xinquan Co. (603179), and others [3] - The report notes that multiple new models are set to launch, which is expected to drive sales and market share upward [3] Market Performance - The report indicates that the high-end and luxury segments of Hongmeng Intelligent Driving models are leading in market share, with significant bookings for models like the Zun Jie S800 and Wanjie M9 [8] - The report projects that by 2026, the product matrix of Hongmeng Intelligent Driving will be further enhanced, allowing for a more comprehensive market presence in the mid-to-high-end new energy vehicle sector [8] Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the upcoming mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles, which are expected to be implemented on January 1, 2027, and how this will impact the market dynamics for L2 level assisted driving systems [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new market structure in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) sector, highlighting the shift from the previously dominant "Wei Xiaoli" (Weilai, Xiaopeng, Li Auto) to a new group termed "BIG 6+1," which includes Tesla, Li Auto, Hongmeng Zhixing, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, NIO, and Zero Run. This shift indicates a significant change in market dynamics as these companies collectively approach or surpass the sales of leading brand BYD, marking the beginning of a new competitive phase in the EV market [4][18]. Market Dynamics - By August 2025, the total insurance registrations of the seven new force car companies approached or briefly exceeded that of BYD, indicating a potential shift in market leadership [4][6]. - The "BIG 6+1" collectively accounted for a market share of approximately 15.25% in August 2025, with BYD holding a share of 13.97% [17]. Definition of New Forces - The term "new forces" in the automotive industry lacks a precise definition, but a simple distinction can be made based on whether a company has the qualification to produce fuel vehicles. Companies without this qualification can only produce pure electric or extended-range products [5][6]. Sales Rankings - In the August 2025 sales rankings, the top seven new force companies were Tesla (57,152 units, 2.81%), Zero Run (51,162 units, 2.52%), Hongmeng Zhixing (40,012 units, 1.97%), Xiaomi (36,396 units, 1.79%), Xiaopeng (34,691 units, 1.71%), NIO (16,434 units, 0.81%), and Li Auto (28,529 units, 1.40%) [6][7]. Product Offerings - The "BIG 6+1" companies have a limited number of main models, with most brands offering around seven models. Tesla, while having many variants, primarily sells three main models [9][8]. - The average selling prices of the brands vary, with Tesla at 29.67 million yuan, Li Auto at 34.90 million yuan, and Zero Run at 12.98 million yuan, indicating a diverse pricing strategy among the new forces [13][15]. Distribution Channels - The distribution network of "BIG 6+1" varies, with Zero Run and Hongmeng Zhixing having the most stores (around 942 and approximately 1,000 respectively), while Tesla and Xiaomi have around 300-400 stores [11][12]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that as the "BIG 6+1" solidifies its market position, it will significantly impact the overall EV market, potentially leading to a new phase of competition and market consolidation [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry [7]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing stable and rapid growth in passenger vehicles, with retail sales from September 1-21 reaching 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month [1]. - The new energy vehicle market is also growing, with retail sales of 697,000 units during the same period, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase and a 24% increase in cumulative retail sales for the year [2]. - The integration of artificial intelligence and autonomous driving technologies is becoming a significant trend in the transportation sector, driven by government policies and initiatives [3]. - Mergers and collaborations are ongoing, with notable acquisitions such as China FAW Group's purchase of a stake in Shenzhen Zhuoyu Technology, which specializes in advanced driver-assistance systems [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector's index remained stable with a 0.00% change, while the broader market index (CSI 300) increased by 1.07% during the week [13]. - The automotive parts sector saw a weekly increase of 5.03% and a year-to-date increase of 66.51% [16]. Sales Data Tracking - Cumulative retail sales of passenger vehicles for the year reached 15.955 million units, a 9% increase year-on-year, while wholesale sales totaled 19.349 million units, a 12% increase [21]. - The penetration rate for new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 58.5% [2]. Industry News - The report highlights significant developments such as the launch of new models by various manufacturers, including the Wanjie M7 and Huawei's collaboration with SAIC for the Shangjie H5 [36][38]. - The Ministry of Transport is advancing the "Artificial Intelligence + Transportation" initiative, aiming to scale up AI applications in the sector [39]. - Chery Automobile's successful IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised HKD 9.14 billion, marking it as the largest IPO in the automotive sector this year [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2025, supporting upward consumption trends. The industry is also experiencing a structural shift towards high-end and intelligent upgrades, which presents investment opportunities [18] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Chery Automobile has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HKD 9.14 billion with a record oversubscription of 238 times. The company's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 92.618 billion in 2022 to CNY 269.899 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7% [5][13] - The Ideal i6 was launched at a price of CNY 249,800, featuring advanced technology and performance specifications [14] - The Shangjie H5 was launched with a starting price of CNY 159,800, offering both electric and range-extended versions [15] - The all-new Wanjie M7 was launched with a price range of CNY 279,800 to CNY 379,800, providing multiple powertrain options [17] Market Performance - From September 22 to September 26, the automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index remaining flat while the overall index rose by 0.2% [19] - The automotive sector's weekly trading volume decreased, indicating a potential decline in investor interest [19] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies poised to benefit from the industry's transition to high-end and intelligent vehicles, including Ideal Auto, Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [18] - The report also identifies opportunities in high-level intelligent driving technologies, recommending companies like XPeng Motors and Huayang Group [18] - In the commercial vehicle sector, it anticipates a recovery in heavy truck demand in 2025, recommending leading companies such as Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [18] Key Company and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several key companies, indicating a bullish outlook for firms like Yiyuan Co., Baolong Technology, and Xinyu Co. [8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on companies with strong product launches and competitive advantages in the market [4][29]. Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing a recovery with significant sales growth in new energy vehicles, which accounted for 58.46% of total retail sales in the week of September 15-21, 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 30.15% [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, as key drivers for market sentiment and investment opportunities [4][29]. - Companies like Li Auto, NIO, and BYD are recommended for their strong product offerings and market positioning [4][29]. Market Situation Update - The total transaction value in the automotive industry for the week was 851.59 billion, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7.71% [4][17]. - The automotive industry index remained stable at 8106.63 points, with no change over the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.07% [4][17]. - The report notes that 122 stocks in the automotive sector rose, while 168 fell, indicating a mixed performance among individual companies [4][21]. Key Events - Li Auto launched the new five-seat electric SUV, the Li i6, with a starting price of 249,800 yuan, which is expected to attract younger consumers [7][49]. - The AITO M7 began nationwide deliveries, showcasing strong market demand with over 230,000 pre-orders [11][39]. - The launch of the Shangjie H5, priced between 159,800 and 199,800 yuan, aims to capture the mainstream SUV market with advanced features [14][38]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is addressing the issue of "0 km used cars" to curb fraudulent sales practices, reflecting a commitment to improving industry integrity [5][6]. - The report mentions the establishment of a joint venture between Li Auto and Xinwangda for battery production, indicating strategic moves towards vertical integration in the supply chain [31][32]. - The report also highlights the introduction of export license management for pure electric passenger vehicles starting in 2026, which may impact market dynamics [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the automotive industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in high-quality component manufacturers and strong vehicle manufacturers [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that technological advancements are igniting market sentiment, and there is a strong interest in high-quality component manufacturers as well as new vehicle models that are expected to capture orders during the upcoming holiday season [4]. - The report notes that the automotive industry is facing challenges due to insufficient national subsidies, which may pressure future sales [4]. - The report provides an update on the automotive market, indicating that retail sales of passenger cars reached 508,000 units in the 38th week of 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 12.89% and a year-on-year increase of 10.29% [2]. Market Situation Update - The total transaction value of the automotive industry for the week was 851.59 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7.71% [4]. - The automotive industry index closed at 8106.63 points, with no change over the week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.07% [4][19]. - The report highlights that 122 stocks in the automotive sector rose while 168 fell, with the largest gainers being Xincidian, Kebo Da, and Tiangong Co., which increased by 25.0%, 22.6%, and 21.0% respectively [23]. Key Events - The report discusses significant events such as the launch of the new electric SUV i6 by Li Auto, which is priced starting at 249,800 yuan and features advanced driving assistance systems [7][52]. - The report mentions the delivery commencement of the new AITO M7, which has a monthly production capacity of over 30,000 units and has received strong market demand with over 230,000 pre-orders [11][12]. - The report also highlights the launch of the Shangjie H5, which targets the mainstream market with a price range of 159,800 to 199,800 yuan and features advanced driving assistance technology [14][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers with strong performance and overseas expansion capabilities [4]. - It suggests monitoring companies involved in the integration of state-owned enterprises, such as SAIC Motor and Dongfeng Motor [4]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in component manufacturers like Fuyao Glass, New Spring, and others that have strong growth prospects and are involved in robotics [4].

汽车行业周报 奇瑞汽车登陆港交所，多款新车抢滩"金九银十" 中游制造/汽车 ❑ 风险提示：生产不及预期；消费不及预期；盈利不及预期。 证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 9 月 21 日至 9 月 27 日，汽车行业整体上涨 0.1%。本周，奇瑞汽车登陆港交所， 该股以 34.20 港元开盘，较 30.75 港元的 IPO 发行价高出 11%。另外，赛力斯 发行 H 股获证监会备案。多款新车在国庆假期到来之前集中上市，本周重磅上 市的新车型有尚界 H5、问界新 M7 和理想 i6 等，其中，尚界 H5 售价 15.98 万 元起，上市 1 小时大定突破 1 万台；理想 i6 定价 24.98 万元，限时 1 万元的现 金减免，另外获赠总额 2.5 万元的双腔空悬、压缩机冷暖箱和静音电吸门。 ❑ 市场板块行情回顾 本周 CS 汽车+0.1%。本周（9 月 21 日至 9 月 27 日，下同）上证 A 指涨跌 幅为+0.2%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为-0.1%，创业板涨跌幅为+2.0%。本周各行业 板块多数下跌，涨幅居前的行业板块为 CS 电子（+3.7%）、CS 有 ...

Group 1 - The electric equipment and new energy sector increased by 3.86% this week, ranking first in terms of growth, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11 points, up 8.02 points, with a growth rate of 0.21%, and a total transaction volume of 49,582.82 billion [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209 points, up 138.13 points, with a growth rate of 1.06%, and a total transaction volume of 65,023.74 billion [1][2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3151.53 points, up 60.53 points, with a growth rate of 1.96%, and a total transaction volume of 30,832.05 billion [1][2] - The electric equipment index closed at 9749.37 points, up 362.57 points, with a growth rate of 3.86%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1][2] Group 2 - On September 23, 2025, the new Wanjie M7 and Shangjie H5 were officially launched, offering 12 configurations with prices ranging from 279,800 to 379,800 yuan [3] - The Wanjie M7 features two power versions, with a maximum CLTC comprehensive range of 1625 km and a pure electric range of 315 km [3] - The Shangjie H5 offers 6 models with similar power options, priced between 159,800 and 199,800 yuan [3] Group 3 - As of August 2025, the newly installed solar power capacity increased by 230.61 GW year-on-year, representing a growth of 64.73% [4] - In August, the newly installed solar power capacity was 7.36 GW, showing a year-on-year decrease of 55.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 33.33% [4] Group 4 - In August 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [5] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative electricity consumption was 68,788 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [5] - The electricity consumption by the primary industry was 1,012 billion kWh, up 10.6% year-on-year, while the secondary industry consumed 43,386 billion kWh, up 3.1% year-on-year [5] - The electricity consumption by the tertiary industry was 13,297 billion kWh, up 7.7% year-on-year, and residential electricity consumption was 11,094 billion kWh, up 6.6% year-on-year [5]