关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众 号及作者概不承担任何责任。 去年年底我想 25年这一年涨了不少， 还依稀记得24年惨淡的行情， 我要保守， 26年能挣 5%我就满足了。 这开年第一周，科创板指数都已经涨了10% 连转债等权指数都涨了5.44% 去年年底我想 25年这一年涨了不少 还依稀记得24年惨淡的行情 我要保守 26年能挣5%我就 满足了 这开年第一周，科创板指数都已经涨了10% 连转债等权指数都涨了5.44% | | 指数涨幅统计(刷新) 历史数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | | | 本日涨幅 本周涨幅 本月涨幅 本季涨幅 本年涨幅 | | | | 000680 | 科创综指 | 1803.40 | 2.09% | 10.19% | 10.19% | 10.19% | 10.19% | | 000688 | 科创50 | 1475.97 | 1.43% | 9.80% | 9.80% | 9.80 ...

智通财经APP获悉，12月31日，恒生指数公司发表《2025年终市场总结报告》。2025年，以恒生指数(恒指)为代表的香港股票市场上升27.8%，为2017年以 来最佳表现。2024年录得17.7%升幅后，除3月底因贸易冲突而有所回落，恒指于2025年大部分时间均稳步向上。2025年升势由多个主要因素组成，包括港 股通创纪录的资金流入、对人工智能未来发展的憧憬，以及降息等。2025年，恒指表现跑赢另外两项旗舰指数—恒生中国企业指数(国指)及恒生科技指数(科 指)，两者分别上涨22.3%及23.5%。值得留意的是，追踪恒生生物科技指数的期货于11月推出，而该指数于2025年上升64.5%。 ESG指数方面，恒生气候变化1.5℃目标指数表现较佳，年度升幅为31.2%。 2025年，恒生综合指数(恒生综指)上涨31.0%。在恒生综指中，中型股上升31.6%，领先大型股(+30.8%)及小型股(+28.8%)。在恒生综指的行业指数中，原材 料业表现最佳，上升161.3%，公用事业则是表现最差的行业，录得5.7%升幅。 香港上市的主题指数方面，恒生港股通创新药指数及恒生医疗保健指数表现最佳，年度升幅分别为64.0%及5 ...

Core Insights - The Hang Seng Index Company has evolved from a small service company to an international index provider, reflecting the growth of Hong Kong's financial market over more than half a century [1][2] - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound strongly, with IPO fundraising returning to the top globally and the Hang Seng Index experiencing a year-to-date increase of over 30% [1][2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index is projected to have an upward potential of approximately 7000 points in 2025, with the information technology sector contributing the most at around 2000 points, followed by finance and consumer sectors each contributing about 1900 points [2] - The healthcare sector, despite its 3% weight, is expected to contribute over 400 points, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index showing a year-to-date increase of over 73% [2] Index Reform and Composition - The Hang Seng Index has undergone significant reforms since its inception in 1969, expanding its constituent stocks from 33 to 88, with a market capitalization coverage of 66% [3][4] - The weight of the consumer sector in the index has increased by 15 percentage points to approximately 30%, while the financial sector's weight has decreased by 13 percentage points to around 30% [3] Product Development and Market Demand - There is a growing demand for thematic indices, particularly in technology and high-yield sectors, with the company launching 15 new indices in 2025, seven of which focus on yield and strategy [6] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen significant growth in overseas markets, with assets under management (AUM) in Europe and the US increasing threefold and fourfold, respectively [6] Global Market Engagement - The company has expanded its business to cover 37 markets globally, with a notable presence in Malaysia, where products tracking the Hang Seng Index account for 70% of the local market's turnover [8] - The company aims to enhance Hong Kong's role as a "super connector" by continuously seeking opportunities to launch index products that attract foreign investment [8] Investor Trends - The biotechnology sector has seen a surge in interest, driven by the mainland market, with the number of ETFs tracking this sector increasing from 8 to 13 and AUM doubling to 28 billion RMB [10][11] - There is a notable difference in investment focus between domestic and foreign investors, with overseas investors particularly interested in technology indices [13]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by fundamental improvements and the potential for AI industry catalysis, which may enhance the net asset return (ROE) of related sectors, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded significantly since early 2024, with major indices reaching new highs in 2025. As of November 4, 2023, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have increased by 29.37%, 30.22%, and 25.83% respectively this year [1][2]. Market Adjustments - The market experienced notable adjustments in April and October 2023, leading to a high-level consolidation phase. Investors are particularly focused on whether the market can maintain its upward momentum and set new highs in 2026 [2][3]. Earnings Growth - It is predicted that the revenue growth rate for non-financial overseas Chinese companies will reach 4% in 2026, with operating profit growth expected to be 13%. This profit growth is attributed to cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and advancements in AI applications [2][3]. Valuation Insights - Current valuations of the Hong Kong stock market are considered low, especially in the technology sector, providing ample room for further upward movement. Historical comparisons indicate that the market is undervalued, suggesting significant potential for valuation recovery [3][4]. Capital Inflows - There is a high certainty of incremental capital inflows into the Hong Kong market in 2026, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 1.27 trillion HKD since 2025, marking a historical high. The inflow structure is expected to become more balanced [4][5]. Domestic and Foreign Investment - Domestic institutional investors, including public funds and insurance companies, are increasingly influencing the pricing power in the Hong Kong market. It is anticipated that net inflows from southbound funds could exceed 1.5 trillion RMB in 2026 [5][6]. Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI advancements, is expected to be the main focus for the Hong Kong market in 2026. Additionally, there is a recommendation to pay attention to innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, which are anticipated to perform well due to favorable market conditions [6].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 3.5% and 4.0% respectively in October, while the Hang Seng Composite Index dropped by 3.9% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index, which tracks leading technology companies in Hong Kong, experienced a significant decline of 8.6% [1] - The Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong 500 Index recorded a 1.7% decrease, and the Hang Seng A-Share 300 Index saw a slight decline of 0.1% [1] Sector Performance - The energy sector showed strong performance in October with a gain of 6.6%, while the healthcare sector performed poorly, declining by 11.0% [3] ESG Indices - The Hang Seng Sustainable Development Enterprises Index in Hong Kong had a relatively better performance with a decline of only 0.6%, whereas the Hang Seng A-Share Sustainable Development Enterprises Benchmark Index in mainland China showed a positive performance with an increase of 0.8% [5] Thematic Indices - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Mainland Banks Index performed well in Hong Kong with a gain of 4.5%, while the Hang Seng A-Share Power Grid Equipment Index also performed well in mainland China with an increase of 3.2% [7] Factor Indices - The Hang Seng Large and Mid-Cap Dividend Yield All-Select Index fell by 2.8%, but it outperformed other factor indices in the Hong Kong market [10] - The Hang Seng A-Share Value All-Select Index increased by 0.3%, and the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Dividend Yield All-Select Index decreased by 0.7%, both showing better performance in their respective markets [10] - The Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Composite Index declined by 1.5% [10] Asset Management - As of October 31, the total assets under management for passive tracking products of the Hang Seng Index series amounted to approximately $114.7 billion, reflecting a decrease of 0.9% [10] - The assets under management for exchange-traded products linked to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index were approximately $24.4 billion (-10.5%), $6.8 billion (-0.4%), and $43.1 billion (+3.5%) respectively [10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in September, with discussions focusing on the magnitude of the cut, speculated to be between 25 to 75 basis points, with a 74% probability for a 75 basis point cut as of September 14, 2025[2][11] - Historical data indicates that Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to changes in U.S. monetary policy due to the linked exchange rate system between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar[10] Group 2: Historical Performance of Hong Kong Indices - In previous rate cut cycles, the three major Hong Kong indices (Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) typically exhibit a volatile pattern in the 30 trading days leading up to the cut, followed by a period of adjustment post-cut[22][29] - The Hang Seng Tech Index tends to show smaller declines immediately after a rate cut and greater gains in the subsequent period compared to the other indices[29][31] Group 3: Market Reactions Post Rate Cut - On average, the three indices tend to decline in the two trading days before the cut, rise on the day before, and then drop on the day of the cut and the following two days[33][39] - After a rate cut, the Hang Seng Tech Index has historically shown a stronger recovery, with average returns of 1.03% in the four weeks following the cut, compared to 0.08% for the Hang Seng Index[19][24] Group 4: Comparison with Previous Rate Cut Cycles - The current environment is more complex than previous rate cut cycles in 2019 and 2024, with persistent inflation and economic slowdown concerns[49][51] - Historical examples of "recessionary rate cuts" show that the performance of the indices can vary significantly based on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, indicating that a recessionary context does not guarantee a decline in stock prices[56][62] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include historical data bias, extrapolation risks, and the possibility that the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts may be lower than expected[61]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index will expand its constituent stocks from 85 to 88, with the changes effective from September 8, 2025, following a review by the Hang Seng Index Company [3][4]. Group 1: Index Changes - The Hang Seng Index will include three new stocks: China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart [4][6]. - The Hang Seng Composite Index will also see an increase in constituent stocks from 502 to 504 [2][7]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will maintain 50 stocks, adding Pop Mart while removing Jitu Express [7]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown relatively weak performance compared to the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27% this week [9]. - Notable stock performances include Anta Sports rising by 11.53% and NIO increasing by 27.75% [9]. - Southbound Stock Connect has shown strong interest in Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding HKD 50 billion on August 22, and a total of approximately HKD 900 billion in net purchases for August [10].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index will increase its constituent stocks from 85 to 88, adding China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart [5][3] - The Hang Seng Composite Index will also expand from 502 to 504 constituent stocks [2] - The changes will take effect after the market closes on September 5, 2025, and will be implemented on September 8, 2025 [9][3] Group 2 - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will maintain 50 constituent stocks, adding Pop Mart and removing J&T Express [8] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index will decrease from 50 to 30 constituent stocks, adding InnoCare Pharma and removing 21 stocks including Hutchison China MediTech [8] - The Hang Seng Composite Index will see an addition of 24 stocks including China Foods, Hengrui Medicine, and Boleton, while 22 stocks will be removed [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown relatively weak performance compared to the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27% this week [11] - Notable stock performance includes Anta Sports rising by 11.53% and several other stocks increasing over 5%, while some stocks like China Resources Power and Zijin Mining fell over 5% [11] - Southbound Stock Connect funds have shown strong interest in Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding HKD 50 billion on August 22, and cumulative net purchases of approximately HKD 900 billion in August [12]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound this week, with sectors such as PEEK materials, China Shipbuilding, brain-computer interfaces, and liquid cooling servers showing strength, while CRO, innovative drugs, and film and theater sectors faced adjustments [1] - The Hang Seng Index showed a mixed performance, with technology stocks rebounding and pharmaceutical stocks weakening [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.2%, the CSI 500 Index increased by 1.3%, the ChiNext Index grew by 0.5%, the STAR Market 50 Index climbed by 0.7%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index went up by 1.0% [1][3] Index Valuation - The rolling P/E ratios for major indices are as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: 13.3x - CSI 500 Index: 15.4x - ChiNext Index: 33.9x - STAR Market 50 Index: 141.2x - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index: 10.4x [3] Cumulative Performance - Cumulative performance over various time frames is as follows: - 1-month: Shanghai Composite +2.8%, CSI 500 +3.8%, ChiNext +6.8%, STAR Market +6.1%, Hang Seng +3.5% - 3-month: Shanghai Composite +6.7%, CSI 500 +7.2%, ChiNext +16.0%, STAR Market +3.7%, Hang Seng +7.1% - Year-to-date: Shanghai Composite +4.3%, CSI 500 +5.3%, ChiNext +9.0%, STAR Market +5.5%, Hang Seng +22.0% - 1-year: Shanghai Composite +23.2%, CSI 500 +25.7%, ChiNext +46.3%, STAR Market +47.9%, Hang Seng +47.8% - 3-year: Shanghai Composite -1.2%, CSI 500 -3.7%, ChiNext -13.4%, STAR Market -10.2%, Hang Seng +30.9% - 5-year: Shanghai Composite -12.8%, CSI 500 -10.1%, ChiNext -15.1%, STAR Market -31.7%, Hang Seng -11.6% [7]

Core Viewpoint - FXTM has announced a brand upgrade to enhance investor experience and provide superior trading options in the forex trading sector [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - FXTM has over 10 years of industry experience, serving more than 5 million investors across 180+ countries, showcasing both reputation and strength [3]. - The brand upgrade focuses on multiple dimensions including products, services, and security [3]. Group 2: Product Enhancements - The product offerings include forex, CFDs, stocks, and now feature new assets like the Russell 2000 Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, enabling one-stop trading [3]. - The trading platform has been optimized with MT4/MT5 and advanced indicators, along with improved account opening processes and localized payment options [3]. Group 3: Trading Environment and Value - FXTM has received over 45 industry awards for its quality services and products, offering low spreads, low commissions, and flexible leverage to reduce trading costs [3]. - The execution speed is exceptional, with over 99% of orders completed within one second [3]. Group 4: Security Measures - FXTM is regulated by authorities in Mauritius, the UK, and South Africa, and collaborates with Lloyds Banking Group to provide a compensation fund of up to $1,000,000 for each client [3]. - Client funds are kept separate from operational funds, ensuring safety [3]. Group 5: Customer Support - The platform offers a wealth of free educational resources and real-time market analysis to enhance trading skills [3]. - 24/5 localized customer service is available to address inquiries, along with intelligent risk management tools to help manage risks [3].