在恒生指数有限公司（以下简称恒生指数公司）位于中国香港中环的总部内，有一面充满历史气息的 数 字 背 景 墙 。其 中 的"19691124"，代表恒生指数（以下或简称恒指）诞生的日子，"19940808"则代 表恒生中国企业指数的问世日期。这些数字，浓缩了香港金融市场半个多世纪的波澜壮阔与不断发展。 1997年7月1日，香港尖沙咀东部的大厦挂上了庆祝香港回归祖国的灯饰。巫婉雯在这一年加入恒生指数 公司（旧称恒生指数服务公司），自此开启了与香港金融市场同行的旅途。 从最初仅有7人的服务性质公司一路走来，如今恒生指数公司已成为一家国际性指数公司，旗下港股指 数已在中国内地获60只相关ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）追踪，恒生指数系列挂钩的产品横跨全球17 个市场。在这个历程中，巫婉雯从基层职员一路升至董事、行政总裁兼客户管理总监，她的职业生涯几 乎完整映照了中国香港和中国内地金融市场的崛起与转型，她也亲身参与并推动了多项与恒指有关的里 程碑事件。 2025年，港股市场迎来强势反弹，IPO（首次公开募股）募资额重返全球第一，恒指年内涨幅一度突破 30%，科技、消费、生物科技等领域协同发力，南向资金与海外资本双向涌入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by fundamental improvements and the potential for AI industry catalysis, which may enhance the net asset return (ROE) of related sectors, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded significantly since early 2024, with major indices reaching new highs in 2025. As of November 4, 2023, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have increased by 29.37%, 30.22%, and 25.83% respectively this year [1][2]. Market Adjustments - The market experienced notable adjustments in April and October 2023, leading to a high-level consolidation phase. Investors are particularly focused on whether the market can maintain its upward momentum and set new highs in 2026 [2][3]. Earnings Growth - It is predicted that the revenue growth rate for non-financial overseas Chinese companies will reach 4% in 2026, with operating profit growth expected to be 13%. This profit growth is attributed to cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and advancements in AI applications [2][3]. Valuation Insights - Current valuations of the Hong Kong stock market are considered low, especially in the technology sector, providing ample room for further upward movement. Historical comparisons indicate that the market is undervalued, suggesting significant potential for valuation recovery [3][4]. Capital Inflows - There is a high certainty of incremental capital inflows into the Hong Kong market in 2026, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 1.27 trillion HKD since 2025, marking a historical high. The inflow structure is expected to become more balanced [4][5]. Domestic and Foreign Investment - Domestic institutional investors, including public funds and insurance companies, are increasingly influencing the pricing power in the Hong Kong market. It is anticipated that net inflows from southbound funds could exceed 1.5 trillion RMB in 2026 [5][6]. Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI advancements, is expected to be the main focus for the Hong Kong market in 2026. Additionally, there is a recommendation to pay attention to innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, which are anticipated to perform well due to favorable market conditions [6].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 3.5% and 4.0% respectively in October, while the Hang Seng Composite Index dropped by 3.9% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index, which tracks leading technology companies in Hong Kong, experienced a significant decline of 8.6% [1] - The Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong 500 Index recorded a 1.7% decrease, and the Hang Seng A-Share 300 Index saw a slight decline of 0.1% [1] Sector Performance - The energy sector showed strong performance in October with a gain of 6.6%, while the healthcare sector performed poorly, declining by 11.0% [3] ESG Indices - The Hang Seng Sustainable Development Enterprises Index in Hong Kong had a relatively better performance with a decline of only 0.6%, whereas the Hang Seng A-Share Sustainable Development Enterprises Benchmark Index in mainland China showed a positive performance with an increase of 0.8% [5] Thematic Indices - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Mainland Banks Index performed well in Hong Kong with a gain of 4.5%, while the Hang Seng A-Share Power Grid Equipment Index also performed well in mainland China with an increase of 3.2% [7] Factor Indices - The Hang Seng Large and Mid-Cap Dividend Yield All-Select Index fell by 2.8%, but it outperformed other factor indices in the Hong Kong market [10] - The Hang Seng A-Share Value All-Select Index increased by 0.3%, and the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Dividend Yield All-Select Index decreased by 0.7%, both showing better performance in their respective markets [10] - The Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Composite Index declined by 1.5% [10] Asset Management - As of October 31, the total assets under management for passive tracking products of the Hang Seng Index series amounted to approximately $114.7 billion, reflecting a decrease of 0.9% [10] - The assets under management for exchange-traded products linked to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index were approximately $24.4 billion (-10.5%), $6.8 billion (-0.4%), and $43.1 billion (+3.5%) respectively [10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in September, with discussions focusing on the magnitude of the cut, speculated to be between 25 to 75 basis points, with a 74% probability for a 75 basis point cut as of September 14, 2025[2][11] - Historical data indicates that Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to changes in U.S. monetary policy due to the linked exchange rate system between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar[10] Group 2: Historical Performance of Hong Kong Indices - In previous rate cut cycles, the three major Hong Kong indices (Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) typically exhibit a volatile pattern in the 30 trading days leading up to the cut, followed by a period of adjustment post-cut[22][29] - The Hang Seng Tech Index tends to show smaller declines immediately after a rate cut and greater gains in the subsequent period compared to the other indices[29][31] Group 3: Market Reactions Post Rate Cut - On average, the three indices tend to decline in the two trading days before the cut, rise on the day before, and then drop on the day of the cut and the following two days[33][39] - After a rate cut, the Hang Seng Tech Index has historically shown a stronger recovery, with average returns of 1.03% in the four weeks following the cut, compared to 0.08% for the Hang Seng Index[19][24] Group 4: Comparison with Previous Rate Cut Cycles - The current environment is more complex than previous rate cut cycles in 2019 and 2024, with persistent inflation and economic slowdown concerns[49][51] - Historical examples of "recessionary rate cuts" show that the performance of the indices can vary significantly based on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, indicating that a recessionary context does not guarantee a decline in stock prices[56][62] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include historical data bias, extrapolation risks, and the possibility that the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts may be lower than expected[61]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index will expand its constituent stocks from 85 to 88, with the changes effective from September 8, 2025, following a review by the Hang Seng Index Company [3][4]. Group 1: Index Changes - The Hang Seng Index will include three new stocks: China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart [4][6]. - The Hang Seng Composite Index will also see an increase in constituent stocks from 502 to 504 [2][7]. - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will maintain 50 stocks, adding Pop Mart while removing Jitu Express [7]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown relatively weak performance compared to the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27% this week [9]. - Notable stock performances include Anta Sports rising by 11.53% and NIO increasing by 27.75% [9]. - Southbound Stock Connect has shown strong interest in Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding HKD 50 billion on August 22, and a total of approximately HKD 900 billion in net purchases for August [10].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index will increase its constituent stocks from 85 to 88, adding China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart [5][3] - The Hang Seng Composite Index will also expand from 502 to 504 constituent stocks [2] - The changes will take effect after the market closes on September 5, 2025, and will be implemented on September 8, 2025 [9][3] Group 2 - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will maintain 50 constituent stocks, adding Pop Mart and removing J&T Express [8] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index will decrease from 50 to 30 constituent stocks, adding InnoCare Pharma and removing 21 stocks including Hutchison China MediTech [8] - The Hang Seng Composite Index will see an addition of 24 stocks including China Foods, Hengrui Medicine, and Boleton, while 22 stocks will be removed [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown relatively weak performance compared to the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27% this week [11] - Notable stock performance includes Anta Sports rising by 11.53% and several other stocks increasing over 5%, while some stocks like China Resources Power and Zijin Mining fell over 5% [11] - Southbound Stock Connect funds have shown strong interest in Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding HKD 50 billion on August 22, and cumulative net purchases of approximately HKD 900 billion in August [12]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound this week, with sectors such as PEEK materials, China Shipbuilding, brain-computer interfaces, and liquid cooling servers showing strength, while CRO, innovative drugs, and film and theater sectors faced adjustments [1] - The Hang Seng Index showed a mixed performance, with technology stocks rebounding and pharmaceutical stocks weakening [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.2%, the CSI 500 Index increased by 1.3%, the ChiNext Index grew by 0.5%, the STAR Market 50 Index climbed by 0.7%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index went up by 1.0% [1][3] Index Valuation - The rolling P/E ratios for major indices are as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: 13.3x - CSI 500 Index: 15.4x - ChiNext Index: 33.9x - STAR Market 50 Index: 141.2x - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index: 10.4x [3] Cumulative Performance - Cumulative performance over various time frames is as follows: - 1-month: Shanghai Composite +2.8%, CSI 500 +3.8%, ChiNext +6.8%, STAR Market +6.1%, Hang Seng +3.5% - 3-month: Shanghai Composite +6.7%, CSI 500 +7.2%, ChiNext +16.0%, STAR Market +3.7%, Hang Seng +7.1% - Year-to-date: Shanghai Composite +4.3%, CSI 500 +5.3%, ChiNext +9.0%, STAR Market +5.5%, Hang Seng +22.0% - 1-year: Shanghai Composite +23.2%, CSI 500 +25.7%, ChiNext +46.3%, STAR Market +47.9%, Hang Seng +47.8% - 3-year: Shanghai Composite -1.2%, CSI 500 -3.7%, ChiNext -13.4%, STAR Market -10.2%, Hang Seng +30.9% - 5-year: Shanghai Composite -12.8%, CSI 500 -10.1%, ChiNext -15.1%, STAR Market -31.7%, Hang Seng -11.6% [7]

Core Viewpoint - FXTM has announced a brand upgrade to enhance investor experience and provide superior trading options in the forex trading sector [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - FXTM has over 10 years of industry experience, serving more than 5 million investors across 180+ countries, showcasing both reputation and strength [3]. - The brand upgrade focuses on multiple dimensions including products, services, and security [3]. Group 2: Product Enhancements - The product offerings include forex, CFDs, stocks, and now feature new assets like the Russell 2000 Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, enabling one-stop trading [3]. - The trading platform has been optimized with MT4/MT5 and advanced indicators, along with improved account opening processes and localized payment options [3]. Group 3: Trading Environment and Value - FXTM has received over 45 industry awards for its quality services and products, offering low spreads, low commissions, and flexible leverage to reduce trading costs [3]. - The execution speed is exceptional, with over 99% of orders completed within one second [3]. Group 4: Security Measures - FXTM is regulated by authorities in Mauritius, the UK, and South Africa, and collaborates with Lloyds Banking Group to provide a compensation fund of up to $1,000,000 for each client [3]. - Client funds are kept separate from operational funds, ensuring safety [3]. Group 5: Customer Support - The platform offers a wealth of free educational resources and real-time market analysis to enhance trading skills [3]. - 24/5 localized customer service is available to address inquiries, along with intelligent risk management tools to help manage risks [3].

Core Viewpoint - FXTM has announced a comprehensive brand upgrade with the new commitment "Gives You More," aiming to provide greater value and opportunities for global investors [1] Group 1: Brand Upgrade and Market Focus - The brand upgrade is initially launched in the global Chinese market and South Africa, with plans to expand to over 180 countries and regions, benefiting more than 5 million customers [1][2] - The choice of the Chinese market as the launch site highlights FXTM's emphasis on its Chinese customer base and its commitment to injecting more opportunities and value into this key market [2] Group 2: Product and Service Enhancements - FXTM has expanded its product offerings, including the addition of the US Russell 2000 Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, along with over 100 Hong Kong and Japanese stocks for over-the-counter trading [2] - The company has optimized account options, providing powerful MT4/MT5 trading platforms and advanced trading indicators, while simplifying the account opening process and offering more localized payment methods [2] Group 3: Investment Environment and Customer Assurance - Through technological innovation and platform upgrades, FXTM aims to create a superior investment environment with a flexible commission structure, offering leverage up to 3000 times to cater to different risk preferences [2] - The company boasts a rapid order execution rate of over 99% within one second and has partnered with Lloyds Banking Group to provide a compensation fund of $1,000,000 for each customer [2] Group 4: Future Developments - FXTM will launch a new official website featuring a dedicated section for high-net-worth clients, aiming to provide a smoother and more personalized service experience [3] - The brand upgrade serves as a new starting point for FXTM to continue innovating and partnering with global clients to embark on an extraordinary trading journey [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised its target index for the Chinese stock market due to ongoing structural improvements and recent positive developments in tariffs and earnings [1] - The target index levels for June 2026 are set at 78 points for the MSCI China Index, 24,500 points for the Hang Seng Index, 8,900 points for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and 4,000 points for the CSI 300 Index [1]