Group 1: Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Sector - The pharmaceutical and medical device sector experienced an overall decline of 2.07% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, ranking 23rd among 31 industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.63 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 24.17%, ranking 10th among 31 industries and outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.76 percentage points. The current PE valuation for the sector is 31.18 times, at the historical median level, with a 136% premium over the CSI 300 valuation [5][6][7]. - The National Medical Insurance Administration has completed the review of the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Directory and the commercial insurance innovative drug directory, moving into the core negotiation and price consultation phase. The 11th batch of national procurement has officially included 55 major varieties, with optimizations in application requirements, volume, and rules, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [6][7]. - The Shanghai government has issued a comprehensive action plan to promote the high-end medical device industry, focusing on innovation, clinical empowerment, regulatory approval, market application, enterprise cultivation, and international development, with 20 key tasks outlined to support industry growth [6][7]. Group 2: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial index fell by 3.7% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.3 percentage points, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing synchronized declines of -3.5% and -4.8%, respectively. The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 29,885 billion yuan, an 8% increase from the previous week [9][10]. - Market enthusiasm and activity remain high, with a focus on the performance catalysts from the upcoming third-quarter reports. The average daily trading volume for stock funds has increased by 108% year-on-year as of September 19, 2025, positively impacting brokerage, credit, and proprietary trading sectors [10][12]. - The establishment of a health management company by PICC and the continued increase of holdings in China Pacific Insurance by Ping An Life indicate a trend towards integrating health management with health insurance, enhancing operational efficiency and profitability [11][12]. Group 3: Economic and Market Overview - The LPR for both the 5-year and 1-year terms remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively, as of September 2025, indicating stable lending rates [14]. - The steel industry has set a target for an average annual growth of 4% over the next two years, with a strict prohibition on new capacity additions, reflecting a focus on structural adjustment and high-quality development [16]. - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,828 points, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices also saw gains, indicating a cautious recovery amid ongoing market volatility [17][18].

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector has led the market with a 50.88% increase in the Hang Seng Healthcare Index this year, driven by innovative drugs and CXO services [1] - Three main drivers are contributing to the industry's value reassessment: policy benefits, technological breakthroughs, and capital inflow [1] - The E Fund Pharmaceutical ETF Connect Fund has achieved a 15.29% return over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, with a fund size exceeding 20.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The current pharmaceutical industry is supported by both policy and demand, with improved negotiation rules for medical insurance and a solid growth in medical spending due to aging and consumption upgrades [1] - Core assets like WuXi AppTec and Mindray Medical are still recognized despite short-term pressures, with 15 out of 18 institutions giving a "buy" rating to Kelun Pharmaceutical [1] - The E Fund Pharmaceutical ETF Connect C has shown strong defensive characteristics, with a 6.58% return over the past three months, outperforming the 300 Pharmaceutical Index [1] Group 3 - The E Fund Pharmaceutical ETF Connect Fund offers a cost-effective way for investors to access leading pharmaceutical companies, with a current PE ratio of 28.61, below the five-year average [2] - The fund's management fee is only 0.5%, significantly lower than the typical 1.5% for actively managed pharmaceutical funds, making it attractive for investors [2] - A "pyramid-style" accumulation strategy is recommended for investors, with short-term traders focusing on the C share class and long-term investors on the A share class [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese capital market is gaining unique attractiveness due to its reform dividends and institutional resilience amidst global financial market volatility [1] - The introduction of new policies is fundamentally reshaping the capital market ecosystem, transitioning from a financing market to an investment and wealth management market [1] - Analysts predict a steady advancement of the Chinese macro economy and an upward shift in the valuation center of the A-share market in the second half of 2025 [1][5] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve with the gradual elimination of uncertainties following significant progress in US-China trade negotiations [2] - China's long-term economic prospects remain positive, supported by advancements in technology and industrial upgrades [2] - Five key highlights for the macro economy in the second half of 2025 include new consumption innovations, trends in de-globalization, manufacturing upgrades, expansionary fiscal policies, and steady institutional openness [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on four main lines: consumer sectors driven by domestic demand, technology sectors with a focus on innovation, industrial sectors promoting manufacturing upgrades, and defensive dividend sectors [3] - The A-share market is expected to experience a moderate upward trend due to quality improvements amid strict regulations [4] - A-shares are projected to undergo a phase of volatility followed by upward movement, with external factors like the fading "tariff shock" influencing market dynamics [5] Group 3: Asset Allocation - Investors are advised to maintain dividend assets as core holdings while actively exploring new investment opportunities in emerging sectors [6] - Suggested new investment areas include new consumer products, humanoid robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Jiangsu Wuxi Biopharmaceutical Industry Special Fund aims to promote the development of strategic emerging industries in Jiangsu Province, with a total scale of 4 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Fund Structure and Investment Strategy - The fund is established in collaboration with Wuxi City to support the integration and development of strategic emerging industry clusters [1]. - Investment methods include setting up sub-funds or direct project investments, with direct investments generally not exceeding 30% of the actual investment amount of the special fund [1]. - The special fund's contribution to sub-funds will not exceed 30% of the sub-fund's total size, and investments in individual direct projects will not exceed 20% of the total paid-in capital of the special fund [1]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The fund primarily invests in pharmaceuticals (including innovative drugs, high-end raw materials, traditional Chinese medicine, cell gene therapy, synthetic biology, etc.), medical devices (including in vitro diagnostic reagents and supporting instruments), and supportive medical industries (including research instruments, synthetic biology, CXO, new medical infrastructure, MAH platform companies, etc.) [2]. - Additional focus areas include consumer healthcare and improving national health quality (including health management, medical aesthetics, special medical foods, and functional foods), as well as AI in pharmaceuticals [2].

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.08%, driven by sectors such as military equipment restructuring, precious metals, and beer [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that A-shares are expected to return to a structural bull market in the medium term, relying on breakthroughs in the technology industry, while short-term focus remains on pharmaceuticals [1] - Huajin Securities predicts that A-shares may continue a strong oscillation trend in June, with technology and consumption as the main lines, and suggests potential opportunities in core assets and cyclical sectors [2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities notes a rebound in investors' risk appetite, with market style likely returning to the broad technology sector, particularly highlighting the growth potential of AI industry chain leaders [3] - The current market environment shows a reduced concern over tariffs, allowing for a more favorable atmosphere for thematic stocks to perform [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to remain in a high central oscillation phase during Q2, with short-term adjustments anticipated due to increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy and limited expansion space for new consumption [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Q2 is characterized as a high central oscillation market, with short-term adjustments expected [2]. - The upper limit of the oscillation range is supported by a combination of wide monetary policy and external demand improvements, but concerns about economic downturns remain [2][3]. - The lower limit is influenced by the timely implementation of monetary policies and the role of stabilization funds in managing market sentiment [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Technology and consumer sectors are currently not positioned to lead market breakthroughs, with technology still in a mid-term adjustment phase [2][4]. - New consumption trends are facing limitations in expanding outward due to reduced internal demand stimulus [2][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector (CXO and innovative drugs) and precious metals are expected to continue their positive trends in the short term [4]. Group 3: Fund Management and Market Dynamics - The recent trend of public funds aligning with performance benchmarks has concluded, with potential for a new round of market dynamics in June [5]. - Fund managers are encouraged to reassess their benchmark choices, as the alignment with performance benchmarks may not be suitable for all [3][4]. - The potential inflow of funds into sectors such as non-banking, banking, construction, public utilities, and coal is noted, although actual inflows remain low relative to market capitalization [3]. Group 4: Profitability and Economic Outlook - A general expectation is that A-shares will struggle to see a significant uptick in profitability until 2025 [2]. - The mid-term outlook for A-shares relies heavily on breakthroughs in the technology sector, particularly in AI, embodied intelligence, and defense industries [4]. - The combination of new merger regulations and venture capital financing is anticipated to contribute positively to high-growth segments of the new economy [4]. Group 5: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment indicators show varying levels of profitability across sectors, with banking at 97% and consumer sectors like beauty care and pharmaceuticals showing moderate expansion [8]. - Sectors such as public utilities and basic chemicals are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for focused investment strategies [8]. - The overall A-share market sentiment is showing signs of contraction, with only 42% of stocks indicating profitability expansion [8].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Focus - The report focuses on the pharmaceutical industry, specifically highlighting innovative drugs and contract research organizations (CXO) Core Insights and Arguments - Continuous recommendation of innovative drugs with positive growth outlook, including: - 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) - 华东医药 (East China Pharmaceutical) - 翰森制药 (Hansoh Pharmaceutical) - 贝达药业 (Betta Pharmaceuticals) - 信立泰 (Sinopharm) - 科伦药业 (Kelun Pharmaceutical) - 百利天恒 (Baili Tianheng) - 荣昌生物 (Rongchang Biopharmaceutical) - 科伦博泰生物 (Kelun Biotech) - 石药集团 (Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group) [1][1][1] - Recommendation of CXOs showing signs of profit growth turning points, including: - 药明生物 (WuXi Biologics) - 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec) [1][1] - Positive outlook on domestic replacement of innovative medical devices, specifically: - 惠泰医疗 (Huitai Medical) [1] - Anticipation of recovery in consumer healthcare, particularly: - 爱尔眼科 (Aier Eye Hospital) [1] Other Important Points - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of recommending companies that are positioned well within the pharmaceutical sector, particularly those that are expected to benefit from market dynamics and growth opportunities - The focus on innovative drugs and CXOs indicates a strategic approach to capitalize on emerging trends in the healthcare market - The mention of domestic replacements in medical devices suggests a shift towards local production and innovation, which could impact market competition and supply chains - The recovery in consumer healthcare points to potential growth areas as the market stabilizes post-pandemic

推荐创新药、CXO 与一季报强劲的消费 [Table_Industry] 医药 ——国泰海通医药 2025 年 5 月月报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 优于大市 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 医药制造业 增持 医药服务业 增持 本报告导读： 2025 年 4 月医药板块表现与大盘基本相当，推荐创新药、CXO 与一季报强劲的消费。 投资要点： 风险提示：医保控费加剧风险，政策推进不达预期风险，估值波动 风险，市场波动风险。 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 月 报 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.05 [table_Authors] 余文心(分析师) 郑琴(分析师) 谈嘉程(分析师) 021-38676666 021-38676666 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040111 S0880525040108 S0880523070004 2025-05-07 | 1. | 看好创新药、CXO | 与一季报强劲的消费 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. | 2025 ...