证券研究报告|传媒 [Table_Title] 2025 年游戏市场收入与用户规模达新高 点，移动端市场仍占主导地位 [Table_ReportType] ——传媒行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业Table_Summary] 事件： 2025 年 12 月 19 日，2025 年度中国游戏产业年会举办，会上对外发 布《2025 年中国游戏产业报告》。 投资要点： 国内游戏市场 2025 年市场收入与用户规模达新高点。2025 年，国 内游戏市场实际销售收入 3507.89 亿元，同比增长 7.68%，用户规模 6.83 亿，同比增长 1.35%，两者保持连续增长态势，同为历史新高 点。主要原因在于：一是移动游戏品质提升，新品市场表现出色；二 是多款头部长青游戏创新玩法、优化运营；三是小程序游戏增长强 劲；四是产品多端互通，玩家数量得以扩张。 从细分市场来看： （1）移动端市场仍占主导地位，长青产品及新产品共同发力带动规 模实现新突破。2025 年，国内移动游戏市场实销收入 2570.76 亿元， 同比增长 7.92%，规模又有新突破，占总体市场规模 72.39%。主要 由于《王者荣耀》 ...

《无畏契约》中国发行产品负责人文森 新浪数码讯 12月22日消息，近日，2025 App Store Awards 年度游戏《无畏契约：源能行动》的创作团 队在广州天环 Apple Store 进行了一场 Today at Apple 分享活动。拳头游戏《无畏契约》中国发行产品负 责人文森和《无畏契约：源能行动》主美术郑虎在活动中分享了角色、地图、玩法等方面的幕后故事分 享，以及无畏契约手游在 iPhone 和 iPad 设备上的优质体验。 《无畏契约手游》凭借完美复刻端游《无畏契约》的战术射击核心，同时适配移动端操作习惯，简化操 作的同时保留战术博弈的深度，首发即登顶 App Store 游戏排行榜，深受 iPhone 和 iPad 用户的肯定， 目前无畏契约国内手机端月活用户已经突破 5000万。 文森重点介绍了游戏设计和体验方面的特点。在游戏设计方面，《无畏契约手游》推出来自中国的角色 ——山城决斗者壹决和华夏守护者贤者，他们在角色造型和技能上都体现了中国元素。他还笑言，为了 提高自己的竞技水平，特别购入了 iPhone 17 Pro Max，并在 A19 Pro 芯片和 VC 均热板的加持下获得了 刷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [46] Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue reached 192.9 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 15% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5% [9][17] - The company's operating profit was 63.6 billion RMB, up 19% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter [9][17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion RMB, also reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase and a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase [9][17] - Non-IFRS operating profit and net profit both grew by 18% year-over-year, reaching 72.6 billion RMB and 70.6 billion RMB respectively [9][17] Summary by Sections 1. Operational Data - WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) reached 1.414 billion, growing 2.3% year-over-year and 0.2% quarter-over-quarter [10] - QQ's smart terminal MAU continued to decline year-over-year [10] - Paid value-added service accounts reached 265 million, stable compared to the previous year [10] 2. Overall Performance - Gross margin improved to 56.4%, up 3.28 percentage points year-over-year [21] - Non-IFRS operating profit and net profit both increased by 18% year-over-year [17][21] 3. Value-Added Services - Game revenue grew by 23% year-over-year, with domestic and international markets increasing by 15% and 43% respectively [29] - Tencent Video maintained a leading position with 114 million video subscribers [29] - Online music service revenue increased by 27.2% year-over-year to 6.97 billion RMB [29] 4. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue grew by 21% year-over-year to 36.2 billion RMB [38] - AI applications enhanced advertising click-through and conversion rates [38] 5. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services grew by 10% year-over-year to 58.2 billion RMB [41] - The average payment transaction amount increased, and the business maintained the lowest bad debt ratio in the industry [41] 6. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 753.9 billion, 847.4 billion, and 931.4 billion RMB respectively [42] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the same period are 260 billion, 298.9 billion, and 338.1 billion RMB [42] - The target market value for Tencent in 2025 is set at 6.6 trillion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD [42]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly in mobile gaming, with Tencent's titles leading the market. [1][2][3] Company Performance - **Delta Action**: - Q3 revenue reached approximately 7 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 120%. - Expected full-year revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 16 billion to 18 billion yuan, making it Tencent's second-largest revenue source. [1][2] - **Peacekeeper Elite**: - Q3 revenue grew only 2.1% year-on-year, impacted by a high base from the previous year and competition from Delta Action. - Daily active users (DAU) decreased from 48 million during the summer to between 45 million and 46 million. [1][2][5] - **Dungeon & Fighter Mobile**: - Q3 revenue was 3.6 billion yuan, a nearly 50% year-on-year decline, but remained stable quarter-on-quarter. - Long-term potential to exceed 10 billion yuan in revenue through localized content and anniversary events. [1][4] - **Valorant Mobile**: - First-month revenue reached 810 million yuan, aligning with expectations, with a projected first-year revenue of 5.5 billion to 6 billion yuan. [1][7] - **Honor of Kings**: - Q3 DAU peaked at 96 million, showing year-on-year growth. Future development will focus on IP integration, new skins, and gameplay innovation. [1][9] Market Dynamics - Tencent's PC gaming segment benefited from Delta Action, with a year-on-year growth of about 20%, while traditional top games saw revenue declines. - The overall domestic gaming market grew by 8% to 10% in Q3, with PC gaming growth exceeding 20% and mobile gaming growth around 6%. [3][10] Strategic Insights - Tencent is implementing cost-reduction strategies, including workforce optimization, with a 6% reduction in staff at major studios. Future resources will focus on large projects with significant headroom for growth. [3][12] - The success of Delta Action is attributed to its unique gameplay and effective commercialization strategies, including collaborations that enhanced user engagement. [4][5] User Engagement and Monetization - Delta Action's monthly active user (MAU) paid rate is approximately 35%, with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of about 65 yuan, indicating room for monetization growth compared to competitors like Peacekeeper Elite. [5] - The introduction of user-generated content (UGC) in Peacekeeper Elite has achieved a 60% penetration rate among total users, enhancing user engagement. [5][6] Future Outlook - Upcoming titles include "King of Glory World" and "Monster Hunter Mobile," with significant revenue expectations. The overseas market is anticipated to experience explosive growth due to previous investments and collaborations. [19][21][23] - The integration of AI in game development and operations is expected to enhance user experience and operational efficiency. [25][26] Conclusion - Tencent's gaming portfolio shows resilience and growth potential, with strategic focus areas including user engagement, innovative gameplay, and cost management. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in the gaming industry. [14][15][21]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry in China is experiencing a positive trend, with a record number of domestic game approvals and continued growth in market size, indicating a healthy long-term outlook for the sector [1] Industry Summary - On August 25, the National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 166 domestic online games, marking a historical high for game approvals [1] - A new batch of imported games was also approved, including 7 titles, reflecting ongoing regulatory support for the industry [1] - The gaming industry showed sustained growth in July 2025, with the domestic market size reaching 29.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.62% [1] - Mobile gaming experienced a slight growth of 0.92%, while client-based gaming saw a significant increase of 16.56% [1] - Notable game performances include Tencent's "Delta Action" achieving 20 million daily active users in July and the successful launch of the mobile game "Valorant" on August 19, which boosted user engagement [1] - Other games like Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and G-bits' "Staff Sword Legend" also performed well during July and August [1] - The industry is expected to perform well in the third quarter, particularly during the summer peak season, supported by favorable policies and abundant supply [1]

Group 1: Tencent Holdings (00700) Analysis - Tencent achieved a revenue of 184.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3% [2][14] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 2% [2][14] - The gaming segment showed strong performance, with international and domestic game revenues growing by 35% and 17% respectively in Q2 2025 [2][14] - Advertising revenue increased by 20% to 35.8 billion yuan, driven by AI enhancements that improved click-through rates [2][14] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 10% to 55.5 billion yuan, marking a return to double-digit growth [3][14] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with an adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 255.6 billion, 298 billion, and 336.8 billion yuan respectively [3][14] Group 2: Industry Trends and Insights - The wind power sector is experiencing a high growth period, with significant improvements in profitability reported by various companies [25] - The domestic wind power market is expected to see new installations reach 110 GW in 2025, with Q2 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 255.61% in new installations [25] - The market for non-road wide-body dump trucks is projected to grow significantly, driven by trends towards larger, electric, and unmanned vehicles [15][18] - The liquid cooling technology for data centers is gaining traction, with a projected market space of approximately 10 billion yuan due to increasing power density and cooling needs [28][26] - The semiconductor industry is seeing a shift towards special integrated circuits, with demand driven by national defense and commercial satellite applications [21][29]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais has raised the target price for Tencent Holdings (00700) from HKD 645 to HKD 710, maintaining a "highly confident outperform" rating based on robust growth in gaming and advertising, as well as the success of new games [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Tencent is expected to continue its solid growth in gaming and advertising into Q2 2025, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT projected to grow by 10.1% and 10.2% year-on-year, reaching RMB 177.3 billion and RMB 64.4 billion respectively [1] - Online gaming revenue is anticipated to rise due to strong performance from classic games, particularly "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile," along with new games like "Delta Force" and "Nikke" [1] Group 2: Advertising and Cloud Business - Tencent's advertising revenue is likely to benefit from upgrades in advertising technology, as well as growth in video accounts, mini-programs, and search business [1] - The cloud business revenue is expected to recover to double-digit growth driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais forecasts Tencent Holdings will continue its robust growth in gaming and advertising by Q2 2025, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT expected to grow by 10.1% and 10.2% year-on-year, reaching 177.3 billion and 64.4 billion respectively [1] Gaming Revenue - Online gaming revenue is anticipated to rise due to strong performance from classic games, particularly "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile," along with the success of new games like "Delta Force" and "Victory Goddess: Nikki" [1] - The mobile version of "Valorant" is expected to be released in August [1] Advertising Revenue - Tencent's advertising revenue is likely to benefit from upgrades in advertising technology, as well as growth in video accounts, mini-programs, and search business [1] Cloud Business - Revenue from the cloud business is projected to recover to double-digit growth due to strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) [1] Target Price Adjustment - Based on the solid growth in gaming and advertising, as well as the success of new games, the target price has been raised from 64.5 HKD to 71.0 HKD, maintaining a "highly confident outperform" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts a significant performance divergence in the Chinese internet sector for Q2, driven by pressures on platform-based businesses while AI and gaming segments continue to grow [2][3]. Industry Overview - The Chinese internet sector is expected to experience its first year-on-year profit decline since 2022, estimated at -10%, primarily due to the underperformance of e-commerce and local service platforms. However, excluding major platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo, the remaining sectors are projected to see an 11% profit growth [3]. Key Focus Areas - **AI-Driven Growth**: There is a notable increase in demand for AI-driven services, significantly boosting cloud computing revenues. Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to accelerate from 18% in Q1 to 23% in Q2, aligning with trends seen in major global competitors. Tencent's AI advertising and gaming sectors are also contributing positively to profitability [4]. - **Profitability Pressure on Transaction Platforms**: Major platforms such as Meituan, JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo are anticipated to face profitability challenges in Q2. Alibaba's adjusted EBIT is expected to decline by 16%, while Meituan and JD.com may see declines of 58-70%. This downturn is largely attributed to intense competition in the instant delivery sector, with a prolonged period of losses expected [5]. - **Stable Growth in Gaming and Mobility**: In contrast to the challenges faced by transaction platforms, the gaming and mobility sectors are showing healthy profit growth. Tencent's gaming division is performing particularly well, with titles like "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" expected to generate significant annual revenues. Didi's ride-hailing services are projected to see an 11% increase in order volume, maintaining its market leadership [6][7]. Company-Specific Forecasts - **Tencent Holdings**: Expected Q2 revenue growth of 11% and adjusted EBIT growth of 15%. Gaming revenue is projected to increase by 15%, with advertising revenue up by 17%. Upcoming game launches are anticipated to drive further growth [8]. - **Alibaba**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 3% for FY2026, with adjusted EBIT expected to decline by 16%. Excluding certain factors, customer management revenue is projected to grow by 11%, and Alibaba Cloud's revenue is expected to rise by 23% [8]. - **Pinduoduo**: Expected Q2 revenue growth of 11%, but adjusted EBIT is forecasted to decline by 38%. The company is focusing on its international expansion strategy [8]. - **Meituan and JD.com**: Both companies are expected to experience significant impacts on their Q2 performance, with Meituan's revenue projected to grow by 16% but adjusted EBIT to decline by 58%. JD.com is also expected to see a 70% decline in overall EBIT [9].

Core Insights - ChinaJoy, known as the "Eastern E3," is a significant annual event for young people globally, celebrating its 22nd edition this year [1] - The event showcases the rapid growth of the Chinese gaming industry, evolving from a single gaming exhibition to a comprehensive digital interactive entertainment fair covering various sectors [3] Industry Overview - ChinaJoy features multiple thematic areas, attracting over 37 countries and regions, with foreign companies accounting for more than 30% of exhibitors [3] - The BTOB (business-to-business) section includes over 460 companies, occupying 25,000 square meters, while the BTOC (business-to-consumer) interactive entertainment area spans 110,000 square meters with over 280 exhibitors [3] Major Participants - Major domestic gaming companies such as Tencent, NetEase, and Century Huatong are prominently featured, showcasing multiple high-profile games [4] - Tencent presents 17 products occupying nearly half of its exhibition area, while Century Huatong has reduced its booth size to enhance player interaction [6][4] Interactive Experience - The event emphasizes immersive experiences, with various booths designed to facilitate deep player engagement rather than passive observation [6] - AI elements are prevalent, with companies like Baidu and Orange篇 showcasing AI-driven features that enhance user interaction and content creation [11][12] AI Integration - The integration of AI in gaming is a focal point, with companies exploring AI's potential to reshape the gaming landscape, enhancing both development efficiency and player experience [14] - AI technologies are being applied across the gaming industry, from automated translation to personalized player interactions, significantly improving operational efficiency [15][16]