Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [46] Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue reached 192.9 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 15% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5% [9][17] - The company's operating profit was 63.6 billion RMB, up 19% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter [9][17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion RMB, also reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase and a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase [9][17] - Non-IFRS operating profit and net profit both grew by 18% year-over-year, reaching 72.6 billion RMB and 70.6 billion RMB respectively [9][17] Summary by Sections 1. Operational Data - WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) reached 1.414 billion, growing 2.3% year-over-year and 0.2% quarter-over-quarter [10] - QQ's smart terminal MAU continued to decline year-over-year [10] - Paid value-added service accounts reached 265 million, stable compared to the previous year [10] 2. Overall Performance - Gross margin improved to 56.4%, up 3.28 percentage points year-over-year [21] - Non-IFRS operating profit and net profit both increased by 18% year-over-year [17][21] 3. Value-Added Services - Game revenue grew by 23% year-over-year, with domestic and international markets increasing by 15% and 43% respectively [29] - Tencent Video maintained a leading position with 114 million video subscribers [29] - Online music service revenue increased by 27.2% year-over-year to 6.97 billion RMB [29] 4. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue grew by 21% year-over-year to 36.2 billion RMB [38] - AI applications enhanced advertising click-through and conversion rates [38] 5. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services grew by 10% year-over-year to 58.2 billion RMB [41] - The average payment transaction amount increased, and the business maintained the lowest bad debt ratio in the industry [41] 6. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 753.9 billion, 847.4 billion, and 931.4 billion RMB respectively [42] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the same period are 260 billion, 298.9 billion, and 338.1 billion RMB [42] - The target market value for Tencent in 2025 is set at 6.6 trillion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD [42]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly in mobile gaming, with Tencent's titles leading the market. [1][2][3] Company Performance - **Delta Action**: - Q3 revenue reached approximately 7 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 120%. - Expected full-year revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 16 billion to 18 billion yuan, making it Tencent's second-largest revenue source. [1][2] - **Peacekeeper Elite**: - Q3 revenue grew only 2.1% year-on-year, impacted by a high base from the previous year and competition from Delta Action. - Daily active users (DAU) decreased from 48 million during the summer to between 45 million and 46 million. [1][2][5] - **Dungeon & Fighter Mobile**: - Q3 revenue was 3.6 billion yuan, a nearly 50% year-on-year decline, but remained stable quarter-on-quarter. - Long-term potential to exceed 10 billion yuan in revenue through localized content and anniversary events. [1][4] - **Valorant Mobile**: - First-month revenue reached 810 million yuan, aligning with expectations, with a projected first-year revenue of 5.5 billion to 6 billion yuan. [1][7] - **Honor of Kings**: - Q3 DAU peaked at 96 million, showing year-on-year growth. Future development will focus on IP integration, new skins, and gameplay innovation. [1][9] Market Dynamics - Tencent's PC gaming segment benefited from Delta Action, with a year-on-year growth of about 20%, while traditional top games saw revenue declines. - The overall domestic gaming market grew by 8% to 10% in Q3, with PC gaming growth exceeding 20% and mobile gaming growth around 6%. [3][10] Strategic Insights - Tencent is implementing cost-reduction strategies, including workforce optimization, with a 6% reduction in staff at major studios. Future resources will focus on large projects with significant headroom for growth. [3][12] - The success of Delta Action is attributed to its unique gameplay and effective commercialization strategies, including collaborations that enhanced user engagement. [4][5] User Engagement and Monetization - Delta Action's monthly active user (MAU) paid rate is approximately 35%, with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of about 65 yuan, indicating room for monetization growth compared to competitors like Peacekeeper Elite. [5] - The introduction of user-generated content (UGC) in Peacekeeper Elite has achieved a 60% penetration rate among total users, enhancing user engagement. [5][6] Future Outlook - Upcoming titles include "King of Glory World" and "Monster Hunter Mobile," with significant revenue expectations. The overseas market is anticipated to experience explosive growth due to previous investments and collaborations. [19][21][23] - The integration of AI in game development and operations is expected to enhance user experience and operational efficiency. [25][26] Conclusion - Tencent's gaming portfolio shows resilience and growth potential, with strategic focus areas including user engagement, innovative gameplay, and cost management. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in the gaming industry. [14][15][21]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry in China is experiencing a positive trend, with a record number of domestic game approvals and continued growth in market size, indicating a healthy long-term outlook for the sector [1] Industry Summary - On August 25, the National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 166 domestic online games, marking a historical high for game approvals [1] - A new batch of imported games was also approved, including 7 titles, reflecting ongoing regulatory support for the industry [1] - The gaming industry showed sustained growth in July 2025, with the domestic market size reaching 29.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.62% [1] - Mobile gaming experienced a slight growth of 0.92%, while client-based gaming saw a significant increase of 16.56% [1] - Notable game performances include Tencent's "Delta Action" achieving 20 million daily active users in July and the successful launch of the mobile game "Valorant" on August 19, which boosted user engagement [1] - Other games like Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and G-bits' "Staff Sword Legend" also performed well during July and August [1] - The industry is expected to perform well in the third quarter, particularly during the summer peak season, supported by favorable policies and abundant supply [1]

Group 1: Tencent Holdings (00700) Analysis - Tencent achieved a revenue of 184.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 3% [2][14] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, also surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 2% [2][14] - The gaming segment showed strong performance, with international and domestic game revenues growing by 35% and 17% respectively in Q2 2025 [2][14] - Advertising revenue increased by 20% to 35.8 billion yuan, driven by AI enhancements that improved click-through rates [2][14] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 10% to 55.5 billion yuan, marking a return to double-digit growth [3][14] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with an adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 255.6 billion, 298 billion, and 336.8 billion yuan respectively [3][14] Group 2: Industry Trends and Insights - The wind power sector is experiencing a high growth period, with significant improvements in profitability reported by various companies [25] - The domestic wind power market is expected to see new installations reach 110 GW in 2025, with Q2 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 255.61% in new installations [25] - The market for non-road wide-body dump trucks is projected to grow significantly, driven by trends towards larger, electric, and unmanned vehicles [15][18] - The liquid cooling technology for data centers is gaining traction, with a projected market space of approximately 10 billion yuan due to increasing power density and cooling needs [28][26] - The semiconductor industry is seeing a shift towards special integrated circuits, with demand driven by national defense and commercial satellite applications [21][29]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais has raised the target price for Tencent Holdings (00700) from HKD 645 to HKD 710, maintaining a "highly confident outperform" rating based on robust growth in gaming and advertising, as well as the success of new games [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Tencent is expected to continue its solid growth in gaming and advertising into Q2 2025, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT projected to grow by 10.1% and 10.2% year-on-year, reaching RMB 177.3 billion and RMB 64.4 billion respectively [1] - Online gaming revenue is anticipated to rise due to strong performance from classic games, particularly "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile," along with new games like "Delta Force" and "Nikke" [1] Group 2: Advertising and Cloud Business - Tencent's advertising revenue is likely to benefit from upgrades in advertising technology, as well as growth in video accounts, mini-programs, and search business [1] - The cloud business revenue is expected to recover to double-digit growth driven by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais forecasts Tencent Holdings will continue its robust growth in gaming and advertising by Q2 2025, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT expected to grow by 10.1% and 10.2% year-on-year, reaching 177.3 billion and 64.4 billion respectively [1] Gaming Revenue - Online gaming revenue is anticipated to rise due to strong performance from classic games, particularly "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile," along with the success of new games like "Delta Force" and "Victory Goddess: Nikki" [1] - The mobile version of "Valorant" is expected to be released in August [1] Advertising Revenue - Tencent's advertising revenue is likely to benefit from upgrades in advertising technology, as well as growth in video accounts, mini-programs, and search business [1] Cloud Business - Revenue from the cloud business is projected to recover to double-digit growth due to strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) [1] Target Price Adjustment - Based on the solid growth in gaming and advertising, as well as the success of new games, the target price has been raised from 64.5 HKD to 71.0 HKD, maintaining a "highly confident outperform" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts a significant performance divergence in the Chinese internet sector for Q2, driven by pressures on platform-based businesses while AI and gaming segments continue to grow [2][3]. Industry Overview - The Chinese internet sector is expected to experience its first year-on-year profit decline since 2022, estimated at -10%, primarily due to the underperformance of e-commerce and local service platforms. However, excluding major platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo, the remaining sectors are projected to see an 11% profit growth [3]. Key Focus Areas - **AI-Driven Growth**: There is a notable increase in demand for AI-driven services, significantly boosting cloud computing revenues. Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to accelerate from 18% in Q1 to 23% in Q2, aligning with trends seen in major global competitors. Tencent's AI advertising and gaming sectors are also contributing positively to profitability [4]. - **Profitability Pressure on Transaction Platforms**: Major platforms such as Meituan, JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo are anticipated to face profitability challenges in Q2. Alibaba's adjusted EBIT is expected to decline by 16%, while Meituan and JD.com may see declines of 58-70%. This downturn is largely attributed to intense competition in the instant delivery sector, with a prolonged period of losses expected [5]. - **Stable Growth in Gaming and Mobility**: In contrast to the challenges faced by transaction platforms, the gaming and mobility sectors are showing healthy profit growth. Tencent's gaming division is performing particularly well, with titles like "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile" expected to generate significant annual revenues. Didi's ride-hailing services are projected to see an 11% increase in order volume, maintaining its market leadership [6][7]. Company-Specific Forecasts - **Tencent Holdings**: Expected Q2 revenue growth of 11% and adjusted EBIT growth of 15%. Gaming revenue is projected to increase by 15%, with advertising revenue up by 17%. Upcoming game launches are anticipated to drive further growth [8]. - **Alibaba**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 3% for FY2026, with adjusted EBIT expected to decline by 16%. Excluding certain factors, customer management revenue is projected to grow by 11%, and Alibaba Cloud's revenue is expected to rise by 23% [8]. - **Pinduoduo**: Expected Q2 revenue growth of 11%, but adjusted EBIT is forecasted to decline by 38%. The company is focusing on its international expansion strategy [8]. - **Meituan and JD.com**: Both companies are expected to experience significant impacts on their Q2 performance, with Meituan's revenue projected to grow by 16% but adjusted EBIT to decline by 58%. JD.com is also expected to see a 70% decline in overall EBIT [9].

Core Insights - ChinaJoy, known as the "Eastern E3," is a significant annual event for young people globally, celebrating its 22nd edition this year [1] - The event showcases the rapid growth of the Chinese gaming industry, evolving from a single gaming exhibition to a comprehensive digital interactive entertainment fair covering various sectors [3] Industry Overview - ChinaJoy features multiple thematic areas, attracting over 37 countries and regions, with foreign companies accounting for more than 30% of exhibitors [3] - The BTOB (business-to-business) section includes over 460 companies, occupying 25,000 square meters, while the BTOC (business-to-consumer) interactive entertainment area spans 110,000 square meters with over 280 exhibitors [3] Major Participants - Major domestic gaming companies such as Tencent, NetEase, and Century Huatong are prominently featured, showcasing multiple high-profile games [4] - Tencent presents 17 products occupying nearly half of its exhibition area, while Century Huatong has reduced its booth size to enhance player interaction [6][4] Interactive Experience - The event emphasizes immersive experiences, with various booths designed to facilitate deep player engagement rather than passive observation [6] - AI elements are prevalent, with companies like Baidu and Orange篇 showcasing AI-driven features that enhance user interaction and content creation [11][12] AI Integration - The integration of AI in gaming is a focal point, with companies exploring AI's potential to reshape the gaming landscape, enhancing both development efficiency and player experience [14] - AI technologies are being applied across the gaming industry, from automated translation to personalized player interactions, significantly improving operational efficiency [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve operating revenue of 178.3 billion RMB in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%, and an adjusted net profit of 60.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% increase [2] - The company continues to show healthy growth driven by new game releases and advancements in AI technology [8] - The report highlights the strong performance in gaming, advertising, and financial technology sectors, with specific growth rates projected for each segment [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: 609 billion RMB - 2024: 660.3 billion RMB - 2025E: 731.1 billion RMB - 2026E: 795.5 billion RMB - 2027E: 846.5 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9.8% for 2023, 8.4% for 2024, 10.7% for 2025, 8.8% for 2026, and 6.4% for 2027 [4] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 157.7 billion RMB - 2024: 222.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 250.7 billion RMB - 2026E: 281.3 billion RMB - 2027E: 309.3 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at 36.4% for 2023, 41.2% for 2024, 12.6% for 2025, 12.2% for 2026, and 10.0% for 2027 [4] Revenue Breakdown - The expected revenue breakdown for Q2 2025 includes: - Online gaming revenue growth of 14% year-on-year - Advertising revenue growth of 17% year-on-year - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue growth of 5% year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes the contribution of new game titles and AI enhancements to revenue growth [8] Valuation - The target price for Tencent is set at 673 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 35.5% from the current price [8] - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation method estimates the total market value of Tencent at approximately 561.73 billion RMB [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [40] Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 141.6 billion CNY over the past week, with a total net inflow of 6244.2 billion CNY year-to-date, representing 83.9% of the total net inflow for 2024 [1] - Major internet companies are currently valued at relatively low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with Meituan at 17, Tencent at 16, and Alibaba at 12 for the year 2025 [1] - The AI sector is witnessing significant advancements, with the launch of upgraded models and new applications, indicating a positive trend in commercializing AI technologies [1][19] Summary by Sections Southbound Funds - The report highlights a strong focus on Meituan, which received a net purchase of 56.75 billion CNY from southbound funds [1][35] - Other notable stocks with significant net purchases include BYD with 29.79 billion CNY and China Construction Bank with 22.05 billion CNY [35] AI Developments - The report discusses the advancements in AI, particularly the upgrade of the Doubao model to version 1.6, which shows significant improvements in reasoning and instruction-following capabilities [19] - The introduction of new models for video generation and podcasting further emphasizes the ongoing innovation in the AI sector [19] Online Music and IP Market - Tencent Music's acquisition of the online audio platform Ximalaya is expected to enhance its long audio content strategy [3] - The report notes the high demand for IP-related stocks, particularly in the collectible toy sector, with companies like Pop Mart and Blukoo being highlighted as key players [2] Automotive Sector - The report indicates a positive outlook for smart driving technologies, with Tesla's Robotaxi set to begin operations and domestic players like Li Auto and Xpeng reaching critical milestones [2] - The trend of equipping vehicles with laser radar is becoming standard among leading manufacturers, suggesting a robust future for companies like Hesai Technology and Horizon Robotics [2][12] Valuation Comparisons - The report provides a comparative analysis of major companies' market capitalizations and PE ratios, with Alibaba at 20374 million CNY and a PE of 12, while Tencent stands at 43340 million CNY with a PE of 16 [30] - The automotive companies Li Auto and Xpeng are noted for their low price-to-sales (PS) ratios, indicating potential undervaluation compared to their U.S. counterparts [32]