机构：中信建投证券 研究员：程似骐/陶亦然/胡天贶 核心观点 小鹏汽车是中国领先的智能电动汽车设计及制造商，也是全球AI定义汽车的先行者，即将迎来盈利拐 点。2025Q3 季度交付量创历史新高达11.6 万辆，同比大增149%，实现营收203.8 亿元。 伴随MONA M03、新款P7、超级增程X9 的陆续发布，公司开启强势产品周期，确立"纯电+增程"双能 战略，计划进一步抢占细分市场份额。同时，公司战略升级为面向全球的科技公司，围绕"物理AI"发布 的四项重要应用，包括小鹏第二代VLA、小鹏Robotaxi、全新一代IRON，以及汇天飞行体系，均将于 2026 年进入量产阶段。预计2025-2027 年收入约781、1169、1471 亿元，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 事件 1）11 月5 日，小鹏科技日在广州举行，主题为"涌现"，活动展示了小鹏在"物理AI"领域的最新成果， 包括第二代VLA 模型、Robotaxi、新一代人形机器人IRON 等。 2）11 月20 日，小鹏汽车超级增程X9 正式上市，起售价30.98万元。 2025Q3，公司季度交付量创历史新高达11.6 万辆，同比大增149%。截至20 ...

昨日收涨2.82%的小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)今日美股盘前续涨5.48%，报19.62美元。近日有消息称小鹏汽车 已在广州市获得L3级自动驾驶道路测试牌照，并启动常态化的L3道路测试。小鹏汽车副总裁"托马斯电 火车"在微博发文透露："期待明年第一季度的惊喜，全量上车。其实，部分人可以更早就正式体验这个 版本。"有机构指出，伴随MONA M03、新款P7、超级增程X9的陆续发布，公司开启强势产品周期，确 立"纯电+增程"双能战略，计划进一步抢占细分市场份额。同时，公司战略升级为面向全球的科技公 司，围绕"物理AI"发布的四项重要应用，包括小鹏第二代VLA、小鹏Robotaxi、全新一代IRON，以及 汇天飞行体系，均将于2026年进入量产阶段。 来源：视频滚动新闻 ...

有机构指出，伴随MONA M03、新款P7、超级增程X9的陆续发布，公司开启强势产品周期，确立"纯电 +增程"双能战略，计划进一步抢占细分市场份额。同时，公司战略升级为面向全球的科技公司，围 绕"物理AI"发布的四项重要应用，包括小鹏第二代VLA、小鹏Robotaxi、全新一代IRON，以及汇天飞 行体系，均将于2026年进入量产阶段。(格隆汇) 昨日收涨2.82%的小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)今日美股盘前续涨5.48%，报19.62美元。近日有消息称小鹏汽车 已在广州市获得L3级自动驾驶道路测试牌照，并启动常态化的L3道路测试。小鹏汽车副总裁"托马斯电 火车"在微博发文透露："期待明年第一季度的惊喜，全量上车。其实，部分人可以更早就正式体验这个 版本。" | XPEV 小鹏汽车 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 18.600 + +0.510 +2.82% | | 收盘价 12/18 16:00 美东 | | 19.620 + 1.020 +5.48% | | 盘前价 12/19 04:08 美东 | | 一 5 24 4 5 8 9 日 0 0 10 15 12 | | ● 快捷交易 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in urban areas reached 16% in September, with significant advancements in autonomous driving technologies from companies like Xiaopeng and others [1][16]. - The report highlights a continuous increase in the adoption of high-resolution cameras, with 800 million pixel cameras accounting for 46.7% of the market by September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28 percentage points [2]. - The market share of lidar technology is also on the rise, with a penetration rate of 12.2% for passenger vehicles by September 2025, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Xiaopeng launched its second-generation VLA, Robotaxi, and the new generation IRON, marking a significant step in the integration of AI in transportation [1][16]. - Other notable developments include the mass production plans for autonomous trucks by Xiaoma Zhixing and the acquisition of a pure unmanned license by WeRide in Switzerland [1]. High-Frequency Core Data Updates - The penetration rate of front-view cameras in passenger vehicles reached 67.8% by September 2025, with a notable increase in the adoption of 800 million pixel cameras [2]. - The share of Nvidia chips in the driving domain increased to 57.6%, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.9% [2]. Smart Driving - The penetration rate of passenger vehicles equipped with L2-level or higher functions reached 34.8% by September, with significant growth in both highway and urban NOA functionalities [3]. - The report indicates that the penetration rates for various sensors, including front-view cameras and lidar, have shown consistent growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Xiaopeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely for complete vehicles, while suggesting Xiaoma Zhixing and WeRide for L4 technologies [4]. - For components, it recommends companies like Hesai Technology for data acquisition and Horizon Robotics for data processing [4].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors positions itself as a "physical AI world explorer for global embodied intelligence," focusing on the integration of AI technologies in its automotive and robotics products [4][5]. Group 1: Key Applications Released - Xiaopeng Motors unveiled four significant applications at the 2025 Technology Day: the second-generation VLA, Robotaxi, the new generation of IRON, and two flight systems, all with clear mass production plans [4][5]. - The second-generation VLA (Vision-Language-Action) system integrates visual perception and language understanding, enhancing the efficiency and responsiveness of autonomous driving [6][9]. - The Robotaxi will launch three models in 2026, utilizing a pure vision approach without relying on LiDAR or high-definition maps, achieving a computing power of 3,000 TOPS [12][13]. - The new generation of IRON is designed as a highly humanoid robot with 82 degrees of freedom, capable of complex movements and interactions [17][20]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The second-generation VLA features a cloud-based model with 720 billion parameters, enabling rapid iteration and high processing power for complex tasks [9][10]. - The Robotaxi's dual-redundancy hardware architecture ensures safety, while its external interaction system enhances communication with pedestrians [13][16]. - The IRON robot employs a solid-state battery for improved safety and efficiency, alongside a proactive safety mechanism to protect users [21][23]. Group 3: Future Development Plans - Xiaopeng aims to achieve mass production of the IRON robot by the end of 2026, focusing on commercial applications in various sectors [23]. - The flight systems include the A868, designed for medium to long-distance travel, and the "land carrier," which has already received over 7,000 pre-orders [24][25]. - The company plans to collaborate with global partners to build a Robotaxi ecosystem, with Gaode as the first partner [16].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced slight gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.18% to close at 26,696.41 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 0.15% to 5,924.39 points [2] - A total of 53 stocks in the Hang Seng Index rose, while 31 declined, indicating a generally positive market sentiment [3] Group 2: Key Stock Performances - Xpeng Motors saw a significant increase of approximately 18%, closing at HKD 108.50 per share, with a total market capitalization of HKD 207.2 billion, surpassing competitors like Li Auto and NIO [8][11] - Other notable gainers included China National Pharmaceutical Group, which rose by 3.98%, and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, which increased by 3.88% due to expectations of a recovery in commercial real estate [3][4] Group 3: Real Estate Sector Insights - The Hong Kong real estate sector index rose by 1.39%, with J.P. Morgan expressing optimism about the industry [12][13] - Evergrande Group Holdings surged by 38.46%, while Japan's Jien and Yida China also saw significant gains of 29.82% and 19.61%, respectively [16][17] - J.P. Morgan noted that since the low in March 2025, Hong Kong residential prices have rebounded by over 4%, with expectations of an additional 5% increase by the end of 2026 [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, particularly emphasizing investment opportunities in AI and smart vehicles [1][3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from electric vehicle (EV) benefits to a focus on smart technology and robotics. Investment opportunities are identified in three main areas: AI smart vehicles, AI robotics, and traditional vehicle segments [3][54]. - Key developments include Tesla's $1 trillion compensation plan approval, aiming for significant production and delivery targets, and Xiaopeng's launch of new AI-driven products [2][3][62]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - This week, the automotive sector showed mixed performance, with commercial passenger vehicles leading with a +0.8% increase, while passenger cars saw a decline of -3.4% [2][7]. - The report highlights the best-performing stocks, including Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck [2][25]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on AI smart vehicles, with key players like Tesla, Xiaopeng, and various technology providers leading the charge. The report also identifies opportunities in the supply chain, including vehicle manufacturing and component suppliers [3][54]. - The expected growth in the domestic market is projected at 4.1% year-on-year for 2025, with total retail sales anticipated to reach 23.7 million units [50][57]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts a significant increase in the penetration of L3 and L2+ autonomous driving technologies by 2025, with expected market shares of 20% and 33% respectively for new energy vehicles [52][54]. - The report anticipates a continued recovery in the bus market and a 15% growth in domestic sales driven by policy support [57]. Key Companies and Developments - Notable companies mentioned include Tesla, Xiaopeng, and various suppliers like Top Group and Yanfeng Automotive. The report emphasizes the importance of these companies in the evolving landscape of smart vehicles and robotics [61][65]. - The report also highlights the recent IPOs of companies like Xiaopeng and WeRide, indicating a growing interest in the sector [62][65].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The automotive sector underperformed the market this week, with the A-share automotive sector declining by 1.24%, ranking 28th among A-share Shenwan first-level industries [3][11] - Key news includes Xiaopeng's launch of the second-generation VLA model and the announcement by Volkswagen of self-developed chips [21] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as BYD, Geely, Great Wall, and others in the passenger vehicle segment, while in the commercial vehicle segment, attention should be on companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck and FAW Liberation [3][21] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector lagged behind the market, with a decline of 1.24% this week [3][11] - The SW passenger vehicle index fell by 3.38%, with Haima Automobile and GAC Group leading the decline [3][6] - The SW commercial vehicle index decreased by 3.04%, with Weichai Power and *ST Yaxing leading the decline [3][6] - The SW automotive parts index saw a slight decline of 0.20%, with Quan Chai Power and Doli Technology leading the gains [3][6] 2. Industry News - Xiaopeng announced the launch of the second-generation VLA model and three other AI applications with clear mass production plans [21] - Volkswagen announced the development of self-designed chips in China [21] - Geely signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Renault to enhance collaboration in Brazil [21] - BYD plans to launch its luxury brand "Yangwang" in the Middle East next year, followed by expansion into Europe and America [21] - The termination of the U.S. federal electric vehicle subsidy led to a significant drop in October sales [21] - Porsche opened a research center in China to shorten development cycles from years to months [21] - China FAW signed cooperation memorandums with Volkswagen, Audi, and Toyota [21] 3. Key Data Tracking - The report includes tracking of key upstream data such as steel prices, aluminum ingot prices, and natural rubber prices [23][24][26] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring these prices as they impact the automotive supply chain and production costs [23][24][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that XPeng Motors (09868) has made significant advancements in the electric vehicle sector, showcasing new technologies and products during the recent XPeng Technology Day in Guangzhou [1] - The company has achieved its annual sales target for the year within the first ten months, indicating strong performance in the new energy vehicle market [1] - Breakthroughs in humanoid robots, Robotaxi, and low-altitude flying vehicles are expected to reach mass production by 2026, highlighting potential growth opportunities for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International highlights that XPeng Motors (09868) recently held its Technology Day in Guangzhou, showcasing significant advancements in physical AI and four key applications, including the second-generation VLA, Robotaxi, the new generation IRON, and two flight systems from Huitian [1] Group 1: Sales and Production Goals - The company has achieved its annual sales target in the new energy vehicle sector within the first ten months of this year [1] - Breakthrough production for humanoid robots, Robotaxi, and low-altitude aircraft is expected by 2026, indicating substantial future growth potential [1]