摩根士丹利宏观策略谈-全球市场多事之秋为何无需悲观 20251125 摘要 中国 AI 发展采取轻量化策略，侧重产业生态，利用基础设施、人才和数 据优势降低投资成本，与美国重资产豪赌 AGI 形成对比。中国市场情绪 受全球市场震荡影响相对较小。 美联储政策依赖数据，政府停摆导致 12 月降息预期落空，摩根士丹利 调整降息预期至 2026 年 1 月，但总体降息幅度未变，散户参与度提升 及量化交易比例增加，市场对此类预期变化反应强烈。 对 2026 年美股持乐观态度，基于普惠性和扩散性行情，大而美法案推 动资本开支向中小企业发展，企业层面 AI 应用初见成效，近 60%标普 500 公司三季度业绩超预期。 当前美股估值虽高，但明年标普 500 目标价 7,800 点并非基于市盈率上 升，而是预计盈利增长保持中位数以上水平，降息通道下估值不会明显 下调，盈利趋势正向，无需调整配置。 建议从大盘股转向中小盘股，超配消费品行业，当前市场估值水平低于 2000 年科技泡沫时期，自由现金流收益率更高，科技泡沫风险较低。 Q&A 中国在人工智能领域的投资路径与美国有何不同？ 中国和美国在人工智能领域的投资路径存在显著差异。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant strategic move by Alibaba and Ant Group in the AI sector, with the launch of two AI applications, "Lingguang" and "Qianwen," aimed at enhancing personal productivity and user engagement in the AI market [1][2][3] Group 1: Launch of AI Applications - On November 17, Alibaba launched the public beta of the "Qianwen" app, aiming to create a personal AI assistant that can chat and perform tasks, targeting the future of personal AI life [1][8] - The following day, Ant Group introduced "Lingguang," an AI assistant that allows users to generate applications in 30 seconds using natural language, marking a significant breakthrough in AGI application [2][5] Group 2: Performance and Features of "Lingguang" - "Lingguang" achieved impressive download milestones, surpassing 200,000 downloads on its first day and reaching over 1 million downloads within four days, outperforming early metrics of global AI products like ChatGPT [5][6] - The app features three core modules: "Lingguang Dialogue," "Lingguang Open Eye," and "Lingguang Flash Applications," enabling users to create interactive tools quickly and providing a visual interaction experience [6][7] Group 3: Strategic Positioning of "Qianwen" - The "Qianwen" app is positioned as a comprehensive AI assistant, directly competing with ChatGPT by integrating various life scenarios such as maps, food delivery, and shopping [8][17] - Alibaba's strategy reflects a shift from focusing on B2B to targeting ordinary users (C-end), aiming to convert technical advantages into a seamless user experience [12][13] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics - The competition in the AI application market is evolving from measuring daily active users to focusing on who can meet core user needs effectively [20][21] - The article notes that the AI market has shifted from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with Alibaba's dual strategy of "Qianwen + Lingguang" aiming to capture the C-end market and challenge established players like ByteDance and Tencent [25][26]

2025年的AI应用赛道，喧嚣正在退去。 市场不再为 "能聊什么"付费，转而关注"能做什么"。行业趋势已经明确，AI正从" 测评 秀 "转向"生产力"。通用对话 的 场景化生产力 已 成为新的焦 点。 11月， AI 两大行业事件密集落地。 17日，阿里正式发布 "千问" App 公测版，宣称用最先进的模型，打造"会聊天能办事的个人AI助手"，战略目标是打 造未来的AI生活入口。 18日，蚂蚁集团正式上线首个基于全代码生成的AI助手"灵光"，支持普通用户30秒生成应用，打造超级个体时代。 2025年的AI格局，已从"混战"走向"定型"。头部玩家的战略路径呈现清晰分化，不再是单一维度的竞争。 AI入口的战线，至少已分化为三个层面。 第一层，是流量的 "护城河" 。 典型代表是腾讯和字节跳动。它们的战略是利用 AI巩固C端流量优势。 蚂蚁 "灵光"是这个新战场的典型样本。 与追求泛化交互的产品不同， 它以 "解决具体任务"为核心 亮点，依托多模态能力将 AI效用落到实处 。用户不再 是为 "娱乐"或"信息"而来，而是带着"做预算"、"定计划"等明确需求。这种高意图的汇聚，意味着更精准的商业价值。 用户对 AI的期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Tencent's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, reflecting robust growth across major business segments, particularly in advertising and gaming driven by AI [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's management has attributed the reduction in capital expenditure to GPU supply chain constraints, but anticipates accelerated development of its AI platform with increased adoption of its capabilities [1] - Revenue forecasts for the next two years have been raised by 0.9% and 1.4% respectively, while non-IFRS operating profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards by 0.3% and 1.5% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts have been increased by 1.6% and 2.9% for the upcoming years [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley reaffirms Tencent as a preferred stock with an "Overweight" rating and sets a target price of HKD 735 [1]

Core Insights - Tencent reported Q3 revenue of 192.87 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 70.55 billion yuan (Non-IFRS), up 18% year-on-year [2] Capital Expenditure - Q3 capital expenditure was 12.98 billion yuan, showing a decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, but still at a high level [3] - The company plans to reduce overall capital expenditure in 2025 compared to previous guidance, but it will be higher than the actual expenditure in 2024 [3] - Tencent's President Liu Chiping stated that the company has sufficient GPU resources and does not see a significant competitive advantage in AI models beyond its own [3] AI Investments - Current spending related to AI includes R&D, with increasing investments in AI expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4] - AI's benefits are primarily reflected in revenue and gross profit at this stage [4] WeChat and AI Integration - Liu Chiping mentioned that WeChat has integrated various capabilities based on its AI model, enhancing user experience and interaction [5] - The ideal vision is to develop an AI assistant within WeChat to help users complete numerous tasks easily [5][6] - The development of this AI assistant is still in its early stages, with ongoing efforts to enhance search capabilities and user assistance [7] Collaboration with Apple - Tencent has reportedly reached an agreement with Apple regarding a 15% revenue share from payments made through WeChat mini-games and programs [8] - Liu Chiping emphasized a constructive attitude towards ongoing collaboration with Apple to promote a healthier mini-game ecosystem [8] International Gaming Business - Tencent's international gaming revenue grew by 43% year-on-year, surpassing 20 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 20.8 billion yuan [9] - The growth rate exceeded internal forecasts, attributed to new studio acquisitions and successful integration [9] - The company plans to continue collaborating with overseas game studios and aims to promote more Chinese-made games globally [9]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion RMB, a 15% year-over-year increase, with net profit attributable to equity holders reaching 63.1 billion RMB, up 19% [1] - The company aims to continue expanding its international gaming business and will seek acquisitions of overseas game studios while promoting self-developed games globally [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 192.9 billion RMB, a 15% increase year-over-year [1] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was 63.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to equity holders was 70.6 billion RMB, up 18% year-over-year [1] Gaming Business - The international gaming business has seen accelerated growth due to recent acquisitions and successful game launches, such as "Dying Light: The Beasts" [2] - Future growth in the international gaming segment is expected to slow down, aligning more closely with basic growth trends [2] Capital Expenditure - The company reported capital expenditures of approximately 51.3 billion RMB for the quarter, with cash payments of 20 billion RMB, indicating a timing difference in server-related expenses [3] - Capital expenditure for 2024 is projected to increase by 221%, accounting for 12% of revenue, while 2025's capital expenditure is expected to be lower than previous guidance but higher than 2024 [3] AI and Infrastructure - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities through the "Yuanbao" team and infrastructure upgrades, aiming to improve data preparation and model training [3][6] - The "Yuanbao" AI features have been integrated into WeChat, enhancing user experience and engagement [6][7] Advertising and Marketing - The automated advertising solution, AI Plus, is expected to improve ad performance and ROI for small and medium-sized advertisers [4][5] - Advertising revenue growth is anticipated to continue, driven by improved consumer spending and AI capabilities [8][14] Financial Technology and Cloud Business - The financial technology segment includes payment, wealth management, and credit services, with consumer credit growth expected to improve as consumer confidence rises [13] - Cloud business revenue has shown growth, with profitability achieved, although AI chip supply constraints may limit further expansion [13] Strategic Investments - The company is actively adjusting its investment portfolio, focusing on new growth opportunities in gaming and digital content, while also investing in promising AI startups [10]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings reported a strong performance in Q3, with revenue reaching RMB 192.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and operating profit (Non-IFRS) of RMB 72.57 billion, up 18% year-on-year, indicating stable growth momentum compared to Q2 [1][2][10]. Revenue Breakdown - Marketing services revenue grew by 21% year-on-year to RMB 36.24 billion, accounting for 19% of total revenue [2][5]. - The To B segment (financial technology and enterprise services) saw a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 58.17 billion, representing 30% of total revenue [2][4]. - The value-added services segment, primarily driven by gaming, reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 95.86 billion, making up 50% of total revenue [4][7]. Gaming Performance - Total revenue from online games reached RMB 63.6 billion, with international game revenue surpassing RMB 20.8 billion, a 43% year-on-year increase [6][7]. - Domestic game revenue was RMB 42.8 billion, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth, supported by new game releases and ongoing success of established titles [7]. AI and Technology Investments - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q3 was RMB 12.98 billion, down from RMB 17.09 billion in the same period last year, while R&D spending reached a record high of RMB 22.8 billion, up 28% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company emphasized that its GPU resources are sufficient, and it is focused on enhancing its AI model, "Mix Yuan," to improve performance and user engagement [9][12]. Future Outlook - Tencent's management expressed satisfaction with the current progress in AI and team development, indicating plans for further enhancements in infrastructure and talent acquisition [10][12].

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders was 63.1 billion RMB, up 19% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS profit attributable to equity holders reached 70.6 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 192.9 billion RMB, marking a 15% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders was 63.1 billion RMB, which is a 19% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS profit attributable to equity holders was 70.6 billion RMB, showing an 18% growth from the previous year [1] Game Business Insights - The international gaming business has seen accelerated growth due to recent acquisitions and the success of the game "Dying Light: Beast" [3] - Future growth in the international gaming segment is expected to slow down, aligning closer to the basic growth trend [3] - The company plans to continue acquiring game studios and promoting self-developed games in global markets [3] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for the quarter was approximately 51.3 billion RMB, with cash payments amounting to 20 billion RMB, indicating a timing difference in server-related expenses [4] - The company anticipates a 221% year-on-year increase in total capital expenditure for 2024, accounting for about 12% of revenue [4] - The updated guidance for 2025 indicates that capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue will be lower than previously expected, although the total amount will exceed that of 2024 [4] AI and Infrastructure Development - The company is actively recruiting top talent for its "Yuanbao" team and optimizing its infrastructure to enhance AI capabilities [4] - "Yuanbao" has been integrated into WeChat, providing various AI functionalities that enhance user experience and engagement [4] - The automated advertising solution AI Plus is expected to improve advertising effectiveness, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [5] Cost Management and Efficiency - The increase in sales, general, and administrative expenses, particularly in R&D, is linked to investments in AI [7] - AI investments are projected to enhance revenue and gross margin, with both metrics showing positive growth [7] - The company aims to leverage AI to create more value rather than solely focusing on cost reduction [7]

在11月13日举行的三季度财报电话会上，腾讯总裁刘炽平谈及混元团队时表示，腾讯实际上正在招聘更 多顶尖人才，尤其是在研究领域，以补充现有的工程团队。同时，腾讯也在从多个维度持续改进混元的 整体架构，如提升硬件和软件基础设施，以支持更好的数据准备、模型预训练，以及在不同知识领域开 展大规模强化学习。（蓝鲸新闻） ...

Core Insights - The release of Sora2 by OpenAI has introduced new dynamics in the AI sector, but it does not significantly outperform existing domestic video models from ByteDance, Kuaishou, and Alibaba [2] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Google launching Veo3.1 shortly after Sora2, indicating a potential for Google to surpass OpenAI due to its extensive infrastructure [2] - The AI hardware development path is uncertain, as companies like Alibaba and Google utilize their own AI chips, challenging the notion of a unified model dominated by OpenAI and Nvidia [3] Company Performance - New Yi Sheng reported a remarkable financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 10.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 282.64%, and net profit of 3.942 billion yuan, up 355.68% [5] - The company’s Q2 revenue was 6.385 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 57.5%, and net profit of 2.37 billion yuan, up 50.7% [7] - New Yi Sheng has transitioned from a traditional optical module supplier to a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure, capitalizing on the global AI computing investment boom [7][8] Market Trends - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to reach 19.9 million units globally by 2025, with the market for 1.6T modules halved to 1 million units [8] - The company has successfully launched 800G/1.6T optical module products, establishing a competitive advantage in the AI computing infrastructure sector [8] - The revenue from high-speed optical modules (over 4.25G) constitutes 98.91% of total revenue, indicating a strong focus on advanced technology [9] Client Composition - The top five clients account for 72.74% of accounts receivable, primarily consisting of major cloud players like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta [11] - ByteDance has emerged as the largest domestic client, with Alibaba expected to procure 5 million units of 800G optical modules by 2025, capturing a 25% market share [11][13] - The optimization of the client structure provides a more stable growth trajectory for the company, reducing reliance on a single market [13] Risks and Challenges - Inventory levels have increased by 43.86% to 5.944 billion yuan, with a significant rise in inventory impairment losses, indicating potential risks associated with rapid technological changes [14] - Accounts receivable have surged by 97.59% to 5.017 billion yuan, raising concerns about cash flow and potential bad debt risks [15] - The emergence of CPO technology poses a threat to traditional optical modules, with predictions suggesting it will dominate the market by 2027 [16][17]