证券研究报告 行业点评（R3）- 无重点股票 专用设备 特斯拉发布人形机器人年度报告，逐际动力推出具 身机器人 TRON 2 2026 年 01 月 06 日 评级 领先大市 评级变动： 调高 行业涨跌幅比较 相关报告 1 机器人行业点评：Figure 正式发布第三代人形 机器人，国内厂商持续推进机器人业务 2025-10-18 2 人形机器人行业深度报告（二）：机械传动核 心零部件，人形机器人推动精密丝杠市场扩容 2025-08-20 3 机器人行业点评：多家国内厂商获得机器人大 订单，产业化进程有望加速 2025-07-29 投资要点： 事件： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 % 1M 3M 12M 专用设备 10.13 7.64 61.60 沪深 300 4.50 3.23 26.90 -5% 15% 35% 55% 75% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 专用设备 沪深300 贺剑虹 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530524100001 hejianhong@hnchasing.com ①近日，特斯拉官方今日发布了一份名为《特斯拉人形机器人 2025 年度报告》的视频回顾， ...

北京时间1月4日，此前被认为在2025年底前交表的宇树科技，但截至12月31日都没有提交。 今天，新闻报道确认，宇树科技上市绿色通道被叫停，需要排队上市、走上市流程。 根据报道，有知情人士透露："监管认为，能够给机器人赛道降降温，因为泡沫太大了。" 但叫停宇树科技IPO，并不意味着是宇树科技本身的泡沫太大，根据王兴兴在2025年的夏季达沃斯上透露，在2024年，宇树科技的营收超过10亿，比2023 年的4.37亿明显增长。公司已经连续盈利。 泡沫，更多可能是来自A股的炒作！因为有三家机器人公司通过买下A股上市公司控制权的方式，被市场爆炒。 01 目前，A股的上纬新材、胜通能源、锋龙股份，分别被机器人赛道的公司智元机器人、七腾机器人和优必选买下了控股权。 上纬新材更是2025年全A股最靓的仔，上涨超过18倍。而在2025年最后一个交易日，刚刚出任上纬新材董事长的彭志辉，发布了上纬新材首个2C产品—— 上纬启元Q1.受到这个消息的影响，上纬新材盘中大涨超过11%，股价创下历史新高，收盘市值513.76亿。 "所谓上市【绿色通道】是一种旨在优化审核流程、缩短上市时间的机制，通过优先处理、简化程序等方式提升效率"。 ...

IT之家 12 月 26 日消息，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆・马斯克（Elon Musk）昨日（12 月 25 日）在其社交平台 X 重申，人工智能（AI）与机器人技术是实现全 民富裕的唯一途径。 他在回应一条回顾其过往言论的推文时，再次强调了 AI 和机器人技术对人类经济的决定性作用。面对视频中引用的观点，马斯克紧接着补充道："我正尽全 力让这一切成为现实。"IT之家附上相关截图如下： 这一技术路径最终指向了一个无需金钱的未来。马斯克此前曾预测，随着 AI 和机器人彻底消除资源稀缺性，货币在未来可能不再具备实际意义。 他在回应关于"孩子满 18 岁时金钱是否还有价值"的提问时表示："文明要么毁灭，要么由 AI 和机器人消除稀缺。"这意味着，当所有人类需求都能被自动化 系统满足后，传统的财富积累模式将发生质变。 基于上述逻辑，马斯克对未来的就业形态做出了大胆预测。在上个月的一次播客访谈中，他详细阐述了 AI 和机器人如何满足人类的所有需求。他预言，在 未来 20 年内，传统意义上的就业将变得过时，工作将不再是生存的必需品，而会转变为一种"可选项"，甚至仅仅像是一种业余爱好。 马斯克并非首次公开倡导这一理念。就在本月 ...

Group 1 - Tesla released a video report detailing the technological evolution of its humanoid robot, Optimus, over the past year, showcasing its rapid development from basic motion control to complex scene interaction [1] - By May 2025, Optimus demonstrated initial coordination abilities, mastering dance moves while learning to perform daily human tasks such as organizing clothes and handling trash, indicating its algorithm's potential for general task adaptation [1] - In September, Optimus's design became more streamlined, and it began practical service tests at Tesla Diner, successfully making popcorn and interacting with children, validating its safety in human-robot interaction environments [1] Group 2 - Elon Musk reiterated the company's research approach based on "first principles," emphasizing the three major challenges in humanoid robot manufacturing: creating dexterous hands, developing an AI brain that understands the real world, and achieving large-scale production capabilities [2] - Musk claimed that Tesla is currently the only company capable of addressing all three challenges simultaneously [2] - The video concluded with a vision of a "sustainable prosperous era" through the integration of AI and robotics, suggesting that the product has the potential to fundamentally eliminate poverty, with expectations for significant technological advancements in 2026 [2]

以下文章来源于APPSO ，作者发现明日产品的 APPSO . AI 第一新媒体，「超级个体」的灵感指南。 #AIGC #智能设备 #独特应用 #Generative AI 来源丨APPSO（ID： appsolution ） 人形机器人的尽头，可能是一个戴着 VR 头显的人类。 最近，特斯拉在迈阿密办了场名为「Autonomy Visualized（ 自主能力可视化 ）」的活动，一台特斯拉人形机器人 Optimus 机器人站在摆满水瓶的桌子 后面，正一本正经地给观众发水，看着像模像样。 然后，戏剧性的一幕出现了。 Optimus 突然把双手一抬，像极了人类快速摘下 VR 头显的姿势。紧接着，机器人就像突然断线了一样，踉踉跄跄往后倒，最后「啪叽」一声仰面躺地， 水瓶散落一地。 这个动作之所以引发热议，是因为它太有辨识度了——我们摘头显时确实会沿脸两侧一抹，而 Optimus 的动作轨迹几乎一模一样。 于是网友迅速得出一个合理又刺眼的推测：背后有人在远程操控。 大量网友把这个情节与《机械战警》《刀剑神域》等作品联系起来，嘲笑现实越来越像科幻片里机器人「拔线就挂」的桥段。 昨天，这段视频很快在海外各大社交平台疯传 ...

Core Insights - Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is seen as a revolutionary field that could enable paralyzed individuals to walk again, restore vision for the visually impaired, and treat various neurological diseases, offering hope to many patients [2][6] - Elon Musk predicts that within 20 years, Neuralink's technology could allow humans to create a "snapshot" of their minds and upload it to Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, potentially achieving a form of digital immortality [2] - The global BCI industry is rapidly developing, with major countries implementing policies to seize leadership in this emerging technology [3][6] Industry Development - The U.S. has introduced the "Neural Engineering System Design Program," Japan has launched the "Brain/Heart Function Utilization Technology Promotion Strategy," and the EU has initiated the "Human Brain Project" [3] - China is also prioritizing BCI development, with a national policy aiming for key technological breakthroughs by 2027 and the cultivation of 2-3 global leading companies by 2030 [6] - The BCI industry in China has established a comprehensive supply chain, with the medical field currently accounting for 56% of downstream applications [6][8] Clinical Progress - Clinical advancements are evident, with Shanghai Huashan Hospital completing its first BCI implantation surgery, and several products from Aipeng Medical already generating sales [8] - China has conducted 30 clinical trials for BCIs, surpassing Neuralink's 7 trials, indicating a competitive edge in clinical applications [8] Market Potential - The BCI technology is expected to create a trillion-dollar market, driving growth across materials, chips, and medical devices, and becoming a significant new productive force [8] - The global BCI market is projected to reach $7.63 billion by 2029, although predictions vary due to ethical and social acceptance challenges [9]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors aims to produce over 1 million humanoid robots annually by 2030, indicating a belief in a market potential that surpasses that of automobiles [1][2] - The company has gained significant market attention and stock price increases due to its ambitious plans for Robotaxi and humanoid robots, surpassing competitors like Li Auto and NIO in market capitalization [1][5] Group 1: Company Strategy and Vision - Xiaopeng Motors is recognized for setting ambitious goals, such as developing flying cars and humanoid robots, positioning itself as a leader in AI-driven automotive technology [2][6] - The company has established a strategic focus on AI, launching "Pengxing Intelligent" in 2020 and committing to an "AI-driven" strategy, with plans to transition from software-defined to AI-defined vehicles [2][3] - The second-generation VLA (Vision-Language-Action) model is positioned as a foundational technology for various applications, including Robotaxi and humanoid robots, aiming to create a cross-hardware ecosystem [11][18] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Xiaopeng Motors is seen as a direct competitor to Tesla, with a focus on innovative products like Robotaxi and humanoid robots, while also facing challenges from other automakers entering the robotics space [6][10] - Despite being in a loss-making position, Xiaopeng's market valuation has surpassed that of profitable competitors, highlighting the importance of narrative and vision in attracting investor interest [5][20] - The company faces competition not only from traditional automakers but also from established players in the robotics field, with at least 20 other car manufacturers announcing plans to develop humanoid robots [15][20] Group 3: Technological Challenges and Development - The humanoid robot IRON is set for mass production by the end of 2026, but its high cost (estimated around $30,000) may limit its competitiveness against cheaper alternatives [15][20] - The VLA model has undergone significant changes, with a shift to an end-to-end approach that aims to enhance its capabilities in understanding and interacting with the physical world [18][19] - The commercial viability of Robotaxi and humanoid robots remains uncertain, with challenges such as high costs, regulatory hurdles, and public safety concerns impacting the broader adoption of these technologies [20][21]

Investment Strategy Overview - The mechanical sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with a 32% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 14 percentage points [3][11] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes "value reversal" and "technology empowerment" as the main themes for 2026, focusing on original innovation and breakthroughs in key technologies [4] Emerging Industries - Robotics is expected to accelerate commercialization in 2026, with attention on Tesla's humanoid robot product iterations and changes in the domestic supply chain [5][27] - Unmanned logistics is gaining traction globally, driven by reduced labor costs and improved economic efficiency, positioning it as a key player in manufacturing upgrades [5][38] - The low-altitude economy is being supported by government initiatives, with a focus on logistics and emergency rescue applications [42][43] Economic Drivers - The PCB industry is experiencing increased demand for drilling equipment due to the expansion of AI PCB production [50] - The tool industry is seeing a cyclical price transmission, with a notable recovery expected in Q3 2025 [66] - The lithium battery sector is witnessing explosive growth in demand, with global shipments projected to reach 5,127 GWh by 2030 [69] - The gas turbine market is experiencing significant demand growth, driven by AI infrastructure expansion [79] Equipment Updates - The engineering machinery sector is seeing unexpected growth in excavator sales, with a 7.77% year-on-year increase in October 2025 [88] - The railway investment is entering a critical phase, with fixed asset investments expected to reach historical highs in 2025 [99] Key Companies - Notable companies in the robotics sector include Tesla, Huawei, and various startups like UBTECH and Figure AI, which are rapidly advancing their product offerings [30][31] - In the PCB equipment market, companies like Dazhu CNC and Ding Tai High-Tech are maintaining strong market positions with significant revenue growth [51][54] - The gas turbine supply chain includes major players like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Siemens Energy, with a focus on domestic component replacement [79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the automotive sector, anticipating a recovery in the market next year [1]. Core Insights - The automotive market is currently experiencing a downturn, with Q4 expectations falling short due to the impact of trade-in quotas. However, there is optimism for an upward revision in Q1 2026, suggesting that the sector may hit bottom sooner than expected. Despite the current sluggish trading environment, selective investment opportunities for next year are encouraged [1]. Data Tracking - In early November, the discount rate for vehicles increased to 10.0%, up by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The average discount amount rose by 23,103 yuan, with significant fluctuations noted among major brands [3]. - In October, new energy vehicle deliveries saw significant growth, with BYD delivering 442,000 units (down 12.1% year-on-year but up 11.5% month-on-month), while other brands like Leap Motor and Xpeng reported substantial year-on-year increases [3][21]. - Traditional automakers also showed strong sales, with Geely's sales increasing by 35.0% year-on-year to 307,000 units in October [3][24]. Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends investing in Geely and BYD, highlighting Geely's upcoming product cycle and potential for significant profit increases in the next 6-9 months. The report also suggests considering Jianghuai Automobile due to its strong product cycle and recent stock price corrections [5]. - In the automotive parts sector, the report identifies AI and intelligent driving as key areas for growth, recommending companies like Horizon Robotics and Sensetime Technology. It also highlights opportunities in liquid cooling and robotics, suggesting investments in companies like Minth Group and Top Group [5]. - The heavy truck segment is noted for its strong performance in recent months, with recommendations for companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [5]. Industry News - In October, new energy vehicles accounted for over 50% of total new car sales for the first time, with production and sales figures for the year showing over 10% growth [8][31]. - The report mentions the launch of new models, including the IM LS9, which features advanced technology and significant performance metrics [31]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set new requirements for new energy vehicle credit ratios for 2026 and 2027, indicating a regulatory push towards electric vehicles [31].

Core Insights - Elon Musk recently shared updates on advancements and long-term plans in artificial intelligence, space technology, and medical technology during an interview with investor Ron Baron, emphasizing a vision for technological innovation and human development [1][2] Group 1: Space Technology - Musk outlined an ambitious plan for space computing, aiming to launch 100 gigawatts of solar-powered AI satellites annually, which he believes will provide the lowest-cost energy solution for large-scale AI applications [1] - The scale of this energy supply is significant, considering the current average electricity load in the U.S. is approximately 460 gigawatts [1] Group 2: AI Development - Musk expressed high regard for TSMC and Samsung in the AI chip manufacturing sector, highlighting ongoing collaborations with both companies and the need for faster chip production and capacity enhancement [1] - He noted that the construction of new wafer fabs takes about five years from initiation to production, which he considers a long time given the rapid pace of technological iteration [1] - Musk claimed that Grok-4-Heavy is currently the smartest AI model, utilizing a "multi-agent parallel collaboration" approach for improved output and continuous enhancement [1] Group 3: Robotics and Healthcare - The Tesla humanoid robot, Optimus, is projected to have significant potential in the medical field, capable of performing complex surgeries with "superhuman precision" [1] - Musk indicated that the scarcity of quality medical resources limits accessibility, and robots could help scale manufacturing to improve healthcare service coverage and eliminate poverty [1] Group 4: Neuralink Progress - Neuralink has implanted brain-machine interface devices in over 10 patients, some of whom were previously unable to move their limbs and are now able to communicate at nearly normal speeds [2] - The project is accelerating, showcasing advancements in brain-computer interface technology [2] Group 5: Personal Wealth Philosophy - Musk clarified that his motivation is not wealth or luxury but rather to maintain sufficient influence to guide his companies forward, focusing on technological innovation and long-term development [2] - He revealed a modest personal lifestyle, owning only a medium-sized home in Austin and a small house at Starbase, without any vacation properties [2] Group 6: Vision for the Future - Musk envisions a future where AI and robotics will fully meet human needs, allowing everyone to benefit from technological advancements [2] - His long-term goals include expanding human consciousness and exploring other star systems, akin to the themes in "Star Trek," while seeking a deeper understanding of the universe [2]