以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 明年还有 M9 改款和新车 M9L，问界将从市场上、下两端扩展。 文 丨 曾兴 编辑 丨 龚方毅 我们获悉，问界 M6 计划于明年二季度上市，预计将主打 25 万元家用 SUV 市场。动力形式与 问界其他车型一致，将同时提供增程版和纯电版。一位接近赛力斯的人士表示，"问界 M6 不会 取代问界 M5，未来问界 M5 仍会继续迭代。" 今年 4 月改款的新车上市后，问界 M9 月销量连续过万，但并未超过去年同期，10 月销量回落至 8000 辆，同比减半。而从今年 5 月以来，问界 M9 的销量持续环比下滑。有投资人认为，"豪华车市 场增量空间有限，尊界 S800、极氪 9X 等都分走部分销量。" 而在 20 万元至 30 万元区间，问界的表现相对平淡。这一价格带是竞争最为激烈的细分市场之一，据 懂车帝数据，近三个月内有 18 款中大型 SUV 上市。除了新能源车扎堆，曾经主导这一市场的合资车 型、降价下沉的 30 万元级的传统燃油 SUV，都在加剧竞争。 问界 M7 曾是这一价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new market structure in the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) sector, highlighting the shift from the previously dominant "Wei Xiaoli" (Weilai, Xiaopeng, Li Auto) to a new group termed "BIG 6+1," which includes Tesla, Li Auto, Hongmeng Zhixing, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, NIO, and Zero Run. This shift indicates a significant change in market dynamics as these companies collectively approach or surpass the sales of leading brand BYD, marking the beginning of a new competitive phase in the EV market [4][18]. Market Dynamics - By August 2025, the total insurance registrations of the seven new force car companies approached or briefly exceeded that of BYD, indicating a potential shift in market leadership [4][6]. - The "BIG 6+1" collectively accounted for a market share of approximately 15.25% in August 2025, with BYD holding a share of 13.97% [17]. Definition of New Forces - The term "new forces" in the automotive industry lacks a precise definition, but a simple distinction can be made based on whether a company has the qualification to produce fuel vehicles. Companies without this qualification can only produce pure electric or extended-range products [5][6]. Sales Rankings - In the August 2025 sales rankings, the top seven new force companies were Tesla (57,152 units, 2.81%), Zero Run (51,162 units, 2.52%), Hongmeng Zhixing (40,012 units, 1.97%), Xiaomi (36,396 units, 1.79%), Xiaopeng (34,691 units, 1.71%), NIO (16,434 units, 0.81%), and Li Auto (28,529 units, 1.40%) [6][7]. Product Offerings - The "BIG 6+1" companies have a limited number of main models, with most brands offering around seven models. Tesla, while having many variants, primarily sells three main models [9][8]. - The average selling prices of the brands vary, with Tesla at 29.67 million yuan, Li Auto at 34.90 million yuan, and Zero Run at 12.98 million yuan, indicating a diverse pricing strategy among the new forces [13][15]. Distribution Channels - The distribution network of "BIG 6+1" varies, with Zero Run and Hongmeng Zhixing having the most stores (around 942 and approximately 1,000 respectively), while Tesla and Xiaomi have around 300-400 stores [11][12]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that as the "BIG 6+1" solidifies its market position, it will significantly impact the overall EV market, potentially leading to a new phase of competition and market consolidation [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The launch of the Li i6 at a price of 249,800 yuan, with promotional benefits during the initial sales period, is expected to enhance the company's position in the home electric vehicle market [4][7]. - The i6's pricing and features are competitive compared to similar models like Xiaomi YU7 and Tesla Model Y, potentially opening new growth opportunities in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan segment [7][9]. - Anticipation for the upcoming upgrades to the L series, which is currently under pressure, is noted, with expectations for improved product competitiveness [7][8]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5 billion, 9.5 billion, and 13.4 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 123.85 billion yuan in 2023, 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, 127.79 billion yuan in 2025, 175.77 billion yuan in 2026, and 212.56 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-over-year growth rate of 173.5% in 2023 and a decline of 11.5% in 2025 [6][11]. - Net profit estimates are 11.7 billion yuan for 2023, 8.03 billion yuan for 2024, 4.99 billion yuan for 2025, 9.5 billion yuan for 2026, and 13.37 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a significant increase in 2023 but a decline in the following years [6][11]. - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 20% to 22% over the forecast period [6][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 6.6% in 2025 before recovering to 13.5% by 2027 [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2025, supporting upward consumption trends. The industry is also experiencing a structural shift towards high-end and intelligent upgrades, which presents investment opportunities [18] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Chery Automobile has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HKD 9.14 billion with a record oversubscription of 238 times. The company's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 92.618 billion in 2022 to CNY 269.899 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7% [5][13] - The Ideal i6 was launched at a price of CNY 249,800, featuring advanced technology and performance specifications [14] - The Shangjie H5 was launched with a starting price of CNY 159,800, offering both electric and range-extended versions [15] - The all-new Wanjie M7 was launched with a price range of CNY 279,800 to CNY 379,800, providing multiple powertrain options [17] Market Performance - From September 22 to September 26, the automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index remaining flat while the overall index rose by 0.2% [19] - The automotive sector's weekly trading volume decreased, indicating a potential decline in investor interest [19] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies poised to benefit from the industry's transition to high-end and intelligent vehicles, including Ideal Auto, Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [18] - The report also identifies opportunities in high-level intelligent driving technologies, recommending companies like XPeng Motors and Huayang Group [18] - In the commercial vehicle sector, it anticipates a recovery in heavy truck demand in 2025, recommending leading companies such as Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [18] Key Company and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several key companies, indicating a bullish outlook for firms like Yiyuan Co., Baolong Technology, and Xinyu Co. [8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on companies with strong product launches and competitive advantages in the market [4][29]. Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing a recovery with significant sales growth in new energy vehicles, which accounted for 58.46% of total retail sales in the week of September 15-21, 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 30.15% [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, as key drivers for market sentiment and investment opportunities [4][29]. - Companies like Li Auto, NIO, and BYD are recommended for their strong product offerings and market positioning [4][29]. Market Situation Update - The total transaction value in the automotive industry for the week was 851.59 billion, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7.71% [4][17]. - The automotive industry index remained stable at 8106.63 points, with no change over the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.07% [4][17]. - The report notes that 122 stocks in the automotive sector rose, while 168 fell, indicating a mixed performance among individual companies [4][21]. Key Events - Li Auto launched the new five-seat electric SUV, the Li i6, with a starting price of 249,800 yuan, which is expected to attract younger consumers [7][49]. - The AITO M7 began nationwide deliveries, showcasing strong market demand with over 230,000 pre-orders [11][39]. - The launch of the Shangjie H5, priced between 159,800 and 199,800 yuan, aims to capture the mainstream SUV market with advanced features [14][38]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is addressing the issue of "0 km used cars" to curb fraudulent sales practices, reflecting a commitment to improving industry integrity [5][6]. - The report mentions the establishment of a joint venture between Li Auto and Xinwangda for battery production, indicating strategic moves towards vertical integration in the supply chain [31][32]. - The report also highlights the introduction of export license management for pure electric passenger vehicles starting in 2026, which may impact market dynamics [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the automotive industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in high-quality component manufacturers and strong vehicle manufacturers [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that technological advancements are igniting market sentiment, and there is a strong interest in high-quality component manufacturers as well as new vehicle models that are expected to capture orders during the upcoming holiday season [4]. - The report notes that the automotive industry is facing challenges due to insufficient national subsidies, which may pressure future sales [4]. - The report provides an update on the automotive market, indicating that retail sales of passenger cars reached 508,000 units in the 38th week of 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 12.89% and a year-on-year increase of 10.29% [2]. Market Situation Update - The total transaction value of the automotive industry for the week was 851.59 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7.71% [4]. - The automotive industry index closed at 8106.63 points, with no change over the week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.07% [4][19]. - The report highlights that 122 stocks in the automotive sector rose while 168 fell, with the largest gainers being Xincidian, Kebo Da, and Tiangong Co., which increased by 25.0%, 22.6%, and 21.0% respectively [23]. Key Events - The report discusses significant events such as the launch of the new electric SUV i6 by Li Auto, which is priced starting at 249,800 yuan and features advanced driving assistance systems [7][52]. - The report mentions the delivery commencement of the new AITO M7, which has a monthly production capacity of over 30,000 units and has received strong market demand with over 230,000 pre-orders [11][12]. - The report also highlights the launch of the Shangjie H5, which targets the mainstream market with a price range of 159,800 to 199,800 yuan and features advanced driving assistance technology [14][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers with strong performance and overseas expansion capabilities [4]. - It suggests monitoring companies involved in the integration of state-owned enterprises, such as SAIC Motor and Dongfeng Motor [4]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in component manufacturers like Fuyao Glass, New Spring, and others that have strong growth prospects and are involved in robotics [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, particularly focusing on quality domestic brands and emerging technologies [5]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by smart electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies, with a recommendation to focus on key players such as BYD, Geely, Xpeng, and others [10][11]. - The report highlights the importance of the T-chain in the robotics sector, particularly with Tesla's upcoming Optimus V3, which is expected to significantly impact the market [12][16]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the liquid cooling market, driven by the increasing demand for high-performance computing and AI technologies [20][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Overview - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.2% in the A-share automotive sector from September 22 to September 26, ranking 19th among sub-industries [32]. - Passenger car sales for the third week of September 2025 reached 516,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a month-on-month increase of 12.6% [44]. Passenger Vehicles - The report suggests that the continuation of vehicle replacement policies will stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on quality domestic brands like Geely, Xpeng, and BYD [13]. - The introduction of new models, such as the AITO M7 and Li Auto i6, is expected to drive sales growth in the high-end market segment [11][14]. Robotics - The report identifies the T-chain as a core focus area, with significant developments expected from Tesla's Optimus V3, which aims to produce hundreds of prototypes by the end of 2025 [12][16]. - The report also notes the acceleration of the domestic robotics sector's IPO processes, which could serve as a catalyst for market sentiment [19]. Liquid Cooling - The global liquid cooling market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 27.6% from 2024 to 2030, driven by the demand for high-performance computing [20]. - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for data centers, especially as AI computing power increases [22]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the mid to large displacement segments, with sales of 250cc and above motorcycles reaching 84,000 units in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [23][24]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the mid to large displacement motorcycle segment, such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [24]. Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is seeing a resurgence in demand, with sales of 92,000 units in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46.6% [26]. - The expansion of vehicle replacement subsidies is expected to further stimulate demand in the heavy truck sector [27]. Tires - The tire industry is benefiting from strong domestic and international demand, with leading companies expected to continue expanding their global presence [28][30]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and product optimization in maintaining competitiveness in the tire market [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced a slight overall increase of 0.1% during the week from September 21 to September 27, with notable events including Chery Automobile's successful IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opening at HKD 34.20, which is 11% higher than its IPO price of HKD 30.75 [1][26]. - Several new models were launched ahead of the National Day holiday, including the Shangjie H5, which saw over 10,000 pre-orders within the first hour of its release, and the Li Auto i6, priced at CNY 24.98 million with promotional discounts [1][26]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was mixed, with the overall market showing a slight increase. The Shanghai A-share index rose by 0.2%, while the Shenzhen A-share index fell by 0.1% [2][10]. - Within the automotive industry, the motorcycle and other segments showed the most significant increase of 5.0%, while the automotive services and commercial vehicle sectors experienced declines of 5.5% and 2.6%, respectively [2][13]. Individual Stock Performance - Among individual stocks, notable gainers included Xinzhibiao (+25.0%), Kebo Da (+22.6%), and Tiangong Co. (+21.0%). Conversely, significant decliners included Zhongma Transmission (-15.2%), Shanghai Wumao (-14.0%), and Mingxin Xuteng (-13.7%) [3][20][18]. Recent Industry Developments - Key developments included the announcement of a 25% tariff on heavy trucks by the U.S. government, effective October 1, aimed at protecting domestic manufacturers [9][26]. - The report highlights the successful launch of several new models, including the Tengshi N8L SUV, which is positioned as a luxury family vehicle with a starting price of CNY 31.98 million [27][30]. - The report also notes the strategic partnerships and technological advancements in the industry, such as the collaboration between Xpeng Motors and Alibaba Cloud for quantum security technology [29][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile. It also suggests monitoring key partners of Huawei, including BAIC Blue Valley, Changan Automobile, and SAIC Motor [9][26].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Li Auto i6 has generated strong order performance, with over 20,000 pre-orders received shortly after its release, indicating a positive market reception for the vehicle's pricing and features [3][5]. Group 1: Product Features and Pricing - The Li Auto i6 is positioned as a mid-large five-seat SUV, built on an 800V high-voltage platform, offering both single-motor rear-wheel drive and dual-motor all-wheel drive options [5]. - The vehicle is equipped with an 87.3 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery, providing a pure electric range of 660 km and 720 km under CLTC conditions for the respective configurations [5]. - The official base price for the i6 is set at 249,800 yuan, slightly lower than the previously anticipated range of 250,000 to 300,000 yuan [5]. - The i6 includes features that enhance its competitiveness, such as a rear entertainment screen, air suspension, and electric doors, which are not available in lower-priced models [5]. Group 2: Market Response and Sales Performance - The i6's order model, which allows for a cooling-off period, has been positively received, with comparisons drawn to similar strategies used by other manufacturers like Xiaomi [6]. - Sales personnel reported high customer traffic and order volumes, with some stores experiencing significant demand that exceeded expectations [6][7]. - The company prepared for the high interest by ensuring that display vehicles were available at dealerships prior to the launch, facilitating immediate test drives after the release event [7].

Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.71% this week, with the overall asset allocation order being stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [1][2][4]. Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.71%, while the Shanghai Composite Index futures rose by 2.93%. Futures for coking coal and iron ore also saw gains of 1.31% and 2.27%, respectively. The annualized yield for Yu'ebao decreased by 9 basis points to 1.06%, and the yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 6 basis points to 1.84% [2][13][39]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests that incremental policies in the fourth quarter are still worth anticipating. The mining and raw materials manufacturing sectors have negatively impacted the year-on-year profit growth of industrial enterprises from January to July. Traditional equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing continue to provide support, while upstream industries remain a significant shortfall in profitability. Price factors are currently the main drag on the profitability of industrial enterprises, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) for production materials showing an expanding year-on-year decline [3][4]. Key Insights on Specific Industries - The report highlights that the high-tech manufacturing sector's profits turned from a decline of 0.9% in June to a growth of 18.9% in July, significantly contributing to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [24]. - The automotive industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in sales due to the "stabilizing real estate" policy effects, with a slight rebound in the transaction area of commercial housing in major cities [36][39]. - The report notes that the artificial intelligence sector is set for significant growth, with the government aiming for a 70% penetration rate of new intelligent terminals and agents by 2027, and over 90% by 2030 [6][22]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the stock market saw most indices rise, with the ChiNext Index leading at a 7.74% increase. The telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronic components sectors were among the top performers, while coal, textiles, and banking sectors faced declines [39][40]. - The bond market remained stable, with the ten-year government bond yield rising to 1.84% and the ten-year policy bank bond yield at 1.88% [45][46]. Conclusion - Overall, the report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy implementation and market dynamics across various sectors, particularly in high-tech manufacturing and artificial intelligence, as well as the anticipated recovery in the automotive and real estate markets [3][6][39].