2025 年 06 月 23 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 以旧换新"国补"将[Ta持ble续_T ， itle]理想汽车完成 2500 座 5C 超充站建设以及 i6 工信部产品公告 ——汽车行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/06/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | | -6.8% | -10.8% | 24.3% | | 沪深 | 300 | -1.3% | -3.2% | 9.8% | 相关报告 《汽车行业周报：多家车企发布"60 天账期宣言"， 特斯拉暂定 6 月 22 日正式运营 Robotaxi（推荐）* 汽车*戴畅》——2025-06-15 《汽车行业周报：兵器装备集团汽车业务将成为独 立央企，小米集团举办 2025 投资者日（推荐）* 汽车*戴畅》——2025-06-09 《汽车行业专题报告：Robotaxi 景气度加速上行， 商业化拐点渐近（推荐）*汽车*胡惠民，戴畅》— — ...

理想汽车 20250622 摘要 理想汽车 I6 定位五座中大型纯电 SUV，采用 800V 架构和 5C 磷酸铁锂 电池，充电 10 分钟续航 500 公里，提供后驱和四驱版本，在空间、动 力和充电效率方面具有竞争力，或将影响消费者对纯电 SUV 的偏好。 截至 2025 年 6 月，理想汽车自建超充站超过 2,500 座，计划年底达到 4,000 座，显著提升了纯电产品竞争力，解决了早期电动车充电不便的 痛点，巩固了市场地位，并可能推动纯电车型销量增长。 理想汽车新品发布节奏加快，I8 定档及 I6 信息公布预示着新一轮造势周 期，有望增强消费者信心，提高市场关注度，从被动等待转向主动宣发， 有助于提升品牌影响力和市场表现，或将刺激股票市场。 理想汽车的投资逻辑基于两阶段机会：销量预期上调改变市场判断，以 及规模效应提升单车盈利。目前处于第一阶段初期，新车型和技术创新 可能带来销量预期上调，使其在下半年整车厂中最具投资潜力，值得关 注。 市场对高端纯电动汽车的观望态度正在转变，随着电车置换购需求释放， 以及理想 I 系列产品在 30-40 万价格区间内竞争优势明显，预计高端纯 电动汽车需求将大幅增长，或将 ...

2025 年 06 月 22 日 理想 i6 打开新市场，Yu7 上市在 即关注小米链 看好 ——2025/6/16-2025/6/20 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 (8621)23297818× zhufz@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：理想 i6 正式上工信部目录，这是台大 5 座纯电 SUV，长宽高分别为 4950/1935/1655mm，轴距为 3000mm。也是理想首次推出的单电机产品，有望进一 步给出更有竞争力的价格，看好其大幅挑战传统 BBA 的 30 万元区间市场（24 年销量 约 40 万台）。同时小米 Yu7 定档 6/26 发布上市，此前留资量是同期 Su7 的 3 倍，预 计会有众多新功能和"人车家"的概念落地， ...

理想汽车 20250615 摘要 理想汽车短期聚焦 20 万以上 SUV 和 MPV 市场，通过增程和纯电产品 线扩张销量，保守销量预期 75 万辆，对应利润约 150 亿，市盈率 20 倍，显示出稳健的增长潜力。 理想汽车致力于成为消费电子领域的苹果或游戏领域的任天堂，通过 AI、自驾技术、大模型和智能语音助手等技术投入，打造独特创意和极 致体验，实现"创造移动的家、创造幸福的家"的使命。 2019 年至 2024 年，20 万元以上汽车市场快速扩容，年复合增速近 11%，达到 680 万辆规模（含进口车），理想汽车等新势力品牌贡献了 显著的销量增量。 20 万元以上 SUV 市场规模接近 400 万辆（含进口车），市占率从 2019 年的 50%增长到 2024 年的 60%，主要受益于家庭出行需求和二 三胎家庭数量增加。 理想汽车在 20 万元以上 SUV 市场中市占率已达 13%，位居第一，销量 天花板预计为 75 至 107 万辆，中性估计约 100 万辆，显示出强大的市 场竞争力。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）理想汽车的核心竞争力分析及目标市值预估是什么？ 根据东吴证券的分析，理想汽车在智能化趋势 ...

Summary of Li Auto's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid models Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - As of April 2025, Li Auto achieved a market share of **14.1%**, maintaining its position as the top-selling Chinese automotive brand for **14 consecutive months** in the **20万元** and above new energy vehicle market [2][3] - Cumulative deliveries exceeded **1.26 million units**, with the Li L series reaching a milestone of **1 million units** delivered by April 2025 [3] Product Development and Launch Plans - Li Auto plans to launch two new pure electric SUV models: **I8** in July 2025 and **I6** in September 2025 [2][4] - The company has introduced the **Mega** and **L series** with upgraded chips and laser radar to enhance driving assistance features [2][4] - The **ALMAC 4G** model, developed in-house, aims to improve the perception and adaptability of the driving assistance system [2][6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached **259 billion RMB**, with a stable gross margin of approximately **20%** [2][7] - GAAP net profit was **6 billion RMB**, while non-GAAP net profit stood at **10 billion RMB** [2][7] - Cash reserves exceeded **100 billion RMB**, providing a solid foundation for future growth [2][7] Gross Margin and Future Expectations - The gross margin showed a slight increase, influenced by financial information, despite a **3,000 RMB** drop in average selling price (ASP) [8] - The company expects steady growth in gross margin in the upcoming quarters [8] Charging Network Expansion - Li Auto has opened **2,350** supercharging stations with over **12,280** charging piles, aiming for **2,500** stations before the I8 launch and **4,000** by year-end [4][10] Research and Development (R&D) Budget - The R&D budget for 2025 is estimated between **11 billion to 12 billion RMB**, with approximately **4.5 billion RMB** allocated for AI-related research [4][12] - The company emphasizes collaboration with partners to enhance R&D efficiency and share results [19] Sales Strategy in Lower-Tier Cities - Li Auto is expanding its sales network and optimizing store layouts in lower-tier cities to boost sales [13][14] - The company has launched the **Star Plan** to improve service quality and customer satisfaction [13] International Market Strategy - Li Auto's international strategy is a long-term plan, focusing on understanding local user needs and building brand recognition over the next ten years [18] Product Strategy and Market Trends - The company is adapting to trends in the electric vehicle market, particularly in the extended-range electric vehicle segment, which is expected to see increased battery capacity [16] - Li Auto plans to expand its product offerings to include sedans and MPVs based on user demand [17] AI and Talent Management - Li Auto is focusing on AI advancements and talent acquisition in areas like virtual reality management [20] - The company aims to create a platform for personal value realization rather than relying solely on high salaries to retain talent [20] Additional Important Insights - The company is cautious about increasing R&D spending significantly, preferring to collaborate with partners to mitigate risks [19] - Li Auto's strategy includes a balanced approach to product offerings in the **20万元** and above market, with expectations of equal market share between extended-range and pure electric vehicles in the long term [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new product cycle for pure electric vehicles in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of advanced intelligent driving features [3] - The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, is set to be released in July, followed by another new model, the i6, in September [3] - The company has established 2,355 supercharging stations as of May 29, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025 [3] - The L series of vehicles will feature significant upgrades, including the new 2025 models equipped with advanced AI and hardware for intelligent driving [3] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8% respectively [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8% respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected at 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a pure electric product cycle in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of high-level intelligent driving features. The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, will be launched in July, followed by a new model, the i6, in September. As of May 29, 2025, the company has built 2,355 supercharging stations, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025. The L series of vehicles will feature upgraded configurations and advanced driving capabilities, with the AD Max system utilizing the NVIDIA Thor-U chip and new laser radar technology [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8%. The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8%. The corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 times [4][12]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 25.93 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.4%. The gross margin for Q1 was 20.5%, slightly better than expected, with vehicle sales gross margin at 19.8%. The company reported a net profit of 650 million RMB for the same quarter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease of 81.5% [11].

李想已将 AI 升格为公司一号工程，但至少在今天，他仍在以汽车产品为本。 文 丨 赵宇 编辑 丨 龚方毅 最近两场业绩会，理想汽车董事长兼 CEO 李想变回人们原来熟悉的样子：谈论怎么做车、做什么 车。 本月，理想完成了 L 系列的年度改款车型上市。从 4 月的上海车展预热开始，到改款上市后，理想周 度交付量总体保持稳定。一位完整观察了去年理想 L 系列改款过程的投资人告诉我们，理想今年的改 款称得上 "丝滑" 。 理想当季车辆毛利率仍保持在 19.8%，同比提高 0.5 个百分点，高于管理层年初给的指引。当时理想 汽车 CFO 李铁预警 "一季度本就是淡季，适逢春节（放假导致订单量和交付量偏低），春节后又有促 销活动，所有因素叠加在一起，预计车辆毛利率在 19% 左右。" 此前，我们从两个独立信源处获悉，理想不久前重启了轿车研发的讨论，首款车型极可能与增程式 SUV 理想 L6 一样，归属于理想第三产品线。但消息人士也对我们说，定价、能源形式还不能确定， 是否启动研发也未完全确定。 理想上次暂停轿车研发是在 2023 年下半年，一位接近理想的人士告诉我们，当时理想暂停轿车研发 的理由主要有两个：中国市场售价 ...