策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 13 日 策略点评 国产算力产业链贯通，行情催化在即 国产算力产业链"产业突破-业绩验证-需求验证"逻辑链条已逐步打通，产业 链行情正在迎来催化。 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 ◼ 国产算力产业链"产业突破-业绩验证-需求验证"逻辑链条已逐步打通，产 业端，沐曦集成、摩尔线程两大国产 GPU 厂商科创板 IPO 获受理，填补 A 股全功能 GPU 空白，华为算力集群性能媲美英伟达，产业链重点公司 业绩来看，工业富联中报业绩创历史同期新高，需求端，国产大模型 Tokens 消耗量高速增长。国产 GPU 上市潮、硬件厂商业绩兑现与 AI 大 模型需求增长形成共振，国产算力产业从技术研发、商业落地到需求支撑 已进入高速增长周期，全产业链自主化进程提速，国产算力行情亦有望受 到催化，建议关注国产算力芯片、服务器、PCB、光通信厂商等。 ◼ 风险提示：1）政策落地不及预期，宏观经济波动超预期。2）市场波动风 险。3）海外经济超预期衰退、流动性风险。 策略点评 国产算力产业链"产业 ...

题图来源：视觉中国 2023年9月21日晚，华为公司创始人任正非与南开大学新闻与传播学院院长、科技日报原总编辑刘亚东今年7月7日在深圳一间咖啡厅的对话最新曝光。 在对话过程中，任正非以"拉法尔喷管"来描述华为的研发体系: "喇叭口"吸收宇宙能量，经过理论研究，成熟的研究成果及人员经过拉法尔喷管快速在产 品端扩张，快速完成领先世界的产品。 任正非提到，跟大学的合作、基础研究部分，华为从来不考虑回报，到下面产品线时才有考核要求。而华为的产品如果不够先进，就不会拿出来卖。因 为"卖不了高价，也养不活队伍"。 任正非举例称，华为的AI集群已支持16000板卡，将来的一个超节点集群可管理几十万板卡，可支持超高速互联、超高效的液冷散热、瞬时爆发式供电， 达到系统高可用，这些都不弱于美国。他还在对话中披露了鸿蒙生态建设进展，他表示，国内现在有30多个操作系统都是基于鸿蒙开源构建的，涵盖了行 业终端、手机平板、家庭终端，加起来大概已经有6亿用户，世界排名第三。鸿蒙刚升级到4.0，升级以后，外面也会跟着升级。 任正非表示，华为会越来越困难，但华为也会越来越兴盛。"中国将来如果建立自己的标准体系，那这个标准体系肯定要比美国的好。 ...

Core Insights - The rise of AI, exemplified by DeepSeek, presents a significant opportunity for value reassessment in China and a reshuffling of urban dynamics in the country [1][2] National Strategy - The Chinese government proposed a "three-step" strategy for AI development in 2017, aiming for a core industry scale of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2020, 4 trillion yuan by 2025, and 10 trillion yuan by 2030 [3] - As of September 2024, the core AI industry scale in China has reached nearly 600 billion yuan, surpassing the 2025 target by 150% [3][4] City Comparisons - Beijing is the undisputed leader in AI, holding over 30% of national resources in talent, patents, enterprises, and financing, with a core industry scale of 300 billion yuan, accounting for half of the national total [5][6] - Shanghai has established itself as a hub for integrated circuit industries and AI chip companies, focusing on the "chip" aspect of AI, while also leading in computing power infrastructure [10][12] - Shenzhen ranks third in AI-related enterprises, with a strong manufacturing base and major tech giants like Huawei and Tencent driving innovation and ecosystem development [12][15][16] - Hangzhou is emerging as a disruptor in the AI space, particularly with the launch of DeepSeek-R1, which has significantly impacted the global AI landscape [18][19][21] Emerging Players - The "Six Little Dragons" from Hangzhou, including DeepSeek and Yushu Technology, are gaining attention for their innovative AI solutions and market share [19][20] - Zhejiang University has contributed significantly to AI research, ranking just behind Tsinghua and Peking University in terms of AI publication output [20] Competitive Landscape - Other cities like Guangzhou, Suzhou, Hefei, and Xi'an are also exploring unique pathways to develop their AI industries, highlighting the competitive nature of China's economic landscape [23][24]

https://github.com/HW-whistleblower/True-Story-of-Pangu 截至 2025-07-10 为止，作者「HW吹哨人」已追更补充 4 次，该文已收过 10500+ Star。347 个 issues，也是相当热闹。 推荐阅读 点击标题可跳转 1、 腾讯：鸿蒙架构特殊，微信适配必须从零重写代码 2、 华为盘古团队：否认抄袭！ 3、 B 站游戏高管"小姐姐"被逮捕 7 月 5 日， 华为盘古技术团队公开发声明，否认了最近的抄袭传闻 。 7 月 6 日，一篇自称盘古团队内部员工写的文档，在网上引发热议。 该文也发在 GitHub 上了。 - EOF - ...

事实上，上交所数据显示，科创人工智能ETF华宝（589520）近10个交易日中，有7个交易日获资金净 流入，累计金额1012万元。 成份股方面，乐鑫科技涨近6%，安路科技、虹软科技、奥普特、航天宏图、萤石网络等个股收红。 或由于英伟达市值突破4万亿美元，点燃AI投资热潮，今日（7月10日）重点布局国产AI产业链的科创 人工智能ETF华宝（589520）场内价格收跌0.47%，但频现宽幅溢价区间，显示买盘资金更为强势！全 天成交额近2000万元，较前一日环比激增133%，伴随成交放量，或有资金逢跌介入！ 2、技术突破驱动产业升级，国产化进程加速 国产大模型（如ChatGLM4、百度文心一言4.0、讯飞星火）已接近GPT-4性能，中文场景表现优异，成 本大幅下降，部分模型免费开放，降低应用门槛。多模态大模型（如华为盘古5.0）加速工业设计、医 疗研发等场景落地，缩短研发周期（如汽车造型设计从1-2年缩至数月）。端侧方面，AI手机、AI眼 镜、AIPC等硬件快速普及，高通、小米等厂商推动端侧AI生态成熟。 3、应用场景爆发，商业化进程加速 B端，行业赋能深化。工业领域，AI+CAD、智能控制、机器视觉优化生产流程， ...

7月初，华为盘古大模型陷入一场"抄袭门"风波。 起因是一位开源社区GitHub用户HonestAGI发表报告，称盘古Pro MoE模型注意力参数分布与阿里通义千问Qwen-2.5 14B模型相似度极高，平均相关系数 达0.927（接近完全一致的1.0），而且代码文件中含阿里Qwen的版权声明。该报告作者认为，盘古模型可能在千问模型的基础上进行了增量训练，而非完 全从零训练。 随后，一份自称为"华为盘古大模型团队、华为诺亚方舟实验室员工"的用户HW-whistleblower（华为吹哨人）在GitHub发表博文《盘古之殇》，以"亲历 者"的口吻，讲述了他眼中的"盘古套壳"事件，进而将此事推向舆论漩涡。 于盘古大模型开源代码的讨论。 盘古 Pro MoE开源模型是基于昇腾硬件 平台开发、训练的基础大模型,并非基 于其他厂商模型增量训练而来,在架构 设计、技术特性等方面做了关键创新, 是全球首个面向异腾硬件平台设计的同 规格混合专家模型,创新性地提出了分 组混合专家模型 (MoGE) 架构,有效 解决了大规模分布式训练的负载均衡难 题,提升训练效率。其他技术特性创 新,请参考异腾生态竞争力系列技术报 告披露内容。 ...

经济观察报 记者 周悦 7月4日，开源社区GitHub用户HonestAGI发布研究报告称，通过一种"模型指纹"技术（分析Transformer层注意力参数的标准差分布），发现华为盘古Pro MoE 72B与阿里通义千问Qwen-2.5 14B模型的相似度高达0.927（在统计学上，完全一致为1），远超业内通常的0.7阈值。 经济观察报检索该报告引用的文献内容，发现部分文献无法在公开数据库中查验。截至发稿前，该报告已经在Github删除，HonestAGI主页无法找到。 此外，原报告发布在GitHub页面，但点赞（stars）、收藏（forks）等数据数较低；相比之下，其他具备社区共识的模型安全/评估工具如OpenLlama Eval等， 往往在发布几小时内即获得数百互动。作为对比，OpenLlama Eval点赞目前超过7500，收藏超过400。 该报告作者认为，盘古模型可能在千问模型的基础上进行了增量训练，而非完全从零训练。 事涉华为和阿里，这一报告引发关注。支持者认为，两个模型在众多注意力参数上呈现近乎一致的分布，自然发生（非人为干预）的可能性较低。质疑者则 指出，这一方法过于简化，来自Github、知 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The computer industry continues to follow core trends of AI, localization, and robotics, with significant developments from Huawei, Hong Kong's digital asset policies, and Xiaomi's product launches [3][18] - Huawei's Developer Conference introduced HarmonyOS 6 and new AI cloud services, marking a new phase for the HarmonyOS ecosystem [3][18] - Hong Kong's Digital Asset Development Policy 2.0 aims to establish the region as a global hub for digital assets, emphasizing blockchain's role in enhancing financial transactions [3][19] - Xiaomi's YU7 model achieved remarkable pre-order success, indicating strong market demand and the company's commitment to R&D investment [3][20] Summary by Relevant Sections Huawei Developer Conference - The conference showcased HarmonyOS 6, with over 40 devices now running the system and more than 9000 applications in development [3][18] Hong Kong Digital Asset Policy - The new policy aims to create a diverse digital asset ecosystem, enhancing Hong Kong's position as a leading international financial center [3][19] Xiaomi Product Launch - Xiaomi's YU7 model received over 200,000 pre-orders within 3 minutes, highlighting its market impact and the company's future R&D investment plans [3][20] Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights key companies in the sector, including Empyrean Technology, Dameng Data, Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Newland Digital Technology, Jiangsu Tongxingbao, Kingdee International, and Huhu Information [3][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, recommending stocks such as Baidu, Huawei, and others, with an "Outperform" rating for the recommended targets [5][10][6]. Core Insights - Baidu and Huawei's open-source initiatives are expected to significantly promote the adoption of foundation models, lowering the barriers for R&D and application in AI technology [11][12]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has approved 7 national standards aimed at standardizing AI and digital services, which will enhance competitiveness and market opportunities for companies in the computer industry [12][13]. - The China Internet Association has initiated standards for algorithm management, which will facilitate the governance of recommendation algorithms and promote compliance within internet platform enterprises [13]. Summary by Sections Open-Source Initiatives - On June 30, Baidu and Huawei announced the open-sourcing of various models, including Baidu's Wenxin 4.5 series and Huawei's Pangu models, which will lower the R&D and application thresholds for AI technologies [11][10]. National Standards - The report highlights the approval of 7 national standards by the State Administration for Market Regulation, which will support the digital economy and enhance the interconnectivity of the computer industry [12][10]. Algorithm Management Standards - The initiation of algorithm management standards by the China Internet Association is expected to advance platform algorithm governance, focusing on compliance and security measures [13][10].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 07 月 09 日 通信 算力催生数据中心向智算发展，推动 PCB 向高阶升级迭代，看好相 关产业链投资机会 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 002881.SZ | 美格智能 | 买入 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 61.56 | 48.85 | | 301285.SZ | 鸿日达 | 买入 | 0.21 | 0.7 | 161.9 | 48.57 | | 600941.SH | 中国移动 | 买入 | 6.77 | 7.17 | 16.54 | 15.61 | | 601728.SH | 中国电信 | 买入 | 0.38 | 0.4 | 20.08 | 19.08 | 资料来源：长城证券产业金融研究院 本周策略观点： OpenA I向甲骨文租赁数据中心算力，看好未来 AIDC 产业链投资机会。据 据《金融时报》和彭博社援引知情人士报道，O ...