1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The prices of grains, edible oils, and livestock in Qingdao remain stable, with a slight decrease in pig prices and a continued rise in egg prices. Grain Prices - The average price of first-grade long-grain rice is 3.28 yuan per 500 grams, unchanged from last week, up 1.23% from last month, and down 1.71% year-on-year [2] - The average price of special-grade flour is 2.36 yuan, down 0.30% from last week, down 1.78% from last month, and down 0.72% year-on-year [2] - The average price of medium wheat is 1.18 yuan, unchanged from last week, down 0.84% from last month, and down 3.28% year-on-year [2] - The average price of medium corn is 1.19 yuan, unchanged from last week, up 0.85% from last month, and down 0.83% year-on-year [2] Edible Oil and Oilseed Prices - The average price of 5-liter bottled peanut oil is 133.10 yuan, stable compared to last week, down 0.08% from last month, and down 2.13% year-on-year [3] - The average price of 5-liter bottled soybean oil is 59.50 yuan, unchanged from last week, up 0.17% from last month, and down 2.46% year-on-year [3] - The average price of soybeans is 4.34 yuan, stable compared to last week, down 0.23% from last month, and down 2.91% year-on-year [3] - The average price of peanuts is 7.43 yuan, unchanged from last week, up 2.20% from last month, and up 0.41% year-on-year [3] Livestock Prices - The average price of live pigs is 7.30 yuan, down 1.39% from last week, up 0.51% from last month, and down 25.07% year-on-year [4] - The average price of pork belly is 15.60 yuan, stable compared to last week, up 2.25% from last month, and down 11.71% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lean pork is 15.85 yuan, down 0.09% from last week, up 2.07% from last month, and down 11.29% year-on-year [4] - The average price of beef is 37.40 yuan, down 0.15% from last week, down 1.06% from last month, and up 2.19% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lamb is 41.69 yuan, up 0.04% from last week, down 0.03% from last month, and down 4.54% year-on-year [4] Egg Prices - The average price of eggs is 3.82 yuan, up 5.52% from last week, up 10.13% from last month, and down 21.80% year-on-year [5] - The highest price for eggs this week is 4.10 yuan, and the lowest is 3.55 yuan [5] Vegetable Prices - The average wholesale price of vegetables in major markets is 2.09 yuan, unchanged from last week, up 2.20% from last month, and down 14.63% year-on-year [6] - The average retail price of 19 vegetable varieties is 3.75 yuan, down 0.27% from last week, up 8.70% from last month, and down 14.97% year-on-year [6] - Among the 19 vegetable varieties, 6 prices increased, 3 decreased, and 10 remained stable [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. There is a higher probability of the implementation of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" policy on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been released, with most rates (except for Japan and Malaysia) being lowered, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm employment in the US was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. On July 4th, the "Big and Beautiful" Act was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact on some domestic - demand - oriented commodities. On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" [7]. Asset Views - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. Pay attention to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" on assets. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [8]. Finance - The sentiment in the stock market rebounds, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a mild upward trend; stock index options remain cautious; the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures weakens [8]. Precious Metals - The risk preference rises, and precious metals such as gold and silver continue to adjust [8]. Shipping - The sentiment in the shipping market falls. For the container shipping route to Europe, focus on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases [8]. Black Building Materials - Iron ore performs strongly, supporting the price center of the sector. Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are in a volatile state, with different influencing factors for each [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff negotiations and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing a downward trend, such as zinc and nickel [8]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ over - expected production increase will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Different chemical products have different short - term trends, such as some showing volatile rises, some showing volatile falls, and some remaining volatile [10]. Agriculture - In the agricultural sector, the prices of some products such as pigs are under pressure, and different agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [10].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy-driven logic strengthening. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, geopolitical risks, etc. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [5] - The overseas stagflation trade has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. In the domestic market, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. In the overseas market, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and the stagflation trade has cooled down [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The June non - farm payrolls performance exceeded expectations, delaying the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit pressure. There are hidden concerns in the US employment market, and the bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [5] - **Domestic Macro**: The economic fundamentals have increased with resilience. The "anti - involution" policy has promoted the short - term rebound of commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon. Domestic - demand - oriented commodities and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year have been greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [5] - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets mainly have structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. A long - term weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on. Strategic allocation to gold and other resources should be maintained [5] 2. View Highlights - **Macro**: Domestic market may see moderate RRR and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented. Overseas, stagflation trade cools down. Stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate. Key points to watch include micro - cap stock stampedes, dollar liquidity deterioration, option liquidity, and unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7] - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch are Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7] - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The container shipping to Europe route is expected to oscillate, and key points to watch are tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by domestic and foreign policies, the price fluctuations of the sector have increased. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch include special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron ore production and shipment, etc. [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals continue to oscillate. Copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to oscillate, while zinc and nickel may oscillate downward [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Due to OPEC+ over - production, energy and chemicals are expected to oscillate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. may fall or oscillate downward, while some products like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to oscillate upward [9] - **Agriculture**: Rubber stabilizes after a decline. Products such as grains, oils, and livestock are expected to oscillate, and key points to watch include weather, production and demand data, and market transactions [9]

Price Trends in Dezhou City - The prices of major consumer goods in Dezhou City showed a slight increase, with 19 out of 55 monitored items rising, 10 falling, and 26 remaining stable, resulting in an overall price increase of 0.23% compared to the previous week [1] - Agricultural production material prices remained stable, with 1 item rising, 5 falling, and 19 stable among the 25 monitored items [1] Specific Commodity Price Changes - Prices for millet and peanuts increased slightly, with millet at 5.23 yuan (up 0.77%) and peanuts at 7.26 yuan (up 0.69%) [1] - Egg prices rebounded, increasing by 4.79% to 3.06 yuan, while beef prices decreased by 1.15% to 34.37 yuan [1] Seafood and Vegetable Price Movements - Some seafood prices fluctuated, with crucian carp at 17.41 yuan (down 1.42%) and shrimp at 27.12 yuan (up 1.01%) [2] - Vegetable prices showed an upward trend, with 12 out of 17 monitored vegetable varieties increasing, leading to an overall average price of 3.07 yuan (up 3.02%) [2] Fruit and Agricultural Material Prices - Fruit prices varied, with an overall average of 4.32 yuan (up 0.23%), including apples at 6.84 yuan (up 1.33%) and bananas at 3.72 yuan (down 1.85%) [2] - Agricultural material prices showed slight fluctuations, with domestic urea averaging 1.88 yuan (down 1.45%) and domestic potassium chloride at 3.50 yuan (down 0.71%) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the influence on demand and inflation continued to show in May. Despite recent weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies maintain stability, focusing on utilizing existing resources in the short term. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to remain resilient, but export and price data may face pressure due to trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The adverse effects of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April are evident. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. In April, the trade deficit was $616.2 billion, with imports significantly decreasing. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" indicated a slight decline in economic activity and a "somewhat pessimistic and uncertain" economic outlook. However, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth reduced market expectations of Fed rate cuts. It is predicted that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - **Domestic**: Policies remain stable, with a short - term focus on using existing resources. Manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to be resilient, but export and price data may face pressure due to trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - **Asset Views**: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro** - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [8]. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, economic growth expectations have improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [8]. **Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market is stable, and cautious covered call strategies are recommended. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [8]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. **Black Building Materials** - **Steel**: Demand continued to decline, and the market was mainly range - bound. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic hot - metal production, weather conditions, port ore inventories, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts has started, and market sentiment has cooled down. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The trading atmosphere was light, and upstream inventories continued to accumulate. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Demand expectations were poor, and the market was under pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment was cautious, and the market was in a low - level range. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply rumors have caused upstream inventories to accumulate. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is gradually recovering, and sentiment is affecting the market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventories [8]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: Inventories continued to accumulate, and copper prices were in a high - level range. The market is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [8]. - **Alumina**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the alumina market is in a high - level range. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Trade tensions have eased, and aluminum prices are in a strong - side range. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Zinc ingot inventories have decreased again, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Cost support still exists, and lead prices are fluctuating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are generally weak, and nickel prices are in a wide - range fluctuation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices have rebounded slightly, and the market is fluctuating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: Inventories in both markets continued to decline, and tin prices are fluctuating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The approaching flood season is putting pressure on silicon prices. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have decreased slightly, and lithium prices have risen with reduced positions. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [11]. - **LPG**: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of LPG is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: Profits have continued to expand, and the downward pressure on asphalt futures prices has increased. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to unexpected demand [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices rose, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil decreased. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate with crude oil. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Coal prices have stabilized, and the port basis has strengthened. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: The market is weak, waiting for the opportunity to rebound when agricultural demand is released. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to market transactions, policy trends, and demand realization [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. The market is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to ethylene glycol terminal demand [11]. - **PX**: PX prices declined due to polyester production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and downstream device changes [11]. - **PTA**: PTA prices declined due to polyester production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to polyester production [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: Textile and clothing demand is less than expected, and the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed at a high - level of production. The market is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to terminal textile and clothing exports [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: High - level production has led to oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to future bottle - chip production [11]. - **PP**: Oil prices rebounded, and attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [11]. - **Plastic**: The raw - material end provides support, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [11]. - **Styrene**: The current situation is still poor, and styrene is in a weak - side fluctuation. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: Short - term sentiment has improved, and PVC has a weak rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and it is recommended to short caustic soda. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. **Agriculture** - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production in May is expected to be limited, and market sentiment has stabilized. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices have declined, and the basis has weakened. The technical rebound of the market is expected to be limited. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The spot market is stable, and the market continues to rise. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather [11]. - **Pigs**: Supply has increased while demand is weak, and pig prices are weak. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: There are no new variables, and the market has stabilized. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [11]. - **Pulp**: There is no major driving force for pulp, and the market is mainly range - bound. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [11]. - **Cotton**: Demand has weakened, and there is insufficient driving force for cotton prices. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand and production [11]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to have sufficient supply, and the domestic market is driven down by the overseas market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to abnormal weather [11]. - **Timber**: Spot prices are weak, and the market is declining. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [11].

Price Fluctuations in Qingdao - Grain prices in Qingdao experienced slight fluctuations this week, with edible oil and oilseed prices showing a minor decline, while prices for live pigs and eggs continued to drop, and vegetable prices remained stable [1] Grain Prices - The average price of first-grade long-grain rice is 3.24 yuan per 500 grams, down 0.61% from last week, 0.31% from last month, and 1.82% from last year [2] - The average price of special-grade flour is 2.41 yuan, up 0.42% from both last week and last month, and up 1.69% from last year [2] - The average price of medium wheat is 1.20 yuan, unchanged from last week and last month, down 1.64% from last year [2] - The average price of medium corn is 1.17 yuan, up 0.86% from last week, 3.54% from last month, and 0.86% from last year [2] Edible Oil and Oilseed Prices - The average price of 5-liter bottled peanut oil is 134 yuan, down 0.22% from both last week and last month, and down 1.47% from last year [3] - The average price of 5-liter bottled soybean oil is 59.56 yuan, down 0.14% from last week, up 0.11% from last month, and down 2.35% from last year [3] - The average price of soybeans is 4.36 yuan, unchanged from last week and last month, down 2.68% from last year [3] - The average price of peanuts is 7.32 yuan, down 0.12% from last week, 0.39% from last month, and down 1.06% from last year [3] Live Pig Prices - The average price of live pigs is 7.32 yuan, down 0.31% from last week, 1.78% from last month, and down 25.03% from last year [4] - The average price of pork belly is 15.60 yuan, down 0.36% from last week, 1.27% from last month, and down 9.30% from last year [4] - The average price of lean pork is 15.81 yuan, down 0.54% from last week, 1.16% from last month, and down 9.63% from last year [4] - The average price of beef is 37 yuan, up 0.24% from last week, 1.65% from last month, and down 0.80% from last year [4] - The average price of lamb is 41.30 yuan, unchanged from last week, down 1.43% from last month, and down 7.81% from last year [4] Egg Prices - The average price of eggs is 3.59 yuan, down 2.86% from last week, 5.48% from last month, and down 20.30% from last year [5] - The highest price for eggs this week is 3.85 yuan, while the lowest is 3.35 yuan [5] Vegetable Prices - The average wholesale price of vegetables in major markets is 2.21 yuan, unchanged from last week, up 0.20% from last month, and up 0.01% from last year [6] - The average retail price of 19 vegetable varieties is 3.46 yuan, unchanged from last week, down 2.26% from last month, and up 3.90% from last year [6] - Among the 19 vegetable varieties, prices for 5 increased, 5 decreased, and 9 remained stable [6]

Grain Prices - The average price of first-grade long-grain rice is 3.26 yuan per 500 grams, down 0.26% from last week, unchanged from last month, and down 1.21% year-on-year [2] - The average price of special flour is 2.40 yuan, up 0.42% from last week, unchanged from last month, and up 1.27% year-on-year [2] - The average price of medium wheat is 1.20 yuan, unchanged from last week, up 0.84% from last month, and down 5.51% year-on-year [2] - The average price of medium corn is 1.16 yuan, up 0.87% from last week, up 3.57% from last month, and roughly unchanged year-on-year [2] Edible Oils and Oilseeds - The average price of 5-liter bottled peanut oil is 134.30 yuan, unchanged from last week and last month, down 1.25% year-on-year [3] - The average price of 5-liter bottled soybean oil is 59.65 yuan, unchanged from last week, up 0.13% from last month, and down 3.01% year-on-year [3] - The average price of soybeans is 4.36 yuan, unchanged from last week and last month, down 2.96% year-on-year [3] - The average price of peanuts is 7.33 yuan, up 0.16% from last week, down 0.27% from last month, and down 0.95% year-on-year [3] Pork Prices - The average price of live pigs is 7.34 yuan, down 1.48% from last week, down 1.61% from last month, and down 16.67% year-on-year [4] - The average price of pork belly is 15.66 yuan, down 0.91% from last week and last month, up 0.64% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lean pork is 15.90 yuan, down 0.62% from last week and last month, down 0.71% year-on-year [4] - The average price of beef is 36.91 yuan, down 0.24% from last week, up 2.53% from last month, and down 2.43% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lamb is 41.30 yuan, down 0.41% from last week, down 1.37% from last month, and down 11.02% year-on-year [4] Egg Prices - The average price of eggs is 3.70 yuan, down 2.26% from last week, down 5.85% from last month, and down 18.99% year-on-year [5] - The highest price for eggs this week is 3.95 yuan, and the lowest is 3.40 yuan [5] Vegetable Prices - The average wholesale price of vegetables is 2.21 yuan, up 0.82% from last week, down 1.83% from last month, and down 1.17% year-on-year [6] - The average daily market volume of vegetables is 2.1475 million kilograms, up 3.77% from last week, up 2.83% from last month, and up 0.96% year-on-year [6] - The average retail price of 19 vegetable varieties is 3.46 yuan, down 0.29% from last week, down 1.98% from last month, and down 1.70% year-on-year [6] - Among the 19 vegetable varieties, 5 prices increased, 4 decreased, and 10 remained stable [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Price Monitoring Summary - The price of consumer goods in Yiyuan County, Shandong Province, shows mixed trends compared to the previous week, with significant declines in vegetable and fruit prices [1] Grain and Oil Prices - Grain prices remain stable, with corn priced at 1.22 yuan/kg and wheat at 1.20 yuan/kg, showing little change week-on-week [2] - Oil and other grain products also maintain stability, with prices for various items such as noodles at 2.4 yuan/kg and peanut oil at 10.00 yuan/kg [2] Egg Prices - Egg prices have seen a slight increase, currently at 3.6 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of approximately 5.9% [2] Fruit Prices - Fruit prices have dropped significantly, with average declines around 9.2%. Specific prices include apples at 3.5 yuan/kg, watermelons at 1.00 yuan/kg, and bananas at 3.00 yuan/kg [2] Vegetable Prices - Vegetable prices have experienced a notable decrease, with an average drop of about 7.2%. Key vegetables such as carrots, tomatoes, and potatoes have seen price reductions of 27.8%, 40%, and 33.3% respectively compared to the previous week [3]