智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，蔚来-SW(09866)接连成功推出L90与ES8两款车型，这或 将改变市场对其股票的看法，并为2026年25%-30%的销量增长提供支撑。采用加权概率估值法，大摩预 计蔚来销量将实现稳定增长。 报告表示，蔚来于9月20日推出新款ES8，售价为40.68万元人民币，较预售价低1万元人民币，且比2024 款便宜18%，基本符合市场预期。境内投资者看好ES8订单持续强劲，认为该股有望跑赢大盘。尽管目 前无法获取精确的订单数据，但大摩通过渠道调查了解到，截至9月21日中午，确认订单量或已达4.5万 至5万辆，这表明预售订单的转化率表现优异。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that NIO-SW (09866) has successfully launched the L90 and ES8 models, which may change market perception of its stock and support a 25%-30% sales growth by 2026 [1] - The new ES8 model was launched on September 20, priced at 406,800 RMB, which is 10,000 RMB lower than the pre-sale price and 18% cheaper than the 2024 model, aligning with market expectations [1] - Domestic investors are optimistic about the strong order flow for the ES8, believing the stock could outperform the market, with preliminary order estimates reaching 45,000 to 50,000 units as of September 21 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) market is shifting focus towards profitability, with major players setting clear targets for achieving positive earnings by the end of 2025, moving away from reliance on subsidies and external investments [1][2][4]. Group 1: Profitability Targets - NIO's founder, Li Bin, stated that the company must achieve quarterly profitability by Q4 2025, relying solely on operational capabilities [1]. - XPeng's founder, He Xiaopeng, also indicated that XPeng aims for profitability by Q4 2025 [2]. - Xiaomi's founder, Lei Jun, mentioned that losses in Xiaomi's automotive business are narrowing, with expectations to achieve profitability between Q3 and Q4 of this year [3]. Group 2: Current Financial Performance - Li Auto achieved a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan in Q2, while Leap Motor reported a net profit of 160 million yuan [6]. - Li Auto's revenue for Q2 was 30.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, with R&D and marketing expenses also declining [9]. - Leap Motor is in an expansion phase, with significant increases in marketing and R&D expenses, yet still maintaining profitability [8]. Group 3: Strategies for Profitability - Xiaomi is focusing on increasing revenue while also investing more, with automotive revenue reaching 20.6 billion yuan, more than double the previous year's figure [16]. - XPeng's revenue grew by 125.3% year-on-year, with a focus on smart technology investments while maintaining efficient R&D spending [21]. - NIO is implementing cost-cutting measures, with a significant reduction in sales and management expenses, aiming to narrow losses to 4.9 billion yuan in Q2 [25]. Group 4: Market Positioning and Challenges - Li Auto is facing challenges with declining sales and revenue, with a projected Q3 sales guidance of only 90,000 to 95,000 units, down from 111,000 in Q2 [11]. - NIO's strategy involves maintaining a pure electric model while facing challenges in scaling its battery swap stations, which require a significant vehicle ownership base to become profitable [40]. - Leap Motor and XPeng are working to diversify their brand identities beyond just "cost-performance" to enhance their market positioning [32]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The EV market is entering a mature phase, with companies focusing on transitioning to profitable operations while navigating technological advancements such as L3 autonomous driving [48]. - The success of new product launches will be critical, as failures could significantly impact a company's market position and viability [48].

Core Viewpoint - NIO is striving to achieve profitability in the fourth quarter and has successfully secured external funding through a new equity issuance, raising approximately $1 billion to support its long-term development and enhance its financial strength [1][2]. Financing and Capital Structure - On September 10, NIO announced the issuance of 181.8 million Class A ordinary shares, including American Depositary Shares (ADS), completing a $1 billion equity offering priced at $5.57 per ADS and HK$43.36 per Class A share [1]. - This marks NIO's second public financing plan in 2023, having previously raised HK$3.5 billion in March at a price of HK$29.46 per share, bringing total financing in the secondary market to over 10 billion yuan this year [1]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, NIO reported revenue of 19.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net loss of 4.995 billion yuan, slightly improved from a net loss of 5.046 billion yuan in the same period last year and a reduction of 26% from Q1's loss of 6.75 billion yuan [2][4]. - The company has implemented cost control measures, including organizational restructuring and efficiency improvements in R&D, supply chain, sales, and services, which have contributed to the narrowing of losses [3]. Cash Flow and Expenses - As of the end of Q2 2025, NIO's cash reserves stood at 27.2 billion yuan, a slight increase from 26 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, but down from 41.9 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [4]. - R&D expenses for Q2 were 2.489 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year and 14.6% quarter-on-quarter, while selling, general, and administrative expenses were 3.6822 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6% from the previous quarter [4]. Production and Sales Goals - NIO aims to achieve a monthly production capacity of 15,000 units for the L90 model by October and the same for the ES8 by December, with a target of 25,000 units per month in total production capacity for Q4 [5]. - The company anticipates that if Q4 sales reach 150,000 units, it could achieve profitability on a Non-GAAP basis for that quarter [5].

Core Viewpoint - NIO is facing significant challenges in achieving profitability by Q4, with CEO Li Bin emphasizing the need for a combination of long-term strategy and short-term execution to overcome skepticism and achieve delivery and efficiency goals [3][10][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, NIO delivered 72,056 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71.2%, with revenue reaching 19.01 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year and 57.9% quarter-on-quarter [6][9]. - The company aims for a monthly delivery of 50,000 vehicles in Q4, with a total quarterly target of 150,000 vehicles, requiring an average monthly production capacity of 56,000 vehicles across its three brands [10][11]. - NIO's gross margin is expected to recover to 16%-17% in Q4, with Q2 gross margin at 10.3% and non-vehicle business gross margin at approximately 8% [11][12]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Li Bin has implemented a CBU (Core Business Unit) mechanism to ensure that each R&D project has clear investment return expectations and undergoes evaluation upon completion, enhancing short-term operational awareness while maintaining long-term goals [7][12]. - The company is focusing on product competitiveness, emphasizing the importance of technology routes, product planning, and product definition to adapt to market demands [12][13]. Group 3: Market Trends and Product Strategy - The electric vehicle market is at a turning point, with pure electric vehicle sales increasing by 24.5% year-on-year, while range-extended vehicles saw an 11.4% decline, indicating a shift in consumer preference [13]. - NIO's multi-brand strategy aims to cater to a broader customer base, with NIO positioned as a high-end technology brand, Lido focusing on family users, and Firefly targeting high-end small cars [13][14]. Group 4: Organizational Changes and Challenges - NIO has undergone significant organizational changes to improve efficiency, with a focus on enhancing R&D and operational capabilities, which has led to faster product releases and improved delivery timelines [14][27]. - The company acknowledges the need for a cultural shift within the organization to adapt to external pressures and internal challenges, emphasizing the importance of collective effort in overcoming difficulties [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - NIO aims to achieve profitability in Q4 after significant losses in Q1, with CEO Li Bin expressing confidence in the company's long-term strategy and operational improvements [1][5][10] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, NIO delivered 72,056 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71.2%, with revenue reaching 19.01 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year and 57.9% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The company targets a monthly delivery of 50,000 vehicles in Q4, aiming for a total of 150,000 vehicles for the quarter, with a gross margin recovery to 16%-17% [6][7] - NIO's Q2 gross margin was reported at 10.3%, with non-vehicle business gross margin reaching approximately 8% [6] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Li Bin has implemented a CBU (Core Business Unit) mechanism to enhance investment return awareness and operational efficiency, focusing on short-term profitability while maintaining long-term goals [2][3] - The company is undergoing a significant transformation, emphasizing product competitiveness and organizational efficiency, which has led to improved delivery and operational metrics [9][10][23] Group 3: Market Position and Product Strategy - NIO is positioned as a high-end technology brand, with multiple brands (NIO, Lido, and Firefly) targeting different customer segments, which is expected to enhance market reach and operational efficiency [8][9] - The launch of new models, particularly the L90 and the new ES8, has generated positive market reception, contributing to increased consumer confidence and sales [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong Q3 with delivery guidance of 87,000 to 91,000 vehicles and revenue expectations between 21.8 billion to 22.2 billion yuan [4][6] - NIO's long-term strategy includes maintaining a focus on product innovation and customer feedback to adapt to market demands, ensuring sustained competitiveness in the electric vehicle sector [8][29]

Group 1 - NIO aims to achieve profitability in Q4 2023, with CEO Li Bin emphasizing the need for the company to rely on its own capabilities rather than external factors, following a significant loss in Q1 2023 [2] - Tesla has filed a motion to overturn a $243 million judgment related to a fatal accident involving its autonomous driving system, arguing that the jury's decision was inconsistent with Florida law and that the driver bore most of the responsibility [2] - Guangzhou has announced the suspension of its automobile "replacement and upgrade" subsidy policy effective from August 30, 2025, impacting consumers who have not completed their vehicle purchases by the specified date [2] Group 2 - Audi's new 2027 RS6 Avant is undergoing testing at the Nürburgring, featuring a new plug-in hybrid system with expected output exceeding 700 horsepower [2]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's long-term leadership in the market is attributed not only to sales volume but also to its expansive vision encompassing cars, chips, and energy, which has been challenged in recent years, leading to a decline in market confidence [1] Group 1: Chip Development - NIO has independently built its backend design team for chips, unlike competitors who outsourced, allowing it to seek financing for its chip designs [1] - The ability to design chips in-house positions NIO favorably compared to competitors like Xiaopeng, which lacks this capability [1] Group 2: Automotive Business - NIO's second-generation products faced significant issues due to overambitious definitions, leading to poor performance [2] - Recent product launches, such as the L60 and L90, indicate a potential turnaround in product definition and market performance [2] Group 3: Energy Strategy - The success of NIO's energy business hinges on creating a competitive environment where other car manufacturers join the battery swap alliance [3] - The rise of competitors like AITO has shifted market dynamics, prompting NIO to adopt a strategy similar to Huawei's smart driving solutions [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - By 2026, NIO is expected to see significant results from its integrated strategy of chips, cars, and energy, potentially reclaiming its position as a market leader alongside Huawei and Xiaomi [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Auto Dealers - **Company**: Huawei Aito Key Points and Arguments Dealer Sentiment - Aito dealers are optimistic about the upcoming launch of the new M7 model, scheduled for September [1] - Despite the M7 launch, dealers are conservative about 2025 sales volume, targeting only flat growth [1] - The new M9 and M8 models are expected to compete with Li Auto i8 and NIO's Onvo L90, but not with Xiaomi, as M9/M8 target customers over 35 years old, while Xiaomi targets younger consumers [1] Customer Profile - The typical customer for the M9 is identified as high-net-worth individuals, while the M8 targets the middle-income group [1] Dealer Margins - Aito dealers earn sales commissions from Huawei and delivery commissions from Seres [2] - Compared to Xiaomi, Aito dealers have more flexibility in selling new car accessories, auto finance, and insurance products, contributing to a 4-5% margin on new car sales [2] Dealer Network Expansion - The Aito dealer network is still expanding, although the pace has slowed since Q4 2024, when Zhongsheng and Yongda rapidly added Aito stores [2] Additional Important Information - The report includes analyst certifications and disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest, emphasizing that Morgan Stanley may have business relationships with companies covered in the research [3][4] - The document outlines the stock ratings distribution and methodology used by Morgan Stanley, indicating a relative rating system without assigning traditional buy/sell recommendations [23][28] Conclusion - The sentiment among Aito dealers is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for new model launches but conservative sales targets for 2025. The dealer network continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, and margins remain healthy due to flexible sales strategies.

Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing significant changes in sales rankings among emerging car manufacturers, with Leap Motor achieving the highest sales in July, surpassing 50,000 units for the first time [1] - Hongmeng Zhixing follows closely with over 47,000 units sold, while XPeng Motors ranks third with over 36,000 units [1] - Li Auto, which has consistently ranked among the top sellers in recent years, has notably dropped out of the top three in July [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Leap Motor's sales reached 50,129 units in July, marking a 126% year-on-year increase and setting a new monthly delivery record [1] - Hongmeng Zhixing's total sales for July amounted to 47,752 units, driven by strong performance from the AITO brand, which sold over 40,000 units [1] - XPeng Motors, Li Auto, and Xiaomi Motors each surpassed 30,000 units in July, while NIO maintained sales above 20,000 units [1] Group 2: Market Strategies - Leap Motor's success is attributed to its competitive pricing strategy, which has allowed it to capture a significant market share [1] - NIO has implemented cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements in response to substantial losses and sluggish sales growth [1] - The upcoming launch of the new model from the collaboration between Huawei and SAIC, targeting the 150,000 yuan market, is expected to boost sales for Hongmeng Zhixing [1]