期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 08 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望为宜 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月 ...

| 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,824.81 | -1.11% | | 深圳成指 | 12,914.67 | -1.51% | | 沪深 300 | 4,497.55 | -1.20% | | 上证 50 | 2,954.79 | -1.08% | | 中证 500 | 7,001.32 | -1.58% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 49,383.29 | -1.56% | | 道琼指数 | 48,114.26 | -0.62% | | 标普 500 | 6,800.26 | -0.24% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,111.46 | 0.23% | | 美元指数 | 98.2199 | -0.06% | | 人民币 | 7.0425 | -0.11% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,332.20 | -0.05% | | WTI 原油 | 55.27 | -2.73% | | LME 铜 | 11,619.00 | -0.57% | | LME 铝 | 2,882.50 | 0.26% | ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Long - term bullish with dips for buying**: Index futures [1][5] - **Range trading**: Coking coal, rebar, copper, aluminum, tin, gold, silver, PVC, benzene ethylene, rubber, urea, cotton and cotton yarn, PTA, eggs, soybean meal [1][5][10] - **Weak oscillation**: Glass, polyolefins, red dates, short - term oils and fats [1][8][26] - **Side - line observation or short - selling on rallies**: Nickel [1][15] - **Temporary observation**: Treasury bonds, caustic soda, soda ash [1][5][20] - **Bullish oscillation**: Carbonate lithium, apples [1][18] - **Near - term low - level weak adjustment, cautious chasing rallies in the far - term**: Live pigs [1][33] - **Waiting for rallies to hedge on the long - term**: Corn [1][37] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across multiple industries. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and policy expectations to analyze the market trends of each product. For example, in the macro - financial sector, index futures may oscillate due to factors like inflation, retail sales, and Fed policy expectations; in the energy - chemical sector, products are affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - political factors [5][18][20]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: May oscillate in the short - term due to factors like US inflation, retail sales, and Fed policy expectations. Long - term bullish, recommend buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Likely to oscillate. Short - term trading depends on news, economic data, and policy expectations, while the long - term needs clear signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Range trading. The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Low valuation and weak drivers may lead to low - level oscillation [7] - **Glass**: Expected to continue weakening. Cold - repair rumors have boosted far - month contracts, but actual production cuts are rare, and inventory issues remain severe [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Geopolitical factors in Congo (Kinshasa) and market consumption trends affect the price. Suggest short - term range trading [10] - **Aluminum**: Oscillate. Factors such as bauxite prices, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production, and demand influence the market [12] - **Nickel**: Oscillate. Supply may be abundant in the future, recommend side - line observation or short - selling on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Oscillate. Supply is expected to improve, and attention should be paid to overseas supply and downstream demand [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed policy, and market expectations of interest rate cuts [17] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bullish oscillation. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to mine production and demand from the energy storage sector [18] Energy - Chemical - **PVC**: Oscillate weakly. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain export growth pose challenges [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate. Valuation is suppressed by alumina production cuts, and attention should be paid to policy expectations [20] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Oscillate. Affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [22] - **Rubber**: Oscillate. Supply and demand factors, such as production season and inventory, lead to range - bound prices [22] - **Urea**: Oscillate. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by agricultural and industrial needs [24] - **Methanol**: Oscillate. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weakly oscillate. Cost pressure, supply - demand relationships, and inventory trends affect the market [27] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily observe. Supply is excessive, but cost support may limit the downside [29] Cotton - spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, but strong yarn prices may drive a rebound [29] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [30][31] - **Apples**: Bullish oscillation. Market trading is relatively stable [31] - **Red Dates**: Weakly oscillate. Acquisition progress varies by region, and enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average [32] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Near - term prices are under pressure, and long - term prices are cautiously bullish. Supply pressure persists in the short - term, and capacity reduction is ongoing in the long - term [33] - **Eggs**: Range - bound with limited upside. Supply is gradually improving, and demand is being supported [36] - **Corn**: May rebound. Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but long - term supply - demand is relatively loose [37][38] - **Soybean Meal**: Range - bound. Affected by US soybean prices, supply, and demand [38] - **Oils and Fats**: Weakly adjust in the short - term. Affected by factors such as palm oil production, soybean exports, and biodiesel policies [39][45]

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 卖出看涨 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 多头减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头离场观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 低位震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹承压 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 上涨受限 | | ◆玉米： | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for taking profits on long positions at high levels or range short - term trading; Aluminum is suggested to buy on dips; Nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade in a range; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][30][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][33][34][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are facing resistance in rebound; Eggs have limited upside; Corn is in a bottom - building phase; Soybean meal is in range oscillation; Oils are in a bottom - building and rebounding phase [1][37][39][41][43][45] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by policy, supply - demand, and international factors. For example, the macro - financial sector is influenced by domestic policies and global risk preferences; the non - ferrous metals sector is affected by international trade and supply - demand fundamentals; the agricultural and livestock sector is related to production capacity, consumption seasons, and policies [5][10][37] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market is in oscillation. Global risk preference and domestic policies fail to boost market sentiment. The market lacks a clear main line, so index futures may oscillate. Long - term bullish with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a moderately loose tone. The possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year is limited. The bond market is in a range - trading phase, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: The coal market has tight supply - demand and rising prices. Supply is restricted by mine shutdowns, and demand is improving. It is expected to trade in a range [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is in narrow - range oscillation. The market is affected by macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals. The price has limited downside due to low valuation [7] - **Glass**: Production cuts are implemented. Supply is reduced, but demand is weak. The inventory is relatively high, and there is delivery pressure. It is recommended to sell call options [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price hits a record high and then falls. It is affected by trade, supply, and interest - rate policies. The supply is tightening, but the demand is suppressed by high prices. It is expected to trade in a high - level range [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is expected to improve. The production capacity and inventory are changing. The market is over - trading some expectations. It is recommended to strengthen observation [10][11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The production is changing, and the supply is expected to improve. The downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US government shutdown, employment, and interest - rate policies, they are in oscillation. They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand. It is recommended for range trading [18][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, supply is high, and demand is weak. The export growth sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [22] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the valuation is under pressure. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [24] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [25][26] - **Rubber**: The market lacks a clear driving force. The inventory and production capacity utilization are changing. It is expected to trade in a range [26] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is spreading. The price is expected to oscillate, and the rebound sustainability needs attention [27][28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. It is expected to trade in a range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to be bearish in oscillation [30] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, and the demand is weak. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The seed - cotton price is high, and trade negotiations are progressing. It is expected to trade in a range [33] - **PTA**: The oil price is affecting, and the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is in low - level oscillation [34] - **Apples**: The ground trading is ending, and the出库 is starting. The production and quality are declining. It is expected to be slightly bullish [34] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition price is changing, and the market sentiment is weak. It is expected to be slightly bearish [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is in narrow - range oscillation. The long - term supply is high, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The price increase is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and trade in a range for the 01 - contract [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The long - term cost has support. It is in a bottom - building phase [41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by US policies and Brazilian planting, it is in range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3000 - yuan support level [43][44] - **Oils**: Different oils have different supply - demand situations. They are expected to bottom - build and rebound in the short - term and trade in a wide range in the long - term [45][49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; neutral on glass, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [1][7][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, recommended to go long on dips after pullbacks; neutral on nickel, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on polyolefins, recommended for wide-range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommended a short-selling strategy [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples and jujubes, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][34][36] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Bearish on live pigs and eggs, recommended to go short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for wide-range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils and fats, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][38][43] Core Views - The policy level emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock market, which boosts market risk appetite. However, there may be a risk of profit-taking after important meetings. The LPR remains unchanged, but there is still a possibility of a cut in the future. The outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month will be a key factor determining market risk appetite [5] - The supply of coking coal is expected to gradually recover after the National Day holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. The first round of coke price increases has started after the holiday, and the demand from steel mills supports the price increase. The price of rebar is expected to oscillate at a low level, with limited room for a sharp decline. The glass market is facing pressure from environmental protection and macro policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [7][9][10] - The global trade situation is tense, but the Chinese copper import situation has boosted market confidence. The copper fundamentals are relatively stable, and the supply-side accidents have a continuous impact. The price of aluminum is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The supply of nickel is expected to be loose in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [11][12][17] - The PVC market is facing weak domestic demand and high inventory, and the export sustainability is questionable. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm and export situation. The styrene market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [21][24][25] - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a period of strong consolidation, supported by the firm overseas raw material prices and the reduction of dark rubber inventory. The urea market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the compound fertilizer production start-up situation, urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [27][28] - The methanol market is expected to oscillate, with strong support from the main downstream demand. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand situation, Fed rate cuts, Sino-US trade war impact, Middle East situation, and oil price fluctuations [29][31] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to oscillate, affected by the Sino-US relationship. The PTA market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the weak macro and cost factors. The apple and jujube markets are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the high-quality fruit prices and the approaching new season [34][35][36] - The live pig market is under pressure in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a reduced position size and wait for rallies to add short positions. The egg market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the far-month contracts. The corn market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the main contract and pay attention to the 1-5 reverse spread [38][40][42] - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. The oils and fats market is expected to have limited downward adjustments in the short term, and it is recommended to go long after the adjustment. The palm oil market is facing pressure from inventory accumulation, but there is also support from the upcoming减产 season. The soybean oil market is facing pressure from high inventory, but the supply gap in November has been narrowed. The rapeseed oil market is expected to have a tight supply situation before the re-import of Canadian rapeseed, and the price bottom support remains [43][46][49] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The policy level emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock market, which boosts market risk appetite. However, there may be a risk of profit-taking after important meetings. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The LPR remains unchanged, but there is still a possibility of a cut in the future. The outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month will be a key factor determining market risk appetite. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to gradually recover after the National Day holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. The first round of coke price increases has started after the holiday, and the demand from steel mills supports the price increase. It is recommended for range trading [7][8] - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with limited room for a sharp decline. The RB2601 contract is recommended to look for opportunities to go long around 3000 [9] - **Glass**: The market is facing pressure from environmental protection and macro policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance and wait for a reversal before considering going long [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation is tense, but the Chinese copper import situation has boosted market confidence. The copper fundamentals are relatively stable, and the supply-side accidents have a continuous impact. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to go long on dips after pullbacks. The alumina is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options, and the cast aluminum alloy is recommended to go long on dips or go long AD and short AL [12][13][15] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Silver and Gold**: The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. The precious metal prices are expected to be supported by the interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion sentiment. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 11,000 - 12,000 for the SHFE silver 12 contract and 935 - 990 for the SHFE gold 12 contract [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is facing weak domestic demand and high inventory, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm and export situation. The 01 contract is temporarily focusing on the pressure level of 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies. It is temporarily focusing on the pressure level of 6600 [25] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to enter a period of strong consolidation, supported by the firm overseas raw material prices and the reduction of dark rubber inventory. It is temporarily focusing on the support level of 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the compound fertilizer production start-up situation, urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations. The reference range is 1550 - 1650 [28] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate, with strong support from the main downstream demand. The inventory is at a high level, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand situation, Fed rate cuts, Sino-US trade war impact, Middle East situation, and oil price fluctuations. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support level of 6800, and the PP main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support level of 6500 [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract is recommended to adopt a short-selling strategy. The supply is in excess, and the price is expected to decline gradually under the pressure of inventory accumulation [31][33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to oscillate, affected by the Sino-US relationship. The 2025/26 global cotton production and consumption are both expected to increase, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease [34][35] - **PTA**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the weak macro and cost factors. The supply and demand are in a state of slow inventory accumulation [35] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the high-quality fruit prices and the approaching new season [36][37] Agricultural Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The market is under pressure in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a reduced position size and wait for rallies to add short positions. The 05 - 03 spread arbitrage is recommended to be followed [38][40] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the far-month contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to the chicken culling, weather, chicken diseases, and environmental protection policies [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the main contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy and weather conditions [42] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. It is recommended to pay attention to the Sino-US trade relationship and the procurement of vessels after October [43] - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to have limited downward adjustments in the short term, and it is recommended to go long after the adjustment. The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts are recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively [43][50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Ranged trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to wait and see for glass [1][8][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Recommended to hold long positions on copper on dips; consider low-level long positions on aluminum; wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; ranged trading for tin; buy on dips for gold; ranged trading for silver [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate; short strategy for soda ash 01 contract [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook; PTA is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have a wide-range fluctuation; soybean meal is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation; oils are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][40][48] Core Viewpoints - The stock index market may have wide-range fluctuations in the future due to the change in the macro environment and the impact on the technology sector; the bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as rainfall, demand, and tariffs, with prices showing different trends; the non-ferrous metals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro factors, with copper and gold prices expected to be supported [11][19] - The energy chemicals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro policies, with PVC and soda ash facing certain pressure; the cotton textile industry chain is affected by supply and demand and Sino-US relations, with cotton and PTA showing different trends [22][34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by supply, demand, and policies, with pigs and eggs facing supply pressure and oils expected to have limited callbacks [40][52] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The market turnover has increased, and the technology sector has been affected by the macro environment [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. The bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The pithead price shows a differentiated trend, and the demand for early heating provides potential support [8] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The price has fallen, and the static valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the buying opportunity around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply has increased slightly, the inventory has risen, and the market is affected by policies and supply news [9][10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to maintain a high-level strong trend. The supply is affected by accidents, and the demand has room for improvement in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, the demand is in the peak season, and it is recommended to consider low-level long positions [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply may be loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is tight, the demand is warming up, and it is recommended to conduct ranged trading [18] - **Gold and Silver**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The prices are supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk aversion. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price corrections [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4800 for 01 [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 2380 - 2530 for 01 [25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to maintain a short strategy for the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the price may decline [33] - **Other Chemicals**: The markets of styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate, and different factors affect their prices [22][26][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook. The supply and demand are adjusted, and the Sino-US relationship brings uncertainty [34] - **PTA**: The market is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation. The cost support is insufficient, and the supply and demand are balanced [35][36] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The markets are expected to fluctuate stronger. The production and supply of apples are affected by the weather, and the supply of jujubes is affected by the harvest time [36][37] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The market is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak in the short and long term. It is recommended to adjust short positions [40] - **Eggs**: The market is under pressure to rebound. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adjust short positions and wait for the spot market [42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation. The new crop is listed, and the supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to have a low-level range-bound fluctuation. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2900 for M2601 [45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to have limited callbacks. The prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to buy after the callback [52]

交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅：Z0015756 电话：027-65777102 邮箱：caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,933.97 | 1.32% | | 深圳成指 | 13,725.56 | 1.47% | | 沪深 300 | 4,709.48 | 1.48% | | 上证 50 | 3,020.60 | 1.06% | | 中证 500 | 7,548.92 | 1.84% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 48,580.44 | 1.77% | | 道琼指数 | 46,358.42 | -0.52% | | 标普 500 | 6,735.11 | -0.28% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,024.63 | -0.08% | | 美元指数 | 99.3875 | 0.55% | | 人民币 | 7.1246 | 0.08% | | 纽约黄金 | 3,991.10 | -1.71% | | WTI 原油 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - Black building materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][10] - Non-ferrous metals: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading or cautious long positions [1][12][19] - Energy and chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; recommended for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage on soda ash [1][22][34] - Cotton textile industry chain: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; bearish on PTA, recommended for range trading with a downward bias; neutral on apples, recommended for range trading with an upward bias; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range trading with a downward bias [1][36][37] - Agricultural and livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to sell on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; bearish on soybean meal, recommended for range trading with a downward bias; bullish on oils, recommended to buy after the correction [1][40][53] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the medium to long term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. The bond market is gradually recovering, and market sentiment is stabilizing [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as coal prices and policy expectations. The non-ferrous metals market is influenced by macro factors and supply and demand. The energy and chemicals market is facing challenges such as high inventory and weak demand [8][12][23] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and policy changes. The agricultural and livestock market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy support [36][40] Summaries by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: A-shares showed a shrinking consolidation trend on Monday, with technology growth sectors performing relatively well. The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the medium to long term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. Recommended to buy on dips [5] - Government bonds: The market sentiment continued to improve on Monday, and the yields of government bonds at all maturities fell from previous highs. The central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation, injecting positive sentiment into the bond market. Recommended to hold [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is experiencing a "Golden September" market, with prices rising across the board. The supply of coking coal is affected by factors such as mine maintenance and production cuts. Recommended for range trading [8] - Rebar: The futures price of rebar showed a slightly stronger trend on Monday. The valuation of rebar has slightly increased, and the macro policy and industrial demand are the main driving factors. Recommended for range trading [8] - Glass: The fundamentals of glass are stable, and the market is affected by factors such as coal prices and seasonal demand. The supply of glass is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Recommended to buy on dips [10] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper showed a high-level consolidation trend this week. The demand for copper is affected by high prices, and the supply is affected by factors such as smelter maintenance and imports. The macro factors are expected to have a significant impact on the price of copper. Recommended for range trading [12] - Aluminum: The price of aluminum is expected to continue its high-level consolidation trend. The supply of aluminum is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Recommended for range trading [13] - Nickel: The price of nickel is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of nickel is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as stainless steel production and battery manufacturing. Recommended to sell on rallies [18] - Tin: The price of tin is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of tin is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as semiconductor production and solder manufacturing. Recommended for range trading [18] - Gold and silver: The prices of gold and silver are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The prices of precious metals are affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks. Recommended for range trading [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The price of PVC is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of PVC is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as real estate and exports. Recommended for range trading [23] - Caustic soda: The price of caustic soda is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of caustic soda is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as alumina production and exports. Recommended for range trading [26] - Styrene: The price of styrene is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of styrene is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [27] - Rubber: The price of rubber is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of rubber is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as tire production and exports. Recommended for range trading [29] - Urea: The price of urea is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of urea is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as agriculture and exports. Recommended for range trading [30] - Methanol: The price of methanol is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of methanol is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [31] - Polyolefins: The prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The supply of polyolefins is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading [32] - Soda ash: The price of soda ash is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of soda ash is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as glass production and exports. Recommended for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The prices of cotton and cotton yarn are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The global supply and demand of cotton are improving, but the new cotton production is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices. Recommended for range trading [36] - PTA: The price of PTA is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of PTA is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as polyester production and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [36] - Apples: The price of apples is expected to continue its upward trend. The supply of apples is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with an upward bias [37] - Jujubes: The price of jujubes is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of jujubes is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The price of pigs is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of pigs is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to sell on rallies [40] - Eggs: The price of eggs is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of eggs is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to sell on rallies [42] - Corn: The price of corn is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of corn is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as feed consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading [44] - Soybean meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of soybean meal is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as feed consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [45] - Oils: The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to continue their downward trends. The supply of oils is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to buy after the correction [53]