Market Overview - The market this week was influenced by two main themes: the investigation rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and concerns over the "independence of the Federal Reserve," impacting the dollar and interest rate expectations; and fluctuating geopolitical news related to Iran, leading to volatility in gold and oil prices [1] - The dollar index faced pressure early in the week due to political uncertainty but later strengthened supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for recent rate cuts, aiming for a third consecutive week of gains [1] - Gold prices initially surged to a historical high of $4642.85 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, but later entered a consolidation phase, closing at $4583 per ounce [1] - Silver saw a significant increase, peaking at nearly $93.70 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 30%, although it experienced extreme volatility [1] Non-U.S. Currencies - The "high market trading" led to the Japanese yen falling below the 159 mark against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since July 2024; the euro and pound showed slight weakness while the Australian dollar remained relatively stable [2] - Oil prices were primarily driven by news related to Iran, initially rising due to concerns over internal unrest but later retracing gains as U.S. political statements eased tensions [2] Investment Bank Insights - Lloyds Bank suggested that the Federal Reserve might become a scapegoat for the weak U.S. job market; UBS indicated that concerns over the Fed's independence could lead to a more hawkish stance [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that the Fed would continue to make decisions based on data, unaffected by investigation pressures; Morgan Stanley stated that inflation remains above target, insufficient to support a rate cut in January [5] Major Events - Trump criticized Powell again, claiming he is either incompetent or corrupt, amidst a backdrop of a criminal investigation into Powell, which has drawn support for him from global central bank leaders [6] - The Senate Majority Leader questioned the investigation's legitimacy, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [7] - The December CPI data indicated a strong signal of cooling inflation, leading to increased market bets on early rate cuts, although Fed officials warned against premature easing [8] Corporate Developments - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$505.7 billion (approximately $16 billion) for Q4 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips [24] - Apple and Google reached a potential $5 billion AI partnership, opting for Google's Gemini model over OpenAI, impacting the competitive landscape in AI technology [26] - Tesla announced a shift from a one-time purchase model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature to a subscription model, aiming to create a more stable revenue stream and lower entry barriers for consumers [28]

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has surged over 25% since the beginning of the year, reaching a record high of $91.551 per ounce, making it the second-largest asset globally with a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Silver's price increase began in 2025, with a significant rise from a low range of $28-$32 per ounce at the start of last year, accelerating in the fourth quarter to surpass key price levels of $70, $75, and $80, ultimately reaching a peak of $83.971 per ounce by December 29, 2025 [3]. - The maximum increase in silver prices for 2025 was 196.84%, outperforming gold and becoming a focal point in capital markets [3]. - Currently, silver's market capitalization stands at $5.045 trillion, surpassing major companies like Google and Apple, while gold remains the largest asset at $32.251 trillion [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Price Increase - The ongoing strength in silver prices is attributed to a combination of industrial demand growth and financial attributes, moving beyond traditional monetary and safe-haven characteristics [4]. - Key sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI hardware are driving increased consumption of silver, creating a structural supply-demand gap [4]. - The expectation of continued global liquidity easing and the current gold-silver ratio being above historical averages provide further support for silver's valuation recovery [4]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Market attention is now shifting towards the $100 per ounce mark, with Citigroup predicting that silver will reach this level within the next three months [5]. - Analysts suggest that the bullish market conditions are likely to persist, contingent on geopolitical tensions easing and reduced hedging demand for precious metals later in the year [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of gradual accumulation and diversification, avoiding high-risk positions and instead using a dollar-cost averaging approach [8]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch a new 100-ounce silver futures contract in February 2026 to meet the growing demand from retail investors [8].

研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2026 年 1 月 14 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 研究员：袁正 期货从业证号：F03151476 投资咨询号：Z0023508 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： 2.地缘政治：伊朗局势—①欧盟正在商讨额外对伊制裁措施。②特朗普：已取 消与伊朗官员的所有会晤，伊朗当局将"付出巨大代价"。③万斯定于今晨与国家 安全团队举行会议，主导制定对伊朗的战略。 3.美联储观点：美联储穆萨莱姆称短期内进一步放松政策的理由不多；仍认为 通胀风险将比预期更为持久。 wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 金银 【市场回顾】 1.金银市场: 今天白天，金银再度创出新高。伦敦金将历史高点刷至 4639.723 美元/盎司，伦敦银将历史高点刷至 91.551 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约将历史高点 刷至 1041 元/克，最终收于 1040.62，涨幅 ...

1月14日，近期白银市场的疯狂表现并非偶然，而是由前所未有的投资需求与工业刚需共同驱动的必然 结果。随着现货白银价格站稳86美元/盎司上方，市场对于白银这一"穷人的黄金"表现出了极高的配置 热情。为了顺应这一趋势，芝商所宣布推出100盎司白银期货合约。FPG财盛国际表示，这一针对零售 端的小额化金融创新，不仅降低了入场门槛，更在能源转型与地缘动荡背景下，为普通投资者提供了高 效对冲风险的工具。 在实物供应方面，供需失衡的矛盾正日益尖锐。FPG财盛国际分析表示，过去五年工业领域的爆发式需 求已严重消耗了白银的地面库存，导致供应链处于极度脆弱的状态。目前现货溢价显著，现货价格较3 月期货高出约3美元，这一数据Fact清晰地反映出市场对实物白银"即时占有"的紧迫感。FPG财盛国际表 示，芝商所此次选择现金结算模式而非实物交割，正是为了避开当前紧张的物流与交割压力，让投资者 能够纯粹地参与价格波动的红利。 从历史数据看，小微型衍生品的爆发往往是牛市进入深水区的标志。FPG财盛国际表示，2025年微型金 银期货日均交易量分别达到30.1万手和4.8万手，且2025年初上线的1盎司金合约已累计成交超600万手， 这种指数 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices are experiencing upward momentum due to geopolitical concerns and market sentiment, with the Shanghai silver premium expanding to 2600 yuan per kilogram [3] - On January 14, the closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 22,763 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 8.03% in daily trading volume [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was reported at 22,920 yuan per kilogram, showing a premium of 157 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [1] Group 2 - The U.S. core CPI inflation has slowed down, but expectations for a rate cut in January have diminished significantly, indicating a cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve [2][3] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract on February 9, which may impact trading dynamics in the silver market [2] - The ADP weekly employment report indicates that private sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, reflecting ongoing labor market strength [1]

1月14日，现货白银（伦敦银现）一口气突破90美元/盎司和91美元/盎司两个重要整数关口。截至北京时间16：30分（下同），最高触及91.531 美元/盎司。 拉长时间线，今年以来，白银最高涨幅已经达到28%。如果从2025年算起，白银的涨幅更是超过210%。 巨大的涨幅，让白银投资者赚得盆满钵满。日前，广州一家在港股上市的物业公司公告称，该公司已经清仓白银，获利2.47亿元。 21世经济报道记者 叶麦穗 白银成为2026年开年"最靓的仔"。 投资6年大赚2.47亿元 1月12日晚间，港股上市公司祈福生活服务公告称，已下单交易28万安士（安士即盎司，后文统一为盎司）银条，总代价约1.62亿元，预计收 益1.04亿元；该公司此前于1月7日下达40万盎司银条出售指令，1月9日公告完成交易并获利1.43亿元。 祈福生活服务的银投资始于2020年。 芝商所推出100盎司白银期货合约 如今的白银，可以说是投资界的"扛把子"。 2020年2月底，公司通过香港渣打银行分批次购入80万盎司银条，累计斥资1.03亿元，折算下来平均成本仅为每盎司128.75元。 不过投资并不是一帆风顺，2021年，公司持有的银条公允价值出现约2 ...

1月14日，沪银期货强势上涨，主力合约现报22836.00元/吨，涨幅达8.38%。 机构观点 东吴期货：决定贵金属，尤其是白银中长期走势的关键，不再是交易所的单一措施，而是实物结构性短 缺与全球货币政策之间综合作用下的结果。因此，贵金属在近期消化掉彭博调参的影响后预计仍将保持 上行趋势。后续重点关注美联储主席人选，中东以色列和伊朗可能的冲突变化，南美及格陵兰岛的地缘 影响等。 华联期货：白银供应端增长显著乏力，而需求端有明显增量，光伏、新能源汽车、AI数据中心的发展 对白银需求构成刚性支撑，白银市场连续第五年处于供应短缺状态。此外，全球白银ETF持续流入， LBMA库存剔除ETF后几无缓冲，全球可交割库存处于历史低位。即将落地的232调查结果可能影响全 球贸易流向和情绪，恶化现货短缺。因此，在战略资源、金融属性和工业属性的三重驱动下，白银中长 期走势预计保持强劲。操作上建议AG2604多单中期持有。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME）当地时间12日发布通知，将改变黄金、白银、铂金和钯金合约的保证金设 定方式，由此前以固定美元金额为主，改为按合约名义价值的一定比例计算。 芝商所周二宣布，计划于2026年2月9日推出1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.6% in 2026, according to the World Bank. The US GDP growth rate is projected to reach 2.2%, while the eurozone and Japan's economic growth rates are expected to slow down to 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. The US employment market remains weak, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by about 50bps in 2026. The price of oil is predicted to decline in 2026 due to an oversupply in the global market, and the price of coal may perform better than in 2025. Many metal futures prices have reached record highs, and institutions are still bullish on gold. The Chinese government is promoting the development of circular economy and industrial internet platforms, and taking measures to boost the service industry and consumption [10][19][31] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, and the non-manufacturing PMI for business activity was 50.2%. In November 2025, the monthly social financing scale was 2488.8 billion yuan, and the新增 RMB loans by financial institutions were 390 billion yuan. In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year. In November 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -2.6%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.0%. In November 2025, the monthly export amount increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and the monthly import amount increased by 1.9% year-on-year [1] Commodity Investment Reference - **Comprehensive**: The trading and intraday closing transaction fees for certain lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted, and trading volume limits will be imposed. On January 13, 2026, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 30 had negative basis. China will continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the US and South Korea for 5 years. The Fed's Williams believes the current economic situation is favorable, with no strong pressure for interest rate adjustments. The CME Group plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract in February [2][3] - **Metals**: Since the beginning of 2026, the futures prices of many metal varieties have reached record highs. The price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract has exceeded 25,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai copper has exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton. Many gold industry listed companies expect significant performance growth in 2025. The copper inventory in LME registered warehouses has decreased by 22%, and the copper inventory in US COMEX warehouses has increased by 444% in the past 12 months. The Chilean National Mining Association expects the copper price to be at $4.5 per pound in 2026 [5][6][7] - **Coking Coal, Steel, and Minerals**: Coking coal options will be listed on the DCE on January 16, 2026. S&P predicts that the upstream of China's commodity industry will perform better than the downstream. CITIC Securities believes that the coal price in 2026 may be better than in 2025 [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Venezuela's state oil company has restarted oil wells to increase production. The EIA predicts that oil prices will decline in 2026 due to oversupply, and global oil inventories will continue to increase until 2027. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $56 per barrel in 2026, a 19% decrease from 2025. The EIA also provides forecasts for US natural gas and oil production and demand [10][11][12] - **Agricultural Products**: As of January 11, 2026, the EU's barley exports in the 2025/26 season reached 5.4 million tons, and soft wheat exports were 11.6 million tons. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects the country's soybean, corn, and soybean meal exports in January 2026 to reach 3.73 million tons, 3.27 million tons, and 1.82 million tons respectively [13] Financial News Compilation - **Open Market**: On January 13, 2026, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 342.4 billion yuan [14] - **Important News and Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate the "15th Five-Year" plan for circular economy development. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes that enterprises should participate in industry rule-making and resist "involution". The US has relaxed the export regulations of NVIDIA's H200 chips to China. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms. Eight departments have introduced measures to promote the high-quality development of the elderly care service and silver economy. The Shanghai government has issued measures to promote the coordinated development of the service industry and consumption. Many convertible bonds will be redeemed early. The World Bank has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%. Japanese government bonds have been sold off due to concerns about fiscal deterioration. The US budget deficit in December 2025 reached a record high. The US has taken a series of actions regarding Iran. The investigation of the Fed's Chairman Powell continues to ferment. Trump has made a series of statements on economic and political issues [16][17][19] - **Bond Market Summary**: Affected by the rise in capital prices, the yields of interest rate bonds have shown a differentiated trend, and the bond market is in a volatile pattern. The prices of some Vanke bonds have risen, while others have fallen. The CSI Convertible Bond Index has declined. The money market interest rates have mostly risen. The yields of European and US bonds have shown different trends [23][24][25] - **Foreign Exchange Market Express**: The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9765 on January 13, 2026, down 23 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.28%, and most non-US currencies fell [29] - **Research Report Highlights**: CICC predicts that US inflation may experience compensatory growth in December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026. CITIC Securities believes that the US employment market is still weak, and the Fed may cut interest rates by about 50bps in 2026. CITIC Construction Investment reports that the primary market issuance of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds increased in December 2025, and the secondary market indices rose. Xingzheng Fixed Income suggests focusing on the secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds of certain regional city and rural commercial banks. S&P believes that China's local governments may continue to issue large-scale debt in the next one or two years, and interest rate cuts can relieve some debt pressure. Citi warns that the continuous issuance of short-term bonds in Europe may threaten the independence of central banks [30][31][32] - **Today's Reminder**: On January 14, 2026, 178 bonds will be listed, 126 bonds will be issued, 90 bonds will make payments, and 167 bonds will pay principal and interest [33][34] Stock Market Important News - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.9% to 26,848.47 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose slightly by 0.11%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.71%. Pharmaceutical stocks generally rose, while gold and non-ferrous metals were active. Commercial aerospace and brain-computer interface concept stocks declined. Zhaoyi Innovation's H shares rose more than 37% on the first day of listing. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$1.296 billion. The ETF managed by Huaxia Fund exceeded 1 trillion yuan, becoming the first "trillion-level" ETF manager in China [35]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 99.237, while spot silver opened at $86.90/oz and is currently around $88.69/oz, indicating a rise in silver prices due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - On January 13, the dollar index rose by 0.29% to close at 99.186, while spot silver increased by 2.06% to $86.91/oz, reaching a historical high of $89.12 before retreating [1] - The upcoming economic data to watch includes the US November retail sales month-on-month and the November PPI data [1] Group 2 - As of January 13, silver ETF holdings decreased by 26.79 tons to 16,321.16 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The US CPI growth rate remained stable in December, with core CPI slightly below expectations, leading to comments from Trump advocating for significant interest rate cuts by Powell [2] - The ADP weekly employment report indicates that private sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending December 20, 2025 [3] Group 3 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract on February 9 [5] - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $85.362, hitting a low of $83.348, and then rising to a high of $89.124 before closing at $86.891 [6]

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to historic highs driven by unprecedented investment demand, prompting CME Group to launch a new 100-ounce silver futures contract aimed at retail traders [1] - The new silver futures contract will not involve physical delivery but will be cash-settled, providing a more flexible and cost-effective way for global clients to capture silver opportunities [2] - The launch of this new product comes at a time when demand for physical silver bars remains exceptionally high, with current spot silver prices exceeding $87 per ounce and March silver futures trading around $83 per ounce [2] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the silver supply chain remains extremely fragile due to record industrial demand depleting ground inventories over the past five years, leading to competition between industrial users and investment demand for physical supply [3] - The introduction of CME's cash-settled product alleviates concerns regarding delivery for investors, and analysts expect continued growth in demand for hard assets like gold and silver amid increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [4] - Some analysts believe that silver prices could rise to $100 per ounce as they hover near historic highs, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [4]