报告导读： 基于国泰海通"全天候"大类资产配置框架，我们认为在全球秩序加速重构、地 缘政治局势趋势性恶化的背景下，安全再次成了最为稀缺的资源，而黄金则是对抗这种不 确定性的具象化。建议 3 月超配 AH 股、黄金、原油与工业商品。 我们构建了由"战略性资产配置（ SAA ）—战术性资产配置（ TAA ）—重大事件审议调整"构成的"全天候"大类资产配置框架，以作为投资决策的整体指 引。 基于该框架，我们认为在全球秩序加速重构、地缘政治局势趋势性恶化的背景下，安全再次成了最为稀缺的资源，而黄金则是对抗这种不确定性的具象 化。建议 3 月超配 AH 股、黄金、原油与工业商品。 建议 2026 年 3 月权益配置权重为 45.00% ：超配 A 股（ 10.00% ），超配港股（ 10.00% ），标配美股（ 15.00% ），标配欧股（ 5.00% ），标配 日股（ 5.00% ）。权益资产中，多重因素支持中国权益表现，（ 1 ）建议超配 A 股。 2026 年是十五五开局之年，预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政 策有望更加积极。人民币稳定升值，中国货币政策稳中趋松。地产支持与内需消费刺激政策持续出台，资本市场改革 ...

春节期间，人民币汇率走出强势拉升行情。2月21日，人民币汇率稳守6.89区间；2月19日，离岸人民币 最低触及6.88，在岸人民币同步升至6.885，双双刷新2023年4月以来高点。进入2月以来，人民币汇率升 值幅度接近1.3%。 尽管春节长假期间国内股市、债市、汇市三大市场均不开市，但是人民币汇率大涨仍是利好。 "人民币汇率大涨，直白说就是人民币国际购买力变强。假期内换外汇、出境游、留学缴费、海淘代购 金额能省一笔；进口奶粉、化妆品、汽车、燃油成本下降，物价更稳。而从更宏观的层面来说，人民币 这波走强，源于经济预期向好、外资持续流入、贸易支撑有力，市场对人民币资产信心大增。汇率稳、 资产稳，对股市、债市都是正面支撑。"嘉盛集团外汇市场专家陈恪对《华夏时报》记者表示。 利好股债汇三市 人民币在春节期间升值背后主要受美元指数走弱、美联储降息预期升温、国内经济稳步恢复以及外贸顺 差保持高位四因素推动。 从数据上看，截至今年1月末，我国外汇储备规模达到33991亿美元，环比增加412亿美元，连续六个月 稳定在3.3万亿元以上；1月银行结汇规模达到2.04万亿元，同样也创下历史新高。 "人民币为什么会在春节前后突然涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by factors such as a weakening dollar index, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, steady recovery of the domestic economy, and sustained high trade surpluses [1] Group 1: RMB Appreciation and Market Impact - The RMB has appreciated approximately 1.3% since early February, breaking the 6.89 mark and reaching a three-year high [1] - Analysts from Huatai Securities and Galaxy Securities predict a prolonged appreciation cycle for the RMB, with the current phase marking the beginning of this trend [1][2] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, particularly benefiting the A-share and H-share markets [2] Group 2: Equity Market Insights - The equity market is anticipated to perform well during the RMB appreciation cycle, with Hong Kong stocks being the primary beneficiaries due to higher foreign capital participation [2][4] - A-share market performance is expected to be more differentiated, with growth-oriented sectors likely to outperform [2][3] - Key sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation include real estate, advanced manufacturing, and non-bank financials, which are expected to see improved market risk preferences [2][3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Opportunities - Industries with high foreign debt exposure, such as motorcycles, automotive parts, and photovoltaic equipment, will benefit from reduced debt pressure and exchange rate gains [2][3] - Sectors with high import dependency, like electronic chemicals and steel raw materials, will see improved profit margins due to lower costs from RMB appreciation [2][3] - The technology sector, particularly in Hong Kong, is expected to experience a rebound as foreign capital flows increase [4] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing mixed influences from RMB appreciation, with downward pressure on short-term yields and upward pressure on long-term yields due to increased risk appetite in the equity market [5] - Analysts predict that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.7% to 2.1% [5] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is showing significant differentiation, with industrial metals like copper being highlighted as having strong upward potential [6] - Other commodities lack clear trends, and their future performance will depend on the recovery of domestic demand [6] Group 6: Strategic Asset Allocation - Analysts recommend focusing on high-probability sectors during the current weak appreciation phase of the RMB, emphasizing growth-oriented industries such as technology and communication [7][9] - Key investment themes include sectors benefiting from foreign capital inflows, cost improvements, and holding quality RMB-denominated assets like A-shares and government bonds [9]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity crisis is intensifying market volatility, accelerating the repricing of major asset classes, while global equities and commodities may still present performance opportunities. The recommendation is to overweight AH shares, US stocks, crude oil, and industrial commodities in February [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation Framework - The company has developed an "all-weather" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions [2]. - SAA aims to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio robustness, while TAA uses quantitative methods to identify assets with superior short-term risk-return characteristics and adjusts portfolio weights accordingly [2]. - The final step involves subjective review of major events to calibrate and supplement quantitative results [2]. Group 2: Equity Asset Recommendations - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, recommending an overweight in A/H shares. The upcoming economic work conference and the expectation of further expansion in the broad deficit suggest a more proactive economic policy [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, and the stable appreciation of the RMB provides favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026, enhancing market risk appetite [3]. - The "Goldilocks" scenario is emerging, favoring US stock performance, with the US economy showing resilience despite marginal cooling, and corporate earnings expectations potentially supporting upward movement in US stock indices [3]. Group 3: Bond Asset Recommendations - The recommended bond allocation weight for February 2026 is 35.00%, including long-term and short-term government bonds [4]. - Structural monetary policy may strengthen the allocation to government bonds, as the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply remains a reality, but the trend of rising risk appetite may lead to a rebalancing of asset allocations [4]. - The US economy is cooling but not stalling, with a moderate decline in the labor market and favorable conditions for reducing inflationary pressures, suggesting a potential decline in US Treasury yields [4]. Group 4: Commodity Asset Recommendations - The recommended commodity allocation weight for February 2026 is 12.50%, with an overweight in crude oil and industrial commodities [5]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is intensifying, suggesting an overweight in crude oil, as global demand remains relatively weak, and OPEC+ has decided to continue production cuts [5]. - Demand expectations for industrial commodities are being revised upward, with structural demand driven by construction, electric grids, and electric vehicles, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance for industrial metals like copper [5].

Group 1: Equity Market Insights - The core view is bullish on Chinese A/H shares due to accelerated economic transformation and increased asset management demand driven by lower risk-free rates [2] - The US stock market is expected to see upward revisions in earnings forecasts by 2026, supported by AI industry growth and increased capital expenditures from tech companies [2] - The Eurozone economy is projected to recover moderately by 2026, benefiting from fiscal spending and supply chain adjustments [2] - Japan's economy is improving post-deflation, with a high probability of continued fiscal and monetary easing [2] - India's economic growth expectations have been downgraded, leading to a recommendation for underweighting Indian stocks [2] Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - Chinese government bond rates are expected to rise slightly due to a stable yet easing monetary policy and positive fiscal policy orientation [3] - The US Treasury yields are anticipated to decline moderately as inflation expectations decrease and economic growth stabilizes [3] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Long-term bullish outlook on gold due to the diversification of global central bank reserves and weakening dollar credit [4] - Oil prices are under pressure from oversupply, exacerbated by OPEC+ production increases and rising US shale oil output [4] - Copper prices are supported by structural demand driven by AI infrastructure and grid upgrades, despite declining ore grades and longer development cycles [4] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - A weak dollar is expected to persist, with potential for a temporary rebound due to geopolitical factors and policy expectations in Europe and Japan [5] - The Chinese yuan is projected to remain stable with a slight upward trend, supported by steady domestic economic momentum and resilient exports [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that rising geopolitical uncertainties may temporarily increase volatility in global equity markets, while Chinese equity assets and gold may still present performance opportunities. It recommends increasing holdings in AH shares and gold in October, while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) - The framework consists of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments, aimed at guiding investment decisions [1]. - SAA is designed to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio robustness [1]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The report is optimistic about Chinese equities, recommending an equity allocation weight of 41.25% for October, with overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2]. - The report indicates that geopolitical uncertainties may create buying opportunities in the Chinese market, suggesting that the current market adjustments are not the end of the upward trend [2]. Group 3: Bond Allocation - The report maintains a neutral stance on bonds, recommending a bond allocation weight of 45% for October, with standard allocations to both long-term and short-term government bonds [3]. - It notes that the imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market [3]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The report expresses a neutral to optimistic view on commodities, recommending a commodity allocation weight of 13.75% for October, with an overweight position in gold [3]. - It highlights that gold prices have recently surged past key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3].

Group 1 - The report suggests an increase in allocation to Chinese equity assets and gold, while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds due to rising geopolitical uncertainties and potential market volatility [1][5]. - The recommended equity allocation weight is 41.25%, with specific allocations to A-shares (8.75%), Hong Kong stocks (8.75%), US stocks (15.00%), European stocks (2.75%), Japanese stocks (3.25%), and Indian stocks (2.75%) [5][9]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the performance of Chinese A/H shares, viewing current market adjustments as buying opportunities [5][9]. Group 2 - The bond allocation is suggested to be 45%, with standard allocations to long-term and short-term government bonds in both domestic and US markets [5][9]. - The report indicates a neutral to slightly optimistic view on commodities, recommending a 13.75% allocation, with a focus on gold (10%) and a lower allocation to oil (1.25%) [5][9]. - Gold prices are expected to remain strong, having recently surpassed key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [5][9].