领跑汽车上调 2025 年销量指引至 58-65 万台，目标 2026 年冲击百万 台销量，并通过推出 B 级、A 系列（10 万元以内小型车）、D 系列（高 端 SUV，20 万元以内）等车型，实现产品线全覆盖。 2025 年一、二季度收入分别为 100 亿元和 142 亿元，单车均价分别为 11.4 万元和 10.6 万元。尽管二季度毛利率因价格调整略有下降（一季 度 14.9%，二季度 13.6%），但通过费用管控实现扭亏为盈，并预计 全年整车毛利率维持在 14-15%之间。 公司预计 2025 年实现收入 600 多亿元（对应 60 多万辆销量），归母 净利润 9.4 亿元。2026 年销量目标百万辆，预计收入达千亿级别，归 母净利润预计 44-50 亿元。 领跑汽车通过 2023 年推出 C11 SUV，成功将品牌定位从中低端市场提 升至 15 万元左右的中高端市场，并抓住小型电动车和增程式电动车的 市场机遇。 领跑汽车通过全域自研和平台化能力有效控制成本，例如，利用创始团 队在大华科技的技术积累，自主开发零部件，并采用多供应商比价策略。 Q&A 零跑汽车 20250825 摘要 领跑汽车在 202 ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 胡惠民 S0350525030004 huhm@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 08 月 21 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) [Table_Title] 2025Q2 净利转正，规模提振加速盈利释放 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/08/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 零跑汽车 | 21.9% | 18.2% | 244.3% | | 恒生指数 | 1.4% | 6.3% | 43.7% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/08/20 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 73.50 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | | | 18.64-76.30 | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 98,267.01 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | 82,056.42 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 133,696.61 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 111,641.3 ...

证券研究报告 零跑汽车 (9863 HK) 港股通 销量连创新高，首次半年度盈利 2025 年 8 月 21 日│中国香港 乘用车 公司发布半年报，25H1 营收 242.50 亿元（yoy+174.15%），归母净利 0.33 亿元（同比转正），扣非净利-0.58 亿元（yoy-97.47%）；Q2 营收 142.30 亿元（yoy+165.48%、qoq+42.01%），归母净利+1.63 亿元（24Q2 和 25Q1 分别为-12.00/-1.30 亿）。考虑到公司销量强力持续向上&看好 ABCD 四大 平台车型竞争力&海外市场拓展加速&战略合作和零部件业务等增厚业绩， 我们预计公司 25-27 年营收将保持高速增长并逐步释放盈利弹性，我们本次 上调公司盈利预测并上调目标价。维持买入评级。 收入：销量连创新高&结构优化，B/C 平台销量占比提升 1）25Q2 公司实现销量 13.4 万辆，同环比+152%/+53%，7 月销量再次新 高破 5 万，连续 5 个月位列新势力销冠；2）销量结构持续优化，25Q2 B/C 平台销量占比 57.6%/24.4%，价格较低的 T03 占比 18.0%，同环比-7. ...

Core Insights - Leap Motor reported a significant financial performance for the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 24.25 billion yuan, a gross margin of 14.1%, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, making it the second Chinese new energy vehicle company to achieve semi-annual profitability after Li Auto [2] - The company raised its annual sales target from 500,000-600,000 units to 580,000-650,000 units and set a goal to challenge 1 million units in 2026 [2][6] Financial Performance - The delivery volume reached 221,664 units, a year-on-year increase of 155.7% - Revenue increased by 174% year-on-year to 24.25 billion yuan - Gross margin rose to 14.1%, marking a historical high for the company in the first half of the year - Operating cash flow and free cash flow were both positive, with cash reserves amounting to 29.58 billion yuan, indicating strong financial health [2][3] Research and Development - R&D expenditure for the first half of the year reached 1.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, with a doubling of the scale and computational resources of the intelligent driving team [3] - The company aims to leverage its strong cash flow and reserves to support future R&D and global expansion [3] Profitability Drivers - Scale effects are fundamental to Leap Motor's profitability, with main models like C10 and C11 achieving significant sales milestones - Over 65% of core components are self-developed, enhancing cost structure and competitive differentiation [5] - The company reported nearly 1.1 billion yuan in revenue from non-automotive sales, contributing to overall revenue growth [5] Sales and Market Strategy - The annual sales target has been adjusted to 580,000-650,000 units, with a goal of reaching 1 million units by 2026 - The product matrix will continue to expand with new models launching in the coming months [6] - The company plans to establish a localized production base in Europe by the end of 2026 [8] International Expansion - Leap Motor is pursuing international growth through a "reverse joint venture" model, aiming to leverage partnerships for faster development in global markets - As of mid-2025, the company has established over 600 outlets in approximately 30 global markets, with Europe contributing 1.85 billion yuan in revenue [8]

Core Viewpoint - The new Leapmotor C11 electric version starts at 149,800 yuan, which is a 3,000 yuan price reduction compared to the previous version while adding features; the range-extended version also starts at 149,800 yuan, with a 1,000 yuan price increase due to added features [1] Group 1: Product Features and Enhancements - The new C11 features a refreshed exterior and interior design, including a split-type lighting system that improves brightness by 21%, and new 20-inch wheels [1] - Interior upgrades include a self-developed 16,000 nit high-brightness AR HUD, a larger 17.3-inch central control screen, upgraded Nappa leather, and an intelligent fragrance system, enhancing the overall passenger experience [1] - The vehicle's performance is boosted by an 800V high-voltage SiC four-in-one intelligent electric drive system and a one-box braking system for improved safety and control [1] Group 2: Sales and Market Strategy - The new C11 is expected to maintain strong monthly sales, aiming for over 50,000 units, driven by its youthful design and enhanced configurations [1] - The B01 model, targeting young consumers with high-quality smart sedan features, is set to launch in late July, indicating a competitive edge in the segmented market [1] Group 3: Future Growth and Expansion - The B05 model is scheduled for release in Q4 2025, with plans for new vehicles on A and D platforms in 2026 [2] - A collaboration with Stellantis for a factory project in Malaysia has commenced, with local production in Europe expected to start mid-2026, which will help avoid tariffs and enhance overseas gross margins [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company expects to achieve a gross margin of over 10% for the year, driven by the transition to the LEAP 3.5 architecture and ongoing cost reductions from suppliers [1] - The overseas sales target is set at 50,000 to 60,000 units, with over 17,000 units sold from January to May, indicating accelerated international expansion and a potential profitability turning point next year [1] Group 2 - New models include the B01, which has begun large-scale deliveries targeting the young market, and the B05, set to launch in Q4 [2] - The 2026 model plan includes new vehicles on the A and D platforms, with the A platform resembling domestic A0-class models and the D platform being C or C+ class models, including at least three models on the C platform [2] Group 3 - Overseas factories are starting operations, with a collaboration project with Stellantis in Malaysia expected to yield results by the end of the year, and a European project anticipated to achieve localized production by mid-2026, enhancing overseas gross margins [3] Group 4 - Strategic cooperation includes a carbon credit transfer agreement with Stellantis to stabilize profit contributions, and partnerships for new product development aimed at increasing overall gross margins [4] - The company has additional component supply agreements beyond Stellantis and FAW, covering batteries, electric drives, and electronic controls [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 81.15 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a strong new car cycle in 2025, with a sales target of 500,000 to 600,000 units for the year, and aims to achieve profitability [2][13][15]. - The company has reported a significant year-on-year sales increase of 161% for the first five months of 2025, reaching 173,658 units [2][15]. - The gross margin has reached historical highs of 13.3% in Q4 2024 and 14.9% in Q1 2025, driven by scale effects, sales structure optimization, and cost management [2][14][15]. Summary by Sections Sales and Growth - The company aims for annual sales of 500,000 to 600,000 units and has achieved a cumulative sales increase of 161% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025 [2][15]. - The company is launching new models across four platforms (A, B, C, D) to support sales growth, with the B platform expected to introduce three new models in 2025 [2][16][18]. Channel Expansion and Operations - The company is expanding its channel network with a focus on efficiency and profitability for dealers, achieving a channel profitability rate of over 80% in 2024 [3][17]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has 756 sales outlets covering 279 cities, with plans to exceed 1,000 outlets by the end of the year [3][17]. International Expansion and Strategic Partnerships - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, with a target of over 550 overseas channels and an export goal of 50,000 to 60,000 units in 2025 [4][20]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed, including collaborations with Stellantis and Peugeot Citroën, which are expected to contribute to revenue and gross margin [4][22][25]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 68.71 billion, RMB 91.40 billion, and RMB 116.66 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive in 2025 [5][23]. - The company is assigned a price-to-sales (PS) target of 1.5 times for 2025, reflecting a premium valuation due to its strong new car cycle and strategic initiatives [5][23].

Summary of Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing - **Market Focus**: Mid- to high-end segments of China's NEV market, with a price range of Rmb150,000-300,000 [9] Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Price Competition and Sales Strategy - Management acknowledges the escalation of price competition as largely expected, though it occurred sooner than anticipated by some investors [1][2] - Leapmotor has implemented additional discounts of Rmb2,000-3,000 on models C16 and C11 to expedite inventory clearance, with no further price cuts expected [1][2] - The company aims for Q2 2025 sales of 130,000-140,000 units and a full-year target of 500,000-600,000 units, with a margin of 10-11% [2] Product Launches and Production Plans - Upcoming product launches include: - Sedan B10 in June/July 2025 - Hatchback B05 in October/November 2025 - Facelifts for models C10, C16, and C11 in May, June, and July 2025, respectively [2] - Leapmotor plans to localize production in Europe by mid-2026, focusing on A & B platform models for local manufacturing [1][3] International Market Expansion - The company targets an export volume of 50,000-60,000 units in 2025, with Europe expected to contribute two-thirds of this volume [3] - Key growth drivers for the overseas market include: - Launch of B10 featuring both BEV and EREV powertrains - Expansion of retail stores from 450 to 550, with European stores increasing from 350 to 450 [3] - Collaboration with Stellantis for corporate car programs in Europe [3] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Leapmotor's stock is currently trading at 1.1x 2025E P/S, compared to 1.3x for Li Auto, 0.6x for Nio, and 1.8x for XPeng [4] - The company has a market capitalization of HK$80.1 billion (approximately US$10.2 billion) [5] - Revenue projections show significant growth from Rmb12.4 billion in 2022 to Rmb47.2 billion in 2025E [7] Risks and Challenges - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand, moderating competition due to favorable policies, and faster execution in overseas markets [10] - Downside risks involve weaker-than-expected demand, increased competition, and potential reductions in government subsidies for NEVs [11] - The new energy vehicle sector faces risks such as changes in government policies, declining subsidies, new market entrants, and potential overcapacity in the battery industry [12] Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - The current 12-month rating for Leapmotor is "Sell" with a price target of HK$25.00, indicating a forecast stock return of -56.1% [5][8] - The stock price as of May 27, 2025, is HK$56.90, with a 52-week range of HK$65.80-19.54 [5] Conclusion Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology is navigating a competitive landscape in the EV market with strategic pricing, product launches, and international expansion plans. However, the company faces significant risks that could impact its growth trajectory and financial performance.

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Leap Motor reported revenue of 10.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 187% [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was -130 million, showing a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] - The overall gross margin reached a historical high of 14.9%, a substantial improvement from -1.4% in Q1 2024, driven by increased sales, cost management, and product optimization [1] Group 2: Research and Development - Leap Motor achieved a high-efficiency self-research model, developing an auxiliary driving solution based on Qualcomm 8650 within six months [1] - The company’s self-developed end-to-end auxiliary driving system, combined with Qualcomm 8650 chips and Hesai LiDAR, will support upcoming features like urban memory commuting and urban NOA [1] Group 3: Market Expansion - From January to April 2025, Leap Motor exported 13,632 units, making it the leading new car manufacturer in terms of export volume [2] - As of March 2025, Leap Motor has established over 500 sales and after-sales service points overseas, with more than 450 in Europe and nearly 50 in the Asia-Pacific region [2] - The Malaysian factory is expected to start local assembly of the C10 model by the end of 2025, while the European factory aims for local production in 2026 [2] Group 4: Product Planning and Outlook - The B10 model was launched on April 10, 2025, with over 10,000 units delivered; additional models B01 and B05 are set to be released in the second half of the year [2] - For 2025, the company anticipates total deliveries of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, with a gross margin of 10-12%, aiming for breakeven [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 59.6 billion, 83.1 billion, and 101.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 85%, 40%, and 22% [2]

Group 1 - The company reported a total sales volume of 87,600 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 162.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.6% [1] - Total revenue reached 10.02 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 187.4% year-on-year, but down 25.6% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin improved to 14.9%, an increase of 16.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, despite a decline in sales volume [1] Group 2 - The company is focusing on cost reduction and strategic partnerships to enhance gross margins, with a notable collaboration with China FAW Group to develop new energy vehicles and components [1] - The B10 model, the company's first intelligent vehicle, received over 30,000 orders within 48 hours of its launch, indicating strong market demand [2] - The company aims to achieve total sales exceeding 500,000 vehicles in 2025, driven by the launch of new models such as B01 and B05 [2] Group 3 - The company is recognized as a quality new energy vehicle manufacturer, with a focus on cost-effective models priced mainly between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 62.6 billion, 81.4 billion, and 99.9 billion yuan respectively, alongside increased net profit estimates [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its growth potential and market positioning [3]