证 券 研 究 报 告 零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年四季报点评 强推（维持） 25Q4 盈利创新高，新车+出海经营稳步向上 目标价：61.68 港元 事项： ❖ 零跑汽车发布 2025 年四季报，4Q25 实现营收 210 亿元，同比+56%，环比 +8.1%；净利润 3.6 亿元，同比+2.8 亿元，环比+2.1 亿元。2025 年全年实现营 收 647 亿元、同比+1.0 倍；净利润 5.4 亿元，同比+34 亿元。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 64,732 | 110,305 | 135,318 | 138,863 | | 同比增速(%) | 101.3% | 70.4% | 22.7% | 2.6% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 538 | 5,140 | 7,520 | 8,522 | | 同比增速(%) | 119.1% | 854.7% | 46.3% | 13.3 ...

"富士康"模式能否助力中国 车出海 出品|虎嗅汽车组 作者|杨杰 头图|视觉中国 当关税大棒砸碎旧世界的玻璃屋顶，曾经在汽车行业彼此竞争的对手，正在成为彼此活下去的选项之一。 本月初，彭博社一则报道引发行业关注：据知情人士透露，奔驰正与中国车企长城汽车商讨共享南非东伦 敦工厂的可能性，长城代表已向南非贸易、工业与竞争部提交提案。 不过，经虎嗅与双方核实，这一说法并未得到证实。长城汽车方面明确表示，并无相关合作洽谈；奔驰方 面同样予以否认。 抛开这起暂未得到证实的谈判传闻，彭博社报道所揭示的行业趋势却是真实的—— 那个"汽车品牌绝不与竞 争对手共享核心资产"的固有观念，正在被时代撬动。 这背后，站着两股正在重塑全球汽车业的力量：一是美国关税大棒挥舞下被迫重绘的贸易版图，二是中国 车企从"产品出海"到"产能整合"的范式跃迁。那么，面对全球市场的不稳定冲击，中国车企又将何去何 从，本期《车圈脉动》Vol.23带你解密。 导火索：关税制造出 的"畸形共生" 美国前总统特朗普去年8月对南非商品加征30%关税，直接击穿了奔驰东伦敦工厂的盈利逻辑。尽管美国最 高法院今年2月暂停了这一政策，但特朗普政府计划从本月起对全球输美 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q4 performance of the company met expectations, with a strong product cycle. The company achieved a total revenue of 21.03 billion yuan in Q4, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 360 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 136.9% [8] - The company has launched new models, including the Leaping LAFA5, which contributed to a total delivery of 180,000 vehicles by the end of 2025. The overall average selling price (ASP) for Q4 was 105,000 yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4% [8] - The gross margin for Q4 was 15.0%, reflecting a year-on-year improvement due to economies of scale and effective cost control [8] - The company has expanded its sales and service network to cover 295 cities with 950 locations by the end of 2025, and has established over 900 international sales and service points [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 32,164 million yuan, 2025A: 64,732 million yuan, 2026E: 109,932 million yuan, 2027E: 130,556 million yuan, and 2028E: 139,122 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 92.06%, 101.25%, 69.83%, 18.76%, and 6.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be (2,820.80) million yuan in 2024A, 538.39 million yuan in 2025A, 2,618.62 million yuan in 2026E, 4,504.42 million yuan in 2027E, and 6,938.15 million yuan in 2028E, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.10%, 119.09%, 386.38%, 72.01%, and 54.03% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be (1.98) yuan in 2024A, 0.38 yuan in 2025A, 1.84 yuan in 2026E, 3.17 yuan in 2027E, and 4.88 yuan in 2028E [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be (19.78) in 2024A, 103.64 in 2025A, 21.31 in 2026E, 12.39 in 2027E, and 8.04 in 2028E [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a total delivery of 596,905 vehicles, representing a 103% increase year-over-year, marking two consecutive years of doubled deliveries [5][9] - The net profit for 2025 was CNY 540 million, with a gross profit margin of 14.5%, up by 6.1% from 8.4% in 2024 [6][8] - Total revenue exceeded CNY 64 billion, reflecting a 101.3% increase compared to the previous year [8] - Cash flow from operations surpassed CNY 12 billion, an increase of CNY 4.15 billion from 2024 [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that it is the only startup EV company in China with monthly sales exceeding 70,000 units [5] - The C10 model achieved total sales of over 200,000 units within 18 months, while the B-series models approached 200,000 units by the end of February 2026 [9][10] - The B10 model launched in April 2025 won 18 awards within a month of its release, indicating strong market reception [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - By the end of 2025, the company had established a sales and service network covering 259 cities, an increase of 31 cities from the previous year [17] - The total export volume reached 100,000 units, with the company ranking second in passenger car exports in Q4 2025 [20][21] - The company has expanded its international presence, with 900 sales and service outlets established globally, including over 800 in Europe [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its in-house production capabilities to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations [26][27] - Localization of production is a strategic focus, with plans for a production facility in Spain for the B10 model, which will account for only one-fourth of its total sales volume [34] - The company is committed to integrating ESG principles into its operations and has been recognized for its high ESG governance capabilities [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about maintaining sales targets for 2026, despite potential fluctuations in market demand [52][53] - The company anticipates that geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices may accelerate the adoption of new energy vehicles in Europe [69] - Management emphasized the importance of cost control and operational efficiency to sustain profitability amid raw material price changes [26][43] Other Important Information - The company launched several new models in 2025, including the D19 and A10, with plans for further model releases in 2026 [12][58] - The company has signed strategic agreements with FAW Group and other partners to enhance collaboration in new energy vehicle development [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the impact of raw material price changes on gross profit margin? - Management acknowledged the pressure from raw material prices but emphasized that cost control measures would mitigate significant impacts on gross profit margin [26][27] Question: Can you break down the revenue from services and other areas? - The CNY 2.72 billion revenue includes carbon credit revenue, license fees, and export-related revenues, with expectations for growth in these areas [28][29] Question: What is the sales target for 2026? - The company aims for a sales target of 1 million units, with 100,000 to 150,000 units expected from overseas markets [52] Question: What is the inventory level currently? - The current inventory level is approximately 1.5 to 2 months, with efforts to reduce it further in response to market conditions [77][78] Question: What is the R&D expense plan for 2026? - R&D expenses are expected to increase in 2026 due to investments in new technology and model development [70]

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (SEHK:09863) Q4 2025 Earnings call March 16, 2026 07:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsLi Tengfei - CFOShen Ke - Board SecretaryConference Call ParticipantsLisa Yi - AnalystWu Pingyue - Research AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystOperatorHello, everyone. Welcome to Leapmotor full year 2025 earnings conference call. Together with us, we have a CFO of Leapmotor, Mr. Li Tengfei, Joint President of the c ...

Group 1 - The EU is considering extending anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to include hybrid vehicles due to the rapid increase in sales of Chinese plug-in hybrids in Europe [3][4] - In October 2023, the EU initiated an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, claiming they distort the European market due to unreasonable subsidies [3][4] - The EU's investigation could lead to additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, with rates potentially reaching up to 35.3% for certain manufacturers [3][4] Group 2 - Chinese car manufacturers are accelerating local production in Europe, with companies like Chery, Xpeng, and GAC already establishing assembly operations [2][6] - BYD plans to start trial production at its Hungarian passenger car factory in Q1 2026, with full production expected in Q2 2026 [2][8] - The overall sales of Chinese plug-in hybrids in Europe are projected to grow significantly, with a 645% increase expected in 2025, capturing a market share of 14% [4][5] Group 3 - The local production strategy of Chinese car manufacturers is characterized by a comprehensive approach, including supply chain, R&D, and service localization [6][9] - Xpeng is establishing a localized supply chain team in Europe and has opened a R&D center in Munich to better align with local market demands [9][10] - BYD has set up its European headquarters in Budapest, focusing on sales, after-sales, and local vehicle design, indicating a commitment to the European market [9][10] Group 4 - GAC aims to achieve an overseas sales target of 250,000 units by 2026, with Europe being a key market for its expansion [10][11] - NIO is establishing user experience centers in Norway and Germany to enhance brand perception and service offerings in Europe [11] - Xpeng leads the European market in customer satisfaction with an 81% rating, surpassing Tesla, while NIO ranks seventh among traditional luxury brands [11]

Industry Overview - 25 countries have suspended parcel shipments to the U.S. due to new regulations that require all packages valued at $800 or less to pay applicable taxes starting from August 29 [1] - China's trade with the Arab League reached a record high of 1.72 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, marking a 3.2% year-on-year increase [2] - The Ministry of Commerce in China is set to optimize the zero tax rate declaration process for service exports, aiming to enhance export tax rebate efficiency [3] Major Platforms - Mini version of Labubu has sold out in Australia, New Zealand, and Japan on AliExpress, indicating strong overseas demand [4] - JD.com's cross-border e-commerce brand Joybuy has officially launched in France and plans to enter the German market soon [5] - Temu topped the Brazilian e-commerce traffic rankings with 410 million visits in July, a 70% month-on-month increase [6] - Amazon plans to build over 800 logistics distribution points in Brazil by the end of 2025 to enhance delivery efficiency [7] Company Updates - BYD announced the construction of an assembly plant in Malaysia, expected to commence production in 2026 [8] - Leapmotor's European manufacturing base will be established in Zaragoza, Spain, with production set to begin in Q3 of next year [9] - Lucky Coffee, a brand under Mixue Group, opened its first overseas store in Malaysia, selling nearly 2,000 cups on the opening day [10] - Alibaba's international business revenue grew by 19% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in cross-border operations [11] - Didi's international business saw a 24.9% year-on-year increase in order volume, reaching an average of 1.196 million daily orders in Q2 [12] - Anker Innovations reported a 33.36% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first half of the year, reaching 12.867 billion yuan [13] - Legg's revenue grew by 29.56% year-on-year to 3.145 billion yuan, with overseas warehouse business showing significant growth [14] - Zhiou Technology's revenue increased by 8.68% year-on-year, with 50% of its production capacity for U.S. shipments relocated to Southeast Asia [15]

Group 1: Industry Insights - The passenger car intelligence index for July 2025 is reported at 34.2, with the intelligent cockpit index at 36.5, intelligent driving index at 38.4, and external intelligent index at 16.5. The intelligent driving index saw a month-on-month decrease of 1.3 units, indicating a slight retreat from previous growth trends [1] - Toyota's global production in July reached 846,771 units, marking a 5.3% increase year-on-year, while global sales rose by 4.8% to 899,449 units, both achieving record highs for the period [7] - Nissan's global production in July was 227,563 units, down 4.2% year-on-year, but sales increased by 0.5% to 262,745 units. In China, production rose by 14.6% to 48,469 units, and sales increased by 21.8% to 57,359 units [8] - Honda's global production in July decreased by 7.0% to 277,635 units, with a cumulative production of 2,014,016 units from January to July, down 7.6% year-on-year. In China, July production fell by 23.1% to 55,941 units [9] Group 2: Company Performance - Li Auto reported Q2 2025 revenue of 30.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.5%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, down 0.4% year-on-year. The company expects Q3 delivery volumes to be between 90,000 and 95,000 units [2] - SAIC Motor Corporation disclosed a net profit of 6.018 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.21%, despite a revenue increase of 6.23% to 294.336 billion yuan [4] - Great Wall Motors increased its registered capital from approximately 8.487 billion yuan to about 8.559 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing growth and investment in its operations [5] - Horizon Robotics announced the mass production of its high-speed NOA auxiliary driving chip, with initial models including Aion's Baolong, MG4, Roewe M7 DMH, and others set for delivery starting in Q3 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor and Stellantis Group have confirmed the location of their European manufacturing base in Zaragoza, Spain, which will serve as Stellantis's core vehicle manufacturing facility in the country [2] Group 1: Manufacturing and Production - The Zaragoza plant has a 43-year history of vehicle manufacturing and an annual production capacity of 300,000 units [2] - The plant is scheduled to start production in the third quarter of 2026 after renovations are completed [2] Group 2: Vehicle Models and Pricing - The first model to be produced at the plant will be the compact pure electric SUV B10, which was launched in China in April 2023 as part of a global strategy [2] - The expected pricing for the B10 in the European market is below £30,000 (approximately 240,000 RMB) [2] - The B05 model, set to debut at the Munich Auto Show in September 2023, is anticipated to be priced under 100,000 RMB, focusing on high cost-performance [2]

Summary of Leap Motor's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Leap Motor - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) Key Points and Arguments Sales and Revenue Guidance - Leap Motor raised its 2025 sales guidance to 580,000 to 650,000 units, with a target of reaching 1 million units in 2026 [2][3] - Expected revenue for 2025 is over 60 billion yuan, corresponding to the sales volume, with a net profit of 940 million yuan [2][7] - The company achieved sales of 222,000 units in the first half of 2025, with Q1 sales at 88,000 units (up 162% year-on-year) and Q2 sales at 134,000 units (up 53% quarter-on-quarter) [3] Product Line Expansion - In 2025, Leap Motor plans to launch multiple new B-class models, including B01, B10, and B05 [4] - The introduction of A-series (small cars under 100,000 yuan) and D-series (high-end SUVs under 200,000 yuan) is expected to enhance product line coverage [2][4][5] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 10 billion yuan, and Q2 revenue was 14.2 billion yuan, with average vehicle prices of 114,000 yuan and 106,000 yuan respectively [6] - Despite a slight decline in gross margin due to price adjustments (Q1: 14.9%, Q2: 13.6%), the company managed to turn a profit through strict cost control [6][7] Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of 14-15% for the entire year of 2025, with a projected net profit of 940 million yuan [7][9] - For 2026, the revenue is expected to reach around 100 billion yuan, with net profit estimates between 4.4 billion to 5 billion yuan [8][9] Market Positioning and Competitive Strategy - Leap Motor successfully transitioned from low-end models to the mid-high-end market with the launch of the C11 SUV, which sold 70,000 units in its first year [10] - The company capitalizes on market opportunities in small electric vehicles and range-extended electric vehicles, enhancing its competitive edge [10] Cost Control and Efficiency - Leap Motor demonstrates high execution efficiency and cost control through in-house development and a multi-supplier strategy [12] - The company has a strong capability for self-research and platform-based development, allowing for cost-effective component production [12][16] International Expansion - Leap Motor established a joint venture with Scania to form Leap International, facilitating product exports and leveraging Scania's global channels [4][13] - The company is optimistic about its performance in the European market, aligning well with local consumer habits [14] Carbon Credit Revenue - The company expects to generate approximately 1.5 billion yuan from carbon credits in 2025, primarily through collaboration with Stellantis [4][15] Future Projections - Leap Motor aims to achieve sales of over 1 million units by 2026, with significant contributions from the A-series and D-series models [8][17] - The company is positioned to maintain strong growth and profitability, with a focus on expanding its market share in the competitive EV landscape [18][19]