Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. Core Views Polyolefins - The spot market of polyolefins was strong, with upstream ex - factory prices up by 400 yuan/ton. The Middle East geopolitical situation pushed up international oil prices, boosting the market from the cost side. The supply of polyethylene was at a high level, and the losses of oil - based and naphtha - based production routes increased. The resumption of PDH units of polypropylene was slow due to planned maintenance in March and rising raw material prices. The demand side was affected by the Spring Festival, with downstream factory operating rates at a seasonal low. The industry profit was in a historically low range, but the market had strong expectations for post - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream operating rates [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures continued to rise and hit the daily limit. The Middle East conflict restricted Iranian methanol exports, leading to concerns about global supply disruptions. Domestically, the operating rate remained high, but imports were affected by the conflict, and the March arrival volume would decline significantly. The demand side was weak, with poor olefin demand at ports and delayed start - up of new MTO units. The port inventory was at a medium - high level, with expectations of destocking. The current price was driven by geopolitical sentiment, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of the conflict and the port destocking rhythm [4]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot price remained stable. The daily production of urea was close to 220,000 tons, with sufficient short - term supply, and the holiday inventory accumulation put pressure on the price. The agricultural fertilizer demand continued to advance, while the industrial demand was average. Affected by the war, international urea prices rose significantly, which might drive up the domestic urea market, but the increase might be limited under the supply guarantee policy and high supply. In the short term, the urea price was expected to remain high, and the main contract was expected to be in the range of 1800 - 1900. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory accumulation [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures fluctuated strongly, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to increase as downstream chlorine - consuming industries resumed work, increasing inventory pressure. The demand from the alumina industry was stable, and non - aluminum demand improved. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises was repaired, and the industry load was expected to increase. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate and adjust. - The PVC futures fluctuated higher, and the spot price rose. The cost of bulk commodities was pushed up by the geopolitical conflict. The PVC supply remained high, domestic demand was normal, and foreign trade exports faced risks. The cost transmission from crude oil - ethylene - PVC was uncertain, and the short - term PVC price was expected to continue to rise, but the increase was uncertain due to fundamental and long - term uncertainties [7]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose, with the main contract PG2603 up 3.67%. The Middle East geopolitical situation affected the LPG market. The refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased. The upstream refinery operating rate remained stable, while the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the LPG market [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply side had cost support as overseas raw material prices continued to rise, and Thailand's rubber production decreased in January. The demand side was affected by the Middle East situation, with shipping to the Middle East suspended, increasing export resistance. The demand side dragged down the rubber price, and it was recommended to leave long positions and consider going long again around 16000 [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash futures fluctuated weakly and rose at the end. The supply side had high - level production, and the demand side was mainly in a wait - and - see state. The inventory increased significantly. The fundamentals of supply exceeding demand continued, and it was recommended to short at high prices or wait and see, with a reference price around 1200. - The glass futures fluctuated weakly and rose at the end. The supply side had low - level production, and the demand side was affected by bad weather and environmental protection policies, with delayed resumption of work. The inventory increased seasonally. It was recommended to short at high prices or wait and see, with a reference high point around 1075, and pay attention to macro and inventory changes [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene was expected to decrease due to the impact of geopolitical factors on refinery operations and maintenance plans. The downstream styrene industry had good profits, and the demand was strong in the short term. However, due to high port inventory and import pressure, the price of pure benzene followed the fluctuations of oil prices and downstream styrene. It was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and short the EB - BZ spread at high levels. - The styrene industry had good profits, and the factory load increased. The supply in March was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was expected to pick up after the holiday. The short - term styrene price was expected to be strong, and it was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and short the EB04 - BZ04 spread at high levels [14]. Crude Oil - The crude oil prices rose significantly. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran increased the risk premium of crude oil. If the risk continued to spread or the Strait of Hormuz was blocked for a long time, the oil price would continue to rise; if the conflict eased, the oil price would face the risk of a premium pull - back. The freight rate increase led to a rise in the SC futures delivery cost, and the domestic premium increased. It was recommended to hold long positions cautiously [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply was expected to decrease due to refinery maintenance and geopolitical factors, and the demand from downstream PTA units increased. The short - term PX price was expected to be strong, and it was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and pay attention to oil price trends. - The PTA load increased after the holiday, but the inventory was expected to increase in February. The PTA processing margin was compressed, and the short - term PTA price was driven by the cost side. It was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and pay attention to oil price trends. - The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to decrease in March, and the demand was expected to pick up seasonally. It was recommended to go long on the EG5 - 9 spread at low levels. - The short - fiber market was weak in both supply and demand. The short - term short - fiber price followed the raw material price, and it was recommended to pay attention to the cost transmission to the downstream. - The supply of polyester bottle chips was expected to increase in March, and the demand was expected to be weak. The bottle chip price followed the cost side, and the processing margin was expected to decline. It was recommended to short the PR main - contract processing margin at high levels and buy call options at low levels [18]. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all rose on March 3, with increases of 2.99%, 1.58%, 3.22%, and 2.12% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP拉丝 and North China LDPE also increased, with increases of 4.35% and 4.41% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased significantly, with increases of 68.66% and 89.14% respectively. The social inventory of PE also increased by 12.65% [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 7.98%. The PP device operating rate decreased slightly, while the powder operating rate increased by 9.18%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 30.3% [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices rose on March 3, with increases of 8.12% and 3.84% respectively. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang also increased [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased, with increases of 57.30%, 1.01%, and 11.82% respectively [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 6.98%. The downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged, and the formaldehyde operating rate increased by 24.12% [4]. Urea - **Prices**: The urea futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot price remained stable. The main contract closed at 1819 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of urea was close to 220,000 tons, and the short - term supply was sufficient. The agricultural fertilizer demand continued to advance, while the industrial demand was average [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory and port inventory increased, with increases of 14.13% and 4.82% respectively [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and ethylene - based PVC increased on March 3, with increases of 1.1% and 2.0% respectively. The caustic soda price remained stable [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of caustic soda was expected to increase as downstream chlorine - consuming industries resumed work, and the demand from the alumina industry was stable. The PVC supply remained high, and domestic demand was normal, while foreign trade exports faced risks [7]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda factory inventory increased by 22.1%, and the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory decreased slightly [7]. LPG - **Prices**: The LPG futures prices rose, with the main contract PG2603 up 3.67%. The spot prices of South China civil gas and deliverable spot also increased [8]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased, with increases of 11.94% and 5.95% respectively [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream refinery operating rate remained stable, while the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly [8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber increased by 0.30%, and the full - latex basis increased by 103.37% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side had cost support, and Thailand's rubber production decreased in January. The demand side was affected by the Middle East situation, with shipping to the Middle East suspended, increasing export resistance [10]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 1.82%, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.40% [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: The glass and soda ash futures prices rose on March 3. The glass 2605 and 2609 closing prices increased by 1.05% and 1.39% respectively, and the soda ash 2605 and 2609 closing prices increased by 2.53% and 1.92% respectively [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was mainly in a wait - and - see state. The glass supply was at a low level, and the demand was affected by bad weather and environmental protection policies [13]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory and soda ash factory inventory increased significantly, with increases of 37.32% and 19.29% respectively [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR China pure benzene increased on March 3, with increases of 4.7%, 4.7%, and 5.1% respectively. The prices of styrene East China spot and EB futures also increased [14]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased slightly, and the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 11.1% [14]. - **Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, and the domestic pure benzene, hydrogenated benzene, and styrene operating rates increased [14]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices rose on March 3, with increases of 4.71%, 4.67%, and 10.06% respectively [15]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 all changed significantly [15]. - **Outlook**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran increased the risk premium of crude oil. The oil price was affected by geopolitical factors, and it was recommended to hold long positions cautiously [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha increased. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased by 2.0% [18]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products all changed to varying degrees [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Overall, the market is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the actual changes in demand [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The mainland supply remains high, traditional demand is weak, and there is short - term pressure, but the long - term pressure may ease. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound [2]. Natural Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are falling, but considering Thailand's approaching low - production period, the raw material decline may be limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but its own driving force is limited. Styrene is strong due to export and device issues, driving up the pure benzene price. Strategies include focusing on short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be stable and weak, and PVC is under pressure but has limited downward space due to cost support [5]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, with supply remaining high and demand being cautious [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and glass is also expected to weaken, both can be treated bearishly [7]. Crude Oil - Short - term oil prices are affected by news, and the upside space is limited. Brent crude may oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [8]. LPG - The LPG market shows price declines in some contracts and inventories. The downstream PDH开工率 has decreased [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be bullish in the medium term. PTA, short - fiber, and polyester bottle - chip follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate inventory significantly [13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Futures Prices**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined, with L2605 down 0.83% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices, such as华东PP拉丝现货价格 and华北LLDPE现货价格, decreased [1]. - **Spreads**: PP59价差 increased by 13.16%, while LP05价差 decreased by 18.50% [1]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased by 2.48%, and PP装置开工率 increased slightly by 0.20% [1]. Methanol - **Futures and Spot Prices**: MA2605 and MA2609 declined, and most spot prices also decreased [2]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存 increased by 0.73%, while methanol港口库存 decreased by 6.63% [2]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic企业开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream外采MTO装置开工率 decreased significantly by 11.22% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: Yunnan国营全乳胶 and other prices declined, such as a 1.27% drop in Yunnan国营全乳胶 [3]. - **Production and开工率**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 9.39%, and the开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, especially the dark - colored rubber [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: Brent原油 and other upstream prices changed slightly, while pure benzene and styrene prices showed different trends, with styrene being stronger [4]. - **Inventory**: Pure苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 8.3%, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 7.1% [4]. - **开工率**: Asian pure苯开工率 decreased by 0.9%, and国内苯乙烯开工率 remained stable [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: Shandong 32%液碱折百价 and华东电石法PVC市场价 decreased [5]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda行业开工率 and PVC总开工率 increased slightly [5]. - **Inventory**:液碱华东库存 decreased by 3.2%, and PVC总社会库存 increased by 2.8% [5]. Urea - **Prices**: Urea期货 prices showed different trends, and spot prices were slightly loose [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea日产量 reached a high of 200,000 tons, and the厂内库存 decreased by 3.53% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass2605 and玻璃2609 declined, and soda ash2609 decreased slightly [7]. - **开工率 and Production**: Soda ash开工率 increased by 5.93%, and its weekly production increased by 8.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: Glass厂库 decreased by 5.69%, and soda ash厂库 increased by 4.25% [7]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent原油 decreased by 0.3%, WTI原油 was stable, and SC原油 decreased by 2.81% [8]. - **Spreads**: Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, changed slightly [8]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB and other refined oil prices had different changes [8]. LPG - **Prices**: Most LPG futures contracts declined, and the华南现货(民用气) and可交割现货 prices dropped to zero [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比 decreased by 2.77%, and LPG港口库存 decreased by 4.89% [11]. - **开工率**: The upstream主营炼厂开工率 increased slightly, and the downstream PDH开工率 decreased by 3.36% [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - **Prices**: PX, PTA, and MEG prices had minor changes, and some polyester product prices increased slightly [13]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 0.7%, and PTA开工率 decreased by 1.7% [13]. - **Inventory**: MEG港口库存 decreased by 0.9% [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - LLDPE: HD - LLD spread is narrowing, with marginal supply increase of LLDPE expected, demand in seasonal off - peak, and downstream开工率 weakening. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability [2]. - PP: Supply - demand is weak. There are many maintenance plans in January, with inventory reduction expected. PDH plants in South China coastal areas have new maintenance plans, and the balance has improved significantly. Pay attention to the implementation of later maintenance plans [2]. Methanol - Futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot is purchased on - demand. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of coastal MTO plants [4][6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Short - term supply - demand is weak, with high inventory pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: Short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, but there is inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival. It is not advisable to chase long in the short - term, and opportunities to short EB03 and shrink processing fees at high levels can be considered [9]. LPG No overall view is provided in the report, only data on price, inventory, and开工率 are presented [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Affected by macro - sentiment and short - term demand expectations, it fluctuates upward. The supply remains high, and the demand is slightly weak. It is expected to continue the oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. - Glass: After the previous rise, it oscillates and falls back. The supply decreases, and the demand shrinks. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the winter storage situation [13]. Crude Oil - Affected by geopolitical risks such as the situation in Iran, oil prices rise, but the increase is limited due to the weak supply - demand expectation. Brent crude oil should pay attention to the pressure around $65 per barrel [14]. Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asia is increasing during the high - yielding tapping period, but overseas raw material prices may remain high. Demand recovery is limited, and inventory in Qingdao increases. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate in the range of 15500 - 16500 [15]. Urea - Supply remains high, and demand is weak. There is no substantial improvement in supply - demand, and prices are expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of plants and downstream demand [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Futures oscillate and fall, supply increases slightly, demand lacks improvement, and prices are expected to be stable and weak [19]. - PVC: Affected by export policies, prices fluctuate emotionally. The fundamentals are still under pressure, and short - term short positions should be on hold [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the medium - term and conduct long - spread arbitrage on PX5 - 9 at low levels [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to weaken, with limited inventory accumulation in January and greater pressure in February. It is recommended to oscillate in the range of 5000 - 5300 in the short - term, go long at low levels in the medium - term, and conduct long - spread arbitrage on TA5 - 9 at low levels [20]. - MEG: Supply is high, demand is weakening, and there is a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation in January - February. Pay attention to the pressure around 4000 for EG2605, conduct reverse - spread arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high levels, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at high levels [20]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak, and prices follow raw materials to oscillate. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PF plate is recommended to be shrunk at high levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand both decrease, and prices and processing fees follow the cost end. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PR main - contract plate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increase, and spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 change [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE企业 inventory and社会库存 increase, PP企业 inventory decreases, and PP贸易商 inventory increases. PE装置开工率 and下游加权开工率 increase slightly, while PP装置开工率 and downstream开工率 decrease [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decrease slightly, and spreads and basis change [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业 inventory,港口库存, and社会库存 all increase [5]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic企业开工率 increases, and some downstream开工率 decreases [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: Prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha increase [9]. - **Benzene - Styrene Price and Spread**: Prices of pure benzene and styrene increase, and spreads and basis change [9]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene江苏港口库存 increases slightly, and styrene江苏港口库存 decreases.开工率 of some industries in the industrial chain changes [9]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LPG increase slightly, and spreads and basis change [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decrease slightly. Upstream主营炼厂开工率 increases, and some downstream开工率 changes slightly [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: Glass and soda ash prices are relatively stable, and spreads and basis change [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash开工率 and周产量 increase, while浮法日熔量 decreases slightly. Glass厂库库存 decreases, and soda ash厂库库存 increases [13]. - **Real Estate Data**: New - start area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all change [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increase, and spreads and basis change [14]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: Prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD change, and spreads and basis change [14]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: Prices of natural rubber spot products change slightly, and basis and non - standard spreads change [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Production in some countries in November changes,开工率 of tire industries changes, and import and export volumes increase [15]. - **Inventory Change**:保税区库存 increases, and上期所厂库期货库存 decreases [15]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Price**: Futures prices oscillate and rise, and spot prices decline slightly [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea日产量 and周产量 increase,装置检修损失量 decreases,厂内库存 increases slightly, and港口库存 decreases [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: Prices of PVC and caustic soda products change slightly, and spreads and basis change [19]. - **Supply and Demand**:开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and some downstream industries changes, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda increases [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: Prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China MX increase [20]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY change [20]. - **PX, PTA, MEG Price and Spread**: Prices and spreads of PX, PTA, and MEG change, and inventory and开工率 of MEG change [20]. - **开工率**:开工率 of industries in the polyester industrial chain changes [20].

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, down 8.41% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.93% to 1.097 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 24.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.73%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.38% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 486 million yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.04% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.54% [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The main revenue contributors were polyester filament and purified terephthalic acid (PTA), with revenues of 37.932 billion yuan and 3.521 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 86% and 8% of total revenue [1] - Production and sales volumes for key products were as follows: POY (4.8696 million tons produced, 4.3796 million tons sold), FDY (1.0877 million tons produced, 1.0295 million tons sold), DTY (585.6 thousand tons produced, 543.5 thousand tons sold), and PTA (767.5 thousand tons produced, 825.1 thousand tons sold) [1] - Price changes for key products were: POY at 6,160.30 yuan/ton (-9.99% YoY), FDY at 6,464.69 yuan/ton (-15.90% YoY), DTY at 7,688.11 yuan/ton (-9.07% YoY), and PTA at 4,267.54 yuan/ton (-19.11% YoY) [1] Group 3: Company Background and Industry Position - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is the largest polyester filament producer globally, with a comprehensive product range including various types of polyester filament [2] - The company has a strong market position, ranking 34th among China's top 500 private enterprises and 25th among China's top 500 private manufacturing enterprises in 2025 [2] Group 4: Production Capacity and Supply Chain - As of mid-2025, the company has a total of 13 million tons of polymerization capacity and 13.5 million tons of filament capacity, leading the industry in filament capacity and output [3] - The company has established multiple production bases across China, ensuring a robust supply chain, with PTA production capacity of 10.2 million tons, achieving self-sufficiency in raw materials [3] Group 5: Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.53% in net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years, with a target price of 18.00 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Southeast Steel Structure Co., Ltd., is actively involved in the construction steel structure industry and has issued convertible bonds to support its projects and working capital needs. The company is facing challenges in its construction business due to declining new orders and fluctuating material prices, but it maintains a stable credit outlook supported by its strong brand and financing capabilities [3][4][6]. Company Overview - Zhejiang Southeast Steel Structure Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the space steel structure sector, with strong capabilities in design, manufacturing, and contracting [3][4]. - The company has a robust brand image and emphasizes technological research and development in its operations [3]. Financial Performance - The company issued convertible bonds worth 2 billion yuan in January 2024, with 1.5 billion yuan allocated for project construction and 500 million yuan for working capital [4][6]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline to 11.24 billion yuan, down from 12.99 billion yuan in 2023, primarily due to a decrease in construction business revenue [10][12]. Industry Context - The construction steel structure industry is experiencing pressure from increased competition and a decline in new project orders, leading to a decrease in production and new order amounts for many large steel structure enterprises in 2024 [7][9]. - The demand for steel structures is expected to grow due to urbanization and increased investment in public infrastructure, although the penetration rate of steel structures in downstream sectors remains low, indicating potential for growth [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The average price index for steel in China decreased by 9.02% in 2023, impacting the pricing strategies of steel structure companies [8]. - The company is adapting to market conditions by shifting its order structure towards engineering contracting, which is expected to provide more stable cash flow [12][15]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining stable credit quality in the coming months, with a focus on improving operational performance and managing financial risks [4][10]. - The construction steel structure market is projected to benefit from government policies promoting green and low-carbon building practices, which may enhance the industry's growth prospects [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Urea - Affected by export news, the domestic urea futures and spot markets weakened slightly. With the unclear export policy, downstream buyers were cautious. After the urea export - related meeting and the release of export details, the market trend is expected to become clear [9]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices declined due to the shift from macro to fundamental supply - side pressures. EIA data showed a significant increase in crude oil inventories, and OPEC +'s production increase plans raised concerns about supply over - capacity. In the short term, oil prices will be mainly in a high - level consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and consider long - volatility strategies in the options market [33]. Benzene and Styrene - In the short term, the benzene and styrene market may remain strong. Low inventory, tariff relaxation, and positive market sentiment support the price. However, high inventory in downstream products and unresolved supply - demand issues in the pure benzene raw material end may limit the upward space. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing high prices [20]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, short - term supply pressure is limited during the maintenance period, and demand is improving. However, high - profit and high - production situations may pose risks in the medium term. For PVC, short - term supply - demand contradictions are limited, but long - term over - capacity pressure remains due to the weak real - estate market. Short - term rebounds are expected, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium term [27]. Polyolefin - The spot trading of plastics is active. With increased maintenance in May and expected decline in imports from May to June, the supply pressure of plastics is gradually decreasing. For PP, although the supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, the output remains high. The cost - end price rise compresses profits. Attention should be paid to the restocking and export situation of plastic products [29]. Methanol - The inland methanol valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production increases, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - building period, and the import volume is expected to recover in May. The MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand, and the 09 - contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [36][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is tightening, and demand is supported. However, due to limited upward potential of oil prices and downstream losses, it may face pressure. For PTA, short - term supply - demand is tight, but downstream losses may lead to price corrections. For ethylene glycol, short - term support is strong due to expected inventory reduction. For short - fiber, inventory pressure is low, but the processing fee is under pressure. For bottle - grade chips, supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to the device operation under low processing fees [45]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On May 14, the 01 - contract closed at 1814 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.89% from May 13; the 05 - contract closed at 1900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 1.55%; the 09 - contract closed at 1886 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 0.58%; the methanol main - contract closed at 2365 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan or 3.23% [1]. Futures Contract Spreads - On May 14, the 01 - contract minus 05 - contract spread was - 86 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 34.85% from May 13; the 05 - contract minus 09 - contract spread was 14 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or - 57.58%; the 09 - contract minus 01 - contract spread was 72 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or - 27.27%; the UR - MA main - contract spread was - 551 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or - 11.76% [2]. Main Positions - On May 14, the long - position of top 20 was 151,890, down 13,513 or - 8.17% from May 13; the short - position of top 20 was 154,110, down 2,253 or - 1.44%; the long - short ratio was 0.99, down 0.07 or - 6.83%; the single - side trading volume was 375,951, up 76,712 or 25.64%; the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's warehouse receipt quantity was 7,352, up 303 or 4.30% [3]. Upstream Raw Materials - On May 14, the prices of some upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces and fixed - bed production cost estimates remained unchanged, while the price of动力煤港口 (Qinhuangdao) decreased by 2 yuan/ton or - 0.79% [4]. Spot Market Prices - On May 14, the spot prices of some regions such as Shandong (small - particle) decreased slightly, while the prices of some regions such as Shanxi (small - particle) remained unchanged. The inter - regional spreads also changed to varying degrees [5]. Basis - On May 14, the basis in Shandong decreased by 8 yuan or - 12.33% compared to May 13, while the basis in Shanxi and Henan increased [6]. Downstream Products - On May 14, the prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers remained unchanged [7]. Fertilizer Market - On May 14, the prices of most fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur decreased slightly or remained unchanged [8]. Supply - Demand Overview - The domestic urea daily output on May 16 was 199,200 tons, down 2,400 tons or - 1.19% from February 12; the weekly output remained unchanged; the factory inventory decreased by 248,400 tons or - 23.31%; the production enterprise order days increased by 0.47 days or 8.08% [9]. Crude Oil EIA Weekly Data - As of the week ending May 9, 2025, the U.S. crude oil production was 13.387 million barrels per day, up 0.02 million barrels per day from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 90.2%, up 1.2 percentage points; the commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.454 million barrels [11]. Oil Prices and Spreads - On May 15, Brent crude oil was 66.09 dollars per barrel, down 0.54 dollars or - 0.81% from May 14; WTI was 62.10 dollars per barrel, down 1.05 dollars or - 1.66%; SC was 484.60 yuan per barrel, down 2.90 yuan or - 0.59% [33]. Benzene and Styrene Upstream of Benzene and Styrene - On May 14, Brent crude oil (June) was 66.1 dollars per barrel, down 0.5 dollars or - 0.8%; CFR Japan naphtha was 590.0 dollars per ton, up 14.0 dollars or 2.4%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged; CFR South Korea pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene increased [17]. Benzene and Styrene Spot and Futures - On May 14, the benzene and styrene spot price in East China was 7,990.0 yuan per ton, up 325.0 yuan or 4.2%; the EB2506 and EB2507 futures prices also increased; the basis and monthly spread increased [18]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits of Benzene and Styrene - On May 14, the benzene and styrene CFR China was 952.0 dollars per ton, up 22.0 dollars or 2.4%; the FOB South Korea was 942.0 dollars per ton, up 22.0 dollars or 2.4%; the import profit decreased [19]. Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - From April 18 to April 25, the domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points or 1.1%; the benzene and styrene operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points or 1.7%; the integrated profit of benzene and styrene decreased significantly [20]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures of PVC and Caustic Soda - On May 14, the prices of some products such as Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of East China ethylene - based PVC increased by 50.0 yuan or 1.0%; the prices of some futures contracts also changed [25]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda at East China ports decreased by 5.0 dollars or - 1.3% from February 8 to May 1; the export profit of PVC and caustic soda had incomplete data [25]. Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rate and Industry Profit - The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 percentage points or 1.3% compared to February 2; the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.1 percentage points or 1.4% [25]. Demand: Downstream Operating Rates - The operating rates of some downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased to varying degrees [26][27]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 1.5 tons or 3.7% from February 8 to May 1; the total social inventory increased by 0.6 tons or 1.5% [27]. Polyolefin PE and PP Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the L2505 and L2509 closing prices of PE increased by 1.95% and 2.11% respectively compared to May 13; the PP2505 and PP2509 closing prices increased by 1.13% and 1.68% respectively [29]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.77 percentage points or - 0.91%; the PP device operating rate increased by 5.36 percentage points or 7.2% [29]. Inventory - The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.76 tons or - 8.27%; the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 7.20 tons or - 10.64%, while the PP trader inventory increased by 1.61 tons or 11.28% [29]. Methanol Methanol Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the MA2501, MA2505, and MA2509 closing prices increased by 3.02%, 4.08%, and 3.23% respectively compared to May 13; the regional spreads also changed [36]. Inventory - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.4 tons or 11.14%; the port inventory decreased by 7.8 tons or - 13.88% [36]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points or 1.64%; the downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 2.7 percentage points or 4.12% [36]. Polyester Industry Chain Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - On May 14, the prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 increased to varying degrees; the cash flows of some products also changed [45]. Upstream Prices - On May 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha changed to varying degrees [45]. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the CFR China PX price was 870 dollars per ton, up 3.2% from May 13; the PX - related spreads also changed [45]. PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the PTA East China spot price was 5,095 yuan per ton, up 79.0 yuan or 1.55% from May 13; the PTA - related spreads and processing fees also changed [45]. MEG - Related Prices and Spreads - On May 14, the MEG East China spot price was 4,635 yuan per ton, up 3.3% from May 13; the MEG - related spreads and import profits also changed [45]. Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes - From April 30, the Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.1 percentage points; the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points; the polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The inland valuation has downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production increases, downstream profits are divided. New acetic acid production capacity may boost demand but cannot reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. The port starts the inventory accumulation period, with imports in May recovering to 1.1 million tons. The low MTO operation rate suppresses demand, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and the rebound space is limited under the inventory accumulation expectation [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - For LLDPE, maintenance increases in May, and the import volume from May to June is expected to decline significantly, reducing the supply pressure in May. However, beware of an unexpected decline in demand. The cost has decreased, and it is recommended to keep short positions until low levels. For PP, although the supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance peak, the production is still high, demand has bottom - support but is weakening, and there is a downward risk in the long - term [4]. Urea - The supply - side capacity at a high level suppresses prices, and the demand - side export expectation provides limited support. The enterprise inventory reduction and port inventory accumulation offset each other. Policy control and international prices weaken the upward momentum. In the short - term, the spot is driven by sentiment, but in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and the price is expected to be under pressure after high - level fluctuations [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, in the medium - long term, the alumina profit is worrying under over - expansion, the demand for caustic soda is insufficient, and new production capacity is to be put into use, so the supply - demand expectation is weak. In the short - term, the supply is in the centralized maintenance stage, the pre - holiday alumina demand has improved, and the spot price has increased. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, paying attention to the purchasing intention of major alumina plants in Shandong and the caustic soda plant inventory. For PVC, the supply - demand surplus contradiction is prominent, the real - estate chain is weak, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the export is mainly quantity - for - price. During the Indian Ramadan and rainy season, the demand is hard to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of price rebounds due to policy stimuli [25]. Styrene - Pure benzene has a weak supply - demand situation domestically, and the high - volume imports and the potential decline in crude oil prices suppress the styrene market. The styrene market was sluggish yesterday, the port inventory continued to decline, and the downstream procurement was cautious after the holiday. With the stable production of domestic plants, the supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand margin is under pressure. In the medium - term, the terminal pressure will gradually appear due to tariffs, and the crude oil trend is bearish. It is recommended to short styrene, with the upper - line resistance at 7300 [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Recently, due to the significant compression of PX profits, the unplanned losses of some PX factories have increased, tightening the second - quarter supply. Some PTA factory maintenance has been postponed, supporting short - term demand. With the short - term reduction of polyester inventory pressure and high polyester operation rate, short - term PX support is expected to be strong, but the terminal demand is still expected to be weak under the US tariff policy. - **PTA**: In May, many PTA plants are planned for maintenance, and the short - term polyester high operation rate supports PTA demand. The short - term supply - demand drive is strong, but the demand negative feedback and weak oil price expectation suppress the rebound. - **MEG**: In May, the industry has both maintenance and restart of plants. The domestic supply is expected to increase, but imports may decrease due to Saudi plant maintenance. Under the pressure of the crude oil system, the upward momentum is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate. - **Short - fiber**: After the holiday, the short - fiber factory inventory has decreased, but under the Sino - US tariff stalemate, the short - fiber drive is weaker than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Bottle - chip**: A 750,000 - ton device of Sanfangxiang is expected to resume production in May, increasing the supply. The downstream soft - drink industry is expected to increase production in May. The bottle - chip price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is supported. [35] Crude Oil - Overnight, oil prices rebounded due to macro - factors (the US - UK trade framework agreement boosting market risk preference) and improved supply - demand fundamentals (a two - week decline in US crude oil inventory to the lowest level since late March and a contraction in Cushing inventory). Geopolitical risks have increased, and the option market shows bullish bets. In the short - term, macro and geopolitical factors promote oil price increases, but in the medium - long term, the loose supply situation remains unchanged, and the rebound sustainability is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, with the WTI price range at [58, 68], Brent at [60, 70], and SC at [450, 510]. It is recommended to bet on increased volatility in the options market [40]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On May 8, compared with May 7, the closing prices of MA2501, MA2505, and MA2509 decreased, with the largest decline of 1.03% for MA2509. The MA2505 - 2509 spread increased by 17.91%, while the MA2501 - 2505 spread had an error value. The spot prices in different regions decreased, with the largest decline of 2.64% in Henan Luoyang. The regional spreads also changed, with the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia North Line decreasing by 13.18% [1]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 7.26% week - on - week, and the port inventory increased by 4.55% week - on - week. The weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.64%, while the downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 4.12%, and some other downstream operating rates decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: For PE, the closing prices of L2505 increased by 0.37%, and L2509 decreased by 0.43%. For PP, the closing prices of PP2505 and PP2509 decreased. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 38.99% week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 1.98%. The PP enterprise inventory increased by 19.76%, and the trader inventory increased by 10.19% [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.91%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.51%. The PP device operating rate decreased significantly by 57.1%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.4% [4]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures closing prices of different contracts had small fluctuations on May 8 compared with May 7. The spot prices in different regions remained stable, and the cross - regional spreads and basis also showed little change [10][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production decreased by 1.20% on May 9 compared with May 8. The weekly production increased by 0.21%, the plant maintenance loss increased by 5.41%, the factory inventory decreased by 10.58%, and the port inventory increased by 12.71%. The production enterprise order days decreased by 22.09% [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On May 8, compared with May 7, the prices of caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the prices of PVC in the East China region decreased. The futures prices of different contracts also changed, and the spreads between contracts and basis had corresponding fluctuations [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.4%. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda decreased, and some downstream operating rates of PVC increased. The inventory of caustic soda in some regions decreased slightly, and the PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 2.2%, while the total social inventory decreased by 4.7% [23][24][25]. Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On May 8, compared with May 7, the prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil increased, while the prices of some raw materials such as CFR Japan naphtha decreased. The styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and the import profit decreased [28][29][30]. - **Operating Rates and Profits**: The domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1%, the styrene operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the operating rates of some downstream products decreased. The styrene integrated profit decreased significantly, and the profits of some downstream products changed [31]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene port inventory decreased by 14.8%, and the styrene port inventory decreased by 7.0%, and the inventories of downstream products also decreased slightly [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On May 8, compared with May 7, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed. The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also had small fluctuations. The PX - related prices and spreads, PTA - related prices and spreads, and MEG - related prices and spreads all changed [35]. - **Operating Rates**: The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.7%, the Chinese PX operating rate decreased by 0.2%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.7%, the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 0.3%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate decreased by 0.2% [35]. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 1.3%, and the MEG arrival expectation decreased significantly [35]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On May 8, compared with May 7, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased. The spreads between different contracts and cross - regional spreads also changed [40]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts also increased [40]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions such as the US, Europe, and Singapore changed to varying degrees [40].