GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 本周原油整体呈现震荡上行的走势，均价环比上涨。地缘局势方上，目前美伊双方已经进行两轮间接谈判，但仍未取得实质进展，市场对美 伊冲突的担忧仍存，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军在霍尔木兹海峡附近举行演习。供应方面，委内瑞拉石油供应预计增加，OPEC+一季度仍维持原 油产量稳定，但市场对于该联盟自4月份起开始增产的预期有所升温。市场等待美伊第三轮核谈，美国态度上更倾向于与伊朗继续核谈，这将引 导油价降温下行，短期国际原油价格或保持震荡格局。 PX&PTA 国内PX负荷无变化，估值跟随原油冲高回落，PX加工费维持在305美元/吨左右，PX二季度供应收紧远月预期依然较好，且地缘不确定性仍 存，下方支撑较强。周内有PTA装置 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to geopolitical tensions, potential supply disruptions, and uncertainties in future Fed policies, while in the long - term, there is an oversupply situation [4]. - PX is expected to have a short - term shock operation, and there is still an upward possibility in the medium - term, with attention paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [4]. - MEG is expected to operate in a shock manner, and its medium - term fundamentals are expected to improve weakly, with attention paid to overseas situation changes [5]. - Pure benzene is expected to operate in a short - term shock, and styrene is expected to operate following costs during the Spring Festival [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EIA predicts that the Brent crude oil price will be $58 per barrel in 2026 (an increase of $2 per barrel from before) and $53 per barrel in 2027 (previously $54 per barrel) [4]. - Short - term oil price fluctuations are intensified, and geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in future Fed policies are the main factors [4]. - OPEC+ and other oil - producing countries' long - term production increase trend remains unchanged, and there is an oversupply situation in the long - term [4]. PX&PTA - Domestic PX load remains unchanged, downstream demand drops to zero before the festival, and PX processing fees fall to around $300 per ton [4]. - PTA devices remain unchanged this week, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the inventory accumulation trend will continue in February [4]. - PTA has an overhaul expectation in the second quarter, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is still favorable [4]. MEG - The seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February reaches the highest level since 2021, and the future expectation is difficult to reverse [5]. - Polyester demand weakens, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand of ethylene glycol, and device losses expand [5]. - The ethylene glycol price is at a low level, with certain support around 3,600 yuan per ton [5]. BZ&EB - For pure benzene, the supply pressure increases as the start - up rate increases by 2.4% to 75.4% after the overhaul of multiple devices [5]. - The downstream profits are significantly differentiated, with good profits for styrene and average for others [5]. - The port inventory of styrene is de - stocked at a low level this week, and it is expected to start seasonal inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival [5]. Industry Data - Domestic PX weekly capacity utilization rate is 91.65%, an increase of 1.78% from last week; Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 80.28%, an increase of 0.97% from last week [8]. - This week, the PTA spot market price is 5,158 yuan per ton, an increase of 45 yuan per ton from last week; the PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 76.13%, a decrease of 0.16% from last week [14]. - This week, the ethylene glycol price in East China is 3,638 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26 yuan per ton from last week; the domestic ethylene glycol total start - up rate is 64.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [19]. - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry is 75.99%, a decrease of 3.54 percentage points from last week; the start - up rate of sample enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is 11.76%, a decrease of 10.71% from the previous data [24]. - This week, the domestic capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; the capacity utilization rate of styrene factories is 71.08%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil price volatility has increased this week, and the rebound height may be limited without clear signals of production cuts or a significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4] - PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term due to weak downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol is in a situation of supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [5] - Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish, but there is a risk of correction [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, oil prices fluctuated sharply due to geopolitical and Fed policy uncertainties. Tensions in the Middle East, concerns about potential supply disruptions, a reduction in US crude oil production due to force majeure, a decrease in US crude oil inventories, and a decline in the US dollar index supported oil prices [4] - OPEC+ announced a suspension of the production increase plan for the first three months of 2026 at the end of 2025, but the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute an output increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] PX & PTA - Domestic PX load remained unchanged, and processing fees fell to around $300/ton. With the end of some device maintenance, PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and attention should be paid to the subsequent terminal restocking [4][10] - This week, PTA devices remained unchanged, factory inventories started to accumulate, and downstream operations weakened significantly. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in February. The polyester industry's operating rate will decline rapidly, and the overall maintenance intensity exceeds that of the same period last year [4] - The current spot price of PTA is 5,068 yuan/ton, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 76.29%. Factory - in inventory days increased to 3.72 days. PTA processing fees are 422 yuan/ton. As future supply recovers and downstream demand weakens, PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [16] MEG - At the beginning of the month, there are plans for large Saudi contract ships to enter the warehouse, and the near - term arrivals are still relatively high. The arrivals will gradually decrease from mid - February [5] - The seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February is at a high level since 2021, and the future expectation is difficult to reverse. Polyester demand is weak, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is imbalanced, and device losses are expanding [5] - The current price of ethylene glycol is around 3,600 yuan/ton, which has a certain support. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to overseas situations [5] BZ & EB - The operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and there are expectations of restarting multiple domestic related devices, so the overall supply is expected to rise. This week, the pure benzene port inventory remained flat but is still at a high level [5][38] - It is expected that during the Spring Festival, the load reduction of styrene will be limited under high profits, while other varieties with weak profits may have obvious load reductions. In February, the overall demand will remain stable month - on - month, and it is expected to gradually enter a seasonal inventory accumulation pattern [5] - The overall operating rate of downstream 3S is not high, showing an inventory reduction trend. With the subsequent resumption of some devices and the high inventory of pure benzene, there is a risk of correction. Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish [5] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 79.53%, a decrease of 2.34 percentage points from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, multiple devices are under maintenance, and the domestic polyester industry output continues to decline significantly [30] - The operating rate of sample enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving industry is 22.47%, a decrease of 19.94% from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 6.35 days, a decrease of 0.35 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory is 26.08 days, a decrease of 2.72 days from last week [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the oversupply pressure in 2026 remains the core driver of oil price movements. Geopolitical risks have fluctuated recently, with short - term price fluctuations due to the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine war, while the medium - term downward trend remains valid [4]. - For PX & PTA, domestic PX operating rates have increased, and future supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA is currently in a short - term tight balance, but high operating rates may not be sustainable, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels following the cost side [4]. - For MEG, the supply pressure has eased, but the medium - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short - term [5]. - For BZ & EB, pure benzene has high inventory pressure and is expected to oscillate widely. Styrene shows a short - term strong trend but may face callback risks due to upstream cost constraints [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The oversupply pressure in 2026 is the most core driver of oil price movements. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have intensified and then weakened, and short - term price fluctuations are dominated by the uncertainty of the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine war, with the medium - term downward trend remaining intact [4]. PX & PTA - PX: Domestic PX operating rates have reached a two - year high, and PX processing fees have fallen to around $320/ton. Future supply - demand is expected to weaken. The annual average domestic PX capacity utilization rate is 91.95%, up 2.83% from last week; the Asian PX capacity utilization rate is 79.84%, up 0.66% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread has dropped to around $320/ton [4][8]. - PTA: The domestic PTA device load has decreased slightly, and the production capacity utilization rate is 77.22%, down 0.19% from last week. Factory inventories have increased slightly, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The current high - operating rate may not be sustainable, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels following the cost side. The PTA spot market price is 5068 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week [4][13]. MEG - The domestic ethylene glycol syngas device is undergoing spring maintenance, and the supply pressure has eased. The port inventory has increased again, but imports are expected to decline in January - February. In the short - term, the supply - demand is weak, with support around 3600 yuan/ton and limited rebound height. The medium - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, and it is expected to oscillate at low levels. The ethylene glycol price in East China is 3701 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from last week, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 62.69%, up 0.37% from last week [5][19]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The port inventory has continued to accumulate to a historical high, and the supply - demand pattern is overall loose, expected to oscillate widely. The pure benzene operating rate is 74.26%, down 0.12% from last week, and the inventory has reached 32.4 tons, up 0.6 tons from last week [5][27]. - Styrene: The port inventory has decreased more than expected. The short - term trend is strong, but there is a callback risk due to upstream cost constraints. The styrene operating rate is 70.86%, down 0.06% from last week, and the port inventory is 10.06 tons, down 3.17 tons from last week [5][27]. Downstream Industry - The polyester industry's average capacity utilization rate is 86.7%, down 0.46% from last week. The inventory levels of polyester staple fibers and filaments have decreased slightly. - The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises is 54.94%, down 2.95% from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 7.73 days, down 0.96 days from last week, and the average terminal weaving finished product inventory is 28.27 days, up 0.70 days from last week. The industry is in a traditional off - season, and the clothing consumption demand is weak [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, geopolitical factors bring short - term price rebounds, but the supply surplus pressure in 2026 remains the dominant factor, and significant price surges are unlikely [4] - For PX & PTA, the supply is expected to contract in January, the price trend is strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the early holiday of the terminal in early January [4] - For MEG, the price rebound is limited due to the dual - weak supply and demand and inventory reduction pressure [5] - For BZ & EB, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate widely, and the price center of styrene is expected to rise in the medium - long term [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - US WTI crude oil price is stable above $58 per barrel, with a weekly cumulative increase of over 3%. Geopolitical situations such as US actions in Venezuela and Nigeria and the attack on a Russian refinery are beneficial to the market, but supply surplus in 2026 is the core driving factor [4] PX & PTA - PX domestic load is stable, with high - level operation. There are maintenance plans in January, and the processing fee continues to rise. PTA supply tightens, with strong cost support, but the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [4] MEG - The domestic ethylene glycol (MEG) operating rate decreases, the price rebounds from the bottom. The port inventory decreases but remains high. The import volume is expected to decline, and the price rebound is limited due to dual - weak supply and demand [5][18] BZ & EB - The overseas gasoline cracking spread is weak, the support for pure benzene from overseas oil blending weakens. The pure benzene port inventory accumulates, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Styrene operating rate rebounds, and its price center is expected to rise in the medium - long term [5][27] Polyester and Terminal - The polyester industry's average operating rate is basically stable, with significant inventory reduction in polyester filament. The terminal weaving market is weak, with fewer new orders, and the production load is gradually decreasing [22] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene operating rate slightly decreases, and the styrene operating rate rebounds. The port inventories of both increase. The downstream demand shows certain resilience, and further observation is needed [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The international crude oil market is expected to remain centered around an oversupply situation for the rest of this year, suppressing prices. In the short - term, crude oil is likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. The PX & PTA market is expected to follow cost - end fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the industrial chain's negative feedback due to early terminal holidays in early January. The domestic ethylene glycol futures price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The pure benzene market is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, and the styrene price is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost end. The Chinese polyester industry shows signs of weakening demand, and the market expects no significant improvement before the Spring Festival [4][5]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - The IEA has lowered the forecast of next year's global crude oil oversupply since May, but the rest of this year will still be dominated by oversupply, suppressing prices. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts are a long - term positive factor, and the Ukraine's attack on Russian oil tankers provides short - term support, but the market's sensitivity to the Russia - Ukraine conflict is decreasing. Short - term crude oil is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. PX & PTA - The domestic PX load is stable and remains at a high level, with supply contraction expected in January due to planned maintenance. The tight supply - demand situation supports the increase in PX processing fees. The domestic PTA devices have basically remained unchanged this week, and the downstream polyester load is stable at a high level. However, the terminal weaving industry shows signs of weakening demand, and high - level operation may not be sustainable. The PTA processing margin is around 175 yuan/ton. The price is expected to follow cost - end fluctuations in the short term [4]. MEG - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has decreased this week, and the spot price in East China has fallen below 3,600 yuan/ton. Multiple devices have been shut down or reduced production due to low prices. The weakening of upstream international crude oil and coal prices has further weakened cost support. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, which is the core factor suppressing prices. With new maintenance, the inventory accumulation rate may decrease, and there may even be a slight inventory reduction. The domestic ethylene glycol futures price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [5]. BZ & EB - The domestic pure benzene load has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has rapidly accumulated due to concentrated arrivals. The overseas gasoline - blending logic in the previous market speculation has gradually subsided. The downstream is in the off - season, and demand is weak. The pure benzene market is expected to be weakly volatile. The styrene operating rate is low due to multiple maintenance operations, and the port inventory may remain balanced or slightly decrease before the end of the year. The downstream market shows a differentiated trend, and the overall demand is weak [5]. Polyester Industry - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 86.84%, a decrease of 0.6% from last week. The operating rates of short - fiber and long - fiber production have also declined. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 63.69%, a decrease of 1.82% from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 11.90 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from last week, and the average level of terminal weaving finished - product inventory is 25.58 days, an increase of 0.96 days from last week. The market expects no significant improvement before the Spring Festival [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene operating rate is 75.11%, a decrease of 0.17% from last week, and the port inventory has increased to 260,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from last week. The styrene operating rate is 68.29%, a decrease of 0.56% from last week, and the port inventory has decreased to 146,800 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from last week. The downstream PS, ABS, and EPS operating rates show different trends, and the demand resilience needs further observation [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, on November 2nd, OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Since April 2025, OPEC+ has increased production quotas by over 2.7 million barrels per day. The medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction remains, with signs of oversupply and weak demand. If geopolitical and trade situations ease and the global economy grows weakly, there may be significant inventory accumulation from late 2025 to early 2026, and Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate in the range of $55 - 65 per barrel [3]. - For PX & PTA, domestic PX plants are operating stably, and with the restart of several overseas plants, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The demand side of PTA has shown good performance due to new capacity release. In a tight - balance situation, PX prices fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PXN is supported. Recently, many PTA plants have been shut down for maintenance. There are rumors of coordinated production cuts by PTA manufacturers, but before the implementation of substantial policies, there is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation with increased supply and weak demand before the end of the year. PTA processing margins are running at a low level and are expected to follow the cost side in the short term [3]. - For MEG, the load of ethylene glycol has changed little this week. The continuous contraction of coal - based ethylene glycol profits may suppress the pace of capacity release. There is still a large amount of capacity to be put into production. With limited downstream demand growth, the short - term supply - demand pressure is high, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. Port inventories have reached a new high this year, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation by the end of the year. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the short term [4]. - For BZ & EB, the future supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high, and the overall downstream demand is currently decreasing marginally, remaining weak in the short term. The inventory in East China ports has started to accumulate, and the accumulation pattern is expected to continue. The processing profit of petroleum benzene has been in a low range. For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, but port arrivals are still normal. The operation rates of downstream 3S are hovering at a low level, and the inventory pressure of three major hard - plastic products is still high. The future supply - demand pattern of styrene is expected to show a rhythm of "phased improvement followed by renewed loosening." The high - inventory problem is difficult to solve in the short term, and the weak pattern may continue, with prices still in the bottom - seeking stage [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Since April 2025, production quotas have increased by over 2.7 million barrels per day. Medium - to long - term supply - demand contradictions remain, and prices are expected to oscillate in the $55 - 65 per barrel range [3]. PX&PTA - This week, domestic PX plants are operating stably. Overseas restarts have increased the overall operation rate. Domestic PX operation rate is high, with a domestic weekly average capacity utilization of 89.03% (+1.10% week - on - week) and an Asian weekly average of 78.9% (+5.16% week - on - week). PX - naphtha spread has reached around $250 per ton. PX prices follow crude oil prices, and PXN is supported [3][7]. - This week, the PTA spot price is 4,527 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton week - on - week), the weekly average capacity utilization is 77.9% (+1.52% week - on - week), and the in - plant inventory days are 4.09 days (+0.06 days week - on - week). Many plants have maintenance plans in November. After the commissioning of the 3 million - ton Dushan Energy Phase 4 plant at the end of October, there will be no new capacity in 2026. PTA processing margins are at a historical low of 140 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton week - on - week), and downstream demand is significantly lower than expected [3][13]. MEG - This week, the market price of ethylene glycol is 4,005 yuan/ton (- 146 yuan/ton week - on - week). The total domestic capacity utilization is 65.88% (+0.04% week - on - week), with coal - based capacity utilization at 69.29% (- 4.19% week - on - week). The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol is - 794 yuan/ton (- 197 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the profit of naphtha - based integrated production is - 135 dollars/ton (- 18 dollars/ton week - on - week). Port inventories have reached 56.4 tons (+6.5 tons week - on - week), and the supply - demand pattern shows continuous inventory accumulation [17]. BZ&EB - This week, the pure benzene operation rate is 75.14% (+1.04% week - on - week), and the styrene operation rate is 66.94% (+0.22% week - on - week). BZN has further weakened to around $75 per ton. The downstream PS operation rate is 53.5% (+1.5%), EPS operation rate is 53.9% (- 8.3%), and ABS operation rate is 71.6% (- 0.5%). The pure benzene port inventory is 12.1 tons (+3.6 tons week - on - week), and future inventory accumulation is expected. Styrene port and in - plant inventories have slightly declined after reaching the peak, and terminal demand has not shown obvious improvement [30]. Polyester Industry - This week, the average weekly capacity utilization of the domestic polyester industry is 87.38% (+0.27 week - on - week), and the comprehensive operation rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 69.45% (+0.45% week - on - week). The average terminal weaving order days are 16.10 days (- 1.76 days week - on - week). In November, the market is at the end of the traditional peak production season, and order volume has slightly declined, but there is still some support from orders for autumn - winter fabrics and next - year's spring - like fabrics. Orders are mainly for domestic restocking, and the delivery rhythm is normal, but foreign orders are still weak [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The market has been affected by short - term "small essay" disturbances, but most varieties in the energy and chemical sector are still viewed as weak. The short - term geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have weakened, and it has returned to the fundamental logic. Other varieties are also facing different supply - demand pressures and inventory situations, which affect their price trends [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the Trump - Russia Alaska meeting, the short - term geopolitical disturbances in the Russia - Ukraine situation have weakened. The crude oil market has returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating production increase of OPEC+, the pressure of crude oil surplus will gradually materialize [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillating, and the center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term pressure above the hourly - level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply side has a high operating rate of 78.18% this week, and the planned production facilities in August have been put into operation. Attention should be paid to the new production capacity in September. Although the downstream demand has increased recently, the high port inventory and the pressure of new production capacity still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of benzene ethylene shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, the market rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but it is not considered a trend reversal. The short - term pressure above is in the range of 7265 - 7290 after contract switching. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: During the rainy season in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices in Thailand are stable. The short - term improvement in the downstream tire operating rate provides support, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 15950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The high production and weak demand expectations of synthetic rubber in the medium - term have not changed. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. The supply pressure of butadiene has increased after the new device was put into operation in the third quarter. Recently, the arrival volume of butadiene has increased, and the short - term bullish factor of tight port inventory has disappeared. Coupled with the decline in the price of crude oil, the synthetic rubber is still considered bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of synthetic rubber shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 11950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the operation of PTA is stable, and the fundamentals of PX have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the movement of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term upward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased. The hourly - level structure is bullish, and the short - term support is around 6730. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: There is no significant change in the supply - side operation rate, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but attention should be paid to the change of the cost - end crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term downward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased, but the structure is weaker than that of PX and has not turned bullish. The short - term pressure above after contract switching is in the range of 4760 - 4780. The strategy is to hold short positions cautiously in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. Although the downstream operation rate has improved, the inventory at all links in the industrial chain has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the movement of crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is temporarily around 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: After the Iranian devices resumed operation, a large number of shipments have arrived at ports recently. The port inventory has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which brings pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, with high raw material inventory. The overall fundamentals are still bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, there was a positive line with a decrease in positions and an increase in trading volume, which is regarded as a rebound repair after five consecutive negative lines. The short - term pressure above is around 245 (01 contract). The strategy is to continue to hold the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking yesterday in the hourly cycle [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operation rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is obvious, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend was oscillating. After hitting a new low, it rebounded with the energy and chemical sector in the afternoon, but the trend has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is around 5060. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical varieties, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Attention should be paid to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of ethylene glycol shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, it rose sharply with increased trading volume and stood above the short - term pressure at 4385. The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level is being tested. The strategy is to take profit and leave the short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The increase in operation rate and the new production capacity have brought large supply pressure. The downstream operation rate remains at a year - on - year low, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is obvious. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is around 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has not had a substantial impact on the supply of soda ash [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of soda ash shows a downward structure. Today, there was a long negative line and a new low, and the decline has entered an accelerating stage. At the same time, the 01 contract has also broken through the support. The previous divergence structure of the 09 and 01 contracts has become unified. The strategy is to transfer the short positions of the 09 contract to the 01 contract and continue to hold [37]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The operation rate of alumina in the demand side remains high, and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains high. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [39][41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of caustic soda shows an oscillating structure. After increasing positions and rising in the afternoon today, the 15 - minute short - cycle has turned bullish, and it shows an oscillating trend at the hourly - level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a minimal actual impact on rubber, with only short - term emotional disturbances. The conflict is likely a military action, and the probability of further expansion is low as Thailand's military power far exceeds Cambodia's, and the conflict is near China [2]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by market sentiment, with prices rising and then falling. Different varieties have different market trends and investment strategies based on fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the short term, low inventory and strong demand support the price during the consumption peak season, but the peak of US crude oil processing volume and refinery operation has passed, and the mid - term pressure will gradually emerge with OPEC+ production increase [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today, it increased in volume and rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 510, but did not break through effectively [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, and move the stop - loss up to today's high of 511 [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation are at a high level, new production capacity is to be put into operation, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [9]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, oscillating today, with the support at 7375 still holding [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan support the short - term spot price, and the warm macro - commodity sentiment also helps. However, the mid - term supply will increase while demand remains weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [12]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose today and then declined in the late session, with strong pressure at 15300 [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals are poor. High tire inventory leads to low semi - steel tire operation rate, high supply and production result in slow inventory reduction, and the cost will decline with the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [16]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and may return to the upward trend, with support at 11800 [16]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak, summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is recovering. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and reversed the short - term trend, with support at 6835 [20]. - Strategy: Stop the short - position loss and wait and see on the hourly cycle [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. Summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and tested the short - term pressure at 4850 [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. (7) PP - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. New plants are planned to be put into operation from July to August, demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream operation is low. Supply and demand are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [25]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and continued to be strong, with support at 7130 [25]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Supply operation has declined but is still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is average, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are weak, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with the short - term support moved up to 2455 [27]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The short - term strong sentiment of coal pushes up the cost of chlor - alkali production, supporting the PVC price in the short term. However, demand is still weak, supply operation is at a high level, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume, rose, and then declined with a long upper shadow in the late session. Pay attention to whether a double - top is formed on the hourly line, with support at 5095 [30]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Low port inventory and recent market sentiment support the price in the short term. Pay attention to the time when inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and rose, with support at 4440 [35]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Both the operation of production facilities and downstream operation are at a low level compared to the same period. However, previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The mid - term supply - demand expectation is weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with support at 7310 [37]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [37].