GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 PX&PTA 本周px国内负荷平稳，开工维持在高位，1月份国内外仍有装置有检修计划，供应有收缩预期。整体供需偏紧的格局下支撑周内PX加工费继 续上涨。单边价格趋势偏强，PX偏紧的预期暂时无法证伪。本周国内PTA装置基本无变化。供应收紧，成本支撑偏强，单边趋势向上，库存小幅 去化，下游聚酯负荷维持高位，当前聚酯开工继续超预期，不过终端织造的订单天数和库存水平已显示需求转弱，高开工或不可持续。需要注意 1月上旬终端提前放假带来的产业链负反馈，预计价格短期内震荡偏强。 MEG 本周国内乙二醇开工率下降，现货价格触"底"回升，低价下多套装置检修、降负。本周港口库存去化，但仍处高位。乙二醇进口量有下调 预期。下游聚酯周开工环比走弱，近期聚酯产销好转，下游库存下降，终端织造季节性转弱，聚酯开工有下调预期，乙二醇供需双弱，库存持续 去化有压力。预计乙二醇价格反弹高度有限。 BZ&EB 海外汽油裂解价差偏弱，海外调油对纯苯支撑减弱。国内纯苯到港高峰虽已过，但仍有一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The international crude oil market is expected to remain centered around an oversupply situation for the rest of this year, suppressing prices. In the short - term, crude oil is likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. The PX & PTA market is expected to follow cost - end fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the industrial chain's negative feedback due to early terminal holidays in early January. The domestic ethylene glycol futures price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The pure benzene market is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, and the styrene price is expected to fluctuate weakly following the cost end. The Chinese polyester industry shows signs of weakening demand, and the market expects no significant improvement before the Spring Festival [4][5]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - The IEA has lowered the forecast of next year's global crude oil oversupply since May, but the rest of this year will still be dominated by oversupply, suppressing prices. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts are a long - term positive factor, and the Ukraine's attack on Russian oil tankers provides short - term support, but the market's sensitivity to the Russia - Ukraine conflict is decreasing. Short - term crude oil is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. PX & PTA - The domestic PX load is stable and remains at a high level, with supply contraction expected in January due to planned maintenance. The tight supply - demand situation supports the increase in PX processing fees. The domestic PTA devices have basically remained unchanged this week, and the downstream polyester load is stable at a high level. However, the terminal weaving industry shows signs of weakening demand, and high - level operation may not be sustainable. The PTA processing margin is around 175 yuan/ton. The price is expected to follow cost - end fluctuations in the short term [4]. MEG - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has decreased this week, and the spot price in East China has fallen below 3,600 yuan/ton. Multiple devices have been shut down or reduced production due to low prices. The weakening of upstream international crude oil and coal prices has further weakened cost support. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, which is the core factor suppressing prices. With new maintenance, the inventory accumulation rate may decrease, and there may even be a slight inventory reduction. The domestic ethylene glycol futures price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [5]. BZ & EB - The domestic pure benzene load has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has rapidly accumulated due to concentrated arrivals. The overseas gasoline - blending logic in the previous market speculation has gradually subsided. The downstream is in the off - season, and demand is weak. The pure benzene market is expected to be weakly volatile. The styrene operating rate is low due to multiple maintenance operations, and the port inventory may remain balanced or slightly decrease before the end of the year. The downstream market shows a differentiated trend, and the overall demand is weak [5]. Polyester Industry - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 86.84%, a decrease of 0.6% from last week. The operating rates of short - fiber and long - fiber production have also declined. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 63.69%, a decrease of 1.82% from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 11.90 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from last week, and the average level of terminal weaving finished - product inventory is 25.58 days, an increase of 0.96 days from last week. The market expects no significant improvement before the Spring Festival [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene operating rate is 75.11%, a decrease of 0.17% from last week, and the port inventory has increased to 260,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from last week. The styrene operating rate is 68.29%, a decrease of 0.56% from last week, and the port inventory has decreased to 146,800 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from last week. The downstream PS, ABS, and EPS operating rates show different trends, and the demand resilience needs further observation [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, on November 2nd, OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Since April 2025, OPEC+ has increased production quotas by over 2.7 million barrels per day. The medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction remains, with signs of oversupply and weak demand. If geopolitical and trade situations ease and the global economy grows weakly, there may be significant inventory accumulation from late 2025 to early 2026, and Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate in the range of $55 - 65 per barrel [3]. - For PX & PTA, domestic PX plants are operating stably, and with the restart of several overseas plants, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The demand side of PTA has shown good performance due to new capacity release. In a tight - balance situation, PX prices fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PXN is supported. Recently, many PTA plants have been shut down for maintenance. There are rumors of coordinated production cuts by PTA manufacturers, but before the implementation of substantial policies, there is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation with increased supply and weak demand before the end of the year. PTA processing margins are running at a low level and are expected to follow the cost side in the short term [3]. - For MEG, the load of ethylene glycol has changed little this week. The continuous contraction of coal - based ethylene glycol profits may suppress the pace of capacity release. There is still a large amount of capacity to be put into production. With limited downstream demand growth, the short - term supply - demand pressure is high, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. Port inventories have reached a new high this year, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation by the end of the year. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the short term [4]. - For BZ & EB, the future supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high, and the overall downstream demand is currently decreasing marginally, remaining weak in the short term. The inventory in East China ports has started to accumulate, and the accumulation pattern is expected to continue. The processing profit of petroleum benzene has been in a low range. For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, but port arrivals are still normal. The operation rates of downstream 3S are hovering at a low level, and the inventory pressure of three major hard - plastic products is still high. The future supply - demand pattern of styrene is expected to show a rhythm of "phased improvement followed by renewed loosening." The high - inventory problem is difficult to solve in the short term, and the weak pattern may continue, with prices still in the bottom - seeking stage [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Since April 2025, production quotas have increased by over 2.7 million barrels per day. Medium - to long - term supply - demand contradictions remain, and prices are expected to oscillate in the $55 - 65 per barrel range [3]. PX&PTA - This week, domestic PX plants are operating stably. Overseas restarts have increased the overall operation rate. Domestic PX operation rate is high, with a domestic weekly average capacity utilization of 89.03% (+1.10% week - on - week) and an Asian weekly average of 78.9% (+5.16% week - on - week). PX - naphtha spread has reached around $250 per ton. PX prices follow crude oil prices, and PXN is supported [3][7]. - This week, the PTA spot price is 4,527 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton week - on - week), the weekly average capacity utilization is 77.9% (+1.52% week - on - week), and the in - plant inventory days are 4.09 days (+0.06 days week - on - week). Many plants have maintenance plans in November. After the commissioning of the 3 million - ton Dushan Energy Phase 4 plant at the end of October, there will be no new capacity in 2026. PTA processing margins are at a historical low of 140 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton week - on - week), and downstream demand is significantly lower than expected [3][13]. MEG - This week, the market price of ethylene glycol is 4,005 yuan/ton (- 146 yuan/ton week - on - week). The total domestic capacity utilization is 65.88% (+0.04% week - on - week), with coal - based capacity utilization at 69.29% (- 4.19% week - on - week). The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol is - 794 yuan/ton (- 197 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the profit of naphtha - based integrated production is - 135 dollars/ton (- 18 dollars/ton week - on - week). Port inventories have reached 56.4 tons (+6.5 tons week - on - week), and the supply - demand pattern shows continuous inventory accumulation [17]. BZ&EB - This week, the pure benzene operation rate is 75.14% (+1.04% week - on - week), and the styrene operation rate is 66.94% (+0.22% week - on - week). BZN has further weakened to around $75 per ton. The downstream PS operation rate is 53.5% (+1.5%), EPS operation rate is 53.9% (- 8.3%), and ABS operation rate is 71.6% (- 0.5%). The pure benzene port inventory is 12.1 tons (+3.6 tons week - on - week), and future inventory accumulation is expected. Styrene port and in - plant inventories have slightly declined after reaching the peak, and terminal demand has not shown obvious improvement [30]. Polyester Industry - This week, the average weekly capacity utilization of the domestic polyester industry is 87.38% (+0.27 week - on - week), and the comprehensive operation rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 69.45% (+0.45% week - on - week). The average terminal weaving order days are 16.10 days (- 1.76 days week - on - week). In November, the market is at the end of the traditional peak production season, and order volume has slightly declined, but there is still some support from orders for autumn - winter fabrics and next - year's spring - like fabrics. Orders are mainly for domestic restocking, and the delivery rhythm is normal, but foreign orders are still weak [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The market has been affected by short - term "small essay" disturbances, but most varieties in the energy and chemical sector are still viewed as weak. The short - term geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have weakened, and it has returned to the fundamental logic. Other varieties are also facing different supply - demand pressures and inventory situations, which affect their price trends [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the Trump - Russia Alaska meeting, the short - term geopolitical disturbances in the Russia - Ukraine situation have weakened. The crude oil market has returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating production increase of OPEC+, the pressure of crude oil surplus will gradually materialize [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillating, and the center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term pressure above the hourly - level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply side has a high operating rate of 78.18% this week, and the planned production facilities in August have been put into operation. Attention should be paid to the new production capacity in September. Although the downstream demand has increased recently, the high port inventory and the pressure of new production capacity still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of benzene ethylene shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, the market rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but it is not considered a trend reversal. The short - term pressure above is in the range of 7265 - 7290 after contract switching. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: During the rainy season in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices in Thailand are stable. The short - term improvement in the downstream tire operating rate provides support, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 15950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The high production and weak demand expectations of synthetic rubber in the medium - term have not changed. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. The supply pressure of butadiene has increased after the new device was put into operation in the third quarter. Recently, the arrival volume of butadiene has increased, and the short - term bullish factor of tight port inventory has disappeared. Coupled with the decline in the price of crude oil, the synthetic rubber is still considered bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of synthetic rubber shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 11950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the operation of PTA is stable, and the fundamentals of PX have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the movement of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term upward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased. The hourly - level structure is bullish, and the short - term support is around 6730. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: There is no significant change in the supply - side operation rate, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but attention should be paid to the change of the cost - end crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term downward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased, but the structure is weaker than that of PX and has not turned bullish. The short - term pressure above after contract switching is in the range of 4760 - 4780. The strategy is to hold short positions cautiously in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. Although the downstream operation rate has improved, the inventory at all links in the industrial chain has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the movement of crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is temporarily around 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: After the Iranian devices resumed operation, a large number of shipments have arrived at ports recently. The port inventory has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which brings pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, with high raw material inventory. The overall fundamentals are still bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, there was a positive line with a decrease in positions and an increase in trading volume, which is regarded as a rebound repair after five consecutive negative lines. The short - term pressure above is around 245 (01 contract). The strategy is to continue to hold the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking yesterday in the hourly cycle [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operation rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is obvious, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend was oscillating. After hitting a new low, it rebounded with the energy and chemical sector in the afternoon, but the trend has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is around 5060. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical varieties, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Attention should be paid to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of ethylene glycol shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, it rose sharply with increased trading volume and stood above the short - term pressure at 4385. The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level is being tested. The strategy is to take profit and leave the short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The increase in operation rate and the new production capacity have brought large supply pressure. The downstream operation rate remains at a year - on - year low, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is obvious. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is around 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has not had a substantial impact on the supply of soda ash [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of soda ash shows a downward structure. Today, there was a long negative line and a new low, and the decline has entered an accelerating stage. At the same time, the 01 contract has also broken through the support. The previous divergence structure of the 09 and 01 contracts has become unified. The strategy is to transfer the short positions of the 09 contract to the 01 contract and continue to hold [37]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The operation rate of alumina in the demand side remains high, and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains high. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [39][41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of caustic soda shows an oscillating structure. After increasing positions and rising in the afternoon today, the 15 - minute short - cycle has turned bullish, and it shows an oscillating trend at the hourly - level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a minimal actual impact on rubber, with only short - term emotional disturbances. The conflict is likely a military action, and the probability of further expansion is low as Thailand's military power far exceeds Cambodia's, and the conflict is near China [2]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by market sentiment, with prices rising and then falling. Different varieties have different market trends and investment strategies based on fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the short term, low inventory and strong demand support the price during the consumption peak season, but the peak of US crude oil processing volume and refinery operation has passed, and the mid - term pressure will gradually emerge with OPEC+ production increase [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today, it increased in volume and rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 510, but did not break through effectively [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, and move the stop - loss up to today's high of 511 [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation are at a high level, new production capacity is to be put into operation, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [9]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, oscillating today, with the support at 7375 still holding [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan support the short - term spot price, and the warm macro - commodity sentiment also helps. However, the mid - term supply will increase while demand remains weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [12]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose today and then declined in the late session, with strong pressure at 15300 [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals are poor. High tire inventory leads to low semi - steel tire operation rate, high supply and production result in slow inventory reduction, and the cost will decline with the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [16]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and may return to the upward trend, with support at 11800 [16]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak, summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is recovering. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and reversed the short - term trend, with support at 6835 [20]. - Strategy: Stop the short - position loss and wait and see on the hourly cycle [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. Summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and tested the short - term pressure at 4850 [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. (7) PP - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. New plants are planned to be put into operation from July to August, demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream operation is low. Supply and demand are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [25]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and continued to be strong, with support at 7130 [25]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Supply operation has declined but is still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is average, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are weak, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with the short - term support moved up to 2455 [27]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The short - term strong sentiment of coal pushes up the cost of chlor - alkali production, supporting the PVC price in the short term. However, demand is still weak, supply operation is at a high level, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume, rose, and then declined with a long upper shadow in the late session. Pay attention to whether a double - top is formed on the hourly line, with support at 5095 [30]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Low port inventory and recent market sentiment support the price in the short term. Pay attention to the time when inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and rose, with support at 4440 [35]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Both the operation of production facilities and downstream operation are at a low level compared to the same period. However, previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The mid - term supply - demand expectation is weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with support at 7310 [37]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [37].