Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The market has been affected by short - term "small essay" disturbances, but most varieties in the energy and chemical sector are still viewed as weak. The short - term geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have weakened, and it has returned to the fundamental logic. Other varieties are also facing different supply - demand pressures and inventory situations, which affect their price trends [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the Trump - Russia Alaska meeting, the short - term geopolitical disturbances in the Russia - Ukraine situation have weakened. The crude oil market has returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating production increase of OPEC+, the pressure of crude oil surplus will gradually materialize [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillating, and the center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term pressure above the hourly - level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply side has a high operating rate of 78.18% this week, and the planned production facilities in August have been put into operation. Attention should be paid to the new production capacity in September. Although the downstream demand has increased recently, the high port inventory and the pressure of new production capacity still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of benzene ethylene shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, the market rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but it is not considered a trend reversal. The short - term pressure above is in the range of 7265 - 7290 after contract switching. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: During the rainy season in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices in Thailand are stable. The short - term improvement in the downstream tire operating rate provides support, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 15950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The high production and weak demand expectations of synthetic rubber in the medium - term have not changed. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. The supply pressure of butadiene has increased after the new device was put into operation in the third quarter. Recently, the arrival volume of butadiene has increased, and the short - term bullish factor of tight port inventory has disappeared. Coupled with the decline in the price of crude oil, the synthetic rubber is still considered bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of synthetic rubber shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 11950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the operation of PTA is stable, and the fundamentals of PX have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the movement of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term upward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased. The hourly - level structure is bullish, and the short - term support is around 6730. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: There is no significant change in the supply - side operation rate, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but attention should be paid to the change of the cost - end crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term downward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased, but the structure is weaker than that of PX and has not turned bullish. The short - term pressure above after contract switching is in the range of 4760 - 4780. The strategy is to hold short positions cautiously in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. Although the downstream operation rate has improved, the inventory at all links in the industrial chain has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the movement of crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is temporarily around 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: After the Iranian devices resumed operation, a large number of shipments have arrived at ports recently. The port inventory has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which brings pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, with high raw material inventory. The overall fundamentals are still bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, there was a positive line with a decrease in positions and an increase in trading volume, which is regarded as a rebound repair after five consecutive negative lines. The short - term pressure above is around 245 (01 contract). The strategy is to continue to hold the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking yesterday in the hourly cycle [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operation rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is obvious, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend was oscillating. After hitting a new low, it rebounded with the energy and chemical sector in the afternoon, but the trend has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is around 5060. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical varieties, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Attention should be paid to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of ethylene glycol shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, it rose sharply with increased trading volume and stood above the short - term pressure at 4385. The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level is being tested. The strategy is to take profit and leave the short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The increase in operation rate and the new production capacity have brought large supply pressure. The downstream operation rate remains at a year - on - year low, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is obvious. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is around 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has not had a substantial impact on the supply of soda ash [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of soda ash shows a downward structure. Today, there was a long negative line and a new low, and the decline has entered an accelerating stage. At the same time, the 01 contract has also broken through the support. The previous divergence structure of the 09 and 01 contracts has become unified. The strategy is to transfer the short positions of the 09 contract to the 01 contract and continue to hold [37]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The operation rate of alumina in the demand side remains high, and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains high. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [39][41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of caustic soda shows an oscillating structure. After increasing positions and rising in the afternoon today, the 15 - minute short - cycle has turned bullish, and it shows an oscillating trend at the hourly - level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a minimal actual impact on rubber, with only short - term emotional disturbances. The conflict is likely a military action, and the probability of further expansion is low as Thailand's military power far exceeds Cambodia's, and the conflict is near China [2]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by market sentiment, with prices rising and then falling. Different varieties have different market trends and investment strategies based on fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the short term, low inventory and strong demand support the price during the consumption peak season, but the peak of US crude oil processing volume and refinery operation has passed, and the mid - term pressure will gradually emerge with OPEC+ production increase [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today, it increased in volume and rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 510, but did not break through effectively [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, and move the stop - loss up to today's high of 511 [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation are at a high level, new production capacity is to be put into operation, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [9]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, oscillating today, with the support at 7375 still holding [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan support the short - term spot price, and the warm macro - commodity sentiment also helps. However, the mid - term supply will increase while demand remains weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [12]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose today and then declined in the late session, with strong pressure at 15300 [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals are poor. High tire inventory leads to low semi - steel tire operation rate, high supply and production result in slow inventory reduction, and the cost will decline with the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [16]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and may return to the upward trend, with support at 11800 [16]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak, summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is recovering. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and reversed the short - term trend, with support at 6835 [20]. - Strategy: Stop the short - position loss and wait and see on the hourly cycle [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. Summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and tested the short - term pressure at 4850 [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. (7) PP - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. New plants are planned to be put into operation from July to August, demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream operation is low. Supply and demand are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [25]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and continued to be strong, with support at 7130 [25]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Supply operation has declined but is still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is average, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are weak, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with the short - term support moved up to 2455 [27]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The short - term strong sentiment of coal pushes up the cost of chlor - alkali production, supporting the PVC price in the short term. However, demand is still weak, supply operation is at a high level, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume, rose, and then declined with a long upper shadow in the late session. Pay attention to whether a double - top is formed on the hourly line, with support at 5095 [30]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Low port inventory and recent market sentiment support the price in the short term. Pay attention to the time when inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and rose, with support at 4440 [35]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Both the operation of production facilities and downstream operation are at a low level compared to the same period. However, previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The mid - term supply - demand expectation is weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with support at 7310 [37]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [37].