小作文扰动能化午后反弹，但仍偏弱看待 逻辑：供应端最新周开工率 78.18%高位运行，8 月计划投产装置 兑现，关注 9 月新产能落地节奏，需求端近期下游开工回升，需求有 所走强，但目前同比高位的港口库存与新产能投放压力下继续累库压 力依然较大，仍偏空对待。 行情日评： （一）原油： 逻辑：周末特-普阿拉斯加会晤随未直接达成实质协议，但后会 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PX 震荡 偏多 观望 PTA 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PP 震荡 偏空 空单持有 塑料 震荡 震荡 空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 部分止盈后剩余空单持有 EG 震荡 震荡 空单止盈 橡胶 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏多 偏空 空单持有 烧碱 偏空 震荡 观望 板块观点汇总 后表态相对积极，特朗普未提对俄制裁，俄乌降温趋势短期地缘扰动 减弱，原油重回基本面逻辑，季节性需求拐点临近与 OPEC+增产加速 下原油过剩压力将逐步兑现。 日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期/跌结构，小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日日内震荡，重心继续缓 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a minimal actual impact on rubber, with only short - term emotional disturbances. The conflict is likely a military action, and the probability of further expansion is low as Thailand's military power far exceeds Cambodia's, and the conflict is near China [2]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by market sentiment, with prices rising and then falling. Different varieties have different market trends and investment strategies based on fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the short term, low inventory and strong demand support the price during the consumption peak season, but the peak of US crude oil processing volume and refinery operation has passed, and the mid - term pressure will gradually emerge with OPEC+ production increase [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today, it increased in volume and rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 510, but did not break through effectively [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, and move the stop - loss up to today's high of 511 [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation are at a high level, new production capacity is to be put into operation, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [9]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, oscillating today, with the support at 7375 still holding [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan support the short - term spot price, and the warm macro - commodity sentiment also helps. However, the mid - term supply will increase while demand remains weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [12]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose today and then declined in the late session, with strong pressure at 15300 [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals are poor. High tire inventory leads to low semi - steel tire operation rate, high supply and production result in slow inventory reduction, and the cost will decline with the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [16]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and may return to the upward trend, with support at 11800 [16]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak, summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is recovering. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and reversed the short - term trend, with support at 6835 [20]. - Strategy: Stop the short - position loss and wait and see on the hourly cycle [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. Summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and tested the short - term pressure at 4850 [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. (7) PP - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. New plants are planned to be put into operation from July to August, demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream operation is low. Supply and demand are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [25]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and continued to be strong, with support at 7130 [25]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Supply operation has declined but is still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is average, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are weak, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with the short - term support moved up to 2455 [27]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The short - term strong sentiment of coal pushes up the cost of chlor - alkali production, supporting the PVC price in the short term. However, demand is still weak, supply operation is at a high level, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume, rose, and then declined with a long upper shadow in the late session. Pay attention to whether a double - top is formed on the hourly line, with support at 5095 [30]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Low port inventory and recent market sentiment support the price in the short term. Pay attention to the time when inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and rose, with support at 4440 [35]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Both the operation of production facilities and downstream operation are at a low level compared to the same period. However, previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The mid - term supply - demand expectation is weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with support at 7310 [37]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [37].