证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业深度研究报告 推荐（维持） 海外 AI 应用：从大模型到各领域落地 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 11 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：杨玖祎 邮箱：yangjiuyi@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 338 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 60,550.68 | 4.98 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 54,914.11 | 5.60 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -5.9% | 27.2% | 31.4% | | 相对表现 | -7.4% | 5.8% | 15.4% | -10% 7% 23% 39% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-18~2025-11-14 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 《计算机 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rising popularity of AI applications, particularly in emotional companionship, driven by China's robust hardware supply chain and open-source large models, which have lowered the entry barriers for AI startups [6][7][8] - It emphasizes that the global AI application market is transitioning from conceptual hype to practical applications, with Chinese applications outperforming their American counterparts in various sectors [6][7][8] AI Application Market Trends - The user base for generative AI in China is projected to reach 515 million by June 2025, with a growth of 266 million users in just six months, indicating a penetration rate of 36.5% [7] - Chinese developers hold 22 spots in the top 50 mobile generative AI applications globally, showcasing the competitive landscape [8] - The market is dominated by low-threshold AI applications that cater to everyday needs, with practical guidance, information retrieval, and writing assistance accounting for nearly 80% of the market [8] Emotional Companion AI Applications - The emotional companion AI application Talkie has gained significant traction, achieving over 11 million monthly active users globally, primarily from the U.S. market, and generating $70 million in revenue in 2024 [9][11] - Talkie's success is attributed to its ability to provide personalized emotional support, appealing to the Z generation's desire for emotional connection [11][12] - The application employs a business model that combines advertising, in-app purchases, and subscriptions, enhancing user engagement [12] Education Sector AI Applications - The AI education sector has seen a remarkable rebound, with a 67.51% increase in monthly active users, reaching 105 million in Q3 2023 [14] - Chinese educational applications are filling gaps in overseas markets, particularly in real-time problem-solving tools, leveraging the country's strengths in exam-oriented education [15] - Gauthmath, an AI tool for education, has gained popularity, ranking first in the U.S. App Store's education category, with projected revenues exceeding $14 million this year [16] Challenges and Regulatory Environment - Despite the growth, companies face challenges such as compliance with local regulations and potential legal issues, as seen with Talkie's removal from the U.S. iOS market due to compliance conflicts [17][18] - The education sector is particularly sensitive to regulatory scrutiny, especially concerning data protection for minors, which could hinder the growth of Chinese AI companies in the U.S. [18][20] - Companies are advised to collaborate with local partners to navigate market entry and compliance challenges effectively [20]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid rise of AI applications in the education sector, driven by increased user engagement and downloads, particularly during the back-to-school season [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Education AI applications are experiencing significant growth, with some products seeing download increases close to 1000% [1] - Notable examples include "光速写作" with a 926.59% increase in downloads and "E听说中学" with a 162.37% increase in monthly active users [1] - The surge in AI education applications is attributed to heightened demand for homework assistance and problem-solving tools among students [1][2] Group 2: Key Players - Major players in the market include internet giants like ByteDance and Alibaba, educational companies like Yuanfudao and Xueersi, and emerging startups like Answer AI [2] - The competition is characterized by a mix of established educational firms and tech companies, each leveraging their unique strengths [11][18] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Download volume and monthly active users (MAU) are critical metrics for assessing the success of AI education applications [4] - In September, several apps surpassed 200 million MAU, with ByteDance's "Gauth" leading in growth [8][10] - The top educational AI apps by download volume include "小猿口算" and "Quizlet," both showing substantial month-over-month growth [6][7] Group 4: Business Models - Educational companies primarily adopt a membership model, charging around 30 yuan per month, while internet companies often provide free access to attract users [12][13] - The focus for educational firms is on monetization through premium features, while internet firms aim to build user engagement and data accumulation [12][13] Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth, the industry faces challenges such as low user willingness to pay and the accuracy of AI solutions [21][23] - Marketing strategies heavily influence the success of educational AI applications, with many relying on social media for user acquisition [24]

Regulatory Landscape - U S law mandates a ban on ByteDance-owned apps including CapCut, Gauth, Lemon8, and Coze [1] - The ban is contingent on ByteDance not selling these apps as part of the TikTok deal announced by President Trump [1]

Core Insights - Major domestic internet companies are launching cloud overseas strategies and utilizing debt financing to support these initiatives [1] - Alibaba Cloud plans to invest over 380 billion RMB in the next three years for cloud and AI hardware infrastructure, exceeding the total investment of the past decade [1] - Tencent Cloud has embraced internationalization, achieving high double-digit growth in international business over the past three years, with a doubling of overseas customer scale [2] Group 1: Cloud Overseas Strategies - Domestic internet giants are releasing cloud overseas strategic plans and leveraging debt financing to establish a foundation for these initiatives [1] - Alibaba Cloud aims to create a global cloud computing network covering China, Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas, with a unified technical architecture and service platform [1] - Tencent Cloud has completed multiple product and function upgrades to adapt to the global technology ecosystem, with over 90% of internet companies and 95% of leading gaming companies choosing Tencent Cloud for their overseas ventures [2] Group 2: AI and Cloud Integration - The demand for AI overseas from internet giants is driving rapid expansion, with Tencent integrating models, computing power, and data across various sectors [2] - Alibaba is accelerating the deployment of AI applications to support numerous AI application enterprises [2] - ByteDance's overseas AI product matrix includes various fields such as chatbots, education, and emotional companionship, while Baidu is advancing its AI applications like Robotaxi and AI cameras [2][3] Group 3: Market Demand - There is a clear demand for AI and cloud solutions from Chinese enterprises, including industry leaders like BYD and Midea, as well as emerging unicorns like miHoYo [3] - The overseas market is experiencing significant growth in demand for localized AI applications, providing new business opportunities for internet giants [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks include Alibaba Group-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Baidu Group-SW (09888) in the cloud platform sector [4] - For computing power leasing, recommended stocks are Hongjing Technology (301396.SZ), Xiechuang Data (300857.SZ), and Youfang Technology (688159.SH) [4] - In the optical communication sector, notable companies include Dekeli (688205.SH), Shijia Photon (688313.SH), and Guangku Technology (300620.SZ) [5]

Regulatory Landscape - U S law mandates a ban on ByteDance-owned apps including CapCut, Gauth, Lemon8, and Coze, pending a sale within the TikTok deal [1] Corporate Action - The ban is contingent on ByteDance selling the specified apps as part of the TikTok deal announced by President Trump [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report focuses on the commercialization progress of AI applications, highlighting significant advancements in various sectors, including large models, AI video, AI programming, and enterprise-level AI software [4][28] - The report emphasizes the rapid growth in token consumption for AI applications, indicating accelerated commercialization and the emergence of new revenue streams [4][15] - Key companies in the AI space are experiencing substantial valuation increases, with several achieving over $1 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) [16][21] Summary by Sections 1. AI Application Overview: Acceleration of Commercialization - AI applications are witnessing a significant increase in token consumption, reflecting faster commercialization progress [4] - Major models like OpenAI have achieved an ARR of $12 billion, while AI video tools are approaching the $100 million ARR milestone [4][15] 2. Internet Giants: Recommendation System Upgrades + Chatbot - Companies like Google, OpenAI, and Meta are enhancing their recommendation systems and developing independent AI applications [4][26] - The integration of AI chatbots into traditional applications is becoming a core area for computational consumption [14] 3. AI Programming: One of the Hottest Application Directions - AI programming tools are gaining traction, with companies like Anysphere achieving an ARR of $500 million [17] - The commercialization of AI programming is accelerating, with several startups reaching significant revenue milestones [17][18] 4. Enterprise-Level AI: Still Awaiting Large-Scale Implementation - The report notes that while enterprise AI has a large potential market, its commercialization has been slower compared to other sectors [4][25] - Companies are expected to see significant acceleration in AI implementation by 2026 [17] 5. AI Creative Tools: Initial Commercialization of AI Video - AI video tools are beginning to show revenue potential, with companies like Synthesia reaching an ARR of $100 million [15][21] - The report highlights the impact of AI on content creation in education and gaming [4][28] 6. Domestic AI Application Progress - By mid-2025, China's public cloud service market for large models is projected to reach 537 trillion tokens, indicating robust growth in AI applications domestically [4] 7. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the AI sector, showcasing significant increases in their market valuations and ARR figures [16][22]

Core Insights - The article discusses the latest updates from a16z's Top 50 AI Products list, highlighting the increasing presence of Chinese teams in both Web and App categories, with a notable trend of more products from these teams entering the rankings [5][8]. Web Products - The latest list features 11 new products, with 4 confirmed from Chinese developers, including Manus, Quark, and Qwen, indicating a strong performance from Chinese companies in the Web sector [26][27]. - Manus, developed by Monica.ai, has gained significant traction since its launch, achieving a website traffic of 17.55 million in July, although it has seen a decline from its peak earlier in the year [27]. - Quark and Qwen, both from Alibaba, ranked 9th and 20th respectively, with Quark being positioned as a "super search product" integrating AI capabilities [28][30]. App Products - The App category saw 14 new entries, with 8 from Chinese teams, including products from Meitu and Yingxiao Technology, which have successfully penetrated the Top 50 [11][12]. - Meitu's products have collectively entered the Top 50, benefiting from strategic growth operations and social media trends [17][18]. - Yingxiao Technology's YouCut and Peachy have also made it to the Top 50, focusing on niche markets with simple interfaces and essential functionalities [20][24]. Performance Metrics - YouCut and Peachy reported Monthly Active Users (MAU) of 21.47 million and 2.73 million respectively, showcasing their popularity in the market [24]. - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous innovation and market adaptation for Chinese developers to maintain their presence in the rankings, as evidenced by the increasing number of products entering the Top 50 [35].

Core Insights - The article discusses the latest Top 100 GenAI Consumer Apps list released by a16z, highlighting the significant presence of Chinese-developed applications, particularly in the mobile segment, where nearly half of the top 50 products are from Chinese teams [1][3]. Group 1: New Products and Trends - The ecosystem is stabilizing, with 11 new web products added, driven by traffic growth, while 14 new mobile products were introduced due to increased enforcement against "ChatGPT clones" [3][4]. - Notable newcomers in the web segment include Quark, Qwen3, and Manus from China, with Lovable and Replit showing rapid growth in AI coding [4][5]. - In the mobile segment, products like PixVerse, AirBrush, Wink, and Gauth are also from Chinese teams, with PixVerse achieving nearly $2.5 million in ARR shortly after launch [5][6]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Google has made significant strides, with four web products entering the list, and Gemini capturing about 12% of ChatGPT's web traffic, while its mobile MAU is half that of ChatGPT [7][9]. - Google Labs has seen a traffic surge of over 13% following the release of Veo 3, indicating strong consumer interest in its AI offerings [12][13]. - Grok has surpassed 20 million MAU, with a 40% increase in usage after the release of its new model, while Meta AI's growth remains slow, particularly in the mobile segment [14][17]. Group 3: Chinese Teams' Dominance - Chinese teams dominate the mobile segment, with 22 out of the top 50 products developed by them, primarily focusing on photo and video applications [24][27]. - Meitu has five products in the top rankings, while ByteDance contributes with AI education and image/video editing products [25][26]. - The advantage of Chinese teams in video models is attributed to a larger pool of researchers and less stringent intellectual property regulations [27][28]. Group 4: Vibe Coding and Retention - The Vibe Coding category has seen new entrants like Lovable and Replit, with a top-tier platform showing a 100% revenue retention rate among users in the initial months [30][33]. - The growth of Vibe Coding platforms has positively impacted the traffic of products built on them, indicating a robust ecosystem [36][41]. Group 5: All Stars and Geographic Distribution - The "All Stars" list features 14 companies consistently in the top 50, including ChatGPT, Midjourney, and Hugging Face, with a mix of proprietary models and those using external APIs [44][46]. - These All Stars are distributed across five countries, with significant venture capital backing, highlighting the global nature of the AI landscape [47][50].

Core Viewpoint - ByteDance is reportedly planning to launch an AI phone, tentatively named "Doubao Phone," by the end of this year or early next year, with ZTE as the ODM manufacturer for production. However, ByteDance has denied any plans to release its own phone products, focusing instead on exploring AI capabilities for various hardware manufacturers [1][3]. Group 1: AI Hardware Developments - ByteDance has previously ventured into hardware, launching educational products like the Dali Smart Learning Lamp in 2020, but faced regulatory challenges leading to a reduction in its education business [3]. - In 2021, ByteDance acquired Pico, marking a significant step in its hardware strategy. Pico expanded its team and released new products, achieving a leading position in the domestic VR market, but has since faced business contraction and staff reductions starting in 2023 [3][4]. - ByteDance has made recent acquisitions, including the headphone brand Oladance, and is reportedly developing lightweight mixed reality (XR) glasses to compete with similar products from Meta [3][4]. Group 2: AI Ecosystem and Strategy - ByteDance has established a comprehensive layout in the AI hardware sector, integrating various devices such as phones, headphones, and glasses to create a closed-loop experience that combines software and hardware [4]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI models, recently open-sourcing the M3-Agent framework, which outperforms models like GPT-4o in various tests [4]. - ByteDance's AI applications, including products like Gauth and Cici, have rapidly gained traction both domestically and internationally, with Gauth reportedly serving educational resources to 300 million users globally [4]. Group 3: Future Directions - ByteDance appears to be moving towards a "soft and hard integration" ecosystem, similar to international competitors like Apple and Meta, as a strategic choice and a necessary response to competition [5].