每经评论员 朱成祥 阔别15年，英伟达CEO黄仁勋再访韩国。一声"伙伴"，一杯啤酒，黄仁勋同韩国财阀在酒桌上相谈甚 欢，真实意图恐怕是借"战队"结成的友谊，来缝合英伟达算力帝国两大关键隐忧。 本周，英伟达成为首个市值突破5万亿美元的企业，仿佛是扼住了通往AI时代的咽喉。但风光的背后， 英伟达在供应和市场两方面也存在一定的隐忧。三星和韩国市场，或将成为弥合这两大隐忧的一个关 键。 因此，10月的最后一天，当黄仁勋与三星电子会长李在镕、现代汽车集团会长郑义宣这三位科技与制造 业巨头，在首尔一家名为"Kkanbu Chicken"的炸鸡店里高举啤酒杯时，这不仅仅是简单的聚会，更像是 一次精心布局的战略宣告。在近千民众的围观和全球媒体的聚光灯下，黄仁勋用最接地气的方式，完成 了一次高规格的"合纵连横"。 "Kkanbu"，在韩语中意为"挚友、队友"，是纪念童年友谊的符号。黄仁勋此举，向韩国两大财阀传递了 一个明确的信号：我们不是简单的供应商与客户，而是休戚与共的"伙伴"。 英伟达AI霸权的核心武器是GPU（图形处理器），而GPU的生产当前高度依赖台积电。此外，GPU也 需要HBM（高带宽存储）提供显存支持。 随着全球 ...

Core Insights - The memory prices are expected to surge in 2025, with DDR4 prices more than doubling, indicating a significant investment opportunity in the memory sector [1] - The demand for memory and storage is skyrocketing due to applications in consumer electronics and AI models, leading to a price increase across the industry [1] - This price surge is creating a favorable environment for domestic memory chip manufacturers in China, providing them with unprecedented market opportunities [1] Part 1: What are Storage Chips? - Storage chips are a major segment of the semiconductor industry, acting as the "memory center" for electronic devices, responsible for storing data and instructions [1] - They offer advantages such as small size and fast storage, enabling cost-effective computing solutions [1] Part 2: Storage Market Enters a "Volume and Price Rise" Cycle - According to CFM's report, enterprise SSD prices are expected to rise over 10%, while DDR5 RDIMM prices may increase by 10% to 15% [5] - The current price increase is driven by a surge in AI computing demand, supply chain adjustments, and production cuts by manufacturers [5][7] - The storage industry is entering a new upward cycle, with server demand recovery and AI server deployment being the core drivers of this price increase [7] Part 3: Domestic Replacement Faces a "Golden Window" - Global supply shortages in storage chips are creating significant market entry opportunities for domestic manufacturers [8] - Domestic brands like Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies are gaining traction as local clients accelerate product validation and procurement [8] - The acceptance of domestic storage solutions is increasing, with expectations that 2025-2026 will be a critical period for enhancing domestic market share [8] Part 4: Investment Logic: From Individual Manufacturers to Full Industry Chain Layout - Investment perspectives are shifting from focusing on individual manufacturers to a broader view of the entire industry chain [12] - Midstream companies, such as memory controller chip and module manufacturers, are particularly sensitive to price fluctuations, which can significantly enhance their profit margins [12] - The most certain opportunities may arise from upstream semiconductor equipment and materials, as domestic manufacturers will need to invest heavily in equipment to expand production [13] Part 5: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - The construction of a wafer fab involves over 70% of investment in equipment, with domestic equipment rates currently low [13] - As domestic storage manufacturers expand, there will be a direct increase in demand for domestic equipment [13] - The semiconductor materials sector also faces significant opportunities for growth, particularly in high-end materials, as domestic production capabilities improve [14]

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI has partnered with Broadcom to develop a custom AI accelerator with a capacity of 10 gigawatts, marking a significant step in enhancing its computational infrastructure for AI systems [3][6]. Group 1: Partnership Details - OpenAI and Broadcom will collaborate on designing and deploying a custom AI accelerator and network systems, with deployment expected to start in the second half of 2026 and complete by the end of 2029 [3][6]. - The partnership is expected to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of AI infrastructure by integrating Broadcom's accelerators and Ethernet solutions [6]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the partnership, Broadcom's stock price surged over 10% during trading [4]. - OpenAI's collaborations with Broadcom, AMD, and NVIDIA collectively involve a total computational capacity of 26 gigawatts, indicating a robust strategy to secure diverse AI chip sources [5][7]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - OpenAI's CEO highlighted that significant investments in infrastructure represent a strategic gamble for the company, emphasizing the importance of resource allocation in building powerful AI systems [7]. - The collaboration with Broadcom allows OpenAI to diversify its chip suppliers beyond the GPU-focused companies like NVIDIA and AMD, enhancing its capabilities in AI chip development [7][8]. Group 4: Financial Arrangements - The agreement with AMD includes the issuance of warrants for up to 160 million shares at a price of $0.01 per share, while NVIDIA plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI [8]. - OpenAI is also collaborating with memory chip manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix to ensure a steady supply of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for its infrastructure needs [8].

为OpenAI保障算力供应的盟友越来越多了。 为OpenAI保障算力供应的盟友越来越多了。 北京时间10月13日晚间，OpenAI和定制ASIC（专用集成电路）厂商博通宣布达成合作，双方将合作开发10吉瓦的定制人工智能加速器，OpenAI将设计加 速器和系统，与博通合作开发和部署。博通将从2026年下半年开始部署相关人工智能加速器和网络系统机架，并于2029年年底完成。 受消息影响，博通盘中涨超10%。 近日OpenAI CEO山姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）在一个访谈中提到，基础设施领域的巨额投资是公司层面的一次战略豪赌，机会一生一次。OpenAI的核心 使命是构建功能强大的AI系统，要达成这一目标，需要在基础设施建设、产品开发及基础研究等领域投入海量资源，基础设施是他目前时间投入最多的 领域。 此前与AMD达成的协议中，涉及AMD向OpenAI发行最多1.6亿股的AMD普通股认股权证，每股价格仅0.01美元。英伟达则计划向OpenAI投资最多1000亿 美元。随着OpenAI大规模部署这两家的芯片，英伟达的注资将逐步到位，OpenAI也能够以较低价格购入AMD股份。为支持基础设施建设，OpenAI近 ...

Summary of Longxin Storage Conference Call Industry Overview - The global DRAM market is experiencing an upward demand trend, driven by traditional demand recovery and emerging applications such as artificial intelligence, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 5% [3][4] - The Chinese market accounts for over 30% of the global DRAM market, with a projected growth rate of around 8%, primarily supported by the consumer electronics and automotive industries [3][4] Company Insights: Longxin Storage - Longxin Storage, established in 2016, is currently undergoing IPO counseling and is expected to accelerate its listing process [2] - The company holds less than 10% of the global DRAM market share but has significant growth potential, particularly in the domestic market, where its share could increase to over 30% [5][6] Production Capacity - As of the end of 2024, global DRAM monthly production capacity is approximately 1.8 million wafers, expected to rise to 1.9-2 million wafers by the end of 2025 [6] - Longxin Storage's monthly production capacity is projected to grow from 200,000 wafers at the end of 2024 to 300,000 wafers by the end of 2025, representing about 15.6% of global capacity and a year-on-year increase of 50% [6] Product Development - Longxin Storage is transitioning from DDR4 to DDR5, launching a new 16GB DDR5 product using a 16nm process [7] - The expected market share for DDR5 shipments is projected to increase from nearly 1% in Q1 2025 to around 7% by Q4 2025, while LPDDR product share is expected to rise from 0.5% to 9% [7] Upstream Equipment and Material Opportunities - The expansion of Longxin Storage's capacity and product iteration will drive demand for upstream equipment and materials [8] - Key companies to watch in the semiconductor equipment sector include North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and Huahai Qingke [8][9] Future Investment Opportunities - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) sector is highlighted as a significant area for investment, with expectations for domestic HBM supply chain breakthroughs by 2026 [10] - Specific investment opportunities in the HBM supply chain include wafer manufacturing companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei, and testing and packaging companies like Jingzhida and Xinyuanwei [11][12] Conclusion - Longxin Storage is positioned for substantial growth within the DRAM market, with a focus on expanding production capacity and transitioning to advanced memory technologies. The overall DRAM market is set for growth, particularly in China, with various upstream and HBM-related investment opportunities emerging in the semiconductor sector.

Core Insights - OpenAI is forming strategic partnerships with chip suppliers, specifically AMD and NVIDIA, to secure AI chip supply and infrastructure development [1][2][3] Group 1: OpenAI and AMD Partnership - AMD issued warrants to OpenAI allowing the purchase of up to 160 million shares at $0.01 each, potentially giving OpenAI about 10% ownership of AMD [1][2] - The partnership aims to meet the growing global demand for AI, with AMD's CEO stating it will create a win-win situation for both companies [2] - The first tranche of shares will vest with the deployment of 1 GW of AMD GPUs, with further vesting tied to the scale of deployment and AMD's stock performance [2][3] Group 2: Financial Implications - AMD expects the partnership to generate hundreds of billions in revenue and enhance its non-GAAP earnings per share [2] - The final vesting of shares is contingent on AMD's stock reaching a target price of $600 per share by the warrant's expiration date in October 2030 [2][3] Group 3: OpenAI and NVIDIA Partnership - NVIDIA plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, contingent on the construction and deployment of AI data centers [1][3] - The first NVIDIA systems are set to be deployed in late 2026, with investments being released progressively as the data center project advances [3] Group 4: Broader Supply Chain Strategy - OpenAI is also collaborating with memory chip manufacturers Samsung and SK Hynix to secure high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply, aiming for a monthly production of 900,000 DRAM wafers [3] - This multi-faceted approach ensures OpenAI's computational power supply through various partnerships with leading chip manufacturers [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market in China, with a focus on the banking and semiconductor industries, as well as the broader implications of the "anti-involution" theme in various sectors [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Trends**: The A-share market is expected to experience a "mean reversion" trend characterized by "East rising, West declining" dynamics, driven by long-term capital allocation and a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding tariffs [1][2]. 2. **Anti-Involution Theme**: The "anti-involution" theme is particularly evident in the banking and semiconductor sectors, aiming to lower prices to reduce real interest rates and convert savings into consumption, which is anticipated to last for one to two years [1][3][4]. 3. **Defensive Strategy Against U.S. Competition**: China should adopt a defensive strategy to enhance domestic purchasing power by lowering domestic prices, while being cautious of U.S. efforts to support India as an alternative to Chinese low-end manufacturing [5]. 4. **Asset Allocation Recommendations for 2025**: Suggested allocations include overweighting sectors such as banking, telecommunications, technology, military informationization, high-dividend stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum [1][6][7]. 5. **Correlation Between U.S. and Chinese Markets**: There is a notable correlation (70%-80%) between the trading behaviors of strong sectors in both markets, particularly those related to AI and military information technology [1][8]. 6. **Long-term Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: The implementation of anti-involution policies should be gradual to avoid economic stagnation, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and ensuring that policies do not negatively impact economic growth [9][4]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Market Behavior and Economic Indicators**: The recent upward movement in the U.S. stock market is attributed to the development of the AI industry and the influence of populist policies, which may mitigate short-term risks [34][35]. 2. **Inflation Expectations**: Inflation expectations are particularly sensitive for growth stocks, and current observations indicate a failure of inflation trading strategies in both the U.S. and China [17]. 3. **Geopolitical Factors**: The reduction of geopolitical risks, such as the easing of U.S. software restrictions and potential resolutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could lead to decreased inflationary pressures in the future [18]. 4. **Investment in High-Growth Assets**: High-growth assets, particularly in AI, are projected to see significant demand increases, with growth rates expected to be around 15%-18% from 2024 to 2030 [19][20]. 5. **Sector Performance**: The performance of sectors such as gold and Bitcoin is highlighted, with both showing resilience against U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating their potential as investment vehicles [33]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market trends, strategic recommendations, and the broader economic context affecting the A-share market and related sectors.

Group 1 - The continuous demand for AI chips has significantly increased the need for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which relies heavily on CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) packaging technology [1][3] - CoWoS technology, developed by TSMC, allows for efficient integration of multifunctional chips in a compact space, enhancing chip performance, particularly for AI chips [3][7] - TSMC's CoWoS technology is currently monopolizing the advanced AI chip packaging market, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 40% for the advanced packaging market in the coming years [7][10] Group 2 - TSMC plans to increase its CoWoS production capacity from 36,000 wafers per month in 2024 to 90,000 by the end of this year and aims for 130,000 by 2026 [8] - The core challenge in CoWoS technology lies in achieving high yield rates during the packaging process, which is crucial for minimizing losses in HBM and other devices [10][14] - Domestic companies are actively developing similar CoWoS packaging technologies, with key players including Shenghe Jingwei and Tongfu Microelectronics, both facing common industry challenges [18][19] Group 3 - Shenghe Jingwei is recognized as a leading player in advanced packaging in China, focusing on Chiplet packaging and achieving significant revenue growth, with a reported revenue of $270 million in 2022 [19] - Tongfu Microelectronics primarily serves the domestic market and has faced challenges in overseas collaborations, including a failed partnership with AMD for CoWoS packaging [20][21] - Other companies, such as Yongxi Electronics, are also entering the advanced packaging market, leveraging their existing 2.5D packaging technology to potentially expand into HBM packaging [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Company ASMPT reported better-than-expected orders for Q2 2025, but profit improvement fell short of expectations, with revenue of HKD 3.4 billion (USD 436 million), a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.9% [1] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was HKD 3.4 billion (USD 436 million), with a gross margin of 39.7%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.33 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.19 percentage points [1] - Profit for Q2 2025 was HKD 1.34 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 62.5%, primarily influenced by a one-time tax credit [1] - New orders in Q2 2025 totaled USD 482 million, exceeding expectations [1] Business Segmentation - In H1 2025, 30% of revenue came from computer terminals, up from 7% in the same period of 2024, while automotive electronics accounted for 15%, down from 24% in 2024 [2] - Semiconductor revenue in Q2 2025 was USD 258 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, although orders decreased by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter and 4.6% year-on-year [2] - SMT business received USD 269 million in orders in Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.2% [2] Growth Outlook - The company is experiencing growth in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and advanced logic, with TCB (Thermal Compression Bonding) orders increasing by 50% year-on-year in H1 2025 [1] - The company has completed equipment installations for major clients in the HBM sector and has begun small-scale production for HBM4 [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company raised its revenue forecast for 2025 by 2% to HKD 14.238 billion but lowered its profit forecast by 21% to HKD 988 million [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 26.6x for 2025 and 16.8x for 2026, with a target price of HKD 72, indicating a potential upside of 14% from the current price [2]