穆迪首席经济学家马克·赞迪警告称，美国总统特朗普要求房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）购买2000亿美元抵押贷款债券的指令可能会适得其反，推高房价，而不是解决美国"严重的住房 负担能力问题"。 虽然特朗普声称他的行政命令将通过降低月供来恢复"负担能力"并带回"美国梦"，但赞迪认为该计划忽 视了基本的经济学。 在特朗普的命令发布后，美国固定抵押贷款利率下降了10-20个基点，至略高于6%的水平。 然而，赞迪警告说，这种缓解只是假象。他认为，虽然较低的利率将支持住房需求，但"严重的住房短 缺"意味着，在其他条件不变的情况下，这一刺激措施将"导致房价上涨"。 赞迪表示，此举"对降低购房成本几乎没有帮助"，因为现金的涌入会推高有限的住房库存的价格，抵消 利率略微降低带来的好处。 赞迪指出了与美联储有关的更深层次的制度冲突。他表示，尽管美联储在去年12月重新转向量化宽松政 策，但它仍然"允许其持有的MBS（抵押贷款支持证券）提前支付并到期"。 赞迪警告称，特朗普要求政府支持企业（GSD）大举购买这些债券的命令，实际上"抵消了美联储"管理 其抵押贷款组合的"努力"。 他将这项指令描述为白宫" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve plans to purchase $40 billion of short-term U.S. Treasury securities monthly, exceeding market expectations, which has led to revisions in debt issuance forecasts for 2026 and a decrease in borrowing costs [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve will begin purchasing short-term U.S. Treasuries this Friday to alleviate short-term interest rate pressures by rebuilding reserves in the financial system [2]. - Barclays estimates that the Fed's total purchases of short-term Treasuries could reach $525 billion by 2026, significantly higher than the previous forecast of $345 billion [2]. - The net issuance of short-term Treasuries for private investors is expected to drop from $400 billion to $220 billion due to the Fed's actions [2][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Major banks, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, anticipate that the Fed will absorb a larger amount of debt, with Bank of America suggesting that the Fed may need to maintain this accelerated purchasing pace for a longer duration [2][3]. - Strategists believe that these measures will help alleviate market pressures accumulated from the Fed's previous balance sheet reductions, benefiting swap spreads and the SOFR-federal funds rate basis trades [2][7]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Analysts from various banks, including CIBC and Deutsche Bank, note that while the Fed's aggressive purchasing indicates a low tolerance for financing pressures, it may not completely eliminate market volatility [3][6]. - The Fed's actions are seen as a proactive measure to manage the transition to an "ample" reserve level, indicating a more cautious approach compared to 2019 [6]. - The anticipated monthly purchase of $40 billion is viewed as a high-end estimate, with adjustments likely based on the Fed's liability needs [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market since 2025, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, high interest rates, and the performance of residential RMBS [1]. Group 1: Event Background - The MBS market has been experiencing continuous changes since 2025, driven by multiple factors including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the high interest rate environment [1]. - Understanding the dynamics of the Agency RMBS market is crucial for assessing the pressures and opportunities facing MBS demand and refinancing activities in a high-rate environment [1]. Group 2: Event Information - The event is scheduled for September 3, 2025, from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM, and will be held online via Tencent [2]. - The agenda includes presentations on mortgage market dynamics, MBS trading practices, and an overview of the Yield Book's prepayment model [2]. Group 3: Speakers - Hui Ding, the Head of RMBS Research and Modeling at LSEG, has nearly 20 years of experience in the securitization product industry [6]. - Helen Zhang, the Head of Research Model Development at LSEG, has a background in technology and finance, particularly in securitized products [7]. - Irene Shi, a Senior RMBS Researcher at LSEG, focuses on market research and quantitative modeling related to agency RMBS [8]. Group 4: Yield Book Overview - Yield Book has been a reliable source for fixed income analysis for 35 years, offering extensive features for in-depth security and portfolio analysis [11]. - The platform provides market-leading models and derivative analysis solutions, enabling clients to maintain a competitive edge [16]. Group 5: Applications of Yield Book - Yield Book's data and models assist in identifying interest rate and credit risks, crucial for achieving robust financial performance [18]. - The platform offers deep insights into investment strategies, helping clients efficiently allocate their portfolios [19]. - Yield Book serves as a comprehensive solution for pre-trade and post-trade analysis, ensuring accurate assessments of cash flow engines and prepayment/default models [20].