泡泡玛特与游戏重申推荐 20260210 摘要 多模态能力提升和 IP 价值受关注，影视内容制作公司和核心 IP 公司股价 上涨，多模态方向在内容产品和 IP 源头均是重要催化剂。OpenAI 计划 测试 GPT 广告应用，预示海外大模型商业化加速，应关注海外大模型变 现主线及相关广告营销公司。 泡泡玛特底部反弹近 50%，得益于市场对空投叙事脱敏及二三线 IP 如 新星人、Punkie、SP 通过新产品形态或联动活动取得成功。2025 年底 注册会员破 1 亿，50%为新增，海外市场通过改善供应链和物流取得成 效。 泡泡玛特 2026 年增长点包括：头部 IP 拉布布稳定增长，收入预计达 100-130 亿元；二线 IP 放量；产能扩张，单月毛绒产能达 5,000 万只； 新店开设；与 LV、苹果等异业品牌合作推出联名产品。 拉布布作为核心 IP，收入占比预计维持在公司总收入的 30%左右，即 130 亿人民币。二线 IP 如星星人、Cry Baby、Ziska 和小野等展现快 速增长，星星人糖胶毛绒系列在抖音首发销量超 15 万件，公司资源倾 斜二线 IP。 Q&A 近期 AI 板块的表现如何？有哪些值得 ...

Summary of XunCe Technology Conference Call Company Overview - XunCe Technology is the only full-chain data service provider in China comparable to Palantir, covering data acquisition, cleaning, standardization, real-time computing, and large model tuning. The company is expected to capture over 11% market share in the asset management industry by 2024, ranking first in revenue [2][4][11]. Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, XunCe's revenue is projected to grow by over 124%, maintaining a gross margin above 70%. The core asset management business has an even higher gross margin, with stable growth in customer payments [2][5][6]. - Despite a slowdown in UP value growth in 2024 due to reduced fees in financial asset management, recovery is anticipated as contributions from other industries increase [5][6]. Investment and Market Position - The company has received multiple rounds of investment from top institutions such as Tencent, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and Yunfeng Fund, indicating strong long-term confidence in its business [2][7]. - XunCe ranks fourth in the real-time data industry, following Alibaba Cloud, Huawei Cloud, and Tencent [4]. Business Model and Solutions - XunCe offers modular solutions that have expanded from asset management to retail, renewable energy, and telecommunications, utilizing subscription and transaction-based revenue models [2][9]. - The company provides around 300 functional modules to meet real-time customer needs, with installation times ranging from 1 to 7 days [4]. Industry Dynamics - The KTV industry is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2024 to 2029, with XunCe projected to grow faster than the industry average due to its leading position [2][11]. - The current market penetration rate for XunCe is only 3.6%, with a market share of 11.6%, indicating significant growth potential [2][13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company's strategy includes deepening customer cooperation, horizontal expansion into adjacent industries, and overseas expansion, with plans to establish subsidiaries in Singapore, Japan, and Europe [3][15]. - XunCe's management team has a strong background in technology and finance, enhancing its competitive edge [8]. Competitive Advantages - Over 67% of XunCe's workforce is dedicated to technology research and development, with a unified data solution accuracy rate of 100% [2][14]. - The company has a unique ability to connect physical and virtual data, which is crucial for its competitive positioning in the market [29]. Future Growth and Industry Expansion - XunCe plans to focus on emerging sectors such as robotics, commercial aerospace, and aviation in 2026, aiming to create specialized data platforms for these industries [24]. - The company is cautious about entering new industries, evaluating factors such as gross margin migration cycles and customer data service maturity [22][23]. Customer Engagement and Payment Models - The willingness to pay among non-asset management clients has significantly increased, with new clients often paying much higher fees than traditional asset management clients [26]. - XunCe's revenue model is primarily based on annual fees to ensure timely adjustments and outputs, reflecting a continuous payment structure [21]. Conclusion - XunCe Technology is positioned as a leader in the data service industry with strong financial growth, a robust business model, and significant expansion plans. The company's strategic focus on technology and customer relationships, combined with its unique market position, provides a solid foundation for future growth and industry leadership [2][11][15].

Summary of Pop Mart (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group Ltd - **Industry**: Pop toy industry - **Market Cap**: HK$361,948 million (US$46,316 million) [6] Key Points 1. IP-Centric Diversification Strategy - Pop Mart's strategy focuses on diversifying its intellectual property (IP) portfolio to mitigate cyclical risks and stimulate new demand. The recent collaboration, Skullpanda x My Little Pony, has shown significant interest, particularly on social media platforms like Instagram [1][3]. 2. Growth in APP Engagement - There has been a notable increase in mobile app downloads and active users, particularly in China and the US, attributed to new product releases. This trend is expected to continue during the upcoming Chinese New Year Golden Week [2][10]. 3. Emerging IPs Beyond LABUBU - Other IPs such as SKULLPANDA, TWINKLE TWINKLE, and CRYBABY are becoming significant growth drivers, with over 400 million units sold across all IPs in 2025. The interest in these non-LABUBU IPs in international markets may be underestimated [3][4]. 4. Overseas Market Potential - The sustainability of Pop Mart's growth is debated, particularly regarding the US market. The company is focusing on localized operations and collaborations to enhance its global presence. The total addressable market (TAM) for overseas markets is substantial, and improvements in organizational structure and supply chain are expected to drive expansion [4][22]. 5. Financial Performance - **Earnings Summary**: - 2023: Net Profit of RMB 1,082 million, EPS of RMB 0.807 - 2024: Net Profit of RMB 3,125 million, EPS of RMB 2.346 - 2025E: Net Profit of RMB 13,549 million, EPS of RMB 10.158 - 2026E: Net Profit of RMB 18,357 million, EPS of RMB 13.763 - 2027E: Net Profit of RMB 23,163 million, EPS of RMB 17.366 [5][8]. 6. Investment Recommendation - Pop Mart is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HK$415, representing a potential upside of 53.8%. The expected total return is 55.5%, with a dividend yield of 1.7% [6][24]. 7. Risks - Key risks include rising competition in the pop toy market, potential disappointments in global expansion, challenges in IP commercialization, and regulatory changes. Despite a high-risk rating, qualitative factors such as execution capability support the investment thesis [25][26]. 8. Market Position - Pop Mart is recognized as the largest pop toy company in China, with a growing global footprint. The company aims to capture the emerging trend of "spiritual consumption" among younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, through its diverse IP characters and marketing strategies [22][23]. 9. Valuation Metrics - The company trades at a premium compared to global peers due to its rapid growth driven by overseas expansion. The valuation is supported by a strong growth profile and execution capabilities [24]. 10. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory through innovative product offerings and effective IP management, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [1][4][23].

Summary of Kingsoft Cloud (KC) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingsoft Cloud (KC) - **Market Cap**: $3.7 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $4.0 billion - **Industry**: China Internet Verticals Key Points and Arguments Investment Upgrade - **Rating Upgrade**: KC upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a 12-month target price of $15.60, implying a 16.2% upside from the current price of $13.42 [1] Revenue Growth Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Anticipated revenue from Xiaomi to increase by 10-15% in 2026E-27E, leading to a 37% revenue CAGR from Xiaomi in 2025E-28E [1] - **Overall Revenue Forecast**: KC's revenue forecast for 2026E-28E is 14% above the Visible Alpha consensus, modeling a 22% revenue CAGR [1] AI Investment and Demand - **Xiaomi's AI Investment**: Xiaomi plans to increase its AI investments to Rmb10 billion in 2026E, up from Rmb7 billion+ in 2025, which is expected to benefit KC significantly [1] - **AI Revenue Contribution**: AI-related revenue is projected to account for 58% of total revenue by 2028E, up from 31% in 2025 [24] Customer Base and Revenue Sources - **Revenue from Major Customers**: By 2028E, Xiaomi and Kingsoft combined are expected to account for 39% of KC's revenue, up from 20% in 2024 [34] - **Third-Party Revenue Growth**: KC's third-party public cloud revenue is expected to grow from +7%/15% YoY in 2024/2025E to +25% YoY in 2026E, indicating strong demand from other internet and AI companies [2] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Projections**: - 2026E Revenue: Rmb12,087 million - 2027E Revenue: Rmb14,780 million - 2025E Revenue: Rmb9,515.8 million [6] - **EBITDA Projections**: - 2026E EBITDA: Rmb3,523.9 million - 2027E EBITDA: Rmb4,749.9 million [6] Capital Expenditure and Funding - **Capex Growth**: Projected capex of Rmb9 billion in 2026E, representing a 30% YoY growth, supported by a stronger balance sheet post-Rmb4 billion equity capital raised in 2025 [18] - **Funding Sources**: Prepayments from Xiaomi and major third-party customers are expected to cover at least a quarter of chip procurement capex [18] Market Dynamics - **Cloud Pricing Trends**: Rising upstream costs (GPU/CPU and memory) are making cloud pricing more dynamic. KC is expected to maintain profitability rather than pursue market share aggressively [19] - **Competitive Positioning**: KC's focus on premium customers (top 5 customers accounted for 75% of public cloud revenue in 2025E) allows it to be less affected by price changes compared to long-tail customers [19] Risk Factors - **Profitability Concerns**: KC's gross profit margin is projected to be 16-17% on average in 2026E-28E, which is significantly lower than competitors like AliCloud [20] - **Debt and Cash Flow**: KC is expected to have a net debt position and negative free cash flow over the next 4-5 years, which poses risks to its financial stability [20] Additional Important Insights - **Customer Segmentation**: The top five customers are expected to account for a significant portion of revenue, indicating a concentrated customer base [36] - **Future AI Models**: Xiaomi's upcoming AI models are expected to drive further demand for AI training clusters, enhancing KC's growth prospects [2] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Kingsoft Cloud's financial outlook, market positioning, and growth strategies in the context of increasing AI investments and evolving market dynamics.

Summary of Montage Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Montage Technology - **Ticker Symbols**: 688008.SS (A-shares), 6809.HK (H-shares) - **Industry**: Semiconductor, focusing on memory interface and connectivity solutions - **Market Share**: Approximately 40% in the global memory interface market - **Key Products**: Memory interface solutions (RCD/DB), PCIe retimers, server platform solutions, etc. [33][40] Core Insights - **Investment Rating**: Montage-H initiated with a Buy rating and a target price (TP) of HK$205, reflecting a 10% discount to Montage-A's TP of Rmb205 [1][4] - **Stock Performance**: Montage-A shares have increased by 35% year-to-date, outperforming the SSE Index, which rose by 2% [1] - **AI Infrastructure Growth**: The company is positioned as a direct beneficiary of AI capital expenditures, with expectations for increased demand in memory interfaces and MRDIMM due to agentic AI developments [1][3][21] Financial Forecasts - **Revenue and Earnings Growth**: Revenue forecasts for Montage-A have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of Rmb5,593 million for 2025E, Rmb7,463 million for 2026E, and Rmb10,030 million for 2027E [13][20] - **Profit Margins**: Gross profit margins are projected to improve, with gross margins expected to reach 62.2% by 2027 [20] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to grow from Rmb1.96 in 2025E to Rmb4.08 in 2027E [20] Market Dynamics - **AI Capex Catalyst**: Anticipation of positive announcements regarding AI capital expenditures in China's upcoming 15th Five Year Plan, which could further enhance Montage's market position [21][22] - **Technological Advancements**: The transition to DDR5 technology is expected to drive ASP and margin improvements, alongside new connectivity solutions [34][42] Risks - **Downside Risks**: Key risks include potential slowdowns in AI infrastructure capex, market share loss to international competitors, and delays in product migration and development [37][43] - **High-Risk Rating**: Montage-H is rated high-risk due to its short trading history, although fundamentals remain strong [38] Additional Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: Positive feedback from investors highlights Montage as a unique AI investment opportunity within the Chinese semiconductor sector, attributed to its growth outlook and technological advantages [2] - **Product Pipeline**: Montage has a clear product pipeline and upgrade cadence, which is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge [2] Conclusion Montage Technology presents a compelling investment opportunity driven by its strong market position in the semiconductor industry, particularly in AI-related applications. The company's financial forecasts indicate robust growth, supported by favorable market dynamics and technological advancements. However, investors should remain cautious of potential risks that could impact future performance.

中国 证券研究 2026 年 2 月 9 日 中国人工智能行业 全球布局与模型创新驱动新一代领军者；首次覆盖智谱 和 MiniMax，给予"增持"评级 我们认为，中国人工智能行业正从"百模大战" 阶段，迈向以商业化落地 能力、模型创新实力及全球化布局为决定成败之关键的阶段。我们认为， MiniMax 和智谱（Zhipu AI/Z.AI）脱颖而出，已成为最具特色的两家独立大 语言模型开发商，海外布局不断加速：MiniMax 目前超过 70%的收入来自海 外市场，两家企业均在通过全球开发者生态落地快速推进 API 业务的规模化 扩张。海外布局不仅实现了收入来源的多元化、推动毛利率提升，更彰显了 二者的全球竞争力。我们自下而上的分析预测，到 2030 年全球 AI 市场规模 将达到 1.4 万亿美元，其中 B2B 应用市场规模约 1.1 万亿美元，B2C 应用市 场规模约 3,000 亿美元，两大板块均具备广阔的发展空间。尽管两家企业自 近期上市后股价出现显著上涨，我们仍建议投资者布局。我们首次覆盖智谱 （2513 HK）和 MiniMax（100 HK），给予"增持"评级，截至 2026 年 12 月的目标价分别 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's revenue increased by over 200% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing nearly fourfold [2][3] - The revenue growth forecast for Q3 2025 is close to 250%, with overseas market growth nearing four times [2][3] - Despite strong financial performance, the stock price fell nearly 50% from its peak in August 2025 to early 2026, indicating a significant divergence from fundamentals [2][3] Market Sentiment and Concerns - There is a shift in sentiment among overseas hedge funds, with short positions increasing from 1% to 9% since late August 2025, while southbound capital holdings rose from 13% to 20% [2][3] - Market concerns include the potential peak of IP popularity, slowing short-term growth, valuation discounts, and the impact of expanded supply on secondary market prices, which could affect core fan demand [2][5] Strategic Responses - Pop Mart is diversifying its IP portfolio (e.g., Dimoo, SP) and product forms (e.g., plush toys, electronic products) to address market concerns [2][6] - The success of the Lazhu Bu IP has not only boosted short-term performance but also attracted new user demographics, breaking the perception that trendy toys are limited to PVC figures [2][11] Global Expansion Strategy - The company emphasizes local cultural integration in its global market expansion, successfully launching localized IPs like Cray Baby in Thailand and Star People in North America [4][12] - Pop Mart aims for a sales target of 50 billion RMB in 2026, with equal contributions from domestic and international markets, indicating significant growth potential [4][16] Innovation in IP and Product Development - Pop Mart has evolved from relying on a single IP (Molly) to a diverse portfolio, including multiple high-revenue IPs and innovative product forms [6][10] - Recent product innovations include the electronic wooden fish and Star People, which have been well-received and are expected to drive future growth [17] Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for Pop Mart is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by the development of local and subcultural symbols [13][16] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its established IP incubation mechanisms and expand its global footprint through localized strategies and physical store openings [23] Specific IP Developments - The Lazhu Bu IP has undergone significant evolution, adapting to market demands and maintaining its appeal through various iterations [18][19] - The Star People IP has shown strong potential, with a rapid iteration cycle and effective marketing strategies leading to substantial revenue growth [21][22] Additional Important Insights - The market's perception of the sustainability of IP popularity and the potential for a sharp decline in demand remains a critical concern [5] - Pop Mart's ability to manage the lifecycle of its IPs effectively, including revitalizing older IPs, has proven successful in maintaining market value [14][15]

Summary of Pony AI Inc. (PONY) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pony AI Inc. (PONY) - **Industry**: Autonomous Vehicle Technology, specifically focusing on Robotaxi services Key Financial Insights - **2025 Profit Alert**: Pony AI projects a net loss of **US$126 million to US$143 million** for 2025, with a positive net income expected in **4Q25** ranging from **US$14 million to US$31 million**, a significant improvement from a previous estimate of a **US$56 million net loss** [1][3] - **Investment Gains**: The anticipated positive net income in 4Q25 is attributed to gains from fair value changes in investments in publicly traded companies [1] - **Revenue Growth**: Continued strong revenue growth is expected, driven by the expansion of the Gen-7 Robotaxi fleet and deeper cooperation with taxi operators [1] Operational Strategy - **Asset-Light Strategy**: Pony AI is advancing its asset-light operating model through a strategic partnership with ATBB Travel & Express Service Co. Ltd for Robotaxi fleet deployment, primarily targeting business travel and airport transfers [2] - **R&D Investment**: The company plans to maintain its R&D spending to support technology development, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency as the Robotaxi fleet scales up [3] Earnings Revision - **Revised Estimates**: Following the profit alert, net loss estimates for 2025-2028 have been revised, with a reduction in net profit estimates for 2029-2032 by **11% to 3%** due to a higher operating expense ratio [3][7] - **Operating Metrics**: The operating loss for 2025 is revised to **US$289 million**, with EBITDA expected to be **US$276 million** [7] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: The 12-month target price for Pony AI is set at **US$30.5**, based on a discounted EV/EBITDA method with a multiple of **16.5x** for 2031E EBITDA [9] - **Discount Rate**: The valuation applies a cost of equity (COE) of **11.5%**, factoring in an equity risk premium of **6.5%** and a risk-free rate of **3.0%** [9] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: The company faces several risks including regulatory challenges, supply chain issues, robotaxi market growth, personal information security, infrastructure limitations, pricing competition, and product liability [10] Market Position - **Market Capitalization**: Pony AI's market cap is approximately **US$4.6 billion** with an enterprise value of **US$4.2 billion** [12] - **Revenue Projections**: Revenue is projected to grow from **US$75 million in 2025** to **US$3.985 billion by 2032**, indicating a robust growth trajectory [8][12] Conclusion Pony AI is positioned for significant growth in the autonomous vehicle sector, particularly with its Robotaxi services. The company is focusing on an asset-light model and strategic partnerships to enhance its operational efficiency while navigating various risks associated with the industry. The revised financial outlook reflects a more optimistic view for the latter part of 2025, supported by investment gains and revenue growth from fleet expansion.

Summary of Eastroc Beverage Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Eastroc Beverage (605499.SS) - **Market Cap**: Rmb154bn as of February 3 close - **Recent Listing**: HK listing with gross proceeds of HK$10.14bn Key Industry Insights - **Energy Drinks Market**: - Per-capita intake in China (~8L) is significantly lower than Thailand (~11L), indicating growth potential [2][13] - Sales growth in regions outside Guangdong shows nearly 50% in Southwest and over 70% in North China [2] - The sports drink market in Mainland China is projected to reach Rmb43.5bn by 2025, growing at mid-teens% annually [6] Financial Performance and Projections - **Earnings Growth**: - Projected earnings CAGR of 26% from 2025 to 2027, with specific growth rates of 34% in 2025, 27% in 2026, and 24% in 2027 [1][24] - 2026/27E P/E ratios are 27x and 22x, respectively, which is a significant discount compared to peers like Monster and Celsius [1][27] Product and Market Strategy - **New Product Launches**: - Strong execution in new product roll-outs, particularly with the sports drink "Bushuila," which is expected to continue doubling sales [2][8] - The company is investing in lower-sugar versions to drive further penetration in the market [2] - **International Expansion**: - Strategic partnership with Salim Group for entry into the Indonesian market, involving a total investment of US$300mn [8] - The Indonesian energy drink market is estimated at US$240mn in 2025, with low per capita consumption (0.9L) compared to Thailand and Vietnam [8] Margin and Cost Structure - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: - Expected overall GPM margin expansion of approximately 1 percentage point year-over-year in 2026E [7] - Cost benefits from key inputs like sugar and PET are anticipated to contribute to margin improvements [7][20] Risks and Challenges - **Market Risks**: - Potential for lower industry growth in energy drinks and a worsening competitive landscape [28] - Risks associated with the ramp-up of new product launches and geographical expansion [29] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - **Price Target**: - 12-month target price set at Rmb323, based on a 32x 2026E P/E [27] - Current share price at Rmb274.51, indicating an upside potential of 17.7% [30] Conclusion - Eastroc Beverage is positioned for strong growth driven by product innovation, market expansion, and favorable cost dynamics, despite facing certain market risks. The investment recommendation remains a "Buy" based on attractive valuation metrics and growth potential.

Nio is one of the first pure EV start-ups in China and has 3 brands in its portfolio: the Nio brand focuses on the premium BEV segment, the Onvo brand focuses on the mid-end family market, and the Firefly brand focuses on family-oriented niche boutique market. The company has been losing NEV market share since 2020 (3.9%) to 2.0% in 2024 on intensifying competition. Looking ahead, we see improved model competitiveness and stepped-up new model pipeline into 2026, with two new launches (i.e. L80 and ES9) as w ...