然而，这恰恰是MMT理论的薄弱之处。其中一个原因是，低通胀假设过于乐观。过去很长一段时间的 全球低通胀环境有其特殊性：全球化带来的物美价廉的商品供应、人口红利带来的充裕劳动力、技术进 步带来的生产效率提升。当这些有利因素开始逆转时，美国等经济体通胀的韧性可能超出MMT的预 期。 特约评论员顾经纬 2024年初至今，国际金价从每盎司2000美元左右一路飙升至5000美元左右，涨幅超过100%。然而，同 期美国国债实际收益率（以10年期为例）始终围绕1.9%的中枢窄幅震荡，波动区间为1.6%至2.3%，既 无趋势性上行，也无明显下行。 按照传统分析框架，实际利率与金价一般呈现高度负相关——实际利率上升意味着持有黄金的机会成本 增加，金价理应承压；反之亦然。但市场走出了并不相同的路径，笔者认为，这源于黄金定价逻辑发生 了变化。 过去黄金价格分析有一条被广泛认可的核心逻辑：实际利率决定金价方向。这条逻辑的运行机制是：实 际利率上升时，持有黄金的机会成本增加，黄金作为无息资产吸引力下降，金价承压；实际利率下降 时，情况则相反。在这一核心逻辑之上，分析师通常还会关注美元走势和通胀预期这两个辅助变量。 然而，这一框架建立在 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the parent company of RT-Mart, Gao Xin Retail, announced it is temporarily unable to contact its Executive Director and CEO, Li Weiping, while business and operations continue to function normally [2]

Core Insights - Google DeepMind's launch of Project Genie has raised concerns about the impact of AI tools on the gaming industry, leading to significant stock declines for companies like Unity and Take-Two [1][3] - Project Genie is a generative AI model capable of creating real-time rendered, interactive 3D virtual scenes, but it still faces limitations in editing capabilities and detail refinement [1][3][4] - The gaming industry is recognizing the revolutionary potential of AI models, but there are ongoing debates about their application and the associated compliance issues [2][6] Group 1: Market Reactions - Unity's stock fell by 24.22%, marking its largest single-day drop since 2022, while Take-Two and Roblox also experienced significant declines of 7.93% and 13.17%, respectively [1] - The release of Project Genie has sparked intense discussions within the industry, with many companies expressing mixed feelings about AI's role in game development [6][7] Group 2: AI Model Limitations - Project Genie currently lacks "editable" attributes, making it difficult for developers to adjust scenes and interactions, which are crucial for the competitive edge of open-world games [3][4] - The model's early-stage development means it does not yet significantly impact the business models or competitive landscape of game engines and developers [4] Group 3: Potential Benefits - Smaller and independent game developers may leverage Project Genie to enhance their product quality and reduce the gap with larger firms [5] - The real-time generation capability of AI could expand the possibilities for game formats, particularly in open-world exploration games, enhancing user engagement [5][12] Group 4: Industry Perspectives - A significant portion of game developers (over 50%) believe that generative AI has a negative impact on the industry, a sentiment that has increased compared to two years ago [7] - Some companies, like Games Workshop and Hooded Horse, have implemented strict policies against the use of AI in content creation, reflecting a cautious approach to AI integration [7][8] Group 5: Future Directions - The industry is moving towards a more nuanced understanding of AI's role, shifting from a binary "yes or no" stance to more refined operational models [10] - There is a call for the development of AI application platforms and support systems to facilitate the integration of AI into game development processes [11]

"诺和诺德在2025年依然稳居GLP-1领域龙头，但增速放缓与政策压力显现，未来需在减重市场巩固优 势的同时，加快口服剂型和新兴适应症的布局。"上述分析师认为，全球竞争将呈现"疗效+价格+渠 道"三维博弈，礼来的替尔泊肽是诺和诺德司美格鲁肽最有力的挑战者，而中国企业的崛起可能在中期 改变市场格局。 2月3日，诺和诺德发布2025年财报。数据显示，诺和诺德全年营收3090.64亿丹麦克朗（约合489亿美 元），同比增长6%，净利润1024.34亿丹麦克朗（约合162亿美元），同比增长1%。其中，司美格鲁肽 作为"王牌单品"贡献了361亿美元销售额，同比增长超过10%。 有券商医药行业分析师对21世纪经济报道记者表示，整体来看，诺和诺德在全球糖尿病及肥胖治疗领域 依旧保持领先，但增速较过去几年有所放缓，显示政策环境对高价创新药的盈利模式构成挑战。 例如，替尔泊肽前三季度销售额248亿美元，与司美格鲁肽全年361亿美元的差距正快速缩小。2025年， 全球"药王"究竟花落谁家？一场围绕减重质量、给药方式和全球市场的新战役已经打响。 "王牌"产品成增长引擎 一直以来，各大跨国药企纷纷积极进行产品布局，力图凭借强大的研发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has surged from around $2,000 to approximately $5,000 per ounce since early 2024, reflecting an increase of over 100%, while the actual yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has remained stable around 1.9% [1] Group 1: Changes in Gold Pricing Logic - Traditional analysis suggests a strong negative correlation between actual interest rates and gold prices, where rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus pressuring its price [1] - The shift in gold's pricing logic is attributed to a fundamental change in its role, transitioning from a tool for hedging inflation to an "absolute value" asset that does not rely on sovereign credit backing [3][6] - The modern monetary theory (MMT) posits that governments issuing their own currency theoretically will never run out of money, but it faces challenges regarding inflation management [4] Group 2: Implications of Persistent Inflation - High inflation can lead to a debt crisis by pushing bond yields higher, which in turn increases borrowing costs for governments, creating a negative feedback loop between inflation and fiscal health [5] - As inflation erodes the purchasing power of currencies like the dollar, trust in these currencies diminishes, prompting investors to seek alternative assets like gold [6] - The investment attributes of gold have shifted from being an inflation hedge to a credit hedge, emphasizing its role as a safe haven when confidence in fiat currencies wanes [6] Group 3: Strategic Considerations for Investors - The significance of gold allocation has changed, with a focus on long-term positioning to hedge against potential declines in currency credit risk rather than short-term trading [7] - The correlation between gold and equities or bonds may evolve, with gold potentially rising alongside risk assets during periods of heightened credit risk [7] - Monitoring signals of dollar credit risk is crucial, as persistent inflation, rising debt pressures, and expanding fiscal deficits will enhance the value of gold as a strategic asset [7]

比特币引领的抛售潮加速，加密货币主要币种持续下挫，截至北京时间7:10，比特币跌近4%报72646美元/枚，SOL重挫逾7%，ETH、XPR跌超4%。最 近24小时，全球共有超14万人被爆仓。 2月5日，黄金白银直线拉升，截至北京时间7:15左右，黄金重新站上5000美元关口，白银同步走强，现货白银小幅上涨报89.08美元/盎司，COMEX白银 涨超4%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 5011.790 | 43.484 | 0.88% | 16.06% | | 伦敦银现 | 89.080 | 0.391 | 0.44% | 24.45% | | COMEX黄金 | 5015.9d | 65.1 | 1.31% | 15.00% | | COMEX白银 | 88.100d | 3.704 | 4.39% | 24.12% | 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，在多位中东领导人当日下午紧急游说特朗普政府放弃退出谈判的威胁后，原定于6日举行的美伊核谈判计划得以恢复，谈 判将在阿曼举行。美国稍早前曾拒绝伊朗将原定 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese AI industry is entering a new phase of commercial validation and large-scale application, with companies like Zhiyuan Huazhang, MiniMax, and others recently listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - Despite advancements, domestic chip manufacturers face significant challenges due to reliance on NVIDIA's ecosystem, which limits their competitiveness in the market [1][3] - The focus is shifting from achieving absolute computing power to enhancing system efficiency and application relevance, with an emphasis on "domestic adaptation" to improve computational efficiency [1][6] Industry Challenges - The AI application landscape in China has shown remarkable vitality, with models like Qianwen and Zhiyuan GLM performing competitively on benchmarks, yet 99% of AI applications still rely on NVIDIA's infrastructure [3][4] - The entrenched NVIDIA ecosystem, developed over nearly two decades, presents high migration costs for AI companies, complicating the transition to domestic solutions [4] - Domestic chips often struggle with performance and integration issues, leading to a cycle of low adoption and slow ecosystem improvement, which in turn keeps production costs high [4][5] Opportunities for Collaboration - The shift in AI development towards continuous and decentralized inference presents an opportunity for domestic chip manufacturers to differentiate themselves [6] - Collaboration between model and chip developers is essential to address ecological challenges, moving beyond simple hardware deployment to full-stack optimization [6][7] - Initiatives like the "Model-Chip Ecological Innovation Alliance" aim to bridge the technical barriers between chips, models, and platforms, focusing on cost reduction and scalable AI applications [7]

今日关注 1、商务部定于2月5日举行新闻发布会，介绍近期商务领域重点工作有关情况。 4、文化和旅游部表示，大陆方面将于近期恢复上海居民赴金门、马祖旅游。目前各项工作正在积极筹 备中。 5、《黄金行业"十五五"发展规划（讨论稿）》专家研讨会在京召开。院士专家指出资源保障是黄金行 业稳健发展的根基所在。要持续推进新一轮找矿突破战略行动，加快突破2000米以下深井开采、氰渣综 合利用等先进技术、装备的研发与应用。 投资要闻 1、中证数据最新数据显示，1月份市场新开融资融券账户19.05万户，环比增长29.5%，同比增长 157.09%。截至1月末，市场两融账户总数已达1580.16万户。 2、据华尔街见闻，中财期货在近期白银价格暴跌前成功建立大规模空头头寸，据测算获利超过5亿美 元。上期所数据显示，截至2月2日，中财期货已建立相当于约484吨白银期货的空头头寸，按当前价格 计算价值超过15亿美元。 2、光伏行业2025年发展回顾与2026年形势展望研讨会于2月5日举办。 宏观经济 1、商务部就欧委会对中国风电企业启动《外国补贴条例》（FSR）深入调查表示，欧方滥用调查，不 仅严重干扰中欧产业互利合作，还将迟滞自身乃 ...

美东时间周三，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，仅道指飘红小幅上涨，纳指、标普指数、中概股指数集体下跌。消息面上，美国就业数据疲软，中东局势趋 缓，AI芯片需求波动，投资者对成长股估值与经济韧性信心承压，风险偏好趋于谨慎。 | 道琼斯工业 | 纳斯达克指数 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 49501.30 | 22904.58 | 6882.72 | | +260.31 +0.53% -350.61 -1.51% | | -35.09 -0.51% | | 美国科技七巨头 中概科技龙头 | | 中国金龙 | | 64399.36 | 4085.64 | 7461.61 | | -862.73 -1.32% -117.72 -2.80% | | -148.40 -1.95% | 科技股普跌，脸书、英伟达、特斯拉跌超3%，谷歌跌近2%。 中概新能源股逆势走强，亿鹏能源狂飙近58%，晶科能源涨超8%，阿特斯太阳能涨逾3%。消息面上，马斯克团队密访中国多家光伏企业，晶科能源直线 涨停，光伏股集体拉升。 费城半导体指数大跌超4%，AMD跌超17%，该公司预计季度营收小幅下滑。存储概念跌幅居前，闪 ...

步入2026年，全球经济在多重挑战中展现出超预期的韧性。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最新发布的《世界经济展望报告》中将2026年全球经济增长预期小幅上调 0.2个百分点至3.3%，世界银行也同步上调了增长预期。两大机构指出，尽管面临贸易摩擦加剧、地缘 政治紧张等不确定性因素，但人工智能（AI）投资扩大、金融环境宽松以及主要经济体财政政策的支 持，共同构成了经济的"减震器"。 近日在香港举行的第19届亚洲金融论坛期间，万亿资产管理机构DWS全球首席投资总监Vincenzo Vedda 接受了21世纪经济报道记者的专访。 他认为，当前市场的高估值并非泡沫，而是由扎实的企业盈利与人工智能驱动的生产力革命所支撑，这 异于上世纪90年代的"非理性繁荣"。这种"繁荣"的可持续性，最终将取决于经济增长能否切实兑现。 针对目前热门的黄金话题，Vedda鲜明地指出，黄金已成为当前投资组合中不可或缺的"必选项"。其逻 辑在于，黄金与传统资产相关性极低，是有效的风险分散工具，且受到全球财政赤字高企、央行持续购 金等结构性因素的长期驱动。 对于股票市场，他则强调AI投资需采取精选策略："投资者需尤其关注人工智能价值链上的关键'瓶颈 ...