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财通基金金梓才:流动性改善叠加AI加速兑现 A股市场环境将更加友好
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:46
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to enter a development phase characterized by improved overall conditions and deepening structural features by 2026, driven by enhanced global liquidity and the acceleration of trends represented by AI [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment is anticipated to improve, with both global and domestic liquidity conditions providing a solid foundation for the market. The Federal Reserve is expected to accelerate interest rate cuts in 2026, reducing external constraints on the A-share market, while domestic monetary policy will continue to support high-quality economic development and industrial upgrades [1] - The AI industry is projected to transition from rapid penetration in 2025 to a phase of further performance realization and deep impact in 2026, with indications that growth momentum will not only sustain but may accelerate, leading to profound changes in corporate productivity and business models [1] Group 2 - The A-share market in 2026 is likely to exhibit significant structural characteristics driven by leading companies and fundamentals. This will manifest in three aspects: a highly structured market favoring a few technology growth leaders with real and sustainable performance, deep barriers to entry for leading companies, and a focus on fundamental-driven investment logic [2] - Leading companies are expected to achieve high certainty growth due to their critical roles in the global AI supply chain, leveraging technological barriers and customer loyalty [2] - The investment strategy for 2026 will hinge on accurately identifying and focusing on high-quality leading companies with stable industry positions, strong growth sustainability, and reasonable valuations, capitalizing on core opportunities within the structural market [2]
银华基金李晓星:AI行业进入“从1到10”阶段 国产算力和AI应用胜率较高
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:45
Group 1 - The overall performance of the equity market in 2025 was strong, with technology stocks, particularly those related to computing power, showing significant gains and becoming a key factor in fund investments [1] - In 2026, the impact of prices on nominal growth is expected to decrease, leading to a more certain recovery in China's nominal economic growth. Domestic consumption of goods is at a reasonable level, but service consumption remains notably low compared to the global average [1] - Fiscal spending is shifting from "investment in objects" to "investment in people," with resources increasingly directed towards education, healthcare, and social security, which are expected to stimulate consumption potential [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the equity market in 2026 suggests that overall opportunities outweigh risks, despite some overheating in certain sectors of AI-related technology stocks. The development of the AI industry in China is expected to accelerate due to the engineer dividend [2] - The AI industry is entering a phase of rapid growth, with many companies expected to enter a fast development period. There is a particular focus on domestic computing power and AI applications as high-probability investment directions [2] - The central economic work conference indicates that domestic demand growth will play a more significant role in economic construction, with consumer-related stocks showing potential for higher returns, although their performance has been average recently [2]
中金公司李求索:两大因素共振 支持A股新年表现
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:42
Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of the international order and China's industrial innovation will support the performance of A-shares in 2026, with a market trend expected to rise initially and then stabilize [1] Group 1: Growth Areas - The AI sector is anticipated to enter an application realization phase, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, leaning towards domestic solutions [1] - On the application side, focus areas include robotics, consumer electronics, intelligent driving, and software applications [1] Group 2: External Demand - The trend of going global and exposure to the U.S. market suggests attention to sectors such as home appliances, engineering machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and globally priced resources like non-ferrous metals [1] Group 3: Cyclical Reversal - Attention should be given to sectors nearing improvement inflection points in supply and demand or those supported by policies, including chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [1] Group 4: Market Policy Expectations - There is an expectation for capital market policies to further promote a "long-term" and "steady" market, enhancing capital market openness in the context of international monetary system restructuring and global capital reallocation [1] - This includes expanding the scope of foreign investment, encouraging the internationalization of Chinese securities firms, and supporting financing for innovative enterprises while optimizing mechanisms for long-term capital market entry [1]
国联民生证券包承超:市场从估值驱动转向盈利驱动
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:40
Core Viewpoint - The market profitability is expected to continue recovering in 2026, with liquidity remaining loose, shifting the core market driver from valuation to profitability [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditional growth momentum and emerging industries are expected to work in tandem, leading to improved competition in traditional sectors and a rise in domestic inflation [1] - Fiscal policies are anticipated to create new demand in the domestic market, while the resonance of domestic and international technology industries will accelerate capital inflow into emerging sectors [1] Group 2: Industry Structure - The technology sector is projected to maintain absolute returns driven by profit growth, although the gap with consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors will gradually narrow [1] - Despite high profit growth in the technology sector due to expanding capital expenditure in artificial intelligence, the current valuation levels of the tech industry and the overall market show a significant disparity, making further valuation increases challenging [1] - Traditional sectors such as consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing are expected to see a gradual rebound in profit growth, with certain supply-demand balanced industries showing substantial profit elasticity [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is increasing market and policy focus on new productive forces, with expectations that more emerging industries will be influenced by domestic policies in 2026, creating additional investment opportunities [1]
国金证券牟一凌:市场脱离低回报区域 可布局四条主线
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:40
Group 1 - The chief strategist of Guojin Securities, Miao Yiling, predicts that the ROE of the A-share non-financial real estate sector will increase from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" zone to a higher profitability phase [1] - Miao suggests four main investment lines: industrial resources, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a focus on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the U.S. and Europe are experiencing characteristics such as "investment stronger than consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, with an increase in foreign tourists due to trade settlement rate recovery and visa-free entry, leading to improved net profit margins in industries such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverages [2] - In terms of funding, there is a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" investments, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their allocation to equities; the policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage will resonate with the recovery of the non-bank sector and ROE [2]
兴业证券张启尧:更多行业步入盈利复苏通道
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:40
Core Viewpoint - The chief strategist of Industrial Securities, Zhang Qiyao, indicates that the recovery of fundamentals is expected to support further market growth by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - By analyzing the performance of listed companies in the first three quarters of 2025, it is observed that revenue has stabilized, but gross margins are still declining, indicating that pricing remains a major drag on profitability [1] - Since the second half of 2025, policies promoting "de-involution" have led to a rebound in prices in resource sectors, which has improved gross margins [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - For 2026, nominal economic recovery and price increases are projected to be the most evident trends in the market [1] - According to the latest IMF forecast, China's nominal GDP growth rate in USD terms is expected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, with continued improvement in listed company profits [1] - The ongoing global liquidity easing is likely to result in a sustained upward trend in the A-share market in 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Configuration - The market is currently in a structural recovery phase in 2025, with significant differentiation in industry prosperity, leading to a focus on eliminating weaker sectors [1] - As more industries enter the profitability recovery phase in 2026, the market allocation logic may shift from internal competition within sectors to identifying leading industries [1] - Key areas of focus include trends in the AI industry, the "price increase chain," the "overseas expansion chain," and the structural recovery of domestic demand [1]
2026宏观经济十大看点
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:39
Group 1: Fiscal Policy - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with an expected fiscal deficit scale of no less than 4.06 trillion yuan, maintaining a deficit rate of at least 4% [3] - The new special bonds limit may increase from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2026 to support major project construction and real estate market adjustments [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to remain moderately loose, with a CPI growth target set around 2%, allowing for traditional monetary policy operations like rate cuts [4] - Structural monetary policy operations will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and aiding small and medium enterprises [4] Group 3: Consumption and Income Growth - Expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption, is a primary task for 2026, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer purchasing power [5][6] - The "Urban and Rural Residents Income Growth Plan" is anticipated to be implemented, aiming to enhance the income capacity of residents and stimulate consumption [6] Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize in 2026, with government investment playing a crucial role in driving this recovery [7] - Infrastructure investment will accelerate with the commencement of new major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market will focus on "de-stocking" as a primary task in 2026, with policies to optimize housing policies and increase support for home purchases [8] Group 6: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market will undergo comprehensive reforms to support technological innovation and improve the market's inclusivity and adaptability [9][10] - Measures will be taken to enhance investor experience and broaden channels for long-term capital investment [10] Group 7: Market Competition and Regulation - Efforts to address "involution" in competition will continue, with new regulations expected to enhance market access and fair competition [11] - The establishment of a national unified market construction regulation is anticipated to provide a framework for market entry and quality standards [11] Group 8: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The integration of technological and industrial innovation will be a key focus, with initiatives to promote AI applications across various sectors [12] - The expansion of international technology innovation centers in major regions will facilitate resource integration and innovation [12] Group 9: State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - A new round of state-owned enterprise reforms will focus on optimizing the layout of state-owned economies and enhancing modern enterprise systems [13][14] - The reforms will also emphasize strategic mergers and acquisitions to improve resource allocation efficiency [14] Group 10: Social Welfare and Employment - Policies aimed at improving employment and income distribution will be prioritized, with measures to support job retention and increase minimum wage standards [15]
摩尔线程创始人、董事长兼首席执行官张建中:为中国式现代化注入澎湃算力
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:39
Core Viewpoint - The company aims to accelerate the application of domestic GPUs across various industries, contributing to the digital transformation and efficiency enhancement in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Industry Context - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a grand vision for emerging and future industries, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements [1] - The company positions itself as a leading domestic full-function GPU enterprise, focusing on the design and research of full-function GPU chips [1] Group 2: Company Strategy and Achievements - The company has established a complete technology stack based on a self-developed unified architecture, covering the entire spectrum from hardware to applications [1] - The company maintains high levels of R&D investment, with the number of authorized patents ranking among the top in the domestic GPU sector [1] - The integration of solid patent achievements with comprehensive product capabilities forms a technological moat centered on continuous independent innovation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expresses its commitment to align with the times, leveraging its technological strength to contribute to China's modernization efforts [1] - The company is determined to embark on a new journey of development under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]
中微公司董事长兼总经理尹志尧:攀登勇者 志在巅峰
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:37
Core Viewpoint - The company aims to achieve a product coverage rate of 50% to 60% in the high-end semiconductor equipment market over the next five to ten years, emphasizing technological self-reliance and innovation [2] Group 1: Strategic Goals - The company identifies the "14th Five-Year Plan" period as crucial for the high-quality development of digital industries, including semiconductors and artificial intelligence [2] - The company plans to deepen industry chain collaboration and promote the construction of innovation alliances to enhance the global competitiveness and systemic resilience of China's semiconductor industry [2] Group 2: Aspirations and Vision - The company aspires to become a leading micro-processing equipment company in the international first tier in terms of scale and competitiveness [2] - The company expresses a commitment to organic growth and external expansion in the coming years [2]
爱尔眼科创始人、董事长陈邦:以初心守光明 以创新赴新程
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:37
爱尔眼科愿与各方同心聚力,"以初心守光明,以创新赴新程",在"十五五"航程中勇攀医学高峰,为健康中国注入 持久动能! 时序更替,华章启新。新的一年,我谨代表爱尔眼科,向长期信赖支持我们的社会各界致以最真挚的祝福! 站在"十五五"规划开局之年的关键节点,爱尔眼科始终将企业发展融入国家战略,积极践行上市公司的责任与担 当。我们坚信,眼健康事业不是临床诊疗的"孤岛",而是串联临床服务、科研创新、产业链协同与公众健康教育 的全生命周期眼健康生态。 新岁启封,征程再拓。2026年,我们将紧扣"十五五"规划建议部署,坚持推进"创新驱动科技爱尔"战略:创新路 上,让AI诊疗、前沿技术跨越山海惠及群众;责任路上,完善覆盖城乡的眼健康服务网络;协同路上,携手伙伴 共享成果,彰显中国眼科的国际竞争力。 ...