时间的河漫过2025年的堤岸，留下错综的印痕。 过去的三百六十多个昼夜足够精彩，世界在宏大叙事中加速旋转——我们见证了AI的浪潮正以前所未 有的力量驱动现实，见证了科技赛道的不断突围，见证了中国资产在变局中涌动出的澎湃动能，也见证 了美元信用版图浮现的裂痕，以及全球资本在失衡与再平衡之间寻找新的坐标系的过程。 然而，当这些史诗级的主题交汇于年末的盘面，有太多人在起伏不定的行情里感受到了失重般的眩晕， 未来仿佛隐于雾中，脉络未清。人们迫切地想要知道，何处将诞生下一只"易中天"般的明星股票，何处 将崛起下一个从寂静中爆发的产业风口，何处将凝聚下一场在市场分歧中悄然形成的共识，以及，何处 才能寻得那一套能够穿透迷雾、真正解释这个时代的投资叙事。 华夏基金多资产全能平台是公司基于资产配置核心理念构建的战略性平台，旨在通过整合全资产类别与 投研资源，为投资者提供一站式、全流程的资产管理解决方案。 多资产全能平台力争打通从资产发现、定义、创设到管理的整体业务链条，覆盖主动权益、固定收益、 指数投资、量化策略、FOF、REITs、跨境投资及另类投资等多个领域，形成超过400只公募产品的多元 化产品体系，能够响应全球配置、行 ...

Group 1 - The recent launch of luxury residential projects in Shenzhen has become a hot topic in the real estate market [1][2] - The first batch of 156 residential units at the Shenzhen Bay project, known as Xinyue Bay, achieved over 10 billion yuan in sales within two hours, with a sales rate of 80% [1] - The average registration price for Xinyue Bay reached 244,000 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for new home registration prices in Shenzhen [1] Group 2 - Other luxury projects in Shenzhen, such as the launch of 348 units at Shenzhen Bay Luanxi, generated sales of 13 billion yuan, marking the highest single-project sales record for 2025 [2] - The overall transaction volume for new and second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen exceeded 6,000 units in December, indicating a positive trend in the market [2] - The luxury market in first-tier cities, including Shanghai, has seen significant activity, with transactions of new residential properties priced over 30 million yuan surpassing 100 billion yuan this year [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a cross-year rally, driven by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and materials [9][10][11] - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [1] - The market consensus is shifting towards sectors representing competition in next-generation infrastructure between China and the US, with a focus on manufacturing and pricing power in the global market [1][2] Group 2 - The strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, with a preference for sectors with low concentration but rising attention and long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The outlook for the RMB is positive, with expectations of appreciation driven by improved domestic conditions and external factors, which could lead to significant capital inflows and asset revaluation [4][5] - The spring market is expected to benefit from favorable conditions, including liquidity support and upcoming policy events, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [3][10][12] Group 3 - The investment focus is on sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as those with high import material dependency and those that can leverage increased domestic purchasing power [5] - The market is characterized by a structural rotation, with a focus on technology themes and sectors like commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and robotics [12][14] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by strong institutional buying and favorable policy expectations [11][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Trump is expected to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair in the first week of January, with potential candidates including Hassett, Walsh, Waller, and Bowman [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - Trump mentioned that Walsh is a top candidate for the Fed Chair position and expressed that both Walsh and Hassett are good options [1] - The current Fed Chair Powell's term will expire in May next year, and the President's nominee must be approved by the Senate [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - Trump hopes to see the federal funds rate lowered to "1% or even lower" within a year to help reduce the high financing costs of U.S. debt [1] - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair should consult him on interest rate policy but does not need to follow his advice completely [1] Group 3: Powell's Position - Powell has faced criticism from Trump for the slow pace of interest rate cuts and has been threatened with dismissal, yet he has maintained the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - The first batch of floating rate funds has shown significant performance differences, with some funds focused on AI achieving over 70% returns, while others targeting consumer and healthcare sectors performed poorly [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of December 27, the top-performing fund, Huashang Zhiyuan, achieved a return of approximately 71.75%, followed by Xinao Advantage Industry at 54.44%, with several other funds exceeding 40% returns [2]. - A total of 26 floating rate funds were launched, with 10 funds outperforming their benchmarks, representing less than 40% of the total [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Fund managers are under pressure to balance between seeking excess returns and adhering closely to benchmark indices, which requires enhanced asset pricing and industry rotation judgment capabilities [6]. - The floating rate mechanism encourages fund managers to focus not only on absolute returns but also on the controllability of excess returns and drawdowns [7]. Group 3: Market Trends - The AI sector remains a core focus for many top-performing funds, with significant investments in leading AI stocks contributing to their success [3]. - The overall market, represented by the CSI 300 index, saw a rise of approximately 18.32% in the second half of the year, positively impacting the net asset values of these funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Financial Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on six key tasks to boost domestic demand and support economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Key Tasks for Fiscal Work in 2026 - The first task is to prioritize domestic demand, significantly boost consumption, and increase investment in key areas such as new productive forces and comprehensive human development [2]. - The second task involves supporting the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, increasing fiscal investment in technology, and enhancing the role of enterprises in technological innovation [2]. - The third task focuses on promoting urban-rural integration and regional collaboration to expand development space, including advancing rural revitalization and new urbanization [2]. - The fourth task is to strengthen basic social protections, enhance employment and income for residents, and improve education and healthcare services [2]. - The fifth task aims to promote a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, emphasizing pollution prevention and ecological protection [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Management and Policy Implementation - The conference calls for comprehensive strengthening of fiscal scientific management and adherence to the principle of frugality in government operations to drive high-quality fiscal development [3]. - It highlights the need for a balance between risk management and the establishment of long-term mechanisms, particularly in government debt management [3]. - The expansion of total expenditure will necessitate higher demands for optimizing expenditure structure and performance management, with a shift towards investing in human capital and essential services [3].

Group 1: AI and Technology Developments - The launch of DeepSeek-R1 in January 2025 has become a core investment theme, driving significant capital market momentum and shifting the focus from performance competition to cost, efficiency, and commercialization capabilities in the AI sector [2] - The AI industry has seen a concentration of funds towards leading companies, with notable stock performances such as the "Yi Zhong Tian" combination, which saw gains exceeding 450% [2] - The human-robotics sector has entered a commercialized phase, with over 46 billion yuan in total orders and more than 20,000 units sold, indicating a shift from conceptual collaborations to practical applications [4][5] Group 2: Film and Entertainment Industry - The film "Nezha 2" achieved a record-breaking box office of 15.4 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone for the Chinese animation industry and contributing to a total annual box office of over 50 billion yuan, a 75 billion yuan increase from 2024 [3] - The success of "Nezha 2" and other animated films reflects the growing market potential for domestic animation, providing a reference for future creative and investment strategies in the film industry [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The intense competition in the food delivery industry, initiated by JD's entry with a no-commission model, has led to significant market disruptions and a series of subsidy wars among major platforms, resulting in a 141 billion yuan loss for Meituan's core local business despite record user numbers [7] - Regulatory bodies have intervened to address the chaotic competition, leading to commitments from major platforms to improve service quality and return to rational development [7] Group 4: Capital Market Trends - The A-share market has seen a record high in cash dividends, totaling 2.61 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase in companies' willingness to return profits to shareholders and enhancing market resilience [11] - The emergence of "GPU dual heroes" in the capital market, with multiple domestic GPU companies going public, signifies a milestone for the domestic AI chip industry and a shift towards self-sufficiency [10] Group 5: Industry Regulation and Quality Improvement - The lithium battery supply chain has experienced a price recovery due to regulatory efforts to combat "involution" competition, with lithium carbonate futures seeing significant price increases [12] - The charging battery industry is transitioning to a more orderly development phase following regulatory changes and recalls by major brands, addressing issues of safety and compliance [13]

Core Insights - In the context of the investment wave towards Hong Kong stocks in 2025, a group of fund managers focusing on core technology assets in the A-share market has achieved impressive performance, with returns ranging from 125% to 236% for the top 20 funds [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The top-performing A-share funds have maintained low exposure to Hong Kong stocks, with many keeping their allocation below 10% or at zero, allowing for a high concentration in A-share core assets [1][2]. - For instance, the Guangfa Growth Navigator fund reduced its Hong Kong stock allocation from approximately 28% in June to about 4% by the end of the third quarter, effectively avoiding volatility in the Hong Kong market [2]. - Other funds, such as the Yongying Technology Smart Selection fund, also maintained low Hong Kong stock allocations, focusing primarily on the A-share market [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Logic - A-share market pricing reacts more directly to local hot sectors, making it easier to capture market opportunities by maintaining a high allocation to core A-share assets [3]. - The difference in market characteristics between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks necessitates a tailored investment strategy, as A-share funds often struggle when applying their strategies to the Hong Kong market without proper adjustments [4]. - Funds that heavily invested in Hong Kong stocks without adapting their strategies have generally underperformed, highlighting the importance of understanding market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - A-share fund managers tend to focus on growth potential and sector performance, while professional Hong Kong funds prioritize financial quality, cash flow, and dividend potential [5][6]. - For example, the Hong Kong stock Jiangnan Buyi, valued at approximately HKD 10 billion, has been recognized for its strong cash flow and dividend history, which A-share funds have overlooked [6]. - The contrasting investment philosophies between A-share and Hong Kong funds illustrate the need for A-share managers to adapt their approaches when considering investments in the Hong Kong market [5][6]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - A-share fund managers need to approach Hong Kong investments with caution, recognizing the significant influence of global liquidity and market sentiment on pricing [7][8]. - Understanding the unique pricing mechanisms and investor structures in the Hong Kong market is crucial for A-share fund managers venturing into this space [7][8]. - The potential for long-term returns exists in the Hong Kong market, particularly through identifying high-dividend yielding assets, which can provide an alternative strategy for A-share fund managers [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has sparked market interest, but there is a divergence regarding whether this trend will continue, with expectations of two-way fluctuations becoming the norm [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since mid-October, the RMB has appreciated by nearly 1.7% against the USD, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for currency settlement [1]. - The exchange rate is currently at a critical point around 7.0, which is seen as a battleground for bullish and bearish sentiments [1]. - Despite the typical year-end surge in currency settlement, recent data shows that the foreign exchange market remains balanced, with stable bank settlement and sales volumes in November [1]. Group 2: Market Influences and Expectations - The RMB's performance is not only dependent on domestic supply and demand but also on the trends of the USD index [2]. - The upcoming pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may alleviate downward pressure on the USD, despite the recent appreciation of the RMB [2]. - The CFETS RMB index has remained stable over the past two months, indicating that while the USD weakens, the RMB is maintaining a reasonable equilibrium against a basket of currencies [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Regulatory Considerations - The central bank is vigilant about preventing one-sided expectations in the exchange rate market and may intervene if the RMB appreciates too quickly [2]. - Market participants, including enterprises and financial institutions, should adopt a risk-neutral approach and utilize foreign exchange derivatives for effective risk management [2].

Core Viewpoint - The National Financial Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on six key tasks to enhance domestic demand and support economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Key Tasks for Fiscal Work in 2026 - The first task is to prioritize domestic demand, support the construction of a strong domestic market, and implement actions to boost consumption [2]. - The second task involves supporting the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, increasing fiscal investment in technology, and enhancing the role of enterprises in innovation [2]. - The third task focuses on promoting urban-rural integration and regional collaboration to expand development space [2]. - The fourth task is to strengthen basic social protections, enhance employment, education, healthcare, and social security systems to meet public needs [2]. - The fifth task aims to promote a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, focusing on pollution prevention and ecological protection [3]. - The sixth task is to enhance international financial cooperation and support high-level opening-up, including reforms in global economic governance [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Management and Strategy - The conference calls for comprehensive strengthening of fiscal management and adherence to frugality in government spending to promote high-quality fiscal development [3]. - It emphasizes the need to balance risk management with the establishment of long-term mechanisms, particularly in government debt management [3]. - The expansion of total expenditure will require optimization of expenditure structure and performance management, shifting focus from "investment in things" to "investment in people" [3].