市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 国投瑞银白银期货证券投资基金（LOF）颇受短线投资者青睐的C类基金份额将从下周一开始暂停申 购。国投瑞银基金管理公司在周五的一份公告中宣布了这一不同寻常的举措。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

上游矿业板块显著受益，Hochschild Mining与Coeur Mining等主要矿企年内股价均已翻番。与此同时，散户投资者正在加速进场。其参与形式涵盖 实物白银收藏、白银ETF及衍生品交易等多个维度，参与群体既包括传统贵金属配置者，也涌现出大量受情绪驱动的短线交易者。 今年以来，白银价格已飙升145%，突破每盎司75美元，在10月刷新45年历史高位后依然涨势迅猛，其表现远超同期上涨约70%的黄金，而散户的 狂热正在把白银行情推向极端。 当前白银价格的上涨，源于供应趋紧与工业需求增长的共同作用。全球可供独立开采的白银矿源日益稀缺，而太阳能等绿色产业对白银的消耗量 持续攀升，导致市场库存不断承压。与此同时，散户投资者集中增持白银资产的行为，进一步扩大了供需缺口。 然而，市场的极度亢奋已拉响过热警报。彭博数据显示，全球最大白银ETF iShares Silver Trust 的期权交易量近期快速攀升，已接近2021年Reddit 论坛引发散户交易狂潮时的高位水平。市场研究机构Spectra Markets总裁Brent Donnelly指出，白银价格常呈现急涨急跌的特征，快速拉升后往往 伴随大幅回调。当前由 ...

减肥药的普及正从富豪阶层渗透至伦敦金融城的普通职员群体，这一趋势不仅改变了职场人士的个人形 象，更在悄然重塑从高端定制服装到私人医疗服务的商业生态。 据英国《金融时报》26日报道，自2025年初以来，相关药物的处方量显著上升。数据公司IQVIA估计， 今年9月英国约有240万人正在使用Wegovy和Mounjaro等药物。尽管NHS开具此类处方的门槛依然很 高，但绝大多数用户选择自费购买，这直接推动了私人诊所和在线销售渠道的快速扩张。 这一现象已促使部分企业调整员工福利政策，开始提供减肥药物作为福利计划的一部分，Vitality等保险 公司也已将此类药物纳入私人医疗保险覆盖范围。这种需求的激增正在对相关服务行业产生连锁反应， 不仅服装修改业务迎来爆发，同时也引发了监管机构对假冒药物和潜在健康风险的密切关注。 无论是由于药物带来的"全身重塑"导致对新衣橱的需求，还是对健身和社交习惯的改变，减肥针正在成 为伦敦金融城职场生活中不可忽视的新变量。 服装修改与形象重塑需求激增 市场需求的激增还引发了对假冒药品的担忧。今年8月，伦敦市警方披露了一起在线销售假冒减肥药的 查获案件。NHS英格兰医疗总监早前也警告称，此类药 ...

乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，将于周日在佛罗里达州与美国总统特朗普会面，和平框架协议"几乎已经准备就绪"。 美乌框架协议接近完成 据媒体报道，泽连斯基表示签署该协议将取决于他与特朗普的会晤。他透露，将与特朗普讨论包括乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区未来以及扎波罗热核电 站在内的敏感问题。 据新华社，泽连斯基25日晚表示，他当天与美国总统特朗普的特使威特科夫、女婿库什纳通电话，就接下来的会晤形式、加快实现"真正和平"的 时间安排等议题进行讨论。俄方当天表示，正在分析最新版"和平计划"草案。 泽连斯基称，乌克兰目前与俄罗斯没有直接沟通渠道。他希望欧洲领导人能够在线参与他与美国的会谈。他强调，最新版俄乌"和平计划"草案无 法在没有俄罗斯和欧洲参与的情况下签署，因为俄罗斯和欧洲与乌克兰和美国一样，也是可能达成协议草案的参与方。 白宫尚未就与泽连斯基的潜在会谈发表评论。此前，克里姆林宫曾表示，其代表已在普京的指示下与美国进行了接触。油价对此反应平淡，WTI 原油小幅走低0.03%至58.33美元/桶。 据塔斯社报道，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫25日表示，俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫向总统普京提交的最新版俄乌"和平计划"草案正在分析 中。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver is becoming one of the most sought-after trading assets for 2025, driven by structural supply shortages and strong industrial demand, with futures prices soaring 154% this year and approximately 40% this month alone [1] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The core logic behind the surge in silver prices is the market's re-evaluation of long-term structural deficits, with a cumulative deficit of approximately 800 million ounces over the past five years, nearly equivalent to a full year's mine supply [4] - The Silver Institute predicts that this deficit will persist for the next five years, with significant reductions in inventory at major exchanges like London, New York, and Shanghai contributing to a fundamental market shift [4] - Industrial demand is primarily driven by solar panel manufacturers, with advancements in technology expected to further increase silver consumption. Additionally, investment demand for silver ETFs is projected to reach nearly 200 million ounces this year, significantly exceeding previous forecasts of 70 million ounces [4] "Frenzy Phase" and $300 Price Target Logic - The $300 price target is based on a significant correction in the gold-silver ratio, which peaked at 104 in April and has since fallen to around 68. Predictions suggest this ratio could drop to 15 during the upcoming "frenzy phase" [5] - Using a current gold price of approximately $4,500, dividing by a ratio of 15 yields a silver target price of $300. While some forecasts are more aggressive (ranging from $800 to $1,000), the analysis presents a more conservative and realistic path [5] Short-term Outlook - The market position for silver is strong, having confirmed a support level at $50 in October. However, short-term corrections are expected, and while minor adjustments may occur, the key factors supporting the bullish trend are likely to remain in place for an extended period [6]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is expected to achieve its first basic fiscal surplus since 1998 in the fiscal year 2026, as the government approved a record budget of 122.3 trillion yen, balancing strong economic growth with fiscal discipline [1] Group 1: Fiscal Surplus and Budget - The initial budget for the national government is projected to achieve a basic fiscal surplus of 1.34 trillion yen [1] - Achieving a fiscal surplus has been a goal for the Japanese government for over two decades, with the initial target set for the fiscal year 2011 [4] - The upcoming release of complete data, including local government figures, is expected to confirm this milestone [4] Group 2: Debt Management and Market Response - The issuance of super-long-term bonds will be reduced to 17.4 trillion yen, a decrease of nearly one-fifth from the previous year, marking the lowest level in 17 years [5] - The total issuance of government bonds for the new fiscal year is set at 180.7 trillion yen, a nearly 5% decrease from the current fiscal year [5] - The debt dependency ratio has dropped to 24.2%, the lowest level since 1998, as new bond issuance is controlled below 30 trillion yen for the first time [6] Group 3: Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - Tax revenue is expected to grow by 7.6% to a record 83.7 trillion yen, providing a crucial funding source for new expenditures [7] - Debt repayment costs are projected to rise by 10.8% to 31.3 trillion yen, reflecting the pressures of exiting ultra-loose monetary policy [7] - The government is increasingly focusing on reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio rather than solely on achieving a basic fiscal surplus [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the Japanese yen is increasingly bearish, with major institutions predicting a significant depreciation against the US dollar by the end of 2026, driven by high interest rate differentials and negative real interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Major institutions like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas forecast that the yen will fall below 160 against the dollar by the end of 2026, with some predictions as low as 164 [1][3]. - The yen has only seen a marginal increase of less than 1% against the dollar this year, failing to recover from a four-year decline, and currently hovers around 156, close to its early year low of 158.87 [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The fundamental weakness of the yen is a primary concern, with predictions that this situation will not improve significantly in the near future [3][5]. - The cyclical forces are expected to turn increasingly unfavorable for the yen, as the market prices in higher interest rates in other regions, limiting the impact of the Bank of Japan's tightening policies [3][5]. Group 3: Capital Outflow - Domestic capital outflow is a significant factor pressuring the yen, with retail investors maintaining high levels of overseas stock investments, around 9.4 trillion yen (600 billion) [4]. - Japanese companies are also increasingly investing abroad, with direct investment levels remaining stable and M&A activity reaching new highs, further exacerbating the yen's depreciation [4]. Group 4: Intervention Risks - The risk of official intervention has resurfaced as the yen approaches levels that previously triggered government action, but market experts believe that mere intervention may not reverse the structural depreciation trend [6]. - Despite warnings from officials about excessive speculation, the market remains volatile, and simple smoothing operations may not be effective in changing the yen's downward trajectory [6].

下一步，金融系统将按照中央经济工作会议、中央金融工作会议部署，统筹国内国际两个大局，完整准 确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，防范化解重点领域风险，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基础。保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。推动社会综 合融资成本下降。坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调 风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，大力发展科技金 融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融，加力支持国家重大战略、经济社会发展的重点领域和 薄弱环节。健全覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，加强系统性金融风险的监测、评估，强化重点领域的宏 观审慎管理。防范化解重点领域金融风险，坚定推进金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工作，积极稳妥处 置中小金融机构风险，做好房地产金融宏观审慎管理，牢牢守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the share reduction plan by Chip Origin Technology (688521) indicates a strategic move by a major shareholder, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, to manage its operational needs while maintaining its stake in the company [1] Group 1: Shareholder Reduction Details - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund holds 34,724,272 shares of Chip Origin, representing 6.6034% of the total share capital [1] - Since the company's listing in August 2020, the fund has not executed any share reductions [1] - The planned reduction involves a maximum of 8,939,590 shares, which accounts for no more than 1.70% of the total shares [1] Group 2: Reduction Method and Timeline - The reduction will be executed through two methods: a centralized bidding process for up to 2,629,291 shares and block trading for up to 6,310,299 shares [1] - The reduction period is set from January 21, 2026, to April 20, 2026, lasting three months [1] Group 3: Background Information - The reason for the share reduction is stated as operational management needs [1] - In December 2025, the third phase of the fund, Huaxin Dingxin, plans to invest 300 million yuan in acquiring the Zhudian Semiconductor project [1] - The share reduction is not expected to lead to any change in the company's control or governance structure [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land's recent luxury property launch in Shenzhen, the Shenzhen Bay Luanxi, achieved sales of 13 billion yuan in a single day, indicating a resurgence in the luxury market, but the company is struggling overall in Shenzhen, dropping significantly in sales rankings [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first 11 months of the year, China Resources Land recorded sales of 8.032 billion yuan, ranking seventh among real estate companies in Shenzhen, far behind the top performers like Hongrongyuan (18.255 billion yuan) and China Merchants Shekou (14.396 billion yuan) [1]. - The Shenzhen Bay Luanxi project, developed in partnership with China Overseas Land, is expected to contribute over 7 billion yuan in sales, but this is insufficient to restore the company's previous market dominance [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The luxury market in Shenzhen is becoming increasingly competitive, with new projects like CITIC Xinyue Bay and Lian Tai Chaozong Bay entering the market, which may challenge the sales of existing projects [4]. - China Resources Land's reliance on a few "super projects" has increased, as seen with the Shenzhen Bay Luanxi, which lacks the sustained demand seen in previous flagship projects like Huazhong City [3]. Group 3: Land Acquisition and Development - The company has been less active in acquiring new land, securing only one plot in partnership with China Merchants Shekou this year, which is expected to be developed into high-end residential units [4]. - The Lake Bei redevelopment project, which has been in the pipeline since 2011, is a significant asset for China Resources Land, but recent adjustments to its planning indicate a shift towards residential development to ensure quicker returns [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Pressure - China Resources Land is facing significant financial pressure, with a total debt expected to reach 281.27 billion yuan by mid-2025, and a net interest-bearing debt ratio increasing by 7.3 percentage points within six months [8]. - The company has recently issued 3.9 billion USD in bonds and raised 2 billion HKD through a share placement, marking a significant increase in public financing this year [8]. Group 5: Strategic Challenges - The company must navigate the balance between releasing profits from core assets and managing the financial burden of large-scale redevelopment projects, which poses a long-term challenge for its operations in Shenzhen [9].