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降息并非共识!美联储内部已出现严重分歧
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-31 02:11
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has agreed to lower interest rates in December, but there are significant internal divisions among officials regarding this decision [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - During the December 9-10 monetary policy meeting, six officials explicitly opposed the rate cut, including two voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee [1][5]. - The meeting minutes indicate that "most participants" ultimately supported the rate cut, with some viewing it as a necessary forward-looking strategy to stabilize the labor market amid signs of slowing employment growth [1][5]. - Some officials expressed concerns about the Fed's ability to achieve the 2% inflation control target [1][5]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - Predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement one more rate cut next year and is likely to maintain rates for a period until new data shows inflation decreasing or unemployment rising beyond expectations [1][5]. - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, with investors currently expecting the Fed to keep the benchmark rate unchanged [3][7]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - The recent government shutdown has significantly affected the statistical data regarding the U.S. economy for October and November, complicating the Fed's ability to make further judgments [1][5].
对华业务,美国松绑
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-31 01:49
【文/观察者网 齐倩】 12月30日,两名消息人士向路透社透露,美国特朗普政府已向三星电子、SK海力士授予"年度许可 证",允许两家公司在2026年向其在华工厂出口芯片制造设备。 今年早些时候,特朗普政府撤销了三星电子、SK海力士和台积电在拜登政府时期获得的无限期许可 证。 一名消息人士表示,美国引入了年度审批制度。这为两家韩国公司提供了临时缓解。 不过,路透社未提及台积电是否也获得类似"年度许可证"。 三星和SK海力士拒绝置评,而台积电未立即回应评论请求。美国商务部正在休假。 同时,美方提议的年度审核机制,存在制度性问题。有美国官员在一份联邦通知中表示,撤销三星和 SK海力士的豁免,将要求他们每年额外处理1000份许可证。此外,韩企表示,他们很难准确预测,他 们可能需要哪些零件来修复12个月内随时可能损坏的生产设备。 8月30日,商务部发言人曾就此指出,半导体是高度全球化的产业,经过数十年发展,已形成你中有 我、我中有你的产业格局,这是市场规律和企业选择共同作用的结果。美方此举系出于一己之私,将出 口管制工具化,将对全球半导体产业链供应链稳定产生重要不利影响,中方对此表示反对。 彭博社此前表示,美国政府此举 ...
晨枫:年末的正义,想来就来!
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-31 01:20
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the large-scale military exercise "Justice Mission-2025" conducted by the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), emphasizing its significance as a warning against "Taiwan independence" and external interference, while showcasing the PLA's readiness for potential military action in the Taiwan Strait. Group 1: Exercise Characteristics - "Justice Mission-2025" exhibits three main characteristics: full-time readiness, full-time capability to engage, and immediate initiation of combat operations [3] - The exercise demonstrates a heightened level of cold-start offensive capability, allowing for rapid and surprise full-scale attacks without prior warning [4] Group 2: Military Actions and Responses - The PLA's recent military actions in the Taiwan Strait have been characterized by a decrease in intensity since July, but the sudden launch of "Justice Mission-2025" indicates a readiness to act at any moment [6] - The exercise includes live-fire drills in the waters surrounding Taiwan, enhancing the PLA's ability to transition from training to combat [7] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The exercise highlights the importance of the "blockade" option in military strategy, as the balance of power increasingly favors the mainland [11] - Taiwan's limited strategic resources and reliance on imports for energy make it vulnerable to sustained military action, particularly if supply lines are disrupted [12] Group 4: External Factors and International Relations - The exercise serves as a direct response to recent provocations from external actors, including the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, which are viewed as serious challenges to China's sovereignty [6][22] - The PLA's actions are framed as a demonstration of strength and a message to both Taiwan and external powers, indicating that the PLA is prepared to take decisive action if necessary [22]
山西襄汾一包村干部酒后上门打人,官方通报
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-31 00:17
山西襄汾县委宣传部12月30日通过微信公众号"掌上微襄汾"发布情况通报称: 12月30日,一男子通过网络反映"山西襄汾一包村干部酒后上门与其父发生争执,致使其父受伤住院"。 经查,情况基本属实。目前,县公安机关已将该包村干部曹某辉行政拘留15日、并处1000元罚款。其它 违纪问题,县纪委监委将进一步核查,依法依规处理到位。 中共襄汾县委宣传部 2025年12月30日 温先生讲述,他的父亲2025年4月至12月负责清运村内三个垃圾池内的垃圾。该项工作由新城镇包村干 部曹某某安排,双方原本口头约定劳务费用总共为9000元。12月27日,曹某某向自己父亲打来电话称只 能支付5000元费用, 他的父亲不同意,曹某某便开始进行辱骂。 另据纵览新闻此前报道,12月29日,山西临汾市襄汾县新城镇上庄村的温先生向记者反映,其父亲在家 中遭到镇干部曹某某酒后殴打,导致受伤住院。 温先生提供的一段监控视频显示,12月27日20时40分左右,在一处院子里,三名男子将一名身材较矮有 些上了年纪的男子围在中间,几人正在互相拉扯。突然,一名穿黑色上衣的男子伸手打了上年纪男子一 记耳光。双方继续拉扯,离开了监控画面范围,视频中也传出较大响 ...
元旦起降税,个人购房未满2年出售的增值税减少2%
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-30 14:37
Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will reduce the value-added tax (VAT) on the sale of residential properties held for less than two years from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026, while maintaining the exemption for properties held for two years or more [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - From January 1, 2026, individuals selling residential properties held for less than two years will pay a VAT of 3%, down from the previous 5% [1]. - The exemption for properties held for two years or more remains unchanged, continuing to allow for no VAT payment [1]. - For a property sold at a total price of 3 million, the VAT payable will decrease from approximately 150,000 to 90,000, resulting in a tax saving of around 60,000 [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The reduction in VAT is expected to lower transaction costs and reduce friction in the housing market, potentially releasing pent-up demand affected by high transaction costs [2]. - The policy aims to alleviate difficulties in selling properties, particularly reducing instances where sellers must significantly lower prices to complete sales [2]. - The current market context shows a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices, with a need for policy intervention to stabilize the market [2][3]. Group 3: Broader Policy Context - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need to remove unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption and lower transaction costs [3]. - The housing market is experiencing a blockage in the "sell old to buy new" cycle, with a clear distinction emerging between new and second-hand housing markets [3]. - The government is actively implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including optimizing housing supply and supporting reasonable financing needs for real estate companies [4]. Group 4: Local Policy Adjustments - Recent local policies in Beijing have adjusted social security or tax payment requirements for non-local families, reducing the duration from three years to two years for purchases within the Fifth Ring Road [5]. - The minimum down payment for second homes using public housing funds has been lowered from 30% to 25% [5].
“现实性越来越强,行动愈发凌厉”,外媒关注解放军绕台军演
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-30 14:32
Core Viewpoint - The military exercise "Justice Mission-2025" conducted by the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) serves as a serious warning against "Taiwan independence" forces and external interference, emphasizing the necessity of defending national sovereignty and unity [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Military Exercise Details - The exercise involved a variety of military assets, including new amphibious assault ships, large-scale aerial formations, multiple missile launch vehicles, and long-range rocket artillery, showcasing the PLA's joint operational capabilities [1][4]. - This exercise is noted as the closest to Taiwan to date, demonstrating the PLA's ability to conduct long-range strikes and block key maritime and aerial areas around Taiwan [1][4]. International Reactions - The exercise gained significant attention from foreign media, particularly following the U.S. announcement of a $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, marking the largest military sale in history to the region [7]. - Analysts suggest that the military drill serves as a warning to both the U.S. and Japan, particularly in light of recent comments from Japanese officials regarding potential military intervention in the Taiwan Strait [7][8]. Military Capabilities - The 191 long-range box rocket artillery system has been highlighted for its advantages, including long range, rapid reloading, and high automation, which enhance its precision strike capabilities [2][4]. - The PLA's ability to quickly transition from a normal deployment state to an exercise or combat state has been emphasized, indicating a high level of readiness [5]. Implications for Taiwan - The military exercise is perceived as a "cold start" rehearsal for potential military unification, showcasing the PLA's readiness to engage in combat operations [5][8]. - Following the announcement of the exercise, Taiwan experienced significant disruptions in transportation, indicating the exercise's impact on the region [5][8].
受贿1.07亿,山东高速原董事长周勇被判无期
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-30 13:12
Group 1 - The Shandong Provincial Intermediate People's Court sentenced Zhou Yong, former vice chairman of the Shandong Provincial Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, to life imprisonment for bribery, confiscating all personal property and seizing illicit gains [1] - Zhou Yong was found guilty of accepting bribes totaling over 107 million yuan (approximately 15.1 million USD), with more than 53 million yuan (approximately 7.5 million USD) not actually received [1] - The court acknowledged Zhou's cooperation during the investigation, including confessing to most of the bribery facts and returning all illicit gains, which contributed to a lighter sentence [1] Group 2 - Zhou Yong, born in 1962, held various positions in the Shandong transportation sector, including roles as general manager and chairman of Shandong Highway Group [2] - He served as deputy mayor of Laiwu City in 2013 and later held significant leadership roles in transportation companies until his appointment as a member of the Shandong Provincial Committee in 2023 [2] - Zhou was investigated in March 2024 for multiple violations, including accepting gifts and using properties and vehicles from management and service objects [3][4]
李书福:坚定“关键时刻”抉择,吉利将走向“平台+生态”竞争
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-30 12:40
Core Insights - Geely's Chairman Li Shufu emphasized the company's evolution over 40 years, highlighting key transformative decisions that have shaped its growth trajectory, including moving away from low-cost competition and embracing new energy and intelligence [3][4] - The automotive industry is entering a new "critical moment," characterized by deep-water competition in electrification and a shift from functional additions to systematic confrontations in intelligence [4] - Geely has made significant progress in its electric and intelligent transformation, achieving breakthroughs in battery technology and launching high-end intelligent new energy models [4] Electrification and Intelligent Transformation - Geely has developed breakthroughs in three core technologies: batteries, hybrid systems, and high-voltage architecture, accelerating the rollout of high-end intelligent new energy vehicles under brands like Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr [4] - The company has established a comprehensive "full-domain AI" technology system that covers computing power, algorithms, and applications, with a focus on enhancing safety in intelligent vehicles [4] Strategic Initiatives - The "integration of heaven and earth" strategy is progressing, with the completion of the first phase of the Geely Constellation network and advancements in eVTOL projects and Robotaxi commercialization [4] - Geely is exploring new global expansion paths through technology licensing, joint research, and local operations, with a focus on high-value intelligent new energy products [5] Long-term Goals and Sustainability - Geely aims for "carbon neutrality across the entire chain by 2045," viewing diverse energy forms as essential for future transportation systems [5] - The company plans to enhance its competitive edge through a "platform + ecosystem" approach, increasing investments in new energy technology, intelligent networking, automotive safety, and full-domain AI [5] Talent Development - Geely will launch a youth innovation and entrepreneurship incentive program with an initial investment of 50 million yuan in 2026, aiming to foster talent for the AI era through open and multi-level mechanisms [5]
1499元飞天茅台登陆i茅台,元旦起开放申购
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-30 12:07
Core Viewpoint - Starting January 2026, Kweichow Moutai will offer its flagship product, "500ml 53-degree Flying Moutai," at an official price of 1499 yuan per bottle on its self-operated platform "i Moutai," marking a significant step towards price control, market stabilization, and direct sales expansion [1][8][9]. Group 1: Pricing and Market Strategy - The introduction of the 1499 yuan price point allows consumers to purchase Flying Moutai directly from official channels, which is expected to increase the opening rate and suppress speculation, thereby promoting genuine consumption [8][15]. - This pricing strategy serves as a "price anchor" for the market, providing stability and confidence to consumers while potentially impacting the pricing structure of other premium liquor brands [15][16]. - The decision aligns with the company's goal to balance channel interests and market control, as stated by the chairman, who emphasized that while dealers should profit, excessive profits are no longer feasible [8][9]. Group 2: Direct Sales and Consumer Engagement - The launch of direct sales through the "i Moutai" platform is seen as the completion of the company's direct sales system, enhancing consumer trust in purchasing Moutai products [9][10]. - The daily limited supply of Flying Moutai at 1499 yuan is expected to boost user engagement on the "i Moutai" platform, attracting more consumers and expanding the customer base [10][11]. - As of the end of 2024, the "i Moutai" platform had over 50 million registered users, with significant sales figures reported, indicating a strong digital marketing presence [19][20]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Context - The market price of Flying Moutai has fluctuated, dropping from around 2300 yuan per bottle earlier in the year to below 1499 yuan, before recovering to approximately 1600 yuan, reflecting a weak market [13][14]. - The company's financial performance has shown signs of pressure, with a net profit growth of only 0.48% in the third quarter of 2025, marking the lowest growth rate in a decade [21]. - The introduction of the 1499 yuan price point is anticipated to enhance direct sales, which is crucial for the company amid slowing growth rates [18][21].
必胜客在2025 | 从“庆祝餐厅“到“每日之选”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-30 12:07
Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic evolution and expansion of Pizza Hut in China, emphasizing its adaptation to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics. Group 1: Brand Evolution and Market Positioning - Pizza Hut has transformed from a high-end dining experience to a daily dining choice, aiming to provide high-quality Western cuisine at competitive prices [9][11] - The brand's expansion strategy is characterized by rapid growth, with plans to increase the number of stores from 3,000 to 4,000 in just over two years, targeting 6,000 by 2028 [6][15] - The collaboration with popular IPs and themed promotions has helped Pizza Hut maintain a strong connection with consumers, reinforcing its brand identity over 35 years [4][5] Group 2: Operational Strategies and Innovations - The introduction of the "WOW store" model targets lower-tier markets and single diners, focusing on daily low prices and menu innovation [8] - A robust franchise system is being utilized to penetrate areas that are difficult for the company to reach directly, leveraging local partners for operational efficiency [8] - Pizza Hut's supply chain, supported by Yum China, includes 33 logistics centers, enabling efficient distribution and quality control across over 5,000 towns [8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Response - In the first three quarters of 2025, same-store traffic increased by 17% year-on-year, demonstrating the effectiveness of operational improvements and strategic pricing adjustments [11] - Despite price reductions, the restaurant's profit margins have increased, indicating a successful balance between cost management and value delivery [11] Group 4: Digital Transformation and Customer Engagement - The rise of delivery services has become a significant part of Pizza Hut's business model, with over half of sales coming from delivery and takeout [13] - The company is focusing on transforming its membership program to enhance customer loyalty beyond discounts, creating a sense of belonging among its 200 million members [13] - AI technology is being integrated into operations, such as the AI smart manager "Q Rui," to optimize scheduling and inventory management, improving overall service quality [14] Group 5: Future Aspirations and Community Engagement - Pizza Hut aims to double its profits by 2029, reflecting a strong growth ambition in the competitive Chinese dining market [16][17] - The company is also launching community initiatives, such as the "Little Red Hat Project," to engage youth in volunteerism and social responsibility [17]