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震荡期红利资产或受青睐 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - The construction materials sector experienced a decline of 1.41% during the week of December 6-12, 2025, underperforming against the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which saw changes of -0.08% and +0.26% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -1.33% and -1.67% [1] Group 1: Cement Market - The national average price for high-standard cement was 354.8 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 yuan/ton from the previous week but a significant decrease of 69.2 yuan/ton compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises was 64.8%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average cement shipment rate was 43.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous week and down 0.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] Group 2: Glass Market - The average price for float white glass was 1165.1 yuan/ton, up 1.2 yuan/ton from the previous week but down 247.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The inventory of float glass among sample enterprises was 5.542 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 133,000 heavy boxes from the previous week but an increase of 1.254 million heavy boxes compared to 2024 [2] - The domestic market for non-alkali roving yarn remained stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 2400tex non-alkali yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The cement industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in profitability due to proactive supply-side adjustments, with a projected increase in clinker capacity utilization [6] - The glass industry is facing a supply contraction, which may provide price elasticity in 2026, although current conditions are characterized by widespread losses among producers [7] - The fiberglass sector anticipates stable growth in demand driven by wind power and new applications, with a projected increase in effective capacity for 2026 [4][5]
看好人形机器人、AI基建及流程工业 | 投研报告
Group 1: Industry Overview - In November, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (up 9.1%) and exports at 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [1][2] - The construction machinery sector is experiencing a broad recovery, with loader sales in November reaching 11,419 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, including domestic sales of 5,631 units (up 29.39%) and exports of 5,748 units (up 34.8%) [1][2] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure continues to grow, supported by the U.S. government's approval for NVIDIA to export AI chips to China and other clients, which is expected to alleviate domestic computing power bottlenecks [2] Group 2: Company Highlights - **Riyuan Technology**: A leading supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment, the company saw new orders nearly double year-on-year in the first half, with a 44.01% increase in revenue and an 18.83% increase in net profit for the first three quarters. The company is expected to convert orders into revenue effectively, with profit elasticity anticipated to improve as cost impacts diminish [2] - **Kangst**: Engaged in the development and sales of digital testing instruments, the company experienced a positive turning point in Q3, with revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 22.24%, 30.66%, and 36.2% respectively. The company demonstrates strong operational resilience under tariff pressures and is expected to have significant growth potential with the gradual introduction of MEMS sensors into production [3] - **Xinxin Co., Ltd.**: The company, which produces hard alloys and tools, reported a Q3 revenue increase of 38.02%, net profit growth of 75.40%, and a 94.83% increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items. The strong profit performance is attributed to the company's ability to pass on rising raw material costs to downstream customers, indicating a stable business growth and improving profitability [4]
风偏调整引发回调,建议逢低增配有色板块 | 投研报告
Investment Highlights - Precious metals are recommended to hold firmly, with COMEX gold rising by 2.42% and COMEX silver by 5.59%. The volatility of silver is high, and the rebound in London inventory may temporarily pause the short-term squeeze logic. The long-term trend of de-dollarization will not reverse, and with the inflow of ETF funds under short-term rate cut trades, the precious metals sector is expected to perform well [1] - Copper prices experienced fluctuations due to market risk appetite adjustments, with LME copper down by 0.96%. This decline is primarily driven by a decrease in risk assets linked to the U.S. market. However, the inventory relocation logic remains, and due to the downward adjustment of production expectations from Freeport and Teck Resources for 2026, a supply-demand tightness is anticipated. The expectation of increased fiscal spending by the U.S. government further reinforces this outlook, suggesting that adjustments present buying opportunities [1] - Aluminum prices fell by 0.88%, following copper price trends. Despite being in a traditional consumption off-season in December, demand from the automotive, power, and electronics sectors remains resilient. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum was reported at 584,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons, indicating a relatively low level that supports aluminum prices. Overall, the decline in aluminum prices is linked to copper, and buying opportunities are suggested amid supply disruptions and surging energy storage demand in 2026 [2] - Tin prices surged past 330,000 yuan/ton, driven by strong market sentiment and continuous capital inflow. The rise in tin prices is attributed to ongoing supply issues, with expectations of supply chain disruptions due to large-scale evacuations in the Bisie mine area. Additionally, supply risks in Nigeria and slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines contribute to the challenges. The macroeconomic benefits from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts amplify the upward potential for tin prices, with expectations that the price center will remain above 300,000 yuan in 2026 [2] - Tungsten prices continue to rise, with black tungsten concentrate reaching 370,000 yuan/ton. The decline in mine output and increased maintenance by APT companies have tightened upstream raw material supplies. In Europe, severe raw material shortages and pre-Christmas production halts have led to stagnant market trading. Traders expect European APT prices to exceed 1,000 USD/ton, with end-users accepting this price level. The short-term supply-demand imbalance in tungsten is expected to persist, with attention on next year's quota issuance and overseas mine production [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [4]
乡村振兴|洛南公司:迎战寒潮保供电 护航冬季农业生产
近期,受持续低温寒潮天气影响,城乡居民取暖及农业生产用电负荷显著攀升。为确保辖区电力安全稳 定供应,特别是保障养殖、加工等农业产业冬季生产用电需求,国网洛南县供电公司积极部署,组织基 层供电所开展专项服务行动。12月14日,八里供电所党员服务队深入八里社区养殖集中区,主动上门为 养殖户开展用电隐患排查与安全指导,全力筑牢寒潮期间农业生产"电力防线"。 服务过程中,工作人员针对冬季用电特点,逐户走访摸排用电负荷变化,重点对养殖棚舍取暖设备、照 明线路、饲料加工机械以及配电保护装置等进行全面检查。累计发现并协助消除线路老化、接头松动、 开关容量不匹配等安全隐患12处。结合现场情况,工作人员向养殖户细致讲解冬季安全用电常识,包括 防范过载用电、电气火灾应急处置、设备维护要点等,并建议其合理安排生产时段、错峰启用大功率机 械,以减轻电网压力,避免因用电集中导致故障跳闸。 针对检查中发现的3户存在线路过载风险的养殖户,工作人员现场制定整改方案,明确整改措施与时限, 并纳入重点服务台账进行跟踪督办。"这几天大幅降温,最担心的就是用电出问题影响养殖。供电所主 动上门帮忙检查线路,还教我们怎么安全用电,心里踏实多了!"养殖户 ...
2026年制冷剂配额下发,行情保持趋势向上;PVDF头部企业停产,有望助推反转行情 | 投研报告
Group 1 - The fluorochemical index increased by 0.12% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.47% [1][2] - The fluorochemical index closed at 4922.45 points, with a performance that surpassed the CSI 300 Index by 0.20% and the basic chemical index by 2.63%, but lagged behind the new materials index by 0.54% [2] - The 2026 refrigerant quota is expected to be issued, with limited changes compared to the 2025 quota, indicating a stable market outlook [2] Group 2 - The shutdown of a major PVDF producer, Wanhao Company, is anticipated to catalyze market changes, with current prices for PVDF reaching up to 56,000 yuan/ton [3] - The price of fluorite has shown downward pressure, with the average market price for wet fluorite at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from last week [4] - Refrigerant prices have shown an upward trend, with R134a prices exceeding 60,000 yuan/ton, supported by long-term contracts from automotive companies [5] Group 3 - Recommended stocks benefiting from the fluorochemical sector include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology [6] - Other stocks that may benefit include Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [6]
煤价合理才是常态,稳煤价逻辑依旧 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of recovery towards the target price range of 800-860 RMB/ton for thermal coal [2][3]. Group 1: Thermal Coal Market - As of December 12, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 753 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton from the previous week, while the Guangzhou port price is 815 RMB/ton, achieving the previously indicated profit-sharing target of 750 RMB [1][2]. - Despite recent price declines, the overall upward trend is expected to continue due to tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly as the energy demand season approaches with colder weather [2][3]. - Supply constraints are driven by ongoing crackdowns on overproduction and safety inspections, while demand is rising due to early heating needs and increased industrial activity [2][3]. Group 2: Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang port is 1630 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July, with coking coal futures rising from 719 RMB to 1017 RMB, a cumulative increase of 41.5% [1][2]. - The price of coking coal is closely correlated with thermal coal prices, maintaining a consistent ratio of 2.4 times [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Logic - The price recovery for thermal coal is expected to follow a four-step process, including the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving a profit-sharing equilibrium for coal and power companies, with a target price of around 750 RMB by 2025 [3]. - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio to thermal coal prices, suggesting potential prices of 1608 RMB to 2064 RMB depending on thermal coal price movements [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is positioned for a rebound due to historical low prices and improving supply-demand fundamentals, with both thermal and coking coal expected to show upward price elasticity [4]. - Companies are maintaining high dividend payouts, with several listed coal companies announcing interim dividend plans, indicating a dual logic of cyclical recovery and stable dividends [4]. - Key investment lines include cyclical logic with companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal, dividend logic with China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, diversification with Shenhuo and Electric Power Investment, and growth logic with Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [4].
12月首周国内乘用车销量承压,出海持续加速 | 投研报告
行业重点数据跟踪 市场及板块行情跟踪:本周沪深300指数-0.08%,申万汽车指数+0.16%。个股中,本周涨幅前五名分别 为超捷股份(+39.0%)、华懋科技(+28.5%)、跃岭股份(+21.9%)、华培动力(+17.6%)、征和工 业(+17.1%);本周跌幅前五名分别为厦门信达(-13.6%)、嵘泰股份(-10.9%)、隆基机械 (-9.6%)、凯龙高科(-9.3%)、迪生力(-8.6%)。乘用车销量数据跟踪: 1)周度跟踪:①批发端,2025年12月第1周(12.1-12.7),全国乘用车市场批发销量29.8万辆,同 比-40%,较上月同期-18%;新能源乘用车批发量19.1万辆,同比-22%,较上月同期+106%;新能源渗 透率64.3%,同比+7.5pct,较上月同期-1.2pct。②零售端,2025年12月第1周(12.1-12.7),全国乘用车 市场零售销量29.7万辆,同比-32%,较上月同期-8%;新能源乘用车零售量18.5万辆,同比-17%,较上 月同期+84%;新能源渗透率62.2%,同比+4.2pct,较上月同期-1.7pct。 2)月度跟踪:①批发端,11月全国乘用车市场批发29 ...
国际油价、蛋氨酸价格下跌,TDI价格上涨 | 投研报告
Core Insights - The chemical industry report indicates a mixed performance in chemical product prices, with 42 products increasing in price, 37 decreasing, and 21 remaining stable during the week of December 8-14 [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid price increases [1][6] Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 8-14, 47% of tracked chemical products saw a month-on-month price increase, while 44% experienced a decrease, and 9% remained unchanged [2] - The top price increases were noted in nitric acid, sulfuric acid, raw salt, bisphenol A, and TDI, while the largest declines were in PVA, LLDPE, trichloroethylene, and NYMEX natural gas [2] Oil Market Overview - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $57.44 per barrel (down 2.45%) and Brent crude at $61.12 per barrel (down 2.19%) [3] - The U.S. oil production averaged 13.853 million barrels per day, an increase of 38,000 barrels from the previous week and 222,000 barrels from the same period last year [3] - U.S. oil demand rose to an average of 21.082 million barrels per day, with gasoline demand increasing to 8.456 million barrels per day [3] TDI Market Analysis - TDI prices increased to an average of 14,713 yuan/ton, up 2.49% week-on-week and 5.51% month-on-month [4] - TDI production decreased, with an overall operating rate of approximately 58.55%, and various factories experiencing operational issues [4] - Average costs for TDI were 11,819 yuan/ton, down 0.92% week-on-week, while average gross profit rose by 31.79% week-on-week [4] Methionine Market Analysis - Methionine prices decreased to an average of 17,900 yuan/ton, down 2.45% week-on-week and 9.14% month-on-month [5] - The production remained stable at 18,350 tons, with an operating rate of 89.42% [5] - The cost of methionine was 13,853.73 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 23.67% [5] Valuation Metrics - As of December 12, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector was 24.14, and the price-to-book ratio was 2.19 [6] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector had a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 12.85 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.24 [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued leading companies, sectors benefiting from policy support, and emerging fields such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials [6] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [6][7]
国网昌邑市供电公司:电力有温度 服务无距离
"没想到电力师傅这么快就来了,连我家后院的电表都给换了,还教我用手机缴费,真是贴心!"11月15 日,昌邑市柳疃镇独居老人陈奶奶握着供电员工的手连声道谢。这温馨一幕,只是国网昌邑市供电公司 践行"电力有温度,服务无距离"理念的一个缩影。 近年来,国网昌邑市供电公司坚持以人民为中心的发展思想,持续深化"获得电力"服务改革,组织柳疃供 电所、下营开发区供电所、围子供电所、饮马供电所、北孟供电所、卜庄供电所、龙池供电所、开发区 供电所8个供电所推动供电服务从"被动响应"向"主动靠前"转变,从"窗口办理"向"上门服务"延伸, 从"保障用电"向"赋能生活"升级,真正让"电"不仅通到千家万户,更暖进百姓心坎。 精心谋划做好持续保供。落实"派驻经理+客户经理"双向服务模式,对重点项目制定一企一策,为客户 提供了"先于所需、高于所期"的增值服务,畅通办电绿色通道,做好企业用电的"电参谋、电小二",提 升办电营商环境、客户感知。今年以来,柳疃供电所主动提供优质服务对接辖区内重点项目14个,完成 送电12个,累计增容14880千伏安。 四进走访做优上门服务。深入开展"四进走访"活动,落地"十百千电力服务专员"机制,深入到纺织企 ...
国网邯郸市永年区供电公司: 筑牢雪天电力保供防线
Core Viewpoint - The Yongnian District Power Supply Company has activated an emergency response to heavy snowfall, ensuring the safety and stability of the power supply during adverse weather conditions [1] Group 1: Emergency Response Measures - The company has implemented a "fast, accurate, and practical" work requirement to strengthen the power grid's safety [1] - Emergency duty systems have been reinforced, with repair teams organized in advance and sufficient materials and vehicles prepared for quick response to any faults [1] - Personnel are conducting inspections in snowy conditions, increasing the frequency of checks on key lines and substations to identify and mitigate potential equipment hazards [1] Group 2: Coordination and Communication - The company is enhancing communication and coordination with local governments, focusing on key users related to public services such as water and heating [1] - A "one-on-one" power supply contact mechanism has been established to accurately address electricity demands and develop specialized power supply plans [1] - An emergency mechanism has been created to ensure regional collaboration in responding to sudden power supply emergencies [1] Group 3: Future Actions - The company will continue to monitor weather changes closely and strengthen government-enterprise collaboration and equipment monitoring [1] - There is a commitment to ensuring safe and stable electricity use for the community during the winter season with a strong sense of responsibility and mission [1]