在国庆长假期间，依然正常交易的海外市场可谓精彩纷呈。美国政府停摆、法国政局动荡并未引发权益 市场恐慌情绪恶化蔓延，美日欧股市走势强劲，贵金属则受益于美联储降息预期加速上升。本周剩余两 个交易日，市场的焦点预计将继续集中在地缘政治因素发酵、美联储政策前景及人工智能行业发展和企 业合作等消息上。 市场表现 美国三大股指在国庆期间迎来多次里程碑，投资者在很大程度上淡化了对政府停摆的担忧，转而将注意 力投向企业动态，人工智能行业热度不减，助推纳指挑战23000点，道指和标普500指数不断刷新年内高 位。 嘉信理财认为，近期美股强势有多重因素。1) 随着9月结束，市场季节性特征转向更偏看涨；2) 有关人 工智能（AI）基础设施建设的新闻持续涌现；OpenAI与AMD已达成协议，OpenAI或可收购这家芯片制 造商10%的股份；3）全期限美国国债收益率走低；4) 距离第三季度（Q3）财报季开启已不足两周， FactSet数据显示，标准普尔500指数成分股公司的每股收益（EPS）同比增速预期为7.9%，2025年全年 增速预期为9.3%。 贵金属闪耀原油震荡 日本股市一度暴力拉升，日经225指数盘中突破48000点，这与新 ...

Core Insights - The IMF and the Bank of England have issued warnings about the potential bubble in the AI-driven capital surge, highlighting the rapid increase in tech stock valuations and the accumulation of vulnerabilities and risks in the market [1][2] Group 1: Valuation Concerns - Global stock prices have surged due to optimistic sentiments regarding AI's potential to enhance productivity, with current valuations nearing levels seen during the internet boom 25 years ago [2] - The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 22 to 23 times, significantly above the long-term average of about 17 times, indicating overvaluation [2] - The top five tech companies in the S&P 500—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia—account for about 30% of the index's market capitalization, the highest concentration in 50 years, making the market particularly vulnerable to a downturn in AI expectations [2][3] Group 2: Systemic Risks - The widespread adoption of AI could lead to systemic risks as financial institutions may rely on similar AI trading or forecasting models, potentially amplifying market volatility during extreme conditions [3] - The IMF has noted that the application of AI in the financial system could accelerate market adjustments, with automated decision-making and high-frequency algorithms causing more severe price fluctuations in response to information changes [3] Group 3: Energy Costs and Infrastructure - The surge in AI computing demand is leading to increased electricity consumption in data centers, which could impact overall energy supply and demand, potentially undermining the productivity gains from AI if infrastructure bottlenecks are not addressed [4]

*美股三大股指涨跌不一，纳指、标普500再创新高 *芯片股涨势汹汹，英伟达涨2.2%，AMD涨超11% *国际金价继续上行 市场概况 英伟达收涨2.20%。其首席执行官黄仁勋表示，最近几个月需求上升，并在接受采访时称，过去六个 月，计算需求显著增加。 "（市场）对Blackwell的需求真的非常非常大，"黄仁勋说，"我认为，我们正处于新一轮建设的开端， 一场新的工业革命的开端。" 黄仁勋还证实了英伟达参与了xAI的最新一轮融资。据报道，这家马斯克旗下的人工智能初创公司正寻 求筹集约200亿美元，英伟达或将投资20亿美元。 受到英伟达股价走势提振，芯片股涨势汹汹，费城半导体指数收涨3.40%。AMD收高11.37%，安谋控股 涨4.66%，台积电涨3.57%。 贝尔德投资策略师罗斯·梅菲尔德（Ross Mayfield）称，外界已经了解AI的部分能力，某些功能确实令 人惊叹，但归根结底，芯片需要市场需求支撑，而构建在强大计算能力之上的软件层同样需要需求支 撑，目前需求依然存在，这令人安心，说明资本支出的水平并非完全泡沫化。 就在一天前，这家AI芯片龙头的股价因甲骨文股价下跌而受到拖累。此前有报道称，甲骨文的云业 ...

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has implemented policies to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, resulting in significant sales growth in related sectors [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The NDRC, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, has effectively executed the "two new" policy, leading to the distribution of long-term special government bond funds to support consumer goods replacement [1] - A total of 3.3 billion people have applied for subsidies under the consumer goods replacement program from January to August this year [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The sales revenue from related goods has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a strong market response to the policy [1] - Retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment have seen year-on-year growth rates of 28.4%, 22.3%, 22.0%, and 21.1% respectively, contributing to a 4.6% increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [1] Group 3: Financial Allocation - The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance have allocated a total of 690 billion yuan in the fourth batch of special government bonds to support the consumer goods replacement initiative, completing the annual allocation of 300 billion yuan [1] - Future efforts will focus on optimizing the use of funds, ensuring balanced and orderly expenditure of subsidies, and enhancing product quality and price supervision [1]

前三季度A股震荡攀升，三大指数均实现月线五连阳，ETF作为资金布局A股的核心通道掀起"吸金 潮"。 Wind数据显示，截至9月末，全市场ETF规模突破5.63万亿元，年内增幅超五成；其中，百亿级"巨无 霸"ETF阵营快速扩容至119只，较年初激增八成，其中近半数为股票型产品。 权益配置热情高涨推升股票型ETF结束4个月的净流出，9月单月净流入471.55亿元；同时，资金也在悄 然调仓，宽基与行业主题ETF分化显著，前者整体仍承压，后者却以941亿元月度吸金额成为资金主阵 地。 繁荣背后，行业"马太效应"越发鲜明：前十大ETF巨头控盘76%份额，头部机构凭规模效应与资源优势 主导竞争，中小公司却因千亿盈利门槛、高投入壁垒望而踌躇：有人嫌"卷到没利润"退出，有人咬牙押 注细分赛道，还有权益大厂此时选择主动杀入。 当ETF从"工具"变"战场"，这条被视为黄金赛道的地方，已然成为资源、战略与耐力的竞技场。神仙打 架，小厂求生，谁会是下一个实力玩家？ 百亿级ETF数扩至119只 前三季度，A股主要指数震荡攀升，三大指数均实现月线五连阳。数据显示，截至9月底，上证指数达 到3882.78点，年内上涨15.84%；深证成指 ...

2025.10.08 本文字数：2680，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 王方然 金额高达36.9亿元的算力合同大单，喧嚣七个月并引爆股价后，如今不仅因项目终止而"归零"，还留下 了一地鸡毛与重重疑云。 "算力黑马"海南华铁（603300.SH）近日公告，已主动终止与某神秘客户"杭州X公司"的五年期算力服 务协议。而就是这份巨额订单，一度撑起该公司转型预期的半壁江山，并刺激股价飙升近3倍。但这一 协议签订至今7个多月，不仅没有任何交付，甚至连对手方"X公司"的身份，也依旧隐藏在迷雾中。 海南华铁此举留下了重重疑点。合同签订前，海南华铁股价已提前异动；协议终止前，公司多名股东 与"牛散"已着手减持撤离。更蹊跷的是，尽管原协议明确约定，若X公司擅自解除协议，需支付巨额违 约金并补足相关损失，但海南华铁却选择了主动解约，且未提及任何违约金诉求。 37亿算力订单是乌龙？ 海南华铁近日公告称，基于原协议所涉交易及设备的市场环境、供需情况较签署时发生较大变化，且协 议签订以来未收到任何采购订单，该公司近日向X公司出具了《关于解除的函》。 公开信息显示，今年3月，海南华铁全资子公司海南华铁大黄蜂建筑机械设备有限公司（ ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, with a peak of $4040.4, marking an increase of $1413 or over 53% year-to-date [2] - Silver prices also surged, reaching $48.93, a 14-year high, driven by both financial and industrial demand, particularly in the renewable energy sector [2] - Central banks continue to increase gold reserves, with China's gold reserves rising to 7406 million ounces, marking the 11th consecutive month of increases [3] Group 2: Base Metals - Base metals experienced significant price increases, with LME tin and cobalt rising by 8.7% and 4.9% respectively, while copper, zinc, and aluminum also saw gains during the holiday period [4] - Supply disruptions are identified as the main catalyst for the surge in base metal prices, with Indonesia closing illegal tin mines and the Democratic Republic of Congo transitioning to a cobalt quota system [5] - Copper prices have been particularly affected by supply issues, with the LME copper price breaking the $10,500 per ton mark and reaching a near one-year high of around $10,700 [7] - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to rise, with Bank of America and Goldman Sachs adjusting their price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upwards due to supply constraints and macroeconomic factors [7][8]

通过投资ABB机器人，软银将进一步充实机器人板块的布局。此前，该公司已经拥有包括Agile Robots 以及AutoStore在内的机器人相关企业的投资。 2025.10.08 本文字数：1124，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 钱童心 10月8日，软银集团宣布重磅投资。公司拟以54亿美元收购瑞士工业巨头ABB的机器人业务部门。此举 是日本商业大亨孙正义掌控的这家大型科技集团押注通用人工智能（AGI）的最新举措。 软银集团董事长孙正义表示，软银的下一个前沿领域是物理人工智能（physical AI）。"我们将与ABB 机器人一起，将世界一流的技术和人才结合起来，融合人工智能和机器人技术，推动突破性的进化，推 动人类前进。" 孙正义近年来将软银的使命定义为"推动人类进化"。他看好人工智能与机器人的结合，并认为这是通往 AGI的重要路径。孙正义预测，通用人工智能将在未来2-3年内率先由大企业实现，并在未来十年内全 面实现。"要实现这一目标，需要巨额的资金，而这些资金目前只有大型企业才具备。"他表示。 人工智能正在重塑机器人领域，这也是软银商业版图中的重要投资板块。孙正义对机器人投资充满热 情，孙正义提出人 ...

本文字数：1008，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 钱童心 本周，OpenAI再次成为科技行业的焦点。该公司在与AMD签署了一项价值数十亿美元的股权协议。 在过去12个月内，OpenAI通过风险投资交易筹集了约470亿美元，估值达到约5000亿美元。 据公开信息梳理，今年以来，OpenAI已签署了价值高达约1万亿美元的交易，从而获得运行人工智能模 型的计算能力，这些协议的交易方包括AMD、英伟达、甲骨文和CoreWeave等。这些企业的利益也与 OpenAI未来的盈利能力相绑定。 通过交易，OpenAI在未来十年内将获得超过20吉瓦的计算能力，大致相当于20个核反应堆的电力。 OpenAI高管预估，按照目前的电力价格计算，每1吉瓦的人工智能计算能力的部署成本约为500亿美 元。 2025.10.08 一位硅谷投资资深人士说："OpenAI的资本密集型业务比上一代科技公司谷歌或微软要多得多，而且天 生就没有成本定律。" 通过与OpenAI的交易绑定，一些科技巨头的市值已经开始显著增长。上个月，在与OpenAI签署大手笔 交易订单后，甲骨文股价暴涨，该公司创始人拉里·埃里森（Larry Ellison）财富 ...

Group 1 - The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for 2025 was awarded to Fred Ramsdell, Mary E. Brinco, and Shimon Sakaguchi for their groundbreaking discoveries in peripheral immune tolerance mechanisms [3][4] - The total prize money of 11 million Swedish Krona (approximately 1.17 million USD) will be equally divided among the three winners [3] - Fred Ramsdell was unreachable for a period due to being on a remote hiking trip in Idaho, which led to a delay in the Nobel Committee's ability to contact him [3][4] Group 2 - Ramsdell expressed his surprise and joy upon learning about the award, recounting a humorous incident with his wife while they were camping [2] - After returning to Seattle, Ramsdell plans to celebrate with his colleagues and discuss future arrangements [3] - Mary E. Brinco also had difficulty being contacted initially, mistaking the Nobel Committee's call for spam [4]