Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, influenced by short-term passive selling due to the BCOM annual rebalancing, mid-term focus on U.S. non-farm payroll data, and long-term support from low interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar index has slightly increased, trading around 99.106, while gold prices are at $4470.89 per ounce, reflecting a 0.15% decline [1]. - The BCOM annual rebalancing, which started on January 9, is expected to lead to passive selling of approximately 240 million ounces (6800 tons) of gold, potentially causing short-term volatility [3]. - The market anticipates the U.S. non-farm payroll data to be a key indicator, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs; a significant deviation from this could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Geopolitical complexities and rising global fiscal debt are increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with institutions maintaining a bullish consensus on gold prices [4]. - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with HSBC predicting $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, and Morgan Stanley and CITIC Securities adjusting their targets to $4800 and $5100 respectively [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current gold prices are above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $4315.87, indicating a bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting that the downward pressure is diminishing [5][6]. - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, while the RSI is at 56, indicating a neutral stance with potential for further upward movement [5][6]. - A breakthrough above the $4500 level could strengthen bullish sentiment, while a drop below the 200-day EMA may signal a deeper correction [6].

供应端，恒泰期货指出，委内瑞拉发生局势变动，伊朗发生罢工冲突或引发价格变动。2026年，中国甲 醇行业预计将新增21套产能，总规模达1350.7万吨/年，全国计划退出甲醇装置4套，合计产能140万吨/ 年。 需求方面，光大期货分析称，宁波富德装置预计检修至1月中旬，但山东联泓新建装置生产正常，预计 烯烃总需求有一定支撑。 1月9日，国内期市能化板块互有涨跌。其中，甲醇期货主力合约报收于2273.00元/吨，震荡上行 1.34%。 展望后市，金信期货表示，国际供应风险上升，1月进口预期下降，短期价格震荡偏强为主。 库存方面，据紫金天风期货介绍，2025年12月卸货不顺导致港口出现了阶段性去库情况。随着卸货恢复 正常，2025年12月底港口重新进入累库阶段，预计1月上旬将延续小幅累库态势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant decline in canola meal futures, with the main contract dropping nearly 2% and closing at 2338.00 yuan, reflecting a downward trend in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Canola meal futures are experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with the supply side affected by slower-than-expected processing of Australian canola, while demand remains limited due to the off-season for aquatic consumption [2]. - The current inventory of canola meal is declining, but there is an expectation of a rebound in inventory due to increased supply from Australia, indicating that the market may have limited upward potential [2]. - The protein meal market is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with soybean meal prices supported by tight supply expectations, yet overall inventory levels remain high [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The canola meal futures market may continue to experience a downward adjustment due to high domestic soybean inventories and the expectation of a steady supply from Brazil as new harvests begin [3]. - The improvement in China-Canada trade relations is anticipated to further influence the canola meal futures market, potentially leading to a continued downward trend and affecting the buying sentiment in the soybean meal futures market [3].

CME交易所上调保证金及重要商品指数下调金银权重，或对金价构成潜在利空，但地缘政治风险引发 的避险情绪仍为金价提供支撑。此外，美国最新ADP就业数据表现不佳，增强了市场对美联储降息的预 期，目前市场预期明年将降息两次。本周，投资者需重点关注非农数据的公布，以进一步判断金价走 势。 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2026-01-07 1131.77 0.50 2026-01-06 1132.27 0.00 【要闻回顾】 摘要1月8日，COMEX黄金库存录得1131.77吨，较上一交易日减少0.5吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月8日） 收4486.50美元/盎司，上涨0.52%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4488.60美元/盎司，最低触及4415.00 美元/盎司。 1月8日，COMEX黄金库存录得1131.77吨，较上一交易日减少0.5吨；COMEX黄金周四（1月8日）收 4486.50美元/盎司，上涨0.52%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4488.60美元/盎司，最低触及4415.00美 元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： ...

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6903.00 yuan and currently trading at 6878.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.73% increase. The market outlook remains cautious with varying opinions from different institutions on future price movements [1]. Group 1: New Lake Futures - Styrene continues to face significant upward resistance, suggesting a preference for a wait-and-see approach [1]. - The closing price in Jiangsu for styrene is between 6880-6950 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Limited market news has led to a rise in futures, positively impacting the spot market [1]. - The market is currently in a destocking phase, with a projected production vacuum in the next six months and increased maintenance of facilities, indicating a potential for sustained high valuations [1]. Group 2: Minmetals Futures - The current non-integrated profit for styrene is neutral to low, with significant upward valuation potential. The supply of pure benzene remains stable, while the supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profits is declining [2]. - Styrene port inventories are significantly decreasing, and the overall operating rate in the downstream sector is showing an upward trend [2]. - It is suggested to consider going long on non-integrated styrene profits until the first quarter of next year [2]. Group 3: Guotou Anxin Futures - The downstream market is performing well, with procurement based on demand, and exports for February are still under negotiation [3]. - Production and sales of styrene are stable, with continued inventory declines, although the raw material pure benzene is accumulating, which may suppress price rebounds [3]. - The market is characterized by a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish fundamentals, leading to a continuation of price consolidation [3].

摘要1月9日，沪金主力暂报1006.50元/克，涨幅0.68%，今日沪金主力开盘价996.70元/克，截至目前最 高1007.00元/克，最低993.00元/克。 【机构观点】 【宏观消息】 美国季度生产率加速增长，12月裁员人数减少，关注周五公布的非农就业数据。美国最高法院本周或就 特朗普关税案做出裁决。美国称将不会切断委内瑞拉对中国石油供应。 美国第三季度生产率增速创两年最高水平，单位劳动力成本自2019年以来首次连续两个季度下滑。 【黄金期货行情表现】 1月9日，沪金主力暂报1006.50元/克，涨幅0.68%，今日沪金主力开盘价996.70元/克，截至目前最高 1007.00元/克，最低993.00元/克。 黄金长线上涨逻辑未变。但是美国经济数据暂不支持美联储继续快速降息，CME美联储观察显示1季度 美联储降息概率偏低。沪金偏强震荡，酝酿新动能。黄金多头相对白银、铂钯明显更稳健。建议04合约 多单继续持有。 ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and profit-taking by investors, which has reduced the purchasing power of overseas buyers [1] - The strengthening of the dollar has made commodities priced in dollars more expensive for international buyers, further suppressing demand [1] - The market is anticipating the release of US non-farm payroll data, which is expected to provide more insights into the direction of monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices rebounded from daily lows as traders increased long positions, with a key resistance level at $4500 [3] - Silver prices are under pressure as the gold-silver ratio rises above 58.00, and a drop below $74.00 could open up further downside towards the support range of $70.20-$70.80 [3] - Platinum prices have rebounded from daily lows due to buying interest, with a need to reclaim $2265 for sustainable upward momentum, and a potential target of $2450 if prices rise above $2300 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Palladium futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 503.75 yuan, with a current price of 502.70 yuan, reflecting a rise of 6.79% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guosen Futures predicts that platinum and palladium will continue to experience high-level fluctuations within a range [1] - Hualian Futures expects platinum and palladium to maintain characteristics of high volatility and wide fluctuations in the future [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to a balance of bullish and bearish forces following significant volatility, supported by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and ongoing risk-averse sentiment [1] - Increased margin requirements from exchanges and the need for market correction from previous overbought conditions are limiting further price increases [1] - The demand for palladium is primarily driven by the automotive sector, with a significant impact from the surge in penetration rates of new energy vehicles in China, which has suppressed the growth of palladium demand [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The fundamental support for palladium is limited, with its price movements largely influenced by the overall sentiment of the precious metals sector, particularly in relation to platinum and macroeconomic conditions [1] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully due to the anticipated high volatility and wide fluctuations in the market [1]

1月9日盘中，胶版印刷纸期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至4182.00元。截止发稿，胶版印刷纸主力 合约报4226.00元，跌幅0.56%。 胶版印刷纸期货主力小幅下跌0.56%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 瑞达期货 胶版印刷纸区间操作 银河期货 双胶纸估值处于低位 瑞达期货：胶版印刷纸区间操作 供应端，本期(20260102-0108)双胶纸产量20.4万吨，较上期增加0.1万吨，增幅0.5%，产能利用率 52.2%，较上期上升0.1%。库存端，截至2026年1月8日，本期双胶纸生产企业库存139.7万吨，环比增幅 0.4%。OP2602合约建议下方关注4100附近支撑，上方4400附近压力，区间操作。 银河期货：双胶纸估值处于低位 双胶纸估值处于低位，环比持平，木浆价格上涨推升成本，理论单吨亏损扩大，盈利承压明显，纸企发 布1月提价通知，但社会需求疲软制约涨价落地，部分区域成交让利。短期供需弱平衡格局难破，估值 缺乏持续大幅上涨驱动。 ...

消息面 据外媒报道，印尼能源部官员Eniya Listiani Dewi表示，因资金紧张，印尼可能提高棕榈油出口税，以 支持该国的生物柴油任务。印尼通过向棕榈油出口商征收出口税来补贴其生物柴油计划。 机构观点 宁证期货： 棕榈油"印尼政策利好预期"与"马来西亚高库存现实"之间博弈。国内现货市场方面基差成交寡淡，终端 需求一般。建议短线参与。 格林大华期货： 基本面上库存压力，出口乏力，宏观上国际原油偏强，多空交织之下棕榈油走势振荡为主。 路透调查显示，马来西亚12月棕榈油库存预计将攀升至近七年来的最高水平。根据路透社对10位贸易 商、种植商和分析师的调查预测中值，棕榈油库存预计将上升至297万吨，较11月增长4.7%，创2019年 2月以来最高水平。 数据显示，1月9日棕榈油现货价格报8710元/吨，较上一日上涨60元/吨，当日涨幅为0.69%。最近一 周，棕榈油价格累计上涨43.33元/吨，上涨幅度为0.50%；最近一个月，棕榈油价格累计下跌3.33元/ 吨，下跌幅度为0.04%。 ...