在下周于怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度会议和9月份的关键政策会议前，美联储的决策者们将面临一 个首要和核心的问题：当前对经济来说，哪个问题更大：是顽固的通胀还是放缓的劳动力市场？ 自4月份以来疲软的就业增长已促使一些官员倾向于支持最早在下个月就下调美联储的关键利率，但其 他美联储决策者的演讲和评论显示，通胀仍然是一个问题。 这可能使得美联储在9月16-17日会议上的最终举措成为一个"势均力敌"的决定。在此之前，还有一份就 业报告和一份通胀报告将发布，两者都很可能对是否降息的决定产生重大影响。这种不确定性也意味 着，美联储主席鲍威尔下周五在杰克逊霍尔的演讲将受到投资者的密切关注，以寻找关于下一步行动的 任何线索。 如果美联储官员更担心失业率将开始上升、经济步履蹒跚，他们就更有可能降低利率以降低借贷成本并 刺激借贷和支出。然而，如果他们越来越担心随着关税波及全球供应链，通胀将保持高位或恶化，他们 将更倾向于将借贷成本维持在高位，以冷却经济并降低物价。目前该利率为4.3%。 华尔街投资者目前相当肯定，美联储将在9月份降低利率，根据芝加哥商品交易所的"美联储观察"工 具，期货价格显示降息的可能性高达93%。 AI播客： ...

北京时间周六凌晨3点，美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京将在阿拉斯加举行会晤，本次会谈将主要聚 焦于俄乌冲突及和平前景。 这将是美俄领导人4年来的首次线下会晤，也是特朗普与普京自2019年以来的首次见面，同时也是普京 10年来首次踏上美国的领土。从地缘政治重要性来看，此次峰会可谓前所未有。 他还向乌克兰总统泽连斯基和多位欧洲领导人表示，希望普京同意停火，并最好能推动一场包括泽连斯 基在内的后续会谈。 普京则在阿拉斯加峰会前夕赞扬特朗普政府为结束俄乌冲突所做的努力，称其"积极真诚"。他还暗示俄 美可能在峰会上就核军备控制达成协议。 白宫周四确认，会后两人将在阿拉斯加联合举行记者会。 时间与地点安排 美俄领导人峰会定于当地时间8月15日周五上午11时开始，北京时间为周六凌晨3点。地点定在美国阿拉 斯加州安克雷奇，很可能在埃尔门多夫－理查森联合军基地举行。 有意思的是，特朗普周一在记者会上两次口误称自己将前往俄罗斯，但此次会晤确定是普京踏上美国领 土。 根据克里姆林宫的说法，会谈将包括总统在翻译的陪同下进行一对一会晤，以及双方代表团的扩大会 议。 特朗普表示，会后将致电泽连斯基和欧洲多国领导人，通报会谈内容。 特朗普称 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the momentum of the stock market may soon come to a halt, with increased risks of a downturn in the near future [1] - The firm's "equity asymmetry framework" signals a heightened risk of stock market declines, with a greater than 10% chance of a pullback in the S&P 500 index over the next three months and over 20% in the next 12 months [1] - The recent increase in pullback risk resembles the changes seen before the market downturn in April, suggesting a potential correlation with historical market behavior [4] Group 2 - Analysts highlight a "deteriorating business cycle momentum" and recent weakness in the job market, with fewer new jobs created than expected in recent months [5] - The firm anticipates inflation to rise above 3% in the second half of the year due to the effects of tariffs, which may lead to more accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [5] - With major stock indices hovering near historical highs, Wall Street remains vigilant for signs of an impending market correction, especially given the S&P 500's 10% increase year-to-date and a 29% rise since its recent low [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America warns that the dollar may face a "deadly combination" of rising annual inflation while the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, a scenario not seen in nearly two decades [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The last occurrence of suppressed real policy rates was from the second half of 2007 to the first half of 2008, during which the dollar index fell by approximately 8% [3]. - Historical analysis indicates that the dollar's depreciation begins before the Fed's rate cuts and continues afterward, similar to the current situation [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - The Fed is currently balancing economic uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs and a weak labor market outlook [3]. - Traders are pricing in an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, despite inflation accelerating to its fastest pace since January [3]. Group 3: Inflation and Projections - Bank of America estimates that even if the overall CPI remains around 0.1% monthly by year-end, the annual rate could reach approximately 2.9%, higher than mid-2025 projections [3]. - The dollar index has declined by about 1.3% in August and approximately 8% in 2025, marking the worst annual start since 2017 [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Bank of America recently encouraged traders to buy euros against the dollar, targeting a rise of about 3% to around 1.20 by year-end [3].

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 15, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 6 months [1] Regulatory Changes - The State Council has decided to amend the regulations on foreign entry and exit management, introducing a new K visa for foreign young scientific and technological talents, effective from October 1, 2025 [1] Market Activity - The number of investors participating in margin trading reached a new high for the year at 523,400 on August 13, 2025, an increase of 46,100 or 9.67% from the previous trading day [1] Company News - Ningde Times' Jiangxi mining area has been suspended since August 10, 2025, with no clear timeline for resumption, while Guoxuan High-Tech's lithium mine in the same region remains operational [2] - Cambrian Technology announced that recent online information regarding large orders and revenue forecasts is misleading and not true [3] - Tibet Tourism's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.97% within three months, with the exact timing dependent on market conditions [4] - China Telecom reported a net profit of 23.02 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a 5.5% increase year-on-year, and plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 16.58 billion yuan [5] - Hengrui Medicine's subsidiary received approval for clinical trials of SHR-7782 injection, a new cancer treatment [6] - Tianpu Co. announced a potential change in control, leading to a temporary stock suspension [6] - Dayuan Pump Industry clarified that its liquid cooling business is part of its original operations, with first-quarter sales of approximately 1.6 million yuan [6] - Jieli Rigging plans to invest 100 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on marine technology [7] - Kexiang Co. intends to raise up to 300 million yuan through a private placement for upgrading PCB production lines [7] - Zhongzhi Co.'s largest shareholder plans to transfer 24.73% of its shares through a public solicitation [7] - Kangda New Materials plans to acquire 51% of Zhongke Huamei for 275 million yuan to expand into the semiconductor integrated circuit sector [8] - Electronic City is transitioning to technology urban renewal services, but new business has not yet contributed significantly to revenue or profit [9][10]

Group 1 - The scale of funds parked in the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool has dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising market concerns about the cash held by banks at the Fed, which is a key indicator of liquidity conditions [1] - As of Thursday, 14 participating institutions had a total of $28.8 billion in the RRP, marking the lowest level since April 2021, with the number of bidding institutions also at its lowest since then [1] - The usage of the RRP tool has been declining as the U.S. Treasury issues more short-term debt to cover its growing deficit, drawing cash away from this critical backup funding source [1] Group 2 - Analysts estimate that by the end of August, RRP usage could approach zero, defining "exhaustion" as a range of $0 to $20 billion [2] - With the RRP balance nearing zero, there is little buffer left for banks, making reserves a focal point for market observation [2] - Since June 2022, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its bond holdings, with a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction observed in April [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the Fed should be able to reduce bank reserve levels to around $2.7 trillion without putting pressure on bank reserves [3]

俄罗斯总统普京：有可能与美国达成新的军备协议 美联储隔夜逆回购工具使用规模创2021年4月以来新低 据悉特朗普政府正商讨入股英特尔 美国7月PPI环比大增0.9%！创三年来最大增幅 美国财长贝森特：不太可能会重新评估美国黄金储备持仓，将停止出售比特币持仓 美联储官员反驳9月大幅降息的预期 特朗普：此次与普京的会晤为第二次会晤定下基础，如果问题解决不了，将实施制裁 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 中国央行今日将开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作 香港证监会及香港金管局就稳定币相关市场波动发表联合声明 长和最新表态：预计今年不会完成港口交易，将邀请内地投资者加入 市场盘点 周四，美元指数有所反弹，随后因美国7月PPI指数高于预期，或暗示未来几个月通胀将普遍上升，美指扩大涨幅并重回98关口上方，最终收涨0.43%，报 98.17；基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.290%，2年期美债收益率收报3.741%。 现货黄金日内持续下挫，并在美盘时段一度跌破3330美元关口，较日高大跌超40美元，最终收跌0.6 ...

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified his comments regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, stating he is not calling for a series of rate cuts but suggesting that the "neutral rate" should be approximately 150 basis points lower than current levels [1][2] - Bessent indicated that the current interest rate level is "too restrictive" and predicted that the Federal Reserve might initiate a series of rate cuts in the coming months, with a potential 50 basis point cut in September [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's current target range for the benchmark interest rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while officials estimate the long-term neutral rate to be around 3% [1] Group 2 - Bessent's comments have drawn criticism, with some experts arguing that the Treasury Secretary should not publicly express opinions on the neutral rate, as it may exert direct pressure on the Federal Reserve [2][4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with futures indicating that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates by a cumulative 150 basis points by the end of next year, and confidence in a 25 basis point cut in September has slightly decreased [4] - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard expressed concerns about inflation following the release of PPI data, suggesting that a 50 basis point cut may not align with the current economic conditions [4]

Group 1 - Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the Trump administration's "positive" efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict and hinted at a potential nuclear arms control agreement during the upcoming summit in Alaska [1] - Putin indicated that the talks with the U.S. aim to create conditions for long-term peace between the two countries and globally [1] - The New START treaty, which limits the nuclear arsenals of both nations, is set to expire in February 2026, raising concerns about future arms control agreements [1] Group 2 - Earlier this month, Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to be strategically deployed near Russia in response to provocative statements from Dmitry Medvedev, highlighting the tense relations between the two countries [2] - The summit will include a one-on-one conversation between the two presidents, followed by a working lunch, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and economic cooperation [2] - European leaders expressed cautious optimism after discussions with Trump, who agreed on the need for an immediate ceasefire and emphasized Ukraine's role in future negotiations [4]

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-over-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022 [1] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, the highest growth since February, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] - Service inflation was the primary driver of the overall PPI increase, with service prices rising by 1.1%, the largest increase since March 2022 [1] Group 2: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased by 3,000 to 224,000 for the week ending August 9, lower than the expected 228,000 [2] - Continuing claims fell to 1.95 million, indicating that many unemployed Americans are struggling to find work despite the lower initial claims [2] - The decrease in initial claims suggests that employers are not engaging in large-scale layoffs, despite economic uncertainties related to tariffs [2] Group 3: Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The implementation of high tariffs has contributed to rising inflation, although the increase has not matched earlier predictions by economists [3] - If decisive data contradicts the notion that tariffs only cause temporary inflation, it could validate concerns from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, potentially delaying interest rate cuts [3] - Some analysts downplay the significance of recent weak employment data, attributing labor market slowdowns to reduced labor supply from immigration policies [3]