SHMET 网讯：缺乏数据指引的美国债券交易员，可能眼睁睁看着十月以来的国债涨势被他们苦等多时的关键通胀数据毁于一旦。 尽管政府停摆导致本应帮助交易员判断经济与政策路径的关键官方统计延期发布，美国国债在十月大部分时间里依然上涨，推动十年期基准收益率自四 月份以来首次跌破4%。 如今，原定于10月15日发布的九月通胀数据将于本周五公布，距离美联储下一次会议仅数日之遥。虽然多数投资者认为这份CPI数据不太可能改变对10 月29日降息25个基点的预期，但若读数意外偏高，便可能颠覆市场对后续数月连续降息的共识，让近期涨幅岌岌可危。 "存在这样一种风险：高于预期的数据可能改变前景展望，"嘉信理财固定收益策略总监凯西·琼斯（Kathy Jones）表示，"它可能成为市场的'引爆点'。" 根据彭博指数，截至周三，美国国债十月累计回报率达1.3%，有望创下自二月份以来最佳月度表现。多重因素推动此轮上涨：从政府停摆可能抑制增 长，到贸易紧张局势重现，还包括多家知名企业破产以及联邦预算赤字收窄。 然而，通胀率持续高于美联储2%的目标。尽管这并未阻止美联储上月降息，但部分官员已表态称，鉴于顽固的通胀，值得对进一步降息采取谨慎态 度 ...

Group 1: Economic and Policy Developments - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed major goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on building a modern industrial system and strengthening the real economy [1] - The Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction with the EU's unilateral sanctions against Chinese companies, emphasizing the negative impact on China-EU economic cooperation and global energy security [1] Group 2: Company Announcements - Anshi Semiconductor (China) stated that decisions made by its Dutch headquarters regarding personnel changes do not have legal effect in China, and its operations remain normal [2] - China Rare Earth Group emphasized strict implementation of export control policies and the importance of production stability and technological innovation [2] - New Lai Materials announced a planned investment of 2 billion yuan in a semiconductor core component project, expected to generate over 1.5 billion yuan in annual output after reaching production capacity [2][8] Group 3: Financial Performance - EVE Energy reported a third-quarter net profit of 1.211 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.13%, with a 66.98% increase in power battery shipments for the first three quarters [3] - Tuowei Information reported a third-quarter net profit of 26.04 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 852% [4] - Juhua Co. reported a third-quarter net profit of 1.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.55%, driven by rising refrigerant prices [5] - Huichuan Technology reported a net profit increase of 27% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with significant sales in general automation and new energy sectors [6] - Shengyi Electronics projected a net profit of 1.074 billion to 1.154 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 476% to 519% [7] - Pylon Technologies reported a third-quarter net profit of 33.94 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94%, driven by growth in energy storage and battery businesses [6] - Huanwu Co. reported a third-quarter net profit of 24.32 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4202%, with significant growth in wind power brake products [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. is increasing pressure on Venezuela, with Trump seeking land action under the pretext of drug issues [2] - The U.S. has deployed B-1 bombers near Venezuela, heightening geopolitical risks and stimulating demand for safe-haven assets [2] - International oil prices surged to two-week highs due to U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, with WTI crude reaching $61.74 per barrel, up 3.99%, and Brent crude rising 5.38% to $65.90 per barrel [2][5] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.58%, and Nasdaq up 0.89% [3] - Quantum computing stocks saw significant gains, with IonQ rising 7%, Quantum up nearly 10%, and D-Wave up nearly 14% [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 1.6%, with Alibaba rising 3.6% [3] Group 3 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 0.72% at 25,967.98 points, with a trading volume of HKD 245.256 billion [4] - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 0.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index also up 0.22% [4] Group 4 - Gold prices rose by 0.66% to $4,125.19 per ounce, while silver increased by 0.86% to $48.85 per ounce [5] - Bitcoin reached $109,656, up 1.92%, and Ethereum rose to $3,832.7, up 2.35% [6]

但在持续的俄乌冲突中，一个颇具讽刺意味的转折是，对于俄罗斯拒绝回到谈判桌的共同失望和猜疑， 反而让美国和欧盟走得更近了。 今年以来，美欧关系一直颇为棘手，双方在如何支持乌克兰、贸易紧张局势和关税等问题上分歧不断， 两大经济体之间的外交关系一度十分紧张。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 本周，双方展现了统一战线，华盛顿和布鲁塞尔相继宣布了针对俄罗斯石油和天然气行业的互补性制裁 方案。 今年年初特朗普重返白宫时，美欧关系曾一度急转直下。这位美国领导人立即将矛头对准欧盟，指责其 存在不公平贸易行为，理由是欧盟在商品交换方面长期保持贸易顺差。 美国驻欧盟大使Andrew Puzder周四表示，在向俄罗斯施压以结束俄乌冲突的问题上，美国和欧盟的立 场是一致的。特朗普总统一向坚决主张结束这场冲突……但当你看到谈判进展不顺时，就需要加大压 力。" 他指出，美国和欧盟几乎同时推出制裁方案，"这表明我们需要加大力度。我们愿意这样做，希望普京 能领会到这个信息，明白这场冲突需要结束。他似乎还没有领会到，但希望这次能让他明白。" Puzder说，近几个月来，美欧关系在一些地缘政治和经济领域总体上有所改善， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil companies have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, raising concerns about the supply from one of the world's top oil producers [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Sanctions - The U.S. has blacklisted major Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, causing market fears that India, a key buyer, may reduce its purchases from Moscow [4][5]. - The sanctions represent a significant escalation in U.S. pressure on Moscow, potentially leading to major disruptions in Russian oil production and exports [5][6]. - The European Union has also imposed additional sanctions targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including a complete trading ban on Russian oil companies [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite signs of oversupply in the oil market, the sanctions could have a substantial impact, particularly as India imports over one-third of its oil from Russia [6][7]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day next year, indicating a potential buffer against the sanctions [6]. - Recent data shows that Russian oil exports have reached a 29-month high, suggesting that Russia has experience in circumventing sanctions [6][8]. Group 3: Price Movements - Brent crude prices have rebounded from a five-month low, with both WTI and Brent crude experiencing over a 4% increase, marking the largest rise since the Israel-Iran conflict began [1][9]. - The spread between near-term and longer-term Brent futures has narrowed due to concerns about potential oversupply, but recent price movements indicate a tightening market [8][9]. - Analysts expect Brent crude to trade within the range of $60 to $70 per barrel, reflecting a shift in market sentiment from oversupply concerns to potential supply disruptions [9].

号称"华尓街神算子"的Fundstrat资本公司首席投资官汤姆·李（Tom Lee）将2025年的美股表现称为"最不 受待见的V型反弹"。他表示，尽管标普500指数（SPX）有望在年底前触及7000点关口，但投资者仍被 悲观情绪笼罩，这种情绪通常只在严重熊市中才会出现。 2025年投资者悲观情绪堪比过往熊市 10月21日，汤姆·李在Fundstrat YouTube频道发布的最新分析中指出，持续的负面投资者情绪是当前市场 的关键反常现象。他特别提到，美国个人投资者协会（AAII）近期调查数据显示，看空者数量超过看 多者，这一趋势贯穿了整个2025年。 "上三次出现如此低迷的负面情绪是在1990年、2008年和2022年，而这几年都是熊市。"汤姆·李表示。 他将这种根深蒂固的恐惧与市场实际表现进行对比："投资者的行为仿佛我们正处于熊市，但今年以来 标普500指数已上涨13%。因此，我将其称为'最不受待见的V型反弹'。" 企业盈利韧性推动市场上涨 汤姆·李认为，这种"普遍恐惧情绪与强劲基本面并存"的局面，为市场大幅走高提供了动力。 标普500指数年底有望突破7000点 10月22日，汤姆·李在CNBC《收盘钟声》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices has shifted market discussions towards whether gold will rebound and reach new highs, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by demand from central banks and institutional investors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced their largest single-day drop in over a decade, leading to debates on future price recovery [1] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that various long-term capital allocators, including sovereign wealth funds and central banks, are planning to increase their gold holdings as a strategic diversification tool [1] - JPMorgan's strategist team believes that the recent gold price drop was primarily due to profit-taking by trend-following commodity trading advisors (CTAs), rather than retail investors exiting gold ETFs [1][2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - The surge in gold ETF purchases this year cannot be solely attributed to "devaluation trades" due to concerns over a weakening dollar; instead, there is a notable motivation to hedge against stock market risks [3] - Retail investors have been buying both stocks and gold while avoiding long-term bonds, which traditionally serve as a hedge against stock market risks [3] - The current allocation of gold by global non-bank investors stands at 2.6% of their total financial assets, suggesting that this ratio may still be too low if gold is to replace bonds as a hedge against stock risks [6] Group 3: Future Projections - JPMorgan's team hypothesizes that to increase the gold allocation from 2.6% to 4.6% by 2028, gold prices would need to rise by approximately 110% [8] - The assumption includes a projected increase in stock allocation to 54.6% and an annual increase of $7 trillion in the size of bonds and cash over the next three years [7][8]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a significant delay in the release of economic reports, creating uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September is expected to show a rise in inflation, with projections indicating an increase from 2.9% to 3.1% [2][3] - The cumulative effects of high inflation over the past five years have significantly impacted consumers, particularly in food prices, which have risen by 24% from 2020 to 2024 [2][3] Inflation Trends - Economists anticipate a 0.4% increase in prices for common goods and services in September, marking the fastest annual inflation rate in over a year [2] - The rise in prices is attributed to various factors, including increases in gasoline, food, and tariffs on goods, as well as slower-than-expected declines in housing-related inflation [2][3] Consumer Impact - The rising costs of food and utilities are major pain points for many Americans, particularly affecting middle and low-income households [4] - The K-shaped economic recovery is evident, with high-income individuals benefiting from rising stock markets and wages, while low-income households face a starkly different reality [4]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Insights - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $4,900 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026, citing increasing interest in gold as a strategic diversification tool [1] - UBS expects silver prices to rebound to $55 per ounce by June 2026, indicating a positive outlook for silver investments [3] - Swiss Bank analysts suggest that the recent significant drop in gold prices is a short-term oversell, with strong fundamental supply-demand dynamics supporting future price increases [2] Group 2: Currency and Economic Policy Analysis - Analysts from Dutch Bank express concerns that the dollar's ability to sustain its recent gains may be limited, especially if the market does not find reasons to rule out potential Fed rate cuts [4] - German Bank analysts predict that the upcoming U.S. inflation data may not have a lasting impact on the dollar, as the Fed is likely to focus on employment conditions rather than inflation [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Bank of Japan may maintain its policy rate unchanged due to high uncertainty regarding economic prospects [6] Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - Barclays economists predict that the Bank of Japan may raise its economic growth forecast for FY2025 from 0.6% to 0.8%, based on reduced tariff uncertainties and strong GDP growth [7] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of England will likely cut rates in February 2024, with the potential for earlier cuts due to lower-than-expected inflation data [8] - French Bank analysts suggest that the Bank of England may lower rates in December, putting further pressure on the pound [9] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Citic Securities highlights the strategic value of the rare earth industry, driven by export control policies and increasing demand from various sectors [6] - Citic Securities also sees potential bottoming opportunities in the liquor industry, with expectations of a recovery in market demand by Q3 2025 [7] - Citic Securities projects a moderate appreciation of the RMB in 2026, supported by favorable external conditions and domestic economic stability [8]

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 65 contracts rising and 14 contracts falling today, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] - Significant increases were observed in the prices of coking coal (+5.14%), coke (+4.21%), lithium carbonate (+4.17%), crude oil (+4.05%), and fuel oil (+3.42%) [5] - Conversely, the largest declines were seen in rapeseed (-1.22%), palm oil (-1.0%), and soybean oil (-0.7%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6] Capital Flow - The most significant capital inflows were into the CSI 1000 (+7.413 billion), CSI 500 (+3.16 billion), and CSI 300 (+3.043 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - The largest capital outflows were from gold (-1.741 billion), soybean meal (-553 million), and silver (-379 million), suggesting notable withdrawals from these commodities [8] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were seen in lithium carbonate (+18.66%), coking coal (+14.44%), and CSI 1000 (+11.70%), indicating new funds entering these markets [11] - Significant decreases in open interest were recorded in lead (-12.28%), tin (-13.84%), and industrial silicon (-21.09%), suggesting potential exits by major funds [11] Key Events - In September, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with the total reaching 888.6 billion kWh [12] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.7021 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 thousand tons from the previous week [12] - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending policy may be delayed until 2027 due to funding constraints and unfavorable price differentials [13] Industry Insights - The urea industry is experiencing a significant decline in operating rates, with new high inventory levels reported [14] - As of October 23, rebar production has increased, while both factory and social inventories have decreased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15] - Glass inventory has reached a three-month high, with a notable increase in stock levels across most regions [15] Future Focus - Upcoming data releases include U.S. initial jobless claims and September CPI, which are expected to influence market sentiment and economic outlook [17][18]