在美国史上最长的政府停摆之后，数据的缺乏也不太可能帮助美联储的投票委员们达成共识。 但瑞银认为，美联储届时能够获得的数据，可能会显示出经济面临持续的下行风险。 瑞银表示："假日招聘报告一直很疲软，裁员的公告也在不断增加……经济的下行风险尚未解除。" 博斯蒂克在近期的讲话中表示："我对前两次降息感到满意。至于下一次，我们得走一步看一步。我希 望依据数据来决定最合适的政策。" 而在10月份投票反对美联储降息决定的施密德则指出，再次降息对 提振劳动力市场的效果存在不确定性，他认为劳动力市场正受到政策不确定性和移民政策收紧的拖累， 这些因素限制了劳动力供应。 施密德说道："我认为进一步降息对于弥补劳动力市场的任何裂痕都无济于事——这些压力很可能源于 技术和移民政策的结构性变化。" 这些观点与FOMC中倾向鸽派的其他成员相冲突，特别是理事米兰，他持续呼吁在12月再次降息50个基 点。 本周晚些时候即将公布的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要，很可能会在市场对美联储12月是 否降息看法不一之际，将决策者之间的分歧深度暴露无遗。 但瑞银认为，预计在12月会议前出炉的"全部数据"，并不足以动摇支持今年第三次降息的普遍情绪 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 此举令许多巴菲特的追随者感到意外，因为这位亿万富翁几十年来一直对高增长的科技公司持谨慎态 度。巴菲特一直将伯克希尔的第一大重仓股苹果公司，视为一家消费品公司。 因此，对Alphabet的这笔投资决策很可能是巴菲特的两位副手之一，Todd Combs或Ted Weschler做出 的，他们对伯克希尔高达3000亿美元的股票投资组合的影响力与日俱增。伯克希尔许多偏向科技股的投 资，都出自这两人之手，包括2019年开始建仓的亚马逊。至今，伯克希尔仍持有价值22亿美元的亚马逊 股票。 不过，考虑到这笔投资的规模，此举很可能得到了巴菲特的首肯，而巴菲特本人将于今年年底卸任首席 执行官一职。 Alphabet是今年美股的最大赢家之一，股价累计上涨了46%，投资者对其在人工智能领域的加速推进和 云业务盈利能力的迅速改善给予了积极回报。曾一度拖累利润率的谷歌云，其收入增长现已转变为关键 的盈利驱动力。 权力交接的信号？ 音频由扣子空间生成 Glenview Trust Company的首席投资官Bill Stone表示，随着领导权向下一代过渡，收购Alphabet可能反 映出伯克希尔在科 ...

Core Viewpoint - India's merchandise trade deficit reached a record $41.68 billion in October, driven by a staggering 199.2% year-on-year increase in gold imports to $14.72 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations and last year's figures [1] Group 1: Gold Imports - Gold imports in India surged to a record $14.72 billion in October, accounting for 19.35% of total merchandise imports of $76.06 billion [1] - The increase in gold imports was fueled by a strong demand during the traditional festive season, with estimated purchases reaching $11 billion [2] - The price of gold in India remained high at approximately ₹129,000 per 10 grams (around $1,540), yet demand continued to rise due to cultural significance and inflation hedging [2] Group 2: Trade Deficit and Exports - The trade deficit expanded significantly due to a sharp decline in exports, which fell by 11.8% year-on-year to $34.38 billion, marking an 11-month low [3] - Exports to the U.S. decreased for the second consecutive month, down 8.6% to $6.3 billion, influenced by increased tariffs on Indian products [3] - The jewelry sector experienced a notable decline, with gem and jewelry exports dropping by 29.5%, contrasting sharply with the surge in gold imports [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the record gold imports in October, forecasts suggest a gradual decline in import levels in the coming months, particularly after the festive season [4] - The current account deficit is expected to widen from 1.8% of GDP in the second quarter to 2.4%-2.5% in the third quarter of the fiscal year [4] - Ongoing global economic slowdown, geopolitical uncertainties, and commodity price fluctuations are anticipated to continue pressuring export recovery [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have raised questions about whether the strong upward trend seen this year is nearing its end, with prices dropping from a peak of approximately $4,400 per ounce to below $4,000, and experiencing a range between $3,900 and $4,205 [2][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows strong GDP growth, but rising unemployment and inflation present challenges for the Federal Reserve [3] - The unemployment rate increased from 3.4% in July to 4.3% in August, with significant layoffs announced, totaling 1.1 million in 2024, a 44% increase from the previous year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.3% to 3% in September, indicating inflationary pressures [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased from 4.77% in January to 4.14%, while the dollar index fell from 109 to 99.5, creating favorable conditions for gold [4] - Historically, gold prices tend to move inversely to yields and the dollar, making gold more attractive as a safe-haven asset when yields decline and the dollar weakens [4] Group 3: Goldman Sachs' Forecast - Goldman Sachs has reassessed its gold price outlook for 2026, predicting that the recent pullback in gold prices will be short-lived due to ongoing central bank purchases [6] - The bank reported that central banks bought 64 tons of gold in September, a significant increase from 21 tons in August, and expects this trend to continue [6] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that central banks will average monthly purchases of 80 tons of gold from Q4 2025 to 2026, with a target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group has rapidly declined from being a market favorite to one of the worst-performing Chinese tech stocks, facing challenges in the smartphone and electric vehicle markets, making short-term recovery difficult [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - Xiaomi is expected to report its slowest revenue growth since 2023, raising concerns among investors [1] - The company's stock has dropped nearly 30% since its peak in September, ranking among the largest declines in the Hang Seng Tech Index [1] - The average target price for Xiaomi's stock has been reduced by over 8% since its August high, making it the third-largest downward adjustment in the Hang Seng Tech Index, following Meituan and Li Auto [2] Group 2: Cost Pressures and Profitability - Rising storage chip prices are anticipated to erode Xiaomi's smartphone profit margins, with mobile DRAM contract prices increasing by 21% in October, the highest level since July 2022 [1] - Analysts indicate that the ongoing "super cycle" in storage chips will pressure profit margins for companies like Xiaomi, as these costs cannot be fully passed on to consumers [2] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Business - Xiaomi is focused on increasing electric vehicle delivery volumes, with a goal of achieving profitability in this sector by the end of the year [2] - Concerns exist regarding the potential impact of the gradual withdrawal of government subsidies on the overall automotive market [2] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Stock Valuation - Despite the stock's decline, its valuation has become more attractive, with a projected future price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 19 times, half of its early-year peak [2] - Domestic investors have been increasing their positions in Xiaomi, with net purchases for thirteen consecutive days through the trading link mechanism [2] - The short-selling ratio of Xiaomi's stock has risen from a low of 0.4% in July to nearly 0.7%, driven by concerns over safety, factory delays, and insufficient electric vehicle demand despite recent promotions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are warning that the recent decline in the U.S. stock market may evolve into a broader correction, with significant sell-offs observed in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has dropped 3.2% since reaching a historical high on October 28, marking the largest decline since the February to April crash [1]. - The index closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 139 trading days, breaking a record for the second-longest period above this trend line in the 21st century [1]. - The Nasdaq also fell below its 50-day moving average, ending a streak of 187 trading days above this level, the longest since October 1995 [1]. Technical Analysis - John Roque from 22V Research noted that more stocks in the Nasdaq are hitting 52-week lows than highs, indicating internal market weakness and low chances for a rebound [2]. - Dan Wantrobski from Janney Montgomery Scott predicts further volatility for the S&P 500, suggesting a potential decline of 5% to 10% by the end of December [2]. - Analysts are observing a shift in market dynamics, with retail investors reducing risk exposure and buying on dips pausing as the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average [3]. Sector Performance - The recent market weakness has been primarily driven by previously leading technology stocks, which have stalled after a significant rise of 38% from April to October [3]. - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants have collectively dropped nearly 4.5% this month, with only Alphabet showing a gain [3]. Upcoming Earnings and Economic Data - Major retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are set to release earnings reports, which may influence market sentiment ahead of the holiday shopping season [4]. - Economic data that has been missing for the past seven weeks will begin to be released, highlighting signs of economic slowdown, particularly in the job market [4]. Market Outlook - Despite recent declines, the S&P 500 is still up over 13% year-to-date, and the Nasdaq has gained nearly 18% [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current rotation of funds away from large tech stocks may help alleviate some of the accumulated bubbles in growth sectors [4]. - Ned Davis Research describes the recent sell-off as "manageable," indicating that the potential for a rebound remains, but warns of the risk of forming a market top if the consolidation continues without re-establishing an upward trend [4].

Core Points - The UN Security Council approved a resolution drafted by the US, endorsing President Trump's plan to end the Gaza conflict and authorizing the deployment of international stabilization forces [1][2] - The resolution is seen as legitimizing a transitional governance body and aims to facilitate the reconstruction and economic recovery of Gaza [1] - Hamas has stated it will not disarm and views its actions against Israel as legitimate resistance, potentially leading to conflict with the authorized international forces [1] Group 1 - The resolution includes Trump's "20-point plan" as an attachment, which is seen as a potential pathway for Palestinian self-determination [2] - The resolution aims to break Hamas's control and ensure Gaza's prosperity and security [2] - Russia and China abstained from voting, allowing the resolution to pass [2] Group 2 - The resolution mentions the possibility of Palestinian statehood contingent on reforms by the Palestinian Authority and progress in Gaza's reconstruction [3] - The US will promote dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to reach a consensus on a peaceful coexistence [3] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state under pressure from right-wing members of his government [3]

吴雨，金十数据 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos撰文指出，无论结果如何，美联储12月会议至少可能出现三张反对票—— 如果决定维持利率不变，特朗普任命的三位理事将投反对票；如果美联储降息25个基点，也至少会有三 人异议。 在缺乏新经济数据指导复杂决策的情况下，美联储官员们正面临一项挑战：解决利率设定方面的分歧。 这一派的规模近期有所扩大，目前包括四位今年拥有货币政策投票权的地方联储主席，以及美联储理事 迈克尔·巴尔（Michael Barr）。 作为美联储领导层成员，杰斐逊通常会强化主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的观点，鲍威尔预计 将在调和下月分裂的政策制定委员会方面发挥关键作用。 近几周，市场对美联储在12月9日至10日会议上降息的预期稳步下降，这在没有重大经济指标发布的时 期实属罕见。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）数据显示，周一早盘，市场隐含的降息概率约为45%，低于一周前的 60%，也低于10月28日至29日会议时的90%。 杰斐逊周一重申了此前的观点：利率目前仍处于"略具限制性"的水平，这将抑制经济增长，但近期的降 息已使利率更接近既不刺激也不减缓经济活动的中性水平 ...

Group 1 - Innovative pharmaceutical company Heng Rui Medicine has received clinical trial approval for two new anti-tumor drugs, HRS-6209 and HRS-2189, with total R&D investments of approximately 80.37 million yuan and 49 million yuan respectively [1] - Leading circuit board manufacturer Shengyi Electronics plans to raise up to 2.6 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance its artificial intelligence computing capabilities [2] - Sci-Tech Information is under investigation for suspected information disclosure violations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3] Group 2 - Baiao Chemical's subsidiary plans to invest 219 million yuan in the development of advanced dry etching equipment in collaboration with domestic universities and research institutions [4] - Haixia Innovation's stock will be suspended for up to three trading days for verification due to a significant price increase of 185.89% over the past month [5] - Chuan Yi Co., Ltd. has completed the transfer of control to Guojiji Instrument Company after the agreement to transfer shares from its major shareholders [6] Group 3 - Hongye Futures has completed a 1% share reduction by its major shareholders [7] - Unigroup plans to acquire 174,500 shares of Xinhua San for 128 million USD, increasing its stake from 81% to 82.8% [8] - Yijiahe's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2% [9] Group 4 - Yaxing Chemical intends to acquire 100% of Tianyi Chemical's shares, with the stock resuming trading on November 18 [10] - ST Zhongdi's stock will resume trading on November 18 after a significant price increase of 153.19% [11] - CATL's inquiry transfer price is set at 376.12 yuan per share, reflecting a 3.8% discount from the previous closing price [12] Group 5 - Baoli Food's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [13] - Jiumu Wang reports that its operations are normal, with no significant changes in the internal and external business environment [14] - Zheshang Bank has nominated Chen Haiqiang as the new chairman [15] Group 6 - Purun Co. plans to acquire a 31% stake in Noah Changtian for 144 million yuan [17] - Fushuo Technology's nylon film project faces risks of not achieving expected investment returns [18] - Rongjie Co. has reported stock trading anomalies with a price increase of over 20% [19] Group 7 - People's Tongtai's stock price has significantly deviated from its operational performance, prompting caution among investors [20] - Shengke Communication's major shareholder has reduced its stake by 2.49% [21] - Shikong Technology's stock has experienced a significant price increase, raising concerns about market sentiment and potential risks [22] Group 8 - Aerospace Development's stock has shown a price increase of over 20% in two consecutive trading days [23][24] - Shengxin Lithium Energy's stock has experienced trading anomalies [25] - Panda Dairy has adjusted its investment scale and changed the use of raised funds [26] Group 9 - Han Jia Design's subsidiary's chairman is under investigation [27] - Heshun Petroleum has signed an intention agreement for a potential acquisition [28] - Jiu Dian Pharmaceutical plans to acquire a 10% stake in Nona Pharmaceutical for 46.58 million yuan [29] Group 10 - Ayabo Pharmaceutical intends to transfer 62% of its stake in Taiyuan Pharmaceutical for 87.19 million yuan [30] - Shenzhen New Star's subsidiary has received approval for trial production of a boron trifluoride project [31] - Dexin Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by 1% [32] Group 11 - Dongshan Precision has paid approximately 2.633 billion yuan for the acquisition of Solstice Optoelectronics [32] - Rongsheng Development has signed a debt restructuring contract worth 2 billion yuan [33] - China General Nuclear Power is set to begin construction of the Zhaoyuan No. 1 nuclear reactor [34] Group 12 - Tianpu Co. has received a comprehensive takeover offer at 23.98 yuan per share [35] - Binhai Energy has terminated its plan to issue shares for asset acquisition [36] - Guoge Technology's shareholders plan to reduce their stake by up to 3.99% [37] Group 13 - Kexin Technology has achieved preliminary results in the development of RF transceiver chips [38] - Huayin Power plans to raise up to 1.5 billion yuan through a private placement [39] - Rishang Group's stock has experienced significant trading anomalies [40] Group 14 - Hainan Mining's stock has shown a price increase of over 20% in two consecutive trading days [41] - Wuku Capital plans to redeem 20 million shares of its preferred stock [42] - ST Songfa's subsidiary has signed significant contracts for shipbuilding worth 2-3 billion USD [43] Group 15 - Water Development Gas is transferring 100% of its subsidiary's equity and related debts [44] - Huaci Co. has experienced trading anomalies [45] - Shijie Technology's stock has shown significant trading anomalies [46] Group 16 - China Eastern Airlines reported a 10.58% increase in passenger turnover in October [57] - Yinglian Co. has signed a strategic procurement contract for composite aluminum foil with a new energy technology company [58] - Shibao Testing's stock has shown a price increase of over 30% in three consecutive trading days [59] Group 17 - Beileisure has set the inquiry transfer price at 25.35 yuan per share [60] - Daimai Co. plans to invest 100 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary for robotics [61]

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos撰文指出，无论结果如何，美联储12月会议至少可能出现三张反对票—— 如果决定维持利率不变，特朗普任命的三位理事将投反对票；如果美联储降息25个基点，也至少会有三 人异议。 在缺乏新经济数据指导复杂决策的情况下，美联储官员们正面临一项挑战：解决利率设定方面的分歧。 "风险平衡的演变凸显出降息需循序渐进的必要性，"杰斐逊在堪萨斯城联储的一次讲话中表示。 除了这一观点，杰斐逊的言论既未支持长期暂停降息，也未为下月会议降息提供依据——这一决策正变 得异常具争议性。 作为美联储领导层成员，杰斐逊通常会强化主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的观点，鲍威尔预计 将在调和下月分裂的政策制定委员会方面发挥关键作用。 近几周，市场对美联储在12月9日至10日会议上降息的预期稳步下降，这在没有重大经济指标发布的时 期实属罕见。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）数据显示，周一早盘，市场隐含的降息概率约为45%，低于一周前的 60%，也低于10月28日至29日会议时的90%。 美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）周一用实例展现了该央行的困境，他承认 ...