尽管日本首相石破茂与特朗普在加拿大G7峰会前夕三次通话讨论关税，但本周双方仍未达成协议。 赤泽亮正周五称，他目前尚未安排与美国同行的下一轮谈判，并说日本"不会为对话设具体死线"，且再 次将贸易磋商比作"雾中前行"——这是他在G7峰会前使用的表述。 他还暗示，中东局势紧张等事务分散了美国注意力，可能导致美方"难以为日美谈判分配足够时间推动 实质进展，双方均面临此状况，关税谈判并非唯一议程。" 在赤泽亮正表态前一日，石破茂与反对党领袖会面，席间透露"日美汽车贸易顺差"是谈判症结。与其他 国家一样，日本汽车及零部件被加征25%关税，钢铁铝产品则面临50%税率。 "日美均有不可妥协的国家利益，保护汽车产业利润是日本核心诉求。"赤泽亮正强调。 日本最高贸易谈判代表表示，日本不会紧盯所谓"对等关税"恢复最高税率的日期，这表明这个亚洲国家 已经做好了谈判可能会拖延的准备。 "为避免误解，我需明确我从未说过7月9日是日美谈判的最后期限。"日本经济振兴大臣赤泽亮正 （Ryosei Akazawa）周五在东京对记者表示，"日美正通过多种渠道定期沟通，将持续探讨最有效方案 并展开恰当磋商。" 当被问及"日本是否寻求延长全面关税起征 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting views on Iran's nuclear capabilities, highlighting Trump's belief that Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon, while others argue there is no credible evidence supporting this claim [1][2][3] - Critics of potential military intervention reference the historical context of the Iraq War, emphasizing the need for careful consideration before engaging in another conflict in the Middle East [1][4] - The article notes the division among American voters regarding overseas military intervention, contrasting the post-9/11 unity with the current skepticism [4][5] Group 2 - The influence of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on U.S. foreign policy decisions regarding Iran is mentioned, raising concerns about the motivations behind military action [4] - The article highlights the tension within Trump's support base, with some accusing him of abandoning the "America First" principle in favor of a more interventionist approach [5] - The discussion includes the historical consistency of Trump's stance on Iran, suggesting that his current position aligns with his long-held views against Iran obtaining nuclear weapons [5]

美国上诉法院周四作出裁决，允许特朗普保留对加利福尼亚州国民警卫队的控制权，同时该州民主党州 长继续推进诉讼，挑战这位共和党总统动用军队平息洛杉矶抗议活动的合法性。 特朗普向洛杉矶部署军队的决定，引发了关于在美本土动用军事力量的全国性辩论，并加剧了美国人口 第二大城市的政治紧张局势。 布雷耶的裁决源于纽森对特朗普行动提起的诉讼，他认定特朗普违反了一项美国法律——该法律要求总 统在控制州国民警卫队前需与州长协调，且法律规定的允许该行动的条件（如针对联邦权威的叛乱）不 存在，并下令将加州国民警卫队控制权归还纽森。 上诉法院则称，特朗普可能满足法律规定的第三个条件——"政府无法用常规部队执行法律"，因为抗议 者向移民当局车辆投掷物品、用垃圾桶当撞锤、投掷燃烧弹并破坏财产，阻碍了执法。司法部曾称，总 统一旦认定存在动用国民警卫队的紧急情况，法院或州长无权审查该决定，但上诉法院驳回了这一论 点。 特朗普6月7日在洛杉矶抗议活动期间，不顾纽森反对，控制加州国民警卫队并部署4000名士兵，随后又 下令700名海军陆战队员进驻。洛杉矶抗议活动持续一周多后平息，市长凯伦·巴斯（Karen Bass）周二 宣布解除宵禁。 旧金山第 ...

在伊以冲突持续之际，流亡海外的伊朗反对派认为夺权时刻临近，但参与过此前抗议的活动人士称，即 便憎恨现行体制，他们也不愿在国家遭攻击时发动大规模动荡。 自身严重分裂的伊朗政府反对者在敦促街头抗议。边境地区的库尔德和俾路支分离主义团体伺机而动， 恰逢以色列空袭重创伊朗安全机构。然而，尽管当局看似比1979年革命后任何时期都虚弱，但任何对其 46年统治的直接挑战，可能都需要民众起义。 巴列维王朝末代国王之子、旅居美国的礼萨·巴列维（Reza Pahlavi）本周在媒体采访中称，他希望领导 一次政治过渡，宣称这是40年来推翻伊斯兰共和国的最佳时机，"这是我们的历史时刻"。以色列总理内 塔尼亚胡向伊朗人喊话称"我们也在为你们扫清通往自由的道路"，显然将"政权更迭"列为战争目标之 一。 这个长期擅长镇压异见的统治体系已显备战迹象。经常被部署对抗抗议者的巴斯基民兵（Basij）成员 穆罕默德·阿明（Mohammad Amin）称，库姆的部队已处于警戒状态，旨在铲除以色列间谍并保护政 权。 但活动人士指出，空袭虽打击了此前镇压抗议的安全体系，却也给普通人带来巨大恐惧与混乱——民众 对伊朗当局和以色列均感愤怒。曾入狱六年的知名 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of the upcoming talks in Geneva is to prevent the escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel, marking the first high-level diplomatic engagement since Israel's recent attack on Iran [1] - The discussions aim to establish a framework for monitoring Iran's nuclear program, including demands for unrestricted access for international inspectors and commitments from Iran to reduce its ballistic missile stockpile [2] - The backdrop of these talks includes the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, which led to Iran expanding its nuclear activities, with uranium enrichment levels nearing weapon-grade [2] Group 2 - The French Foreign Minister emphasized that negotiations remain the only viable path to sustainably curb Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs [2] - The UK Foreign Secretary is expected to convey a message from the U.S. to Iran, indicating that diplomatic solutions are still possible [2] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about potential military actions, with speculation about U.S. military involvement in the region [3]

周五亚盘，现货黄金从日高3370回落近20美元，一度跌至3350美元/盎司下方。现货白银短线跌幅扩大至近0.4美元，纽约期银日内跌幅达3.00%。 然而，本周也出现了一些迹象：投资者考虑到黄金目前的高位，正将避险资金转向铂金。 美联储主席鲍威尔本周早些时候警告称，由于特朗普关税政策的影响，通胀风险正在显现。这可能使得美联储更难以降息，而降息通常对黄金有利，因为黄 金本身不支付利息，在低利率环境下表现更佳。 尽管本周出现下跌，但今年以来黄金价格仍累计上涨超过25%，并且仍然维持在今年4月创下的略高于3500美元的纪录高位附近。 华尔街对黄金能否延续其创纪录的涨势存在分歧。 法兴银行表示，黄金可能处于一个拥挤的交易之中。该行的市场策略师将在第三季度保持对黄金7%的敞口，认为这种金属既保持着一种强劲的势头，也是 对持续地缘政治不确定性的对冲。 分析师表示："我们并不急于获利了结，价格仍低于4000美元的目标。随着各国央行继续增加储备并从美元转向多元化，我们仍然看好黄金。保护央行储备 并与美国脱钩正在触发去美元化。各国央行的购买仍然是金价的驱动力，我们估计到明年第二季度金价可能达到4200美元。" 该行认为，短期内金 ...

Group 1 - President Xi Jinping emphasized the urgency of a ceasefire in the Middle East, stating that the use of force is not the correct way to resolve international disputes [1] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is expected to see a significant production cut in Q3, with operating rates projected to decrease by 10%-15% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced it will expedite the review of export license applications related to rare earths, aiming to maintain global supply chain stability [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Index will officially launch the China Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor Index on June 20, 2025, which will include 50 companies from the STAR Market and ChiNext [2] - The Ministry of Commerce highlighted the importance of China-EU economic and trade relations, emphasizing ongoing communication and cooperation [2] Group 3 - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of 27.673 yuan per share for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling 34.671 billion yuan [3] - Zhongqi New Materials reported that Starry Sky Technology has become its controlling shareholder [3] - Lianchuang Optoelectronics noted strong demand for drone countermeasure equipment in the Middle East [3] Group 4 - Fuhuang Steel Structure announced the termination of its plan to issue shares and pay cash for asset purchases [4] - Shengnuo Bio expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of the year, projecting a year-on-year growth of 254%-332% [4] Group 5 - Zhongyan Chemical plans to agree to a capital reduction for Zhongyan Alkali Industry, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [5] - Kanda New Materials intends to acquire at least 51% of Zhongke Huamei's shares to expand into the semiconductor integrated circuit field [6] Group 6 - Times Publishing clarified that it does not engage in stablecoin business and has a minimal indirect stake in JD Technology [8] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls confirmed the final price for its H-share issuance at 22.53 HKD per share [9] Group 7 - Taiji Co. announced that Changjiang Industrial Group will become its indirect controlling shareholder, with stock resuming trading on June 20, 2025 [10] - Guosen Securities received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its acquisition of 96.08% of Wanhe Securities [10] Group 8 - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical completed the first participant enrollment for its Phase III clinical trial of the innovative drug RAY1225 for obesity [11] - Yuncong Technology stated that its multi-modal AI technology for live detection can be applied to stablecoin wallet scenarios [12]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that geopolitical risks will elevate oil prices, with Brent crude potentially facing a $10 per barrel risk premium despite expectations of a drop to around $60 per barrel in Q4 under normal supply conditions [1] - Fitch Ratings states that the fiscal outlook for the U.S. remains challenging, projecting that the general government fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP will decrease from nearly 8% in 2024 to 7.1% in 2025, but will rise to 7.6% by 2026 [1] - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if the U.S. confirms involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, the dollar may decline, as U.S. intervention could accelerate the conflict's resolution and reduce Iran's motivation for oil supply disruptions [1] Group 2 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to act hastily in the face of inflation, maintaining a cautious stance and indicating no immediate plans for rate cuts [2] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to implement two or fewer rate cuts in 2023, with the central tendency for the target rate remaining at 3.9% [3] - CITIC Securities anticipates that Level 3 (L3) autonomous driving will become the main upgrade direction from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by increased regulatory focus on safety [4] Group 3 - China Merchants Macro reports that the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to potential stagflation risks is delaying rate cuts, with internal divisions evident regarding future monetary policy [5][6] - Huaxi Securities notes that the market is returning to a volatile pattern, with upward pressure from profit-taking and support for bullish sentiment [6] - Minsheng Macro predicts that hard economic data in the U.S. will likely decline in the second half of the year, with stagflation risks becoming a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that Trump's spending plan cannot prevent the U.S. national debt from rising to "unsustainable" levels, with current debt levels only second to those during World War II [1][2]. Group 1: Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. will need to pay $1 trillion in interest on $36 trillion of national debt next year, which exceeds the total spending on Medicare and defense combined [1]. - The current path of debt accumulation is unsustainable, with primary deficits far exceeding normal levels, and the debt-to-GDP ratio approaching post-World War II peaks [1][2]. - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to become the second-largest government expenditure after Social Security next year [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Political Challenges - Goldman Sachs warns that if debt continues to grow, the government will need to maintain historically rare and politically challenging fiscal surpluses to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Republican spending bill will increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade [2]. - The complexity of increasing taxes or cutting spending poses significant political challenges, making it difficult to address the debt issue effectively [2]. Group 3: Potential Consequences of Inaction - Delaying action on the debt issue may force Congress to make more difficult decisions in the future, potentially leading to extreme austerity measures that could negatively impact GDP [2]. - There is a risk that politicians may resort to excessive money printing to pay off debts, which could lead to hyperinflation and social unrest, as evidenced by historical precedents [2].

Market Overview - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, leading to fluctuations in various asset classes [3][9]. - The U.S. dollar index reached a peak of 99 before closing down 0.04% at 98.86, while U.S. Treasury yields showed volatility, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.3960% [3]. - Gold prices remained stable, closing up 0.03% at $3370.31 per ounce, while silver fell by 0.91% to $36.37 per ounce [6]. Stock Market Performance - European stock indices closed lower, with the German DAX30 down 1.12% and the French CAC40 down 1.34% [4]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.99% to 23237.74 points, with significant declines in new consumption and innovative drug sectors [4]. - A-shares also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% and the Shenzhen Component down 1.21% [5]. Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.28% to $73.81 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 3.5% to $78.69 per barrel, reflecting market volatility amid geopolitical tensions [6]. Economic Indicators - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4.25%, indicating internal divisions among policymakers regarding future rate changes [12]. - The U.S. is expected to release key economic indicators, including the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, which could impact market sentiment [13].