AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普周五为哈马斯设定了最后期限，要求其同意自己提出的结束加沙战争的计划，并警告 称，若该组织拒绝签署，将面临严重后果。 特朗普周五在社交媒体上发文称："我要求所有无辜的巴勒斯坦民众立即离开这片未来可能发生大规模 伤亡的区域，前往加沙地带更安全的地方。等候在安全区域的人员会为大家提供妥善照料。哈马斯必须 立即释放所有人质，包括已遇难者的遗体，必须在华盛顿特区时间周日晚上6点前（北京时间周一早上6 点前）达成协议。所有国家均已签署同意！若未能达成，哈马斯将面临前所未有的灭顶之灾。无论通过 何种方式，中东必将实现和平。" 本周早些时候，特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡共同宣布了一项"20点计划"，又称"全面解决加沙冲突 计划"。该计划要求哈马斯释放所有以色列人质，并解除武装；同时规定以色列军队分阶段从加沙撤 军。 尽管内塔尼亚胡已签署该协议，且特朗普声称获得了其他中东盟友的支持，但哈马斯尚未同意其条款。 据纽约时报报道，哈马斯一名高级政治成员表示，该组织愿意讨论加沙战争相关方案，但不会接受 "要 么接受、要么放弃" 的强硬要求。 "哈马斯正严肃讨论这份 ...

截至发稿，现货白银再度逼近每盎司48美元，剑指1980年创下的49.95美元的历史高位。至少在2025年，白银的回报率位居榜首，而黄金以47%的回报率屈 居第二。 道明证券（TD Securities）的丹尼尔·加利勒（Daniel Ghalil）于周四发布了一份最新报告，他发现白银租赁利率（即借入白银所需支付的利率）已攀升至"极 高水平"，这一现象足以表明伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）的白银库存已严重枯竭。该协会是全球最重要的黄金和白银批发市场。 加利勒称，印度9月的白银进口量翻了一番，这一买入行为进一步耗尽了库存。本周中国市场参与者因国庆黄金周假期缺席，更是加剧了白银供应的紧张局 面。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成 一位大宗商品分析师认为，白银价格的挤压态势正达到顶点，市场混乱程度已极为严重，未来几周或许会"自我化解"。 今年现货白银价格累计上涨65%，目前已攀升至14年来的高点，距离45年前创下的历史峰值仅一步之遥。 通常情况下，中国的供应会为伦敦市场提供支撑，而此次供应缺口直接放大了价格波动。实物交换（即实物白银持有者可通过交付白银来履行期货合约）规 模大幅下降，这也解释了伦敦市 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 此次政府停摆源自华盛顿的党派对立，使得关键经济数据发布陷入停顿。若数据长期缺失，经济增长本 身也可能受到拖累。这不仅增加了投资者拼凑经济全貌的难度，也令美联储未来的政策路径更加不明。 美联储9月会议纪要将在下周三公布，投资者期待从中了解美联储降息考虑的细节。 尽管如此，仍有分析师指出，投资者普遍认为不必过度恐慌。华尔街多数人并不预计这场僵局会打断标 普500指数的涨势。今年以来标普500已上涨14%，屡创新高。 State Street Investment Management首席投资策略师迈克尔·阿罗恩（Michael Arone）坦言，几周前市场 还在质疑数据的准确性，现在却发现其不可或缺。 与此同时，Alternative Options首席交易员詹姆斯·科迪尔（James Cordier）担忧，如果数据荒延续至10月 中旬，他将不得不提前平仓大宗商品头寸，因为在信息真空下交易风险过大。 这一时刻对于市场来说尤为尴尬。就在不久前，美国非农就业数据意外走弱，还导致美国总统特朗普愤 然解雇美国劳工统计局局长。投资者正紧盯劳动市场，以判断美联储可能何 ...

彭博Markets Live策略师马克·克兰菲尔德（MarkCranfield）表示 ， 目前日元的看涨预期正迅速升温，因 日本央行即将开启加息、美联储计划再次降息，而自民党领袖选举还将为日本经济带来更多刺激政策。 全球资产管理公司Orbis Investment Management Ltd.则在观望：若高市早苗胜选，市场可能出现混乱， 而该公司将把这种混乱视为增持其所持资产（如内需导向型股票）的机会。 本周六，日本执政党将投票决定下任领袖人选，候选人为改革派的小泉进次郎（Shinjiro Koizumi）与右 翼倾向的高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi），当前民调结果呈现胶着状态。在此背景下，各类交易策略纷纷 浮出水面。鉴于两位候选人的政策主张存在差异，此次选举结果可能对这个亚洲第二大经济体产生长期 影响。 以对冲基金Epic Partners Investments Co.为例，该公司已做好准备：一旦尘埃落定，若股市出现任何可 能的上涨，便会趁机抛售。 "我的目标是在胜者确定后，利用市场暂时的定价偏差获利，"这家位于东京的杠杆基金首席执行官竹秀 松（Hidematsu Take）表示，"如果高市早苗 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the hype around AI and significant gains in chip stocks, gold mining stocks may present a more attractive investment opportunity this year [2] - The MSCI global gold stock index has surged approximately 135% this year, aligning with the rise in gold prices, while the semiconductor index has only increased by 40% [2] - The disparity in performance highlights a key market trend where central banks' continued accumulation of gold has attracted investor interest, even amidst the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) on AI-related assets [2] Group 2 - Gold has risen over 47% this year, reaching historical highs and is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, supported by central bank purchases, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased gold ETF holdings [2] - Among the top stocks in the MSCI gold mining index, Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) have both seen stock price increases exceeding 100% since 2025, while Zijin Mining (02899) has outperformed Alibaba (09988) with a rise of over 130% [3] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for the MSCI gold mining index is 13, lower than its five-year average, contrasting with the semiconductor index's high expected P/E ratio of 29 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic reports, including inflation, employment, and unemployment data, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [2][3][4]. Economic Reports Impact - The absence of these reports comes at a sensitive time for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, as the labor market has deteriorated since late spring, prompting the Fed to implement its first rate cut of the year [3][4]. - The release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for Friday, is uncertain, with economists predicting an addition of 50,000 jobs [4][6]. - If the shutdown continues, the October employment report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) could face significant delays, with the CPI originally set for release on October 15 [4][8]. Historical Context - Historical data from the 2013 government shutdown indicates that delayed reports can be released shortly after government operations resume, but prolonged shutdowns could complicate data collection [5][9]. - If the shutdown lasts beyond 16 days, the October employment report and CPI will be severely affected, with potential delays pushing the employment report past November 7 [6][7]. Economic Implications - A prolonged shutdown could prevent the release of the October CPI, Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), hindering the Fed's ability to assess current inflation trends [9]. - Despite the disruption in data release, historical experience suggests that government shutdowns do not significantly impact the economy itself, although extended shutdowns could increase the risk of economic fractures and misjudgments by the Fed [9][10].

预测市场显示，投资者预计此次停摆将持续10天或更长时间。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 谁还需要一个完全正常运转的联邦政府呢？显然不是美股多头。在政府停摆进入第二天的周四，三大股指均创历史最高收盘纪录。 停摆到底要持续多久才会引发投资者恐慌？ LPL Financial首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist）在周三的报告中指出，自20世纪70年代中期以来，美国共发生过50次政 府停摆，平均持续8天，而股市在停摆后1个月和3个月的平均回报率均为正值（见下图）。 特恩奎斯特写道："尽管政府停摆给市场带来了新一层不确定性，但从历史来看，停摆持续时间较短，因此对经济的影响微乎其微。投资 者通常会忽略与预算相关的干扰，更关注企业盈利、整体经济趋势及其他关键宏观经济因素。" 在Kalshi平台上，若停摆持续超过10天则触发兑付的合约交易价格为63美分，意味着市场认为该情况发生的概率为63%；若停摆超过15天 则兑付的合约，对应的概率为40%。 在Polymarket平台上，类似合约显示：停摆在10月10日至14日期间结束的概率为34%，持续超过10月15日的概率为40%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is likely to weaken the dollar further, as highlighted by top forex forecasting institutions [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The political deadlock in Washington has delayed the release of key economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the monthly non-farm payroll report [1][3]. - In the absence of economic data, the statements from monetary policymakers will become crucial for traders assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [3][4]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The dollar index has declined nearly 10% this year, and further depreciation is expected [1]. - Prestige Economics' Jason Schenker predicts that the euro-to-dollar exchange rate will rise from 1.17 to 1.19 by year-end, while the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 147 to 145 [4]. - Once the government shutdown is resolved, there is potential for a dollar rebound, but the overall trend suggests continued weakness into next year [4]. Group 3: Global Currency Reserves - The share of the dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level since 1995, with the IMF reporting a drop to 56.3% during the April to June period [4]. - This represents a decline of nearly 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter, marking a 30-year low [4].

周四，在黑海度假胜地索契举行的"瓦尔代"国际辩论俱乐部会议上，俄罗斯总统普京表示，他的部队正 在乌克兰全线推进，并说整个北约现在正与莫斯科对抗。 "现任白宫政府直接……且直言不讳地陈述其利益和愿望，没有任何不必要的虚伪。我们看 到，现任美国政府主要是由其自身利益所驱动的。我认为这是一种理性的做法。但是，请允 许我这么说，俄罗斯也保留以其国家利益为导向的权利，顺便说一句，其中之一就是恢复与 美国的全面关系。" 普京似乎将大部分责任归咎于欧洲及其不惜一切代价支持乌克兰、同时推行不负责任和危险对抗的努 力。他还点名批评了德国领导人等人的沙文主义言论，并誓言将采取严厉的"反制措施"。 如果美国总统特朗普真的批准欧洲向基辅运送"战斧"远程导弹，那么这种对俄美双边关系的乐观图景恐 怕将不复存在。 至于战场状况，普京明确表示，俄罗斯将坚定不移地推行其"特别军事行动"，并且它正占优势，每天都 在前进。"我们的部队几乎在整个接触线上都在自信地推进，"他宣称。"我们控制了卢甘斯克地区几乎 100%的地区，敌人在顿涅茨克地区控制着略多于19%的地区，在扎波罗热和赫尔松地区则分别为24- 25%。在任何地方，俄罗斯军队都自信地保持着 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is preparing to announce a list of federal agencies to be cut, with the announcement expected as early as this weekend [1] - President Trump is actively involved in discussions regarding the cuts, meeting multiple times daily with the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought [1] - The cuts are part of a broader initiative known as "Project 2025," aimed at fundamentally reducing the size of the federal government [1] Group 2 - Approximately 2 million federal employees have had their pay suspended, with around 750,000 ordered not to work, while others, such as military personnel, are required to work without pay [3] - The current government shutdown is the 15th since 1981 and has led to the suspension of various activities, including scientific research and economic data reporting [2] - The ongoing budget standoff has frozen about $1.7 trillion in agency operating funds, which constitutes roughly a quarter of annual federal spending [2] Group 3 - Trump is using the threat of job cuts to pressure opponents, which Democrats argue amounts to hostage-taking and infringes on Congress's constitutional authority over federal spending [4] - Republican leaders show little concern over the shutdown, believing that the current administration can prioritize spending as it sees fit if Congress fails to pass funding bills [4]