AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 在本月初决定下调基准利率后，美联储官员们明确表示计划暂停降息，而此次会议的纪要或将帮助投资 者判断这家央行"休眠期"的持续时长。 "我认为他们将进入一个长期暂停阶段。在通胀问题毫无改善的情况下，他们今年已经累计降息75个基 点。"前美联储高级官员、现任新世纪顾问公司（New Century Advisors）首席经济学家克劳迪娅·萨赫姆 （Claudia Sahm）表示。 美联储将于北京时间周三凌晨3点公布此次会议纪要。 政策回顾：年内三次连续降息，基准利率趋近中性区间 自9月起，美联储在连续三次会议中均宣布下调基准利率25个百分点，将基准利率区间降至3.5%至 3.75%。 美联储在12月的政策声明及经济预测中已释放出"退居观望"的信号，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布 会上进一步强调了这一观点。 "自9月以来，我们对政策立场的调整使其进入了合理的中性利率预估区间，这让我们能够根据最新数 据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡状况，妥善决定政策利率后续调整的幅度和时机。"鲍威尔在12 月降息后的新闻发布会上表示。 美联储官员认为，今年的三次降息已使该央行政 ...

周一白银价格大幅下挫，引发市场对这一贵金属年内惊艳涨势可能失速的担忧。 道琼斯市场数据显示，最活跃白银期货合约暴跌6736美元，跌幅8.7%，收于每盎司70.46美元。这一跌 幅创下该金属自1980年1月22日以来的最大单日跌幅，而就在上周五，白银刚创下历史收盘新高，并录 得史上最大单日涨幅。 白银的暴跌浪潮 "多头今日无疑受到了惊吓，"Kitco高级市场分析师吉姆·怀科夫（Jim Wyckoff）表示。他指出，鉴于白 银市场历史上波动性本就极高，资深金属交易员或许不会对此次暴跌过度恐慌，但如果抛售潮在周四元 旦假期前持续，那些在涨势后期"上车"的个人投资者和投机者可能会保持警惕。 "过去一两周进场的多头目前已处于亏损状态，正在止损离场，"怀科夫在电话采访中说。此外，他表 示，在成熟的牛市中，这类极端价格波动以及多头"燃料耗尽"的情况较为常见。 即便计入周一的暴跌，国际现货白银价格年内涨幅仍达近150%。 近期贵金属需求旺盛推动了白银的涨势，近几个月来，白银正追赶黄金的上涨步伐——黄金价格此前已 受益于全球各国央行的购金行为。 《黄金通讯》（Gold Newsletter）编辑布莱恩·伦丁（Brien Lun ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.51%, S&P 500 down 0.35%, and Nasdaq down 0.5% [4] - Tesla shares fell by 3.2%, while Micron Technology rose by 3.4% and Nvidia dropped by 1% [4] - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.71% and a trading volume of 224.5 billion HKD [5] Group 2 - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, marking a nine-day winning streak, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.49% and 0.66% respectively [6] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 2.14 trillion CNY, a decrease of 20.9 billion CNY from the previous trading day [6] - The commercial aerospace sector continued to perform strongly, with several stocks experiencing consecutive gains [6] Group 3 - Gold prices fell sharply by 4.43% to 4,331.98 USD/oz, while silver prices dropped by 8.87% to 72.14 USD/oz [7] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.55% to 57.75 USD/barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 1.27% to 61.22 USD/barrel [7] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.059% to 98.01 points [7]

Group 1 - Haitong Securities emphasizes the investment opportunity in energy leaders with production expansion and cost reduction capabilities, supported by a long-term oil price floor around $60 per barrel [1] - CITIC Securities notes that the current market is seeing significant institutional investment in A500 ETF, indicating a stable influx of funds and a potential "cross-year + spring" market rally [2] - CITIC Securities highlights the rapid development of GaN technology as a key driver for the next generation of robotics, enabling significant reductions in size and energy loss for servo drives [3] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicates limited downward space for funding rates, with DR001 approaching the lower bound of the interest rate corridor, suggesting a stable low-interest environment ahead [4] - CITIC Securities reports that the IPO process for leading private commercial rocket companies may accelerate following the release of new listing standards by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [5] - CITIC Securities predicts stable sales for the liquor industry during the 2026 Spring Festival, supported by measures taken by leading companies to manage inventory and promote sales [6] Group 3 - Galaxy Securities points out that structural characteristics of the economy remain evident, with high-end industries and related raw materials sectors being key areas of focus for investment [7] - CICC forecasts a potential turnaround year for the photovoltaic industry in 2026, with improvements in supply-demand relationships and opportunities for leading companies to return to profitability [8]

随着特朗普2.0时代的到来，市场和媒体早就做好了迎接各种"活久见"时刻的准备。 最挥之不去的画面可能便是今年7月，当时美国总统竟然真的出现在了美联储门口。特朗普拿着一份有 争议的美联储大楼装修清单，声称"一般来说"他会炒掉超支的项目经理。 问题不断 自1月以来，美联储内外的许多联邦雇员都悄悄认定，明哲保身才是上策。令华尔街松了一口气的是， 美联储最显赫的人物并没有完全销声匿迹。 美联储主席鲍威尔看起来肉眼可见的局促，他此前已提供明细解释项目并未脱轨，并强调特朗普把一栋 已经完工的大楼也算进了成本里。这位美联储主席和总统戴着配套的安全帽，僵硬地并肩站在工地上争 吵的一幕被全世界都看在眼里。 特朗普造访美联储仅仅是美国历史上的第四次。一直以来的传统是，如果央行和白宫互不干涉，双方的 信誉都会得到加强。 这一画面概括了要么在美联储内部，要么在与该金融机构密切合作的机构工作的人的紧张感。自1月以 来，他们的情绪已经发生了转变。起初，大家还乐观地认为政客们的关注点会转移（通常都是这样）。 但随着时间推移，他们已经在心理上筑起了防线，以抵御接踵而至的侮辱、审查和前所未有的批评。 在大选前夕，特朗普声称鲍威尔正在通过降低利 ...

Group 1 - The three traders, Danny Moses, Vinny Daniel, and Porter Collins, are focusing on a macro trend that they believe will pressure the US dollar by 2026 [2][3]. - Moses emphasizes that gold remains a cornerstone of his investment strategy, predicting its price will continue to rise due to the weakening status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency [3][4]. - Daniel highlights the growth potential in emerging markets, particularly in China and Brazil, and believes that these markets will outperform the S&P 500 [4]. Group 2 - Collins expresses caution regarding the valuation of gold, suggesting it may appear overvalued and could experience a pullback in early 2026 [4]. - The traders maintain a cautious outlook for the upcoming year, despite the recent bullish trend in the US stock market driven by AI [2]. - The overall sentiment among these traders indicates a belief in the continuation of currency depreciation trends, particularly against precious metals [4].

Group 1 - Copper prices are expected to achieve the largest annual increase in over a decade, with prices soaring above $12,000 per ton in December and rising over 30% in 2025, marking the highest annual increase since 2009 [2] - The demand for copper is projected to exceed mineral supply by the 2030s, driven by the transition to renewable energy, electrification of vehicles, and the construction of data centers for artificial intelligence [2] - Aging copper mine productivity is declining, and the high costs and lengthy timelines associated with bringing new mines online are contributing to supply concerns [2] Group 2 - Significant accidents at the world's largest mines since October have raised concerns about shortages, leading to record high copper prices [3] - Major mining companies have lowered production forecasts, and there has been a surge of copper imports into the U.S. as importers rush to acquire metal before potential tariffs [3] - A notable price gap has emerged between London benchmark prices and U.S. Comex copper prices, with traders capitalizing on this difference [3] Group 3 - The current tightness in the copper market is described as regional rather than global, with 85% of LME warehouse copper not qualifying for delivery to U.S. Comex facilities [4] - Despite this, traders are still moving significant amounts of metal to the U.S. due to higher domestic prices, utilizing swaps to manage non-qualifying copper [4] - This situation is expected to persist until 2026, potentially leading to shortages outside the U.S., with copper prices anticipated to remain strong in 2026 [4]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is expected to close with a gain of over 17%, driven primarily by a 26% surge in technology stocks [1] - Sanctuary Wealth's chief investment strategist, Mary Ann Bartels, compares the current market to previous bubble periods, suggesting a potential bubble formation by 2029 or 2030 [1] - The forecast for the S&P 500 index is projected to reach between 10,000 and 13,000 points by 2030, with a strong emphasis on the technology sector [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's stock has surged over 40% this year, raising its market capitalization to $4.6 trillion, making it the most valuable publicly traded company [2] - Alphabet's stock has increased approximately 65% this year, driven by interest in its TPU specialized customer chips [2] - UBS strategists predict that the AI boom and strong profit growth will support market gains through 2026, with the S&P 500's earnings per share expected to grow by about 10% [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs analysts assert that the stock market is not in a bubble, as the rise in technology stocks is attributed to actual growth rather than speculative bets [3] - The best-performing companies have strong balance sheets, and the AI sector is still dominated by a few large firms, contrasting with typical bubble scenarios [3] - There is an expectation of accelerated profit growth for the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500, supported by macroeconomic tailwinds and the easing of tariff impacts on profit margins [3]

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to meet with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, highlighting key differences in security issues regarding Gaza and other regions [1] - This meeting marks Netanyahu's sixth summit with Trump in the past year, indicating a closer relationship compared to other world leaders [1] - The ongoing ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, reached in October, remains fragile despite daily conflicts and accusations of violations [1] Group 2 - The U.S. officials assert that the "second phase" of the ceasefire will begin in January, which includes the establishment of a "peace committee" and a supervisory committee for Gaza [1] - Concerns exist regarding the composition and mandate of the proposed "international stabilization force," with no countries currently committed to sending troops [1][2] - Netanyahu is expected to emphasize the new threats from Iran, particularly regarding the rebuilding of its ballistic missile arsenal [2]

AI播客：换个方式听播客 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 周一，白银短暂超越英伟达（NVDA），成为全球市值第二大资产。这一历史性洗牌标志着资本正从科技股向实体大宗商品深度轮换。 白银的加速上涨为贵金属长达一年的涨势画上了阶段性句号。推动这一轮上涨的因素包括各国央行增持贵金属、交易所交易基金（ETF）资金流入，以及美 联储连续三次降息。借贷成本下降对不产生利息的大宗商品构成利好，交易员们预计2026年美联储将进一步降息。 "毫无疑问：我们正在见证白银市场上演一场跨代泡沫，"澳大利亚IG集团市场分析师托尼·西卡莫尔（Tony Sycamore）向彭博新闻社表示，"新建矿山需要长 达10年时间才能投产，而资本正像飞蛾扑火般涌入这场贵金属泡沫，目前根本无法判断泡沫何时会破裂。" 实物供应短缺 推动白银价格上涨的因素有两方面：长期的实物供应短缺和货币需求的复苏。 与主要作为投资品持有的黄金不同，白银年供应量中约50%用于工业应用。太阳能光伏产业的爆发式增长以及汽车行业的电气化进程，已将伦敦和纽约仓库 的白银库存消耗至数十年低点。 颇具讽刺意味的是，正是曾推动英伟达市值突破4万亿美元的人工智能（AI）热潮，加剧了白银的 ...