Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of a key labor market report, raising concerns about the reliability of official economic statistics from the Trump era [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release its monthly data as scheduled, leaving global markets and the Federal Reserve without crucial signals regarding the health of the U.S. economy [1] - The shutdown has intensified the chaos at the BLS, which has faced decades of funding cuts that hinder data collection, and the recent firing of its director after a poor employment report [1] Group 2 - In the absence of official data, the Federal Reserve is relying on alternative sources, including the "Beige Book," which compiles economic conditions through interviews and surveys [2] - The latest Beige Book indicated a weak economic picture, with consumer spending flat to declining and layoffs increasing [2] - Private data providers are gaining attention, with ADP reporting a reduction of 32,000 jobs in September, marking the largest decline in two and a half years [2] Group 3 - Economists suggest that a "stagnant" labor market is contributing to the poor employment data, with layoffs near historical lows and resignation rates at their lowest since the beginning of the year [3] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and immigration policies has led to a lack of fluidity in the job market, raising concerns among some economists [3] - Investors are also examining data from LinkedIn and Indeed for more clarity on the labor market [3] Group 4 - Indeed's daily job postings index, which tracks recruitment ads on one of the largest job sites, indicates stagnation, with job postings in September falling to the lowest level since February 2021 [4] - The labor market may appear calm on the surface, but underlying it is a lack of vitality, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring [4]

Group 1 - Senator Elizabeth Warren is urging the Trump administration to release the September employment report, which is crucial for economic data, especially given the Federal Reserve's concerns about a weak job market and rising unemployment rates [1][2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reportedly completed the collection of labor data for September, and it is likely ready for release [1][2] - The White House has attributed the government shutdown to Democrats, claiming it creates an "information vacuum" that hinders decision-making for investors, economists, and Federal Reserve officials [2][3] Group 2 - The government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic data, including the BLS's non-farm payroll report and inflation reports, which are critical for economic assessments [1][3] - The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has also been asked to suspend operations, affecting the scheduled release of trade data and GDP figures [3] - The shutdown may force investors and Federal Reserve officials to rely on alternative data sources, such as the ADP report, which indicated a surprising drop in private sector employment, suggesting ongoing weakness in the job market [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department is reportedly prepared to release non-farm payroll data despite the government shutdown, with Senator Warren urging for timely publication [9] - Federal Reserve's Logan emphasizes the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts, warning against excessive loosening of policies [9][10] - The U.S. government is expected to impact GDP due to the ongoing shutdown, with potential layoffs numbering in the thousands [9] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.61%, with significant gains in semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors, including a 12.7% rise in SMIC [5][11] - The U.S. will provide intelligence to Ukraine for targeting missile sites within Russia, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions [9][10] - Tesla reported a record Q3 vehicle delivery of 497,000 units, exceeding market expectations, although production saw a decline [14]

交易员已加大押注，认为美联储今年将再降息两次，以支撑持续疲软的劳动力市场。较低的借贷成本往往会提振无收益的黄金；同时，当美元走软时，对大 多数买家而言，黄金价格也会变得更低。 由于美国政府关门，且私营部门就业数据疲软，交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，现货黄金周四盘中再度站上3890关口，但随后持续回落，较日高跌超30美 元；现货白银盘中站上48美元/盎司，续创2011年5月来新高，此后跟随黄金走低，抹去日内涨幅。 City Index高级分析师马特・辛普森（Matt Simpson）表示："非农就业报告发布前，疲软的ADP就业数据重燃了市场对美联储降息的押注，进而压低美元汇 率。美国政府停摆也为金价上涨提供了助力。期货市场持仓情况显示，大型投机者和基金经理仍在追涨，他们的净多头头寸虽有所增加，但尚未达到极端水 平。" SKCharting.com的首席技术策略师Sunil Kumar Dixit指出，从技术面来看，黄金走势仍呈看涨态势，有望进一步延续涨势。支撑因素包括：金价在即时支撑 位3852美元上方保持稳定，且在4小时图上处于强劲的上升平行通道内运行。不过，若想进一步扩大涨幅，金价需强势突破并站稳即时阻力位 ...

这位内阁官员是在政府停摆的第二天发表上述言论的。目前，两党尚未就短期拨款法案达成一致，而这 是确保政府支出和各项运作得以持续的关键。 美国经济在年初的低迷期过后，过去两个季度的增长态势呈上升轨迹。 美国第二季度GDP按年率计算增长3.8%，据亚特兰大联储的追踪数据显示，在刚刚结束的第三季度， 美国GDP有望保持同等增速。 尽管以往的政府停摆对经济增长影响甚微，但此次若停摆时间延长，则可能造成一定损害。尤其是如果 美国总统特朗普执意推进其计划，将此次约75万名受影响的联邦员工中的相当一部分永久性解雇，那么 后果不堪设想。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）周四在CNBC的《财经早报》节目中表示，美国政府停摆 可能会损害美国的经济增长。 贝森特在直播采访中称："让政府停摆、然后拉低国内生产总值（GPD），这并非合理的商讨方式。我 们可能会看到GPD受挫、经济增长受阻，美国劳动者也会受到冲击。" 当被问及特朗普是否在考虑这一举措时，贝森特称这只是一个"噱头"。 贝森特在谈及参议院和众议院的民主党领袖时表示："参议员查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）和众议员哈 基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 两名知晓细节的消息人士于周三向路透社透露，欧盟委员会将提议把钢铁进口配额削减近一半，并将超 配额部分的关税上调至50%，此举旨在与美国和加拿大实施的关税政策保持一致。 这些措施将成为10月7日公布的钢铁行业新方案的一部分。 欧盟目前实施一项临时机制来保护其钢铁行业，一旦配额用尽，将对大多数进口产品征收25%的关税。 但根据世界贸易组织的规定，这些措施将于2026年年中到期。欧盟一直在努力以一项更永久性的机制取 而代之，并计划于下周公布该机制。 欧盟的最新举措呼应了钢铁企业一直以来的施压，后者要求将现行进口配额减半，并将超额部分的关税 从目前的25%提高到50%。他们表示，当前配额比初始水平高出26%，而市场需求却在下降。 这一税率将使欧盟与加拿大和美国保持一致，不过美国的关税并未设定进口配额。 经合组织称，2027年全球钢铁产能过剩量将达到7.21亿吨，欧盟及西方盟国正试图遏制这种产能过剩的 局面。 欧盟还在调查市场趋势，以考虑是否出台铝制品保障措施以及征收废金属出口税。 新的钢铁进口限制体系或许有助于欧盟与美国达成协议，按照7月底美欧协议的设想，它们 ...

OpenAI完成员工售股交易，估值5000亿超越SpaceX。66亿美元股份售额未达上限，知情人士称这彰显 员工对公司长期发展的信心。 据知情人士透露，OpenAI已经完成了一项交易，允许现任和前任员工以5000亿美元的估值出售价值约 66亿美元的公司股票，这使得这家ChatGPT制造商超越埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下的SpaceX公司， 成为全球估值最高的初创企业。 一位知情人士透露，OpenAI的现任及前任员工向包括Thrive Capital、软银、Dragoneer Investment Group、阿布扎比的MGX以及T. Rowe Price在内的投资者出售了约66亿美元的股票。这使得这家美国公 司的估值远超今年早些时候软银主导的融资轮中所达成的3000亿美元水平。 就业务本身而言，随着大型科技公司纷纷争夺所需资源，OpenAI在人工智能人才市场上面临的竞争日 益激烈。例如，Meta Platforms正从OpenAI及其他顶尖实验室大肆招募研究人员，组建新的超级智能;团 队，并开出高达九位数的薪酬套餐。 此次二级市场股份出售或有助于OpenAI激励员工留任，拒绝那些丰厚的薪酬邀约。 美 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 作为OpenAI的联合创始人，奥特曼与马斯克都曾谈及人工智能可能给人类带来的生存风险。然而，两 人后来反目：马斯克已提起诉讼，试图阻止OpenAI的转型，指控该公司在他协助创立这家非营利机构 时违背了对他的承诺。他声称，自2019年（即他离开OpenAI董事会的次年）接受微软数十亿美元的投 资后，OpenAI就背离了创立初衷。 就业务本身而言，随着大型科技公司纷纷争夺所需资源，OpenAI在人工智能人才市场上面临的竞争日 益激烈。例如，Meta Platforms正从OpenAI及其他顶尖实验室大肆招募研究人员，组建新的"超级智 能"团队，并开出高达九位数的薪酬套餐。 此次二级市场股份出售或有助于OpenAI激励员工留任，拒绝那些丰厚的薪酬邀约。 美国的大型初创企业通常会为员工协商股份出售事宜，以此奖励和留住员工，并吸引外部投资者。 OpenAI希望借助投资者的需求，为员工提供能反映公司发展成果的流动性。 音频由扣子空间生成 据知情人士透露，OpenAI已经完成了一项交易，允许现任和前任员工以5000亿美元的估值出售价值约 66亿美元的公司股票，这使得这家ChatGPT制 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国最高法院近日作出裁定，允许美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）留任至明年1月案件开庭审理，这 是迄今为止对美国总统特朗普解雇库克努力最具意义的一次制衡。 周三，最高法院仅用两句话发布的裁定虽未解决特朗普能否解雇库克这一核心法律问题，却为库克赢得 了关键的缓冲空间。此前，特朗普政府曾请求最高法院在下级法院就库克反抗解雇的诉讼作出裁决前将 其解职，而最高法院此前已批准过政府针对今年被特朗普解雇的其他机构委员提出的类似请求。 这一进展可能成为特朗普重塑美联储进程中的转折点，尤其是在此前金融市场和国会对这一首次解雇在 任美联储官员的举动几乎未加阻拦的情况下。 法院成特朗普掌控美联储的"唯一阻力" 今年以来，特朗普因美联储未大幅下调短期利率而对其展开猛烈抨击。央行独立性，即央行有权为实现 经济长远利益采取不受欢迎措施的自由，源于20世纪70年代的教训——当时政界对美联储的施压导致通 胀失控。 然而，这种独立性并未获得宪法的明确保护，仅依托于狭隘且脆弱的法律基础。尽管历任总统常对美联 储政策表达不满，但历史上市场、参议院和法院这三大机构力量一直制约着政府 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in formulating interest rate policy amid a weak labor market and high inflation, compounded by the potential delay in key economic data due to the government shutdown [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve's Challenges - The government shutdown may delay the release of important economic data, including the employment report, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2]. - Federal Reserve officials are concerned about whether the labor market has weakened enough to warrant recession fears, and how much they can lower interest rates without exacerbating inflation [2][3]. - Alternative data sources, such as ADP and Indeed, are being utilized to gauge labor market dynamics, but inflation-related data remains scarce [2][3]. Group 2: Divergence in Federal Reserve's Policy Actions - In the previous month, the Federal Reserve voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [4]. - The median forecast among Federal Reserve officials suggests two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, but there is significant disagreement among officials regarding the frequency of future cuts [4]. - Some officials express hesitation in making further policy adjustments due to the lack of reliable data, indicating a potential preference to maintain the current policy stance [4][5]. Group 3: Perspectives from Economists - Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve official, believes that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates again in October due to concerns about the labor market, emphasizing the difficulty in proving that the labor market is out of danger without key employment data [5]. - Economists highlight that the Federal Reserve is not making decisions blindly; they are actively seeking information and have previously navigated government shutdowns by utilizing available resources [5]. - The interruption in data releases may lead to increased market volatility, which could further influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5].