AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 周四，宁德时代股价大涨，A股涨幅一度扩大至接近6%，截至早盘收盘，报398.86元/股，再创历史新高，市值突破1.82万亿元，超越贵州茅台，仅次于工商 银行和农业银行；港股涨超5%，截至发稿报529港元/股，股价自IPO以来翻番。 今年至今，宁德时代股价已涨超50%。据分析，这一涨幅主要得益于市场对其在储能电池系统（ESS）领域主导地位的乐观预期。随着人工智能的蓬勃发 展，尤其是数据中心的电力需求激增，企业越来越多地转向ESS来管理峰值负荷并避免昂贵的基础设施升级。 据Global Market Insights Inc.的数据，ESS市场规模预计将从2024年的6687亿美元增长到2034年的5.12万亿美元，复合年增长率为21.7%。宁德时代在磷酸铁 锂电池（LFP）领域具有显著优势，这为其在ESS市场中提供了独特的竞争优势。 宁德时代股价也得益于政策利好。此前，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案(2025—2027年)》，提出2027年全国新型储能装 机规模达到1.8亿千瓦以上，带动投资约2500亿元，储能产业迎来发展机遇 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the stock market is "fairly valued," which has caused significant reactions in the stock market [2] - Concerns about the sustainability of AI trading have also been attributed to the market's weakness [2] Valuation Metrics - The CAPE ratio, designed by economist Robert Shiller, has been rising since the bull market began, reaching just below 38 at the end of August, a level not seen since the end of 2021 [4] - The CAPE ratio is calculated by dividing the S&P 500 index level by the inflation-adjusted average earnings of its constituent companies over the past ten years [4] - The S&P 500's CAPE ratio has reportedly surpassed 40 for the first time since 2000, indicating a potential market peak [4] Buffett Indicator - The "Buffett Indicator," which compares the total market value of U.S. stocks to the GDP, shows that the stock market's total value was approximately $64.5 trillion as of June, while the GDP was $23.7 trillion, resulting in a valuation of about 2.7 times GDP, the highest since March 2001 [7][8] - Analysts view this indicator as a useful measure of stock valuation, as it reflects the relationship between asset prices and economic activity [7][8] Price-to-Sales Ratio - The price-to-sales ratio for the S&P 500 reached 3.12 at the end of August, the highest level since January 2000, indicating that the index is more expensive relative to its expected sales [11] - Some analysts consider the price-to-sales ratio a more realistic measure of stock market valuation compared to net income figures, which can be manipulated [11] New Normal - Recent earnings expectations have been rising rapidly, suggesting that corporate profits may reach new historical highs in Q3, which could lead investors to accept higher valuations [14] - Analysts suggest that high valuations may represent a "new normal," as the largest U.S. companies today differ significantly from those in the 1980s and 1990s, with lower debt-to-equity ratios and reduced volatility in earnings [14]

历史，总是在万众瞩目中被改写。 当地时间9月23日，国际金价如同脱缰的野马，COMEX黄金期货价格一度冲高至3824.60美元/盎司，正 式宣告突破3800美元大关，再度刷新历史纪录。 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的讲话中，将此次降息定义为一次"风险管理"。他明确指出，促使美联储采取 行动的关键原因，是"就业市场面临的下行风险有所升高"。尽管通胀依然高于2%的目标，但劳动力市 场的疲软迹象，让美联储的天平开始向支持就业倾斜。 降息为何对黄金是重大利好？因为黄金作为不生息资产，其最大的"敌人"就是高利率。当美联储降息， 尤其是进入降息周期时，持有黄金的机会成本（即放弃持有生息资产如国债的收益）显著降低。此外， 降息通常会导致美元走软，而以美元计价的黄金对于持有其他货币的投资者来说会变得更便宜，从而刺 激需求。 更重要的是，市场对未来还有更多期待。根据美联储公布的"点阵图"，略多于半数的官员预计今年至少 还会有两次降息，意味着10月和12月可能连续动作。这种对持续宽松货币政策的强烈预期，为金价提供 了源源不断的上行动力。 三、深层逻辑：从"央行购金"到"投资者狂欢" 如果说降息是点燃黄金行情的火花，那么更深层次的燃料， ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫告诉记者，"据我们所知，特朗普总统的声明是在与（乌克兰总统）泽连斯 基沟通后发表的，显然是受到了泽连斯基所阐述的愿景的影响。这一愿景与我们对当前事态的理解形成 鲜明对比。" 他补充说，"乌克兰正被以各种可能的方式鼓励继续敌对行动，以及乌克兰可以赢回一些东西的论点， 在我们看来，是一个错误的论点……前线的动态已说明了一切。" 尽管俄罗斯在许多地区继续缓慢推进，但一段时间以来，它在乌克兰并未取得重大突破。民族主义的俄 罗斯参议员Dmitry Rogozin表示，他认为前线正处于僵局，因为装备、训练和士气上的均势，已使双方 的势头陷入停滞。 俄罗斯驳斥特朗普的"纸老虎"评论 佩斯科夫称俄罗斯的宏观经济状况是稳定的，尽管俄罗斯经济部周三公布的数据显示，今年的GDP增 长预测已从2.5%下调至1%。 俄罗斯财政部已提议提高增值税以资助军事开支。 克里姆林宫驳斥了特朗普将俄罗斯描述为"纸老虎"的说法。佩斯科夫告诉RBC电台，俄罗斯更多地是与 熊联系在一起，而非老虎，而纸熊是不存在的。 克里姆林宫周三断然驳斥了美国总统特朗普所说的、其在俄乌冲 ...

Group 1: Economic Policies and Developments - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rates have been too high for too long, indicating a shift towards a loosening cycle, suggesting that Powell should have signaled a rate cut of 100 to 150 basis points [9][11] - The U.S. has officially reduced tariffs on EU automobiles to 15%, effective from August 1, 2025 [11] - The U.S. has initiated a Section 232 investigation into imported medical devices and industrial machinery [11] Group 2: Market Performance - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.66%, closing at 97.86, while the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.152% [2][6] - Gold prices fell to a low of $3717.52 per ounce before closing at $3735.89, down 0.75% [3][6] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.76%, closing at $64.64 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.64% to $68.32, marking a near seven-week closing high [3][6] Group 3: Stock Market Movements - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.37%, with significant gains in technology stocks, particularly Alibaba, which surged by 9.16% due to its collaboration with NVIDIA [4][14] - The A-share market saw the ChiNext Index reach a three-year high, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.83% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.80% [4] - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.37%, S&P 500 down 0.28%, and Nasdaq down 0.33% [3][6]

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Powell's lack of a clear interest rate cut agenda, suggesting a need for a reduction of 100 to 150 basis points by year-end [2] - Powell acknowledged the dual risks of a weak job market and rising inflation, indicating a challenging policy environment with no risk-free path [2] - Becerra praised newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran for advocating aggressive rate cuts, noting Miran's dissent against a recent 25 basis point cut, favoring a 50 basis point reduction instead [2] Group 2 - Becerra criticized the Fed for its rigidity and called for fresh perspectives, emphasizing the importance of open-minded participation in discussions [3] - He is interviewing 11 candidates for Powell's successor, planning to submit a shortlist of 3 to 4 strong candidates to President Trump after further interviews [3] - Becerra highlighted concerns over recent employment data revisions, indicating potential internal economic issues, while focusing on the impact of economic conditions on low-income Americans [3]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has shown remarkable resilience in the face of challenges such as trade tensions, economic slowdown, and valuation concerns, achieving record highs and maintaining a long streak without significant declines [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has not experienced a 2% drop since April, marking the longest streak since July 2024, with a cumulative increase of 34% and a market capitalization rise of nearly $16 trillion [1][4]. - The index has reached 28 all-time highs this year, despite rising unemployment rates and inflation concerns [4][5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a 50 basis point reduction by 2025 being largely priced in [5][6]. - Recent fund inflows into the U.S. stock market reached nearly $58 billion in a single week, the largest weekly inflow of the year [6]. Group 3: Short Selling and Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index has defied the historical trend of poor performance in September, driven by short covering, with the most shorted stocks rising 14% this month [7][8]. - The relative strength index (RSI) for the most shorted stocks has reached its highest level since early 2021, indicating potential overbought conditions [7][8]. Group 4: Volatility and Risk Indicators - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is significantly below its ten-year average, suggesting low investor fear and complacency [9]. - There is a notable increase in net short positions on the VIX, indicating that investors are betting on continued market calm, which may signal a potential pause in the upward trend [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article questions the rationale provided by Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran for advocating significant interest rate cuts, suggesting that if his views are accepted, it would imply that the Federal Reserve, investors, and independent economists are all incorrect [2]. Group 1: Miran's Arguments - Miran supports a reduction of interest rates from the current 4%-4.25% range to approximately 2.5%, citing the impact of Trump's policy changes, including reduced immigration, lower government borrowing, and deregulation, which he believes should lead to lower long-term rates [2][3]. - He estimates that the "neutral real long-term interest rate" has decreased by over 1 percentage point due to these policy changes, predicting a potential 10% increase in the price of 10-year TIPS if yields drop to his estimated levels [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's assumptions hold, significant adjustments in market pricing would be necessary, leading to a weaker dollar and favorable conditions for the stock market, despite concerns about high stock prices [3]. - The combination of lower borrowing costs and a weaker dollar is expected to benefit the stock market, suggesting that it could rise even further if Miran's views are validated [3]. Group 3: Counterarguments and Economic Context - The article highlights potential downsides to Miran's proposed policy changes, such as labor shortages and rising wages due to immigration restrictions, which could increase inflation [4][5]. - It also points out that the effectiveness of deregulation is unpredictable and that Miran's reliance on the Taylor Rule may not fully account for current economic conditions, as other metrics suggest a higher recommended interest rate range [5]. - Current economic indicators, including a projected GDP growth rate exceeding 3% for Q3 and strong market performance, challenge the necessity for further rate cuts, indicating that the economic landscape is more robust than Miran suggests [6][7].

此外，方案鼓励我国建材企业将优势产能、绿色低碳技术及标准"走出去"，依托相关领域的先发优势， 参与并引领全球建材产业变革，为行业在结构转型中重塑价值链、培育新质生产力注入持久动力。近期 热门视频你会关注海水涌入内陆！超强台风，现场画面→特朗普：孕妇别吃"它"！股价突发巨震！世卫 组织发声→定了！就在本周日特大暴雨、海水倒灌！紧急提醒→深夜大消息！美联储，释放重要信号来 源：央视财经（ID：cctvyscj） 监制：柯成韵主编：于小曼 记者：宁坤 值得关注的是，方案还布局了"六零"示范工厂培育，以"零外购电、零化石能源、零一次资源、零碳排 放、零废弃物排放、零一线员工"为标杆，打造引领未来的建材产业样板。 建材政策转向构建现代产业体系 这次建材稳增长方案的出台，意味着行业政策正式告别单一产能调控模式，迈向以新质生产力为核心的 现代产业体系构建新阶段。 方案最突出的突破，在于搭建起多部门协同治理框架，通过打通产能调控、资源管理、环保约束与终端 市场需求的壁垒，系统性破解长期制约行业发展的"供需失衡"难题。在供给端，政策主动引导要素资源 从传统建材的同质化竞争领域退出，向绿色建材、先进无机非金属材料等新赛道集中，为 ...

本轮黄金涨势的支撑力，实则来自关键市场的强劲实物需求与"避险资金涌入"。作为全球最大黄金消费 国，中国7月非货币黄金进口量飙升至104吨，远高于五年均值。 与此同时，随着节日季开启，印度的黄金需求预计将回升。Aspect Bullion & Refinery首席执行官达尔尚 ·德赛（Darshan Desai）表示："在印度圣母节（Navratri）到来之际，国内市场有望迎来一波买盘。" 他补充称："预计持续的全球经济不确定性，将为黄金价格提供持续支撑。" 其他市场专家也维持看涨立场，称投资策略可能出现重大转向。Goldmoney创始人詹姆斯·特克（James Turk）将黄金短期目标价定为每盎司4000美元。 音频由扣子空间生成 黄金价格周一延续涨势，逼近每盎司3800美元。强劲的需求与持续的经济不确定性，进一步强化了黄金 的避险吸引力。 尽管金价已接近历史高点，但一项针对机构投资者的关键调查显示，"投机狂热"尚未形成——这意味着 涨势或仍有上行空间。 近期美国银行全球基金经理调查的数据凸显了这种谨慎情绪：39%的基金经理表示，其投资组合中黄金 配置比例仍为零。尽管这一比例较8月的47%有所下降，但仍表明黄 ...