下图为2020年以来COMEX期铜基金持仓净头寸与期货行情的表现： 以下为CFTC公布的自2025年4月以来COMEX期铜基金持仓净头寸变化数据一览： 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）公布的报告显示，截至7月29日当周，基金持有的COMEX铜期货净 多仓连续下滑至37347手。 此前临近8月1日重要关税节点，市场情绪谨慎，基金多空力量都有下滑。7月29日当周，基金多头仓位 回落至74650手，空头仓位同样回落至37303手，总持仓略有回升至228444手。伴随着美国对进口铜关税 征收范围不及预期，COMEX铜出现大幅坠落一幕，或继续打压多头信心。 ...

Core Insights - In July, U.S. primary aluminum imports decreased by 40% month-over-month, marking the first full month of President Trump's doubled import tariffs on raw aluminum [1] - The total amount of unwrought aluminum imported in July was 171,132 tons, down from 286,303 tons in June [1] - The average import volume for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 304,236 tons, with Canada accounting for 70% of total imports during this period [1] - Domestic aluminum inventories in the U.S. are reportedly decreasing at a rate of 40,000 to 80,000 tons per month, with total estimated inventories around 400,000 tons [1]

Group 1 - In July, the U.S. aluminum imports decreased by 40% month-over-month, totaling 171,132 tons compared to 286,303 tons in June, marking the first full month of increased tariffs on aluminum [1] - The U.S. maintains its aluminum tariffs at 50% despite reaching trade agreements with several countries in July [1] - The average aluminum import volume for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 304,236 tons, with Canada accounting for 70% of total imports [1] Group 2 - As of early 2025, approximately 74,900 tons of aluminum have arrived at the Port of New Orleans, with 24,900 tons through the Port of Baltimore and 35,400 tons through the Port of Los Angeles [2] - Since January 1, a total of 635,630 tons of aluminum have been received in the U.S. [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased due to slower-than-expected US job growth in July and a weaker dollar, leading traders to bet on potential Fed rate cuts [1] - As of August 1, LME three-month copper rose by $19.5, or 0.2%, closing at $9,630.5 per ton [2] - The US copper market stabilized after a significant drop, with Comex copper prices recovering by 1.6% to $4.423 per pound, or $9,751 per ton [3] Group 2 - Comex copper inventories surged by 176% from March to July, reaching a 21-year high of 233,977 tons [3] - LME available stocks more than doubled in July, hitting a three-month high of 127,475 tons [4] - The premium of Comex copper over LME prices has limited the outflow of US inventories, with the premium decreasing significantly from historical highs [5] Group 3 - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine is facing reduced copper extraction operations due to an accident, although processing facilities remain operational [5]

Core Insights - LME copper cancellation warrants initially stabilized but have since declined for three consecutive days, currently at 14,275 tons, while registered warrants have increased to 127,475 tons [1] - The exclusion of refined copper from U.S. tariffs has led to a sharp drop in COMEX copper prices, causing the price difference with LME copper to narrow significantly, hovering around parity [1] - The collapse of premiums has diminished the incentive for global copper to flow into the U.S., with expectations that LME copper inventories will continue to rise [1] Inventory Summary - As of August 1, 2025, total inventory stands at 141,750 tons, with cancellation warrants at 10.07% and registered warrants at 127,475 tons [3] - On July 31, 2025, total inventory was 138,200 tons, with cancellation warrants at 12.28% and registered warrants at 121,225 tons [3] - The trend shows a consistent increase in registered warrants and a decrease in cancellation warrants over the past week, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 阵存 | 増減 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 141750 | 1 +3,550 ↑ +2.57% | | 铝 | 462800 | 1 +1,775 1 +0.39% | | 锌 | 100825 | - -3.975 1 -3.79% | | 壇 | 209082 | 1 +390 ↑ +0.19% | | 铝 | 275325 | 4 -1.175 J -0.42% | | 锡 | 1950 | 1 +5 1 +0.26% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 我屋 | 库存 | 注册仓单 | 变动 | 注销仓单 | | 变动 | | 注销战比 下日吊比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 141750 | 127475 | T +5.16% | 14275 | 1 | -15.91% | 10.07% | 12.28% | | 铝 | 462800 | 449300 | T +0.5 ...

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive overview of domestic commodity basis data as of August 1, highlighting the differences between spot prices and futures contract prices across various commodities [1][2]. Group 1: Commodity Price Analysis - Copper shows a spot price of 78,370 CNY with a futures closing price of 78,400 CNY, resulting in a basis of -30 CNY, reflecting a slight decrease of -0.04% [1]. - Aluminum has a significant basis of -285 CNY, with a spot price of 16,450 CNY and a futures price of 16,735 CNY, indicating a decline of -1.73% [1]. - The price of rebar is reported at 3,360 CNY, with a futures price of 3,203 CNY, resulting in a positive basis of 157 CNY, which is an increase of 4.67% [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The basis for soybean meal is -120 CNY, with a spot price of 2,890 CNY and a futures price of 3,010 CNY, reflecting a decrease of -4.15% [2]. - Cotton prices have increased significantly, with a spot price of 15,260 CNY and a futures price of 13,585 CNY, resulting in a basis of 1,675 CNY, which is a notable rise of 10.98% [2]. - The price of industrial silicon has surged to 9,800 CNY, with a futures price of 8,500 CNY, leading to a basis of 1,300 CNY, marking an increase of 13.27% [2]. Group 3: Specific Commodity Insights - The price of white sugar is at 5,931 CNY, with a futures price of 5,733 CNY, resulting in a basis of 198 CNY, reflecting a rise of 3.34% [2]. - The basis for palm oil is slightly positive at 20 CNY, with a spot price of 8,930 CNY and a futures price of 8,910 CNY, indicating a minor increase of 0.22% [2]. - The price of eggs has decreased significantly, with a spot price of 3,230 CNY and a futures price of 3,484 CNY, resulting in a negative basis of -254 CNY, which is a decline of -7.86% [2].

产业通商资源部在声明中表示，将积极应对，通过实现铜出口多样化，将影响降至最低。 （文华综合） 8月1日（周五），韩国产业通商资源部表示，由于美国总统特朗普宣布对铜征收50%的关税，预计对美国的铜产品出口将下降。 ...

高盛分析师在周四的一份报告中表示，废铜贸易流量不太可能因此而改变，部分原因是"高质量废铜可能已经存放在国内了。" 大宗商品商Concord Resources研究总监Duncan Hobbs表示："如果我们把废铜市场作为一个整体来看，这里什么也看不到，因为美国在国内金属生产中已经 消耗了超过40%的废铜。" 数据显示，美国2024年出口了价值45亿美元的废铜。中国海关总署公布的数据显示，6月中国自美国进口的废铜占比从1月份的20.8%降至1%。 在周三的新关税公告中，美国白宫表示，将要求美国生产的25%高品位废铜需要在国内市场出售，以促进以废铜为原料的精炼铜国内生产。 美国目前是全球最大的废铜出口国。 特朗普政府的行政命令没有定义高品位，也没有具体说明何时开始国内使用要求，尽管美国商务部长在另一份报告中称，相关要求自2027年开始执行。 7月31日（周四），行业分析师称，旨在减少美国废铜出口限制提案不太可能产生太大影响，因为出口量已经低于该计划中的配额。 铜是电力行业、人工智能和数据中心以及电动汽车的重要材料。 （文华综合） ...

（文华综合） 智利国家统计局数据显示，智利6月铜产量为424390吨，环比出现明显回落，较上年同期下降6%。智利矿产商安托法加斯塔和智利Codelco两大矿企此前公 告上半年铜产量都较去年有所增加，不过智利整体6月产量出现下滑。 ...