北京时间17:17，LME三个月期铜下跌0.15%，报每吨9,672.5美元。 上海期货交易所（SHFE）主力期铜合约上涨0.5%，报每吨78,580元。 8月5日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜逆转稍早涨势下滑，因库存大幅增长，但智利供应担 忧限制跌幅。 一位新加坡金属交易商称，Codelco的El Teniente铜矿停产以及风险偏好回升都有助于铜价。 伦敦期铝上涨0.63%至每吨2569美元；期镍下跌0.57%至14980美元；期铅上涨0.46%至1968美元；期锡 下跌0.09%至33175美元；期锌上涨0.75%至2770美元。 沪铝涨0.5%，报20,560元；沪镍涨0.8%，报120,910元；沪铅持平，报16,775元；沪锡涨0.5%，报 267,490元；沪锌涨0.8%，报22,380元。 库存数据显示，LME铜库存增加14,275吨或10.23%，至153,850吨，创逾两个月高位。 智利国营铜业公司(Codelco)周一表示，上周地震引发塌方后，其El Teniente铜矿的地下作业仍处于暂停 状态。 （文华综合） ...

Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased to 153,850 tons, up by 14,275 tons or 10.23% from the previous day [1][4] - Registered warrants for copper rose to 141,850 tons, reflecting an increase of 11.25% [2] - The cancellation rate for copper warrants is currently at 7.80%, down from 8.65% [2] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - Aluminum inventory reached 466,025 tons, with an increase of 2,300 tons or 0.50% [1][5] - Registered warrants for aluminum are at 452,950 tons, with a cancellation of 13,075 tons, representing a 2.81% cancellation rate [2] - The aluminum inventory in Kaohsiung remains stable at 42,475 tons [5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - Zinc inventory decreased to 92,275 tons, down by 4,725 tons or 4.87% [1][9] - Registered warrants for zinc are at 48,600 tons, with a cancellation of 43,675 tons, leading to a cancellation rate of 47.33% [2] - The zinc inventory in Singapore also decreased by 4,725 tons, reflecting a similar trend [9] Group 4: Nickel Inventory Changes - Nickel inventory increased to 211,254 tons, up by 2,172 tons [1][13] - Registered warrants for nickel are at 195,384 tons, with a cancellation of 15,870 tons, resulting in a cancellation rate of 7.51% [2] - The inventory in Kaohsiung saw an increase of 1,464 tons, reaching 45,144 tons [13] Group 5: Lead and Tin Inventory Changes - Lead inventory data is not provided in detail, but it is noted that there are fluctuations in various locations [6][11] - Tin inventory decreased to 1,875 tons, down by 25 tons [1][11] - Registered warrants for tin are at 1,390 tons, with a cancellation of 485 tons, leading to a cancellation rate of 25.87% [11]

（文华综合） 国内铜现货升水有所回落，但仍然呈现升水状态，周初国内精铜社会库存累积，但幅度有限，目前仍维 持在较低位置。不过由于美国对进口铜关税范围不及预期，最近COMEX铜对LME铜价差已经回到平水 附近，市场仍在担忧后续非美地区铜库存的回升。 对于铜价走势，金源期货表示，受降息预期升温后市场风险偏好得到提振，而美元指数迅速走弱提振金 属市场；基本面上，海外精矿维持紧缺状态，国内库存小幅反弹，进口到港量持续增加，紧平衡格局依 旧但略有转松迹象，预计沪铜将进入反弹节奏。 沪铜夜盘高开震荡，日内延续偏强震荡姿态，收盘上涨0.46%。最近美联储降息预期抬升提振市场情 绪，铜市供需虽有转松迹象，但低库存状态仍提供支撑。 smm数据显示，7月smm中国电解铜产量环比大增3.94万吨，升幅为3.47%，同比上升14.21%。主要受新 投产产能利用率快速上升、前期生产受扰的冶炼厂供应恢复、硫酸价格较高弥补冶炼亏损等因素影响。 smm预计8月国内精铜产量仅小幅下降。由于海外冶炼成本更高，受极端低位的铜精矿加工费影响更 大，周一日本三菱材料公司表示，由于加工精炼费用（TC/RCs）下降对盈利造成压力，该公司正考虑 缩减其On ...

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a rise in copper inventory to a near two-year high, followed by a decline to 139,575 tons this week [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a 1.2% decrease in copper inventory, reaching a seven-month low of 72,543 tons as of August 1 [1] - International copper inventory decreased by 772 tons to 10,844 tons [1] - COMEX copper inventory increased to 261,180 tons, marking the highest level since February 2004 [1] Inventory Trends - LME copper inventory increased from 141,750 tons on August 1 to 139,575 tons, showing a downward trend [4] - SHFE copper inventory decreased from 73,423 tons on July 25 to 72,543 tons on August 1, indicating a consistent decline [4] - COMEX copper inventory rose from 259,681 tons on August 1 to 261,180 tons on August 4, reflecting an upward trend [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose by $56.5, or 0.59%, closing at $9,687.0 per ton on August 4, supported by supply concerns but limited by global economic worries [1][2] - LME copper has rebounded by 20% since hitting a 16-month low in April, but has retreated from over $10,000 in early July [3] - A mining accident in Chile's El Teniente mine, which produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, has halted operations, raising supply concerns [3] Group 2 - Mitsubishi Materials is considering reducing copper concentrate processing at its Onahama smelting and refining plant, indicating potential supply issues in Japan [3] - Recent U.S. employment data showed weaker-than-expected job growth, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, raising concerns about economic growth [3] - The U.S. unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, with significant downward revisions to previous months' job growth figures [3]

8月4日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜上涨，因担忧全球最大铜生产国智利的供应，但全球 经济前景担忧限制涨幅。 北京时间16:47，LME三个月期铜上涨0.96%，报每吨9,723美元。 智利矿业部长周日表示，官员们将确定何时可以安全地恢复该矿山的运营，该矿山去年生产35.6万吨 铜。 日本亦出现另一潜在供应问题，三菱材料公司（Mitsubishi Materials）表示，由于加工精炼费用 （TC/RCs）下降对盈利造成压力，该公司正考虑缩减其Onahama冶炼厂和精炼厂的铜精矿加工规模。 哥本哈根Saxo Bank大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示："这确实支撑价格，并帮助缓解了周五就业报告 后的一些经济增长担忧。" 上海期货交易所交投最活跃的期铜合约上涨0.1%，收报每吨78,330元。 上海金属方面，沪铝上涨0.2%，报20525元；沪镍上涨0.5%，报120630元；沪铅上涨0.5%，报16750 元；沪锡上涨0.9%，报266490元；沪锌下滑0.4%，报22255元。 LME铜价自4月触及逾16个月低点以来已反弹逾五分之一，但仍较7月初逾10,000美元的高点有所回落。 智利国家铜业 ...

Core Insights - LME aluminum inventory has reached a near three-year low on June 26, but has since entered an upward trend, with the latest inventory level at 462,800 tons, marking a four-month high [1] - SHFE aluminum inventory has also been on the rise, increasing for five consecutive weeks, with a weekly increase of 1.5% to 117,527 tons, reaching a one-and-a-half-month high as of August 1 [1] Inventory Trends - As of August 1, 2025, LME aluminum inventory stands at 462,800 tons, while SHFE inventory is at 117,527 tons [6] - The LME inventory has shown a consistent increase from 450,825 tons on July 25 to 462,800 tons on August 1, indicating a significant upward trend [6] - SHFE inventory has also increased from 103,197 tons on July 11 to 117,527 tons on August 1, reflecting a similar upward movement [6] Market Implications - Generally, a decline in inventory levels at domestic and international exchanges tends to support futures prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons, a decline of 1.53%, bringing the total to 139,575 tons [1][4] - Aluminum inventory increased by 925 tons, a rise of 0.20%, resulting in a total of 463,725 tons [1][5] - Zinc inventory fell by 3,825 tons, a decrease of 3.79%, now totaling 97,000 tons [1][9] - Tin inventory decreased by 50 tons, a drop of 2.56%, with a current total of 1,900 tons [1][11] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warehouse Receipts - For copper, registered warehouse receipts are at 127,500 tons, with a cancellation of 12,075 tons, leading to a cancellation rate of 8.65% [2][4] - Aluminum registered warehouse receipts stand at 452,225 tons, with 11,500 tons cancelled, resulting in a cancellation rate of 2.48% [2][5] - Zinc registered warehouse receipts are at 51,350 tons, with 45,650 tons cancelled, leading to a cancellation rate of 47.06% [2][9] - Nickel registered warehouse receipts total 196,770 tons, with a cancellation of 12,312 tons, resulting in a cancellation rate of 5.89% [2][13]

Core Viewpoint - The newly announced U.S. copper tariff policy is less severe than expected, imposing a 50% tariff only on semi-finished copper products while exempting refined copper products [2] Group 1: Tariff Details - Effective August 1, a 50% tariff will be applied to imports of semi-finished copper products such as copper tubes, plates, and rods [2] - Refined copper products, including cathodes and anodes, are not subject to the new tariffs, which was an unexpected outcome [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices plummeted by 20%, and the premium of New York copper prices over LME prices, which had recently reached 30%, significantly narrowed [2] - LME copper prices remained largely unaffected by the tariff news [2] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - In the medium term, there may be some support for copper prices as the U.S. continues to procure copper normally on the international market [2] - However, due to anticipated tariffs, U.S. copper inventories have been sufficiently stocked, leading to a potential decrease in short-term procurement levels [2] Group 4: Domestic Production Impact - The tariffs are expected to boost the domestic sales of semi-finished copper products, aiming to enhance the output of U.S. copper smelters [2] - If domestic production costs are significantly higher than those of regular suppliers, the tariffs could negatively impact U.S. copper production levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing limited support from supply and demand dynamics, with a slight increase in prices despite weak economic data from the U.S. and a seasonal decline in domestic demand [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] - The unexpected weakness in U.S. employment data has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a temporary rebound in copper prices [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for July was reported at 48, below expectations, while domestic manufacturing PMI also showed a month-on-month decline, further pressuring copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have stabilized and slightly increased, but there are disruptions from overseas copper mines [1] - Chilean copper giant Codelco has halted operations at its flagship El Teniente mine due to a collapse, which may impact future production levels [1] - There is an expectation of rising LME copper inventories and domestic copper inventories, as U.S. import tariffs on copper are less extensive than anticipated [1]