英美资源位于秘鲁南部的Quellaveco铜矿自2022年开始运营以来，已生产了100万吨铜，这标志着南美 最新铜矿之一的一个重要里程碑。 该公司将矿场的出色表现归功于其专注于安全、可靠性和技术的策略。Quellaveco完全依靠可再生能源 供电，并且是秘鲁首个采用自主钻探和运输车队的矿场。一个远程操作中心以及先进的处理系统旨在加 强日常管理，并保持长期的高效运行。 Quellaveco铜矿很快达到了其设计产量，该矿的预期开采寿命为36年，在其运营的前10年，年产能为30 万吨。随着公司表现的持续提升，该矿在2023年和2024年均交付了超过30万吨的铜。 （文华综合） Quellaveco铜矿有望在2025年生产31万-34万吨铜。英美资源表示，这一产量水平每年可以为500多万辆 电动汽车提供足够的铜。 公司高管将这一产量里程碑视为可持续采矿的的基准，他们指出该矿场的碳排放量低，并且通过采用自 动化技术提高了安全性和生产效率。 随着全球人口增长、城市扩张以及各经济体推动减排，铜需求继续攀升。英美资源集团估计，到2040 年，全球将需要相当于60个新的Quellaveco规模的矿山来满足未来的需求。 ...

Core Insights - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, warned that several nickel smelters in Indonesia may halt production if nickel ore supply remains tight [1][2] - Indonesia, holding about 45% of the world's nickel reserves, is facing a supply-demand imbalance as domestic nickel ore supply has not kept pace with the rapid expansion of smelting facilities [1][2] - The country is projected to import over 10.4 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024, with expectations to increase to approximately 15 million tons in 2025 [1] - The nickel price may surge due to tight supply, leading to high production costs and potential shutdowns of smelting plants, which could also hinder investments in Indonesia's battery and electric vehicle sectors [1] - The nickel export ban implemented in 2020 has attracted investments in Indonesia's downstream nickel industry, with smelting capacity expected to reach 1.8 million tons of secondary nickel and about 395,000 tons of primary nickel by 2024 [1] Industry Dynamics - Indonesia currently holds over 60% of the global nickel market share, becoming a significant player in the stainless steel and battery materials sectors [2] - The government has shortened the effective period of mining production quotas (RKAB) from three years to one year, tightening domestic supply amid increasing demand from smelting plants [2] - The imbalance between mineral supply and industrial demand is worsening due to the rapid expansion of smelting facilities and the shortened planning cycle for mining operations [2] - To alleviate the tight nickel ore supply, Arif urged the Indonesian government to prioritize the approval of RKAB applications for mines associated with smelting plants and to enhance exploration efforts and mining technology capabilities [2] - A solid upstream planning is essential to avoid the absurd situation of relying on imported nickel ore, ensuring that local industries in this resource-rich country do not face raw material shortages [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects copper prices to continue rising into next year due to ongoing mine disruptions leading to tighter supply and strong long-term demand driven by electrification and clean energy investments [1][2] Group 1: Price Forecast - UBS raised its copper price forecast for March 2026 by $750/ton to $11,500/ton, with June and September targets increased by $1,000/ton to $12,000/ton and $12,500/ton respectively, and a new December 2026 target of $13,000/ton [1] - The firm adjusted its market supply deficit forecast, increasing the 2025 deficit from a previous estimate of 53,000 tons to 230,000 tons, and the 2026 deficit from 87,000 tons to 407,000 tons [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - UBS highlighted that this year's mining operational disruptions, including issues at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slow production recovery in Chile, and ongoing protests in Peru, underscore structural supply constraints that may persist until 2026 [1] - Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to resume production at the Grasberg mine by July [1] Group 3: Demand Growth - The firm projects global copper demand to grow by 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, primarily supported by electric vehicles, renewable energy, grid investments, and data center demand [2] - UBS stated that any weakness in copper prices should be temporary, recommending maintaining long positions in copper or employing volatility selling strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX copper inventory has surpassed 400,000 short tons for the first time, driven by arbitrage trading attracting copper inflows into the U.S. [1] Group 1: Inventory and Price Dynamics - As of November 21, COMEX copper inventory reached 402,876 short tons, more than tripling since the beginning of the year and breaking the previous record of 399,458 short tons set in January 2003 [1] - Current LME copper price is approximately $10,780 per ton, while COMEX copper price is about $5 per pound, equivalent to around $11,023 per ton, indicating a profitable arbitrage opportunity for transporting copper to the U.S. [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The surge in inventory began in March as traders rushed to ship copper to the U.S. before the planned import tariffs, although refined copper was ultimately exempted from the 50% tariff effective August 1 [1] - U.S. copper import policies are still under review, and inventory continues to rise, with traders stockpiling metal in anticipation of potential future tariffs on refined copper [1] - According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the refined copper consumption in the U.S. for 2024 is projected to be 1.58 million tons, meaning that the current COMEX inventory represents nearly a quarter of the country's annual demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Harmony Gold has approved an investment of $1.55 to $1.75 billion for the development of its copper mining project in Australia, diversifying its operations amid rising gold mining costs in South Africa [1] Group 1: Investment and Project Details - The investment will be implemented in phases over three years, funded by internal cash flow and capital-efficient debt instruments [1] - The Eva copper project, acquired in 2022, is expected to produce approximately 65,000 tons of copper concentrate annually in the first five years, averaging 60,000 tons of copper and 19,000 ounces of gold per year over a 15-year lifespan [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Production Expectations - Production is anticipated to commence in the second half of 2028, coinciding with a projected supply gap in copper, which is expected to support rising copper prices [1] - The CEO stated that combined production from the recently acquired MAC Copper project and the Eva copper project is expected to reach around 100,000 tons of copper annually [1] Group 3: Strategic Rationale - The project is positioned to benefit from strong copper fundamentals and the current robust gold price, presenting significant upside potential [1] - The long-term outlook for copper and gold is positive, with the Eva copper project expected to generate strong cash flow and substantial profits while reducing overall risk [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices stabilized on November 24, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the US next month and a weaker dollar [1][4] - On November 24, LME three-month copper closed at $10,773.00 per ton, down $4.50 or 0.04%, after reaching a historical high of $11,200 on October 29 due to supply concerns [1][2] - The dollar has been under pressure since comments from New York Fed President Williams indicated that the Fed could lower rates without jeopardizing inflation targets, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from 40% to 75% [4] Group 2 - The weakening dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially boosting demand [4] - Technical analysis indicates that copper's resistance level is near the 21-day moving average at approximately $10,836, with support around $10,625, the 50-day moving average [4] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that while copper prices may remain capped at $11,000 per ton in the 2026/2027 fiscal year due to oversupply, a supply shortage is expected later in the decade driven by resource constraints and increased demand from key industries [4]

Core Insights - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, warned that several nickel smelters in Indonesia may halt production if nickel ore supply remains tight, despite Indonesia holding about 45% of the world's nickel reserves [1][2] - Indonesia is expected to import over 10.4 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024, with projections rising to approximately 15 million tons in 2025 due to increased demand from smelters [1] - The nickel export ban implemented in 2020 has significantly attracted investments in Indonesia's downstream nickel industry, with smelting capacity expected to reach 1.8 million tons of secondary nickel and about 395,000 tons of primary nickel by 2024, a substantial increase from just 250,000 tons of secondary nickel in 2017 [1] Industry Dynamics - Indonesia currently holds over 60% of the global nickel market share, becoming a key player in the stainless steel and battery materials sectors [2] - The government has shortened the validity of mining production quotas (RKAB) from three years to one year, tightening domestic supply amid soaring demand from smelters [2] - Arif urged the government to prioritize the approval of RKAB applications for mines associated with smelters and to enhance exploration efforts and mining technology capabilities to address the supply-demand imbalance [2] Price Trends - As of the latest assessment, the price of Indonesian nickel pig iron with 10% nickel content is $108.50 per ton, reflecting a decrease of $0.50 per ton from the previous day and a drop of $5.6 per ton since November 3 [2]

Core Insights - The UK government has launched a critical mineral strategy to reduce reliance on foreign supplies by 2035, aiming for 10% of domestic demand to be met by UK production and 20% from recycling [1] - The strategy is supported by up to £50 million in new funding and aims to ensure that no single country supplies more than 60% of any critical mineral by 2035 [1] - Current domestic production of critical minerals in the UK meets only 6% of its demand, with a focus on increasing the mining and processing of lithium, nickel, tungsten, and rare earth elements [1] Industry Demand - The UK urgently needs a secure and long-term supply of critical minerals, which are essential for smartphones and electric vehicles, and increasingly important for data centers powered by artificial intelligence [1] - Demand for basic materials in the UK is expected to surge, with copper consumption projected to nearly double and lithium demand expected to increase by 1,100% by 2035 [1] International Collaboration - Earlier this year, the UK and Saudi Arabia reached a mineral cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening supply chains and attracting new investments into the UK [2]

Group 1 - Copper prices experienced a slight increase due to rising expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, following dovish signals from officials [1][3] - The three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by $9.5 or 0.09%, closing at $10,785.50 per ton [1] - The Shanghai copper futures for January saw a gain of 80 yuan or 0.9%, closing at 86,080 yuan per ton [2] Group 2 - Analysts noted a decline in speculative interest in copper due to a lack of strong market drivers, with prices hovering at high levels after a retreat from record highs [3][4] - Codelco announced a partnership with India's Adani Group for copper exploration projects in Chile [4] - Freeport Indonesia's CEO indicated a production plan of 478,000 tons of cathode copper and 26 tons of gold by 2026, which is lower than initial plans due to recovery work from a mudslide incident [4] Group 3 - Technical analysts suggest that LME copper may test resistance levels between $10,846 and $10,899 this week, with a potential rise towards $10,970 if these levels are breached [4] - Other metals on the LME also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up $20 or 0.72%, zinc rising 0.57%, lead increasing by 0.2%, and tin up 0.91% [4] - In contrast, Shanghai aluminum, zinc, and lead futures experienced declines, while nickel and tin futures saw increases [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventory levels for various metals, indicating fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics in the market. Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 725 tons, reaching a total of 155,750 tons, reflecting a rise of 0.47% [1] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons, totaling 545,950 tons, which is a decline of 0.37% [1] - Zinc inventory saw an increase of 100 tons, bringing the total to 47,425 tons, marking a rise of 0.21% [1] - Lead inventory remained unchanged at 2,53482 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.18% in registered warrants [1] - Tin inventory remained stable at 3,085 tons, with no change reported [1] Warehouse Specific Changes - In the copper category, the registered warrants decreased by 16.60% to 5,525 tons, while the total inventory increased by 1.23% [2] - For aluminum, the registered warrants increased by 7.99% to 61,850 tons, while the total inventory decreased by 1.35% [2] - Zinc registered warrants decreased by 13.99% to 3,075 tons, with a total inventory increase of 1.37% [2] - The aluminum category showed a significant registered warrant percentage of 54.94%, indicating a high level of inventory tied up in warrants [2] Location-Based Inventory - Specific locations such as Kaohsiung and Rotterdam reported varying changes in inventory levels, with Kaohsiung's copper inventory increasing by 1,800 tons [4] - The aluminum inventory in locations like Klang and Kaohsiung showed consistent levels, while Rotterdam's registered warrants saw a significant increase [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 375 tons, while Kaohsiung's inventory increased by 450 tons [9] Summary of Registered and Cancelled Warrants - The overall trend indicates a mixed performance across different metals, with some experiencing increases in inventory while others face declines in registered warrants [2][4][5]