Core Insights - African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) is making a significant investment in the copper sector by establishing a joint venture with Newmont Corporation in Papua New Guinea, which is expected to be one of the largest investments in critical minerals [1] - ARM's chairman, Patrice Motsepe, emphasizes that this investment aligns with global decarbonization trends and the increasing demand for copper, positioning ARM as a participant in the transition to a low-carbon world [1] - ARM has 13 billion rand in cash and an additional 7 billion rand in undrawn credit, with a substantial portion earmarked for copper-rich regions like Australia and Papua New Guinea [1] Investment Strategy - ARM is seeking to invest between 4 to 5 billion dollars in Papua New Guinea through its partnership with Newmont [1] - Harmony Gold Mining Company, influenced by Motsepe's 10.9% stake, is also shifting its focus towards the copper industry, aiming to transform into a global producer of gold and copper [2] Market Dynamics - Copper is essential for electric vehicles, technology, water, renewable energy, and grid infrastructure, making it a key component in energy transition and decarbonization [3] - Despite a sluggish copper industry in South Africa, production increased by 6.7% year-on-year in July, with copper sales rising by 19.7% [3] - The South African government emphasizes the need to redefine the mining sector, with key minerals like copper, manganese, nickel, and platinum forming the backbone of new industrial strategies for green manufacturing and battery value chains [4] Future Projections - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that demand for copper in clean energy technologies will double by 2040 due to the expansion of grids, electric vehicles, and renewable energy systems [4] - The copper market in Africa is expected to reach 3 million tons by 2035, with analysts warning that this figure could rise to 6.5 million tons [4] - Without the commissioning of new large mines, a supply shortage is anticipated in the early 2030s, highlighting the importance of ARM and Harmony's overseas copper operations for maintaining competitiveness [5]

印尼自由港公司（Freeport Indonesia）首席执行官Tony Wenas周一表示，因泥浆溃涌事故后的恢复工作 仍在进行中，该公司计划在2026年生产47.8万吨阴极铜和26吨黄金，低于其最初计划。 9月8日发生的Grasberg Block Cave矿（GBC）泥浆溃涌事故造成七人死亡。 Wenas表示："我们将继续恢复Grasberg Block矿，目标是在明年第一季度重启运营。" 印尼自由港公司预计，2025年铜销售为53.7万吨，黄金销售为33吨。 （文华综合） 印尼自由港公司已经下修明年的生产计划。该公司最初目标是生产约70万吨铜和45吨黄金。 该公司预计，明年的销售收入为83亿美元，仅略低于之前85亿美元的目标，因该公司预计铜和黄金价格 将走高。 该公司2025年铜销售额预计也将较最初计划低30%，黄金销售减少50%，不过由于铜价上涨，收入可能 仅下降18%。 ...

Core Insights - Codelco has signed an agreement with India's Adani Group to explore copper mining projects in Chile [1] - The agreement includes the evaluation of three copper projects and establishes a framework for potential joint development [1] - The non-binding agreement between Codelco and Adani's subsidiary Kutch Copper involves the exchange of technical and legal information regarding the three copper projects [1] - Adani's CEO Vinay Prakash emphasized the establishment of a cross-border cooperation model to ensure a long-term supply of copper for India [1] - Codelco, as the world's largest copper producer, is actively enhancing international collaboration [1]

最近铜价偏弱震荡，期价重心较前期高位略有回落，下游需求有所好转，现货维持升水局面，社会库存 也出现小幅去化。金瑞期货表示，近期下游反馈铜价回落后，消费表现有所改善，但幅度和持续性有待 观察，对价格有一定敏感性，国内平衡暂未明显去库。展望后市，近期宏观驱动趋于缓和，基本面目前 矛盾不大，消费表现不强，尚未兑现矿山导致的非美去库，预计短期价格重心保持高位震荡。 （文华综合） 沪铜早间小幅高开，日内持续偏强震荡，收盘微涨0.09%。最近宏观情绪有所缓和，铜市矿端紧张担忧 仍在，最近价格回落需求略有好转，但仍需关注持续性。 印尼自由港公司首席执行官Tony Wenas周一表示，因泥浆溃涌事故后的恢复工作仍在进行中，该公司计 划在2026年生产47.8万吨阴极铜和26吨黄金，低于其最初计划。该公司最初目标是生产约70万吨铜和45 吨黄金。目前国内铜精矿现货加工费徘徊在-41美元/干吨附近，参与者普遍等待Benchmark年终谈判结 果。 ...

Group 1 - The global refined copper market experienced a deficit of 51,000 tons in September, contrasting with a surplus of 41,000 tons in August [1] - For the first nine months of the year, the market showed a surplus of 94,000 tons, down from a surplus of 310,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - In September, global refined copper production was 2.37 million tons, while consumption was 2.42 million tons [1] Group 2 - After adjusting for changes in inventory at Chinese bonded warehouses, a deficit of 50,000 tons was reported in September, compared to a surplus of 47,000 tons in August [2] - China, as the largest copper consumer globally, faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, excess capacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [3]

11月21日（周五），欧洲铜制品制造商警告称，除非欧盟采取行动限制废铜出口，就像限制废铝出口那 样，否则他们将面临严重短缺。 大量精炼铜被投资者运往美国，他们被基于关税预期的更高价格所吸引。 "废铜和阴极铜短缺将会对半成品制造商构成严重威胁。" 阴极铜是由精炼铜制成的薄板，制造商利用铜来生产各种半成品，如电线、管材和棒材。 欧盟委员会周二宣布了相关计划，旨在限制欧盟对废铝的出口，以防止这种金属大量流出欧盟区域。 Schmidt表示，欧盟对铜业采取同样的措施也是合乎逻辑的。 （文华综合） 德国金属制品生产商威兰德（Wieland）的高管Uwe Schmidt表示："让我感到不安的是，明年欧洲存在 阴极铜短缺的高风险。" ...

11月21日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜自逾两周低点反弹，因美国降息希望重燃，提振市 场情绪。 伦敦时间11月21日17:00(北京时间11月22日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨39美元，或0.36%，收报每吨 10,777.5美元。盘中一度下跌1.2%，至每吨10,607.50美元，创下11月5日以来的最低水平。 洋山铜溢价已从本周初触及的四个月低点每吨32美元回升至34美元，这是衡量最大金属消费国中国铜进 口需求的指标。 国际铜研究组织（ICSG）称在最新月度公报中指出，全球精炼铜市场9月出现5.1万吨缺口，而8月尚有 4.1万吨盈余。 该机构称，今年前九个月市场呈现9.4万吨盈余，而去年同期盈余达31万吨。 LME三个月期镍下跌46美元，或0.32%，收报每吨14,455.0美元，盘中曾触及七个月新低。 （文华综合） | | 11月21日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,777.50 1 | +39.00 ↑ +0.36% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,786.00 | ...

数据来源：海关总署 海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国10月精炼铜出口量为65945吨，同比增加逾五倍，环比大增近1.5倍。 9月底出口窗口就有所打开，国内冶炼厂积极布局出口计划，10月份铜价继续上探，国内需求受到抑 制，国内精炼铜出口量大增。 （文华综合） ...

数据来源：海关总署 据中国海关数据统计，中国2025年10月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量为11,632.30吨，环比增加33.51%，同比 减少22.36%。当月从刚果（金）进口锡矿砂及其精矿2,700.36吨，环比上升124.16%，同比下降7.43%。 缅甸锡矿供应恢复缓慢，当月从缅甸进口锡矿砂及其精矿2,366.81吨，环比减少24.55%，同比减少 61.61%。 （文华综合） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that China's copper scrap imports in October reached 196,600 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 6.81% and a year-on-year increase of 7.35% [1] - From January to October, the total copper scrap imports amounted to 1,895,600 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.99% [1] - The top four sources of copper scrap imports in October were Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia, indicating favorable import conditions and increased domestic demand [1]